EU-Borderlands-Enlargement

The European Union &
Ben Gavin
Its Borderlands
Saturday, February 20, 2010

"I want to say that Europe must give itself borders, that
not all countries have a vocation to become members
of Europe, beginning with Turkey which has no place
inside the European Union."
"Enlarging Europe with no limit risks destroying
European political union, and that I do not accept,"
-Nicolas Sarkozy, 2007

"Moving forward towards Turkish membership in the EU would be an important signal of your
commitment to this agenda and ensure that we continue to anchor Turkey firmly in Europe."
“Turkey is bound to Europe by more than just bridges over the Bosporous”
Barack Obama, 2009

"I have been working hand-in-hand with President Obama
but when it comes to the European Union it's up to
member states of the European Union to decide"
"I have always been opposed to this entry and I remain
opposed."
-Nicolas Sarkozy, in response to Barack Obama 2009


Today’s plan...
• Try to Figure out where Europe ends and begins

• The Copenhagen Criteria (circa 1993)

• Official candidates with potential problems & potential candidates with official problems

• The Balkan conundrum (SAAs)

• The ENP- Problems and Possibilities, Inconsistent and Incompatible

• The ENP- The Siberian Tiger in the room

• “Post Soviet Purgatory,” “frozen conflicts,” & the “Kosovo Precedent”

• Movie Time! (BBC)

• No more “colored” revolutions, it’s Twitter time! The Moldovan riots of 2009!

Awash in Acronyms
• EU- European Union

• SAA- Stabilization and Association Agreement (Balkan

• ENP- European Neighbourhood Policy

• MU- Mediterannean Union

• EPI- The Eastern Partnership Initiative becomes the Eastern Partnership (EaP) on
May 7, 2009

• CIS- Commonwealth of Independent States

But... It’s much more than just alphabet soup


“What” or “Where” is Europe?

• Historically, Europe’s borders have been dynamic. Often times deﬁned
“against” another identity or empire: most notably the Russian empire to the
East and the Turkish Ottoman empire to the south.


Who is a European?
• What makes a person European... A shared history?

• Racial or Ethnic Identity?

• Judeo-Christian tradition? (Orthodox, Catholic, Protestant)

OR
Self Identiﬁcation?

Cheesiest ? ﬁrst...
With your partners, see if you can come to a consensus on
where Europe begins and ends, and who is a European as it
refers to EU enlargement? (Is there any difference between
being European in general and being European as it refers to
EU enlargement? Does the EU have a monopoly on the word?)


History-to-date

• 1951- Germany, France, Italy, Benelux

• 1973- Denmark, Ireland, UK

• 1981 & 1986- Greece... Spain, Portugal

• 1995- Finland, Austria, Sweden

• 2004- Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland,
Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia,
Malta, Cyprus

• 2007- Romania, Bulgaria

Which EU enlargement is not on the map?
What do you notice about the 2004 accessions?

Basic Enlargement Protocols:
The “Copenhagen Criteria” circa 1993

• “stable institutions that guarantee democracy, the rule of law, human rights and
respect for and protection of minorities;”

• “a functioning market economy, as well as the ability to cope with the pressure of
competition and the market forces at work inside the Union;”

• “the ability to assume the obligations of membership, in particular adherence to the
objectives of political, economic and monetary union.”

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/the-policy/conditions-for-enlargement/index_en.htm

(Modiﬁed at Madrid EC in 1995, to clarify that “assume” means ability to implement.)


Okay so...
Why do countries consent to those criteria? Take a
minute & discuss what the beneﬁts of being an EU
member are & why do countries want to join the EU?


Beneﬁts of EU membership

• Political Stability - Internal & • Increased Investment
External
• Social Policies and Subsidies
• Guarantied human rights
protections

• Promise of open democratic society
& elections

• Increased Trade - Decrease Tariffs

• Increased Competition


Ofﬁcial Candidate Countries

• Croatia

• Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

• Turkey

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/candidate-countries/index_en.htm


Potential Candidate Countries (Ofﬁcial)

• Albania

• Serbia

• Montenegro

• Bosnia and
Herzegovina

• Kosovo? (Under UN resolution 1244)
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/potential-candidate-countries/index_en.htm

note: Albania plans to apply for full candidate status on April 28, 2009


What do most of the ofﬁcial candidate and potential
candidate countries have in common?
And what differentiates them?


Balkan Conundrum
• The collapse of Yugoslavia, whose
government was led out of Belgrade and
which had considerable Serbian
dominance left a loosely federated,
ethnically divided area unclear of distinct
borders. This led to almost two decades
of violence in the area and a rash of
newly declared and independent states
during the 1990s and early 21st century
culminating with dissolution of Serbia by
Montenegro in 2006 & the Feb 17, 2008
declaration of independence by Kosovo.
Kosovo was recognized by many
western EU members, as well as the
USA, creating ambiguities regarding
accepted norms of “Westphalian
sovereignty” and territorial integrity as it
pertained to Serbia. This has become
known as the “Kosovo Precedent” which
we will discuss later... Guess which
Western member doesn’t recognize
Kosovo?


