Resilient city and seismic risk: a spatial multicriteria approach Lucia Tilio, Beniamino Murgante, Francesco Di Trani, Marco Vona, Angelo Masi - University of Basilicata

1. GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, URBAN MODELING, SPATIAL STATISTICS 2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk:
A Spatial Multicriteria Approach
Lucia Tilio, Beniamino Murgante, Francesco Di Trani,
Marco Vona, Angelo Masi

2. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
summary
Facing with disasters
Risks
Management
Vulnerability and Resilience
Resilient City
A spatial Multicriteria approach
Conclusion and directions

3. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

4. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Messina, 28 december 1908
S. Giuliano, 31 october 2002
L’Aquila, 6 April 2009
Potenza, 23 november 1980
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

5. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Need to be
SuperHeroes
???

6. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
No!need to
be normal
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

7. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Decision
makers
…and to act!
Common
scientists people
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

8. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
forecasting assessment
… prevention
Risks
Management
post-
protection
emergency
emergency
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

9. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Exposure
Hazard
Vulnerability
Risk
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

10. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Hazard
Global map, Giardini, Gryintal, Shedlock, Zhang, 1999
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

11. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Exposure
Population density (people per km2) by country, 2006
Miguel Contreras, lala land, 2007
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

12. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Vulnerability
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

13. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Structural vulnerability
Vulnerability
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

14. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Structural vulnerability
Vulnerability
Urban vulnerability
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

15. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
to Minimize
Urban
Vulnerability
to Maximize
Urban
Resilience
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

16. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Resilience
System state
Se And then
?
Td time
Se = Equilibrium State
Td = Disaster
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

17. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Resilience
Planned
preparation
Spontaneous
adjustments
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

18. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Resilience
Social aspects
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

19. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Resilience
Resilience is capacity of a system, community or society potentially
exposed to hazards to adapt by resisting or changing in order to reach
and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure
and is determined by the degree to which the social system is capable
of organizing itself to increase its capacity of learning from past
disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction
measures.
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

20. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Human communities Resilient City
Physical Systems
Public Buildings
Bridges
Citoyens
Associations Institutions
Buildings
Lifelines
Roads Organizations Strategic Buildings
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

21. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Resilient City
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

22. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Resilient City
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

23. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Resilient City:
how to
identify?
In Marsicovetere, Basilicata Region,
South of Italy
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

24. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
Marsicovetere
(e Villa d’Agri)
Important town in the Valley, “Val d’Agri”
Seismic Area
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

25. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
spatial multicriteria
model
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

26. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
a raster model
pixels are the decisional
alternatives
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

27. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
criterion maps
Accessibility
a pixel is as better as it is
closer to road network
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

28. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
criterion maps
Slope
a pixel is as better as
its slope is low
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

29. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
criterion maps
Proximity
to urban area
a pixel is as better as it is
closer to urban area
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

30. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
criterion maps
Proximity to
strategic
buildings
a pixel is as better as it is
closer to strategic buildings
(e.g. hospitals)
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

31. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
criterion maps
Distance from
hydrographic
network
a pixel is as better as it is
further to hydrographic
network
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

32. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
criterion maps
Structural
Vulnerability
a pixel is as better as it
its vulnerability is low
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

33. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
criterion maps
Structural
Vulnerability
Marsicovetere
Villa d’Agri
a pixel is as better as it
its vulnerability is low
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

34. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
criterion maps
Structural
Vulnerability
a pixel is as better as it
its vulnerability is low
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

35. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
criterion maps
High Seismic
Hazard Areas
a pixel is as better as
its seismic hazard is
low
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

36. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
constraint maps
High Landslide
Risk and
Flooding Areas
a pixel is removed if its
landslide and flooding
risk is high
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

37. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
constraint maps
Seismic
Microzonation
a pixel is removed if soils
characteristics are not
good
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

38. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
constraint maps
Areas physically
occupied
by buildings
and roads
a pixel is removed if it is
“occupied” by structures
and infrastructures
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

39. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
weights definition
Pairwise comparison
according to Saaty
A “neutral” scenario: all criteria
have same importance.
A “functional” point of view:
criteria related to accessibility and
built-up areas proximity are more
important than others.
three scenarios
A “safety” point of view: criteria
related to natural risks are more
important than others.
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

40. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
weights definition
Pairwise comparison
according to Saaty
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

41. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
resilient city
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions

42. Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria Approach GEOG-AN-MOD
L. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi 2011
conclusions
A first approach to resilient city identification
More criteria Some lack of information
A map to communicate resilience
How to maximize resilience
The right scale?
to diversify alternatives
Another multicriteria model?
Facing wth Risks Vulnerability Resilient Spatial Multicriteria Conclusions and
disasters management and Resilience City Approach directions