The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (ppt final v.3)

The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook

ASEAN Energy Outlook:
Regional energy demand and supply outlook up to 2030

 The 1st in 2006, The 2nd in 2009, and The 3rd in 2011
 Joint output by ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), the Institute
of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), and National ESSPA Teams
 Part of Energy Supply and Security Planning in the ASEAN
(ESSPA) Program, funded by Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry (METI) of Japan
 The methodology applied for forecasting was econometric
and used an engineering based model with software
MICROFIT and LEAP

©ACE, February 2011

The 1st Outlook:
First version of the outlook

 Published in February 2006
 Cover only 6 ASEAN Member States (-CLMV)
 First consideration for improvement of
estimated energy demand functions and
structure of simulation model
 Projection Scenarios:
1. Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario
Used historical trends (1980 to 2000) of
GDP, GVA, population, number of vehicles
in forecasting their future values
2. High GPD Growth Scenario
Used the high target of GDP growth rates
from each ASEAN Member Countries


The 2nd Outlook:
Country set High GPD Growth Scenario
 Published in March 2009
 Cover all 10 ASEAN Member States
 Update of the 1st Outlook, enriched with more
precise details: break-down of petroleum
products, incorporation of refinery process,
treatment of indigenous production, and so on
Used historical trends (1980 to 2000) of
GDP, GVA, population, number of vehicles
in forecasting their future values
2. High GPD Growth Scenario
Used the high target of GDP growth rates
from each ASEAN Member Countries


The 3rd Outlook:
Energy Efficiency as Alternative Scenario

 Published in July 2011
 Cover all 10 ASEAN Member States
 Enriched with an analysis of an alternative
energy development path
Base on GDP Growth Targets of the 10
Member States
2. Alternative Policy Scenario
Base on Energy Saving Goals and Action
Plans of 10 Member States in primary
energy demand and CO2 emissions


The Context:
ASEAN would barely meet its future energy requirement

 The world economy is moving from a post-crisis recovery but
Southeast Asia would move faster – how does it the affect
global energy demand growth?
 Energy Efficiency is the most effective way of meeting future
demand - but are current plans effective enough?
 Coal and Natural gas production are greater than current
consumption – but would there be enough in the future?
 Vietnam will join Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand dominate
the regional energy future – but where will their policy
decisions lead us?


Socio-economic Assumptions:
GDP and Population Growth Rates (2007-2030)*

Country GDP Population  GDP Projections is
Growth
slightly lower than on
Brunei Darussalam 2.6% 2.1%
the previous outlook
Cambodia 6.9% 1.3%
due to global
Indonesia 6.3% 1.1%
economic crisis, but
Lao PDR 7.5% 1.7%
ASEAN keep going
Malaysia 5.0% 1.6%
above the world
Myanmar 9.0% 1.7%
average
Philippines 4.9% 1.4%
Singapore 3.9% 0.7%
Thailand 4.1% 0.3%
Vietnam 7.5% 0.9%
*Source: 10 ASEAN Member States
ASEAN 5.2% 1.1%

Oil Price Assumption:
Base on Japan CIF

The world is facing escalating oil price, double than today in 2030


Alternative Policy Scenario:
1. EE&C Targets
Brunei Darussalam 25% EI from 2005 level by 2030

Cambodia 10% TFEC all sector

Indonesia 1%/year TFEC from BaU

Lao PDR 10% TFEC all sector

Malaysia 10% TFEC Industrial, Commercial and Residential from 2011 to 2030
1.39 ktoe TFEC Transportation by 2030
Myanmar 5% TPEC by 2020 and 8% by 2030 compare to BaU
Improve 16% Energy Efficiency in all end-use
Philippines 10% TFEC all sector

Singapore 20% EI by 2020 and 35% by 2030 from 2005 level
Cap 63 Mt-CO2 by 2020
Thailand 25% total energy by 2030 compare to BaU

Vietnam 3%-5% TFEC by 2010 and 5%-8% by 2010-2015


2. RE and Biofuels Targets
Brunei Darussalam 10 MW PV by 2030 No target

Cambodia 1.5 MW PV, 87 kW Biomass, 500 kW Micro-hydro No target

Indonesia Energy Mix by 2025: 5% Geothermal, 2.6% hydro, +5% biofuels
0.03% wind, 0.74% biomass
Lao PDR Hydro project No target

Malaysia By 2030: 1340 MW Biomass, 410 MW Biogas, 490 5% for road transport
MW Mini-hydro, 854 MW Solar, 390 MW Municipal
Solid Waste
Myanmar 15%-20% RE in Electricity Generating 8% for road transport