Balkan path to accession

• Stabilization and Association Agreements (SAA)
“Moving closer towards the EU implies meeting the criteria and conditions for each stage. These relate to the Copenhagen membership
criteria and the Stabilisation and Association process, including on regional cooperation, good neighbourly relations and full cooperation
with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)… The pace of each country's progress is determined by its own
achievements.”2 "Good neighbourly relations and regional cooperation remain key in advancing towards EU membership and as such
constitute a central element of the Stabilisation and Association Process."3

2 Commission Communication on the Western Balkans, COM(2008)127 final, 5.3.2008.
3 EU Enlargement Strategy and main challenges 2008-2009, COM(2008) 674 final, 5.11.2008.

After the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s, Western Balkan states entered into SAAs with the EU, the SAAs, as
well as promoting peace and security for the Balkans also provided the Western Balkan states with a path
and criterium for EU integration. Today SAA’s are the main contractual relationship between the Balkan
states and the EU.

SAA’s in place: Macedonia- 2004 Croatia- 2005 Albania- 2006
Montenegro- 2007 Serbia- 2008 Bosnia & Herzegovina- 2008


Croatia-Slovenia
Border Dispute

• Unlike the conﬂicts in Bosnia
between the Croats, Bosniaks, and
Serbs or like Kosovo between
ethnic Albanians and Serbs. Croatia
and Slovenia share a common
religion, Catholicism, and have not
engaged in combat against one
another. But still Slovenia has
threatened to block Croatia’s NATO
and EU bids b/c of a small portion
of land near the Bay of Piran which
both countries claim. Slovenia
believes its access to the
Mediterranean/Adriatic seas is vital
to its economic and security
interests. (Croatia entered NATO
successfully two weeks ago to the
chagrin of Slovenia. What do you
think that means for Croatia’s EU
bid?)

Croatian Opinions Regarding EU Enlargement (2007)

If Croatia gets all the beneﬁts we just discussed from EU membership,
Why do you think there is such mixed opinions regarding it? Can we
assume that a majority of Turkey’s population wants EU membership?

(Gallup)


Potential Problems with Ofﬁcial Candidate
Countries

• Croatia
Border dispute with Slovenia, organized crime

• Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Name dispute with Greece

• Turkey (Perennial Candidate?)
AA since 1964 Ankara Agreement, Would enter as its 2nd largest member,
Cyprus resolution, A secular but Muslim nation, (Why is that an issue?) Some
members (i.e. Romania, France, Austria, Hungary) are opposed to Turkish
membership b/c of historical differences and/or demographic concerns,
recognition of Armenian genocide, Borders Iraq, Has separatist movements in
Kurdistan--Anatolia, Identity issues i.e. If Europe has historically been deﬁned
against the Turkish Ottoman Empire, how and when did Turkey become
“European” and has it? If so, what implications does that have on Turkish
culture and society?


Official problems with potential candidate countries
• Albania
Drug trafficking, ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, cultural differences as it is a predominantly
muslim state in contemporary Europe. (applying for
official candidate status very soon)

• Serbia
Kosovo issue, transitional justice issues i.e Karadzic & Mladic, Serbian nationalism in
Bosnia - Is Kosovar independence actually beneficial to Serbia’s EU bid?

• Bosnia & Herzegovina
Loose federation of Croats, Bosniaks, and Serbs with many nationalist factions and
deep divide between political leaders, secession threats, fears of rearmament. (see The
Economist, April 2, 2009)

• Kosovo... under UN resolution 1244
Is it even a sovereign state yet? Drug trafficking. (at least they use the Euro?)

• Montenegro
Organized crime, judicial reform, corruption (use Euro as well)


Informal Potential Candidates
• Moldova? Reunification with Romania? Resolution of Transnistrian conflict?

• Ukraine? Closer relations with EU after “Orange Revolution.” Vital for gas transport from Russia but has
internal political issues and rampant corruption.

• Kosovo? (under UN resolution 1244) Is it a “sovereign nation?” can it be both formal and informal?

• Morocco? Already applied and denied due to geographical reasons

• Georgia? “Rose Revolution” ushered in democratic reforms but Sakashvilli has since fought and lost a
war with Russia & today Georgians want him to resign amid autocratic fears.

• Armenia? If Turkey, why not Armenia? Greek logic? Crackdown of protests in 2008 killed 8, Technically
still at war with Azerbaijan via Nagorno Karabakh. (Armenia was first Christian state in world in 301ce.)

• Iceland? 2008/9 economic crisis caused the collapse of Iceland’s currency and government. Nowadays
EU membership