Philippines New by 2030: 1,500 MW Geothermal, 2,100 MW Displace 15% of diesel and
Hydro, 950 MW, 71 MW PV, 102 MW Biomass 20% of gasoline by biofuels
Singapore 5% PV in Energy Mix No targets

Thailand 6,329 MW of RE 12.2% for transport

Vietnam By 2030: 2100 MW Wind, 2400 MW Hydro, 400 MW No targets
Biomass


3. Nuclear Energy Targets
Brunei Darussalam No target

Cambodia No target

Indonesia 1.4% nuclear of energy mix by 2025

Lao PDR No target

Malaysia 2,000 MW by 2023

Myanmar No target

Philippines 2,000 MW by 2025

Singapore No target

Thailand Develop 5,000 MW from 2020 to 2028

Vietnam 1,000 MW by 2020, increase to 10,1000 MW by 2030


Final Energy Consumption:
By Sector

Will grow 195% (BaU), driven by fast growth of transport sector and increasing per
capita income. But, in APS, Transport demand will be 22.4% lower, Industry 19.3%,
and Other sectors 14.5% (In total APS demand will be 17.2% lower than BaU).


Final Energy Consumption:
By Fuel Type

Oil will remains as the most used fuel ≈ 45% share by 2030 (both in BaU and APS).
By 2030, in the APS, the oil demand can be reduced by around 18.6%, coal 20.3%,
electricity 17.4%, and natural gas 12.6% from BaU.


Primary Energy Supply:
RE shines, but Fossil Fuels keep its dominance

Coal will have the highest growth as demand increases in Industry and Power
Generation, but due to Transport use Oil will keep its dominance. Geothermal rise in
Indonesia and Philippines, hydropower in Great Mekong Sub-region, and Nuclear in
Thailand and Vietnam. APS TPES will be 18.5% lower than that of BaU by 2030.

Power Generation:
Coal and Gas will continue to form bulk of supply

Projected to increase 4x by 2030, Coal and Natural Gas will remain as the backbones
of regional electricity generation. The role of oil will become minimal due to
diversification programs in favor of alternative fuels and renewable energy.


CO2 Emission:
High Growth, ASEAN should reduce a lot

High annual escalation of demand for Coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, will
drive CO2 emission growth at 5.7% per year. Reduced demand in the APS due to
EE&C and alternative fuels can reduce CO2 emission to about 697 Mt-C, 24%
lower than the 895 Mt-C in BaU.

Energy Intensity:
Increase regional living standard

Improvement in fuel mix where natural gas comes more dominant as feedstock for power
generation and improvements in energy efficiency, will reduce energy intensity (EI) by
almost 50% by 2030 (APS). Due to economic growth resulting in improved living
standards will increase energy use per capita at 3.4% per year (BaU)

Country Energy Share:
Vietnam will be one of the major consumers in the future

By 2030, due to its projected high economic growth, Vietnam will be one of
the major energy consumers in Southeast Asia with its TPES annual
growth rate of 6.3%.


Energy Efficiency:
Recent plans would make a difference but are they enough?

Energy saving goals set by the governments of the 10 ASEAN Member States; energy
efficiency and conservation, nuclear energy, renewable energy including biofuels
would be able to reduce primary energy consumption. Indonesia: reduce 25%,
Thailand 22%, Malaysia 21% and Brunei 20%.

Renewable Energy:
Will increase but not fast enough

Although Other energy (mostly biomass and renewable energy such as bio-fuels,
wind, solar, etc) would be increasing, it will have a slower growth rate of 1.7%
per annum than the other types of energy. By 2030, its share in Total Primary
Energy Consumption will only be 13.4% share, compare with the 23.5% in 2007.

Implications:
Challenges facing energy security

 As member countries continue to pursue their economic
goals, primary energy consumption and CO2 emission in
region will increase three folds – increasing pressure on
energy security and global environmental stability.
 If current levels of energy production do not increase – the
region will have to source out energy supply from outside.
 Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs,
low emission technology, and increased shares of non-fossil
fuels in Power Generation - would be needed to reduce
carbon intensity and enhance energy security.


Policy Recommendations:
Facing energy security risks

 Encourage more aggressive energy efficiency and
conservation measures i.e modal shift in transportation
sector, highly efficient clean coal technology, CDM projects,
etc.
 Formulating mechanisms/regulations to remove subsidies to
fossil fuel energy and provision of incentives to encourage
further development of renewable energy, hydrocarbon
resource potential as well as nuclear energy.
 Establishing energy management systems and energy
efficiency standards.
 Strengthening regional cooperation especially in sharing best
practices in energy development and utilization.


The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (ppt final v.3)

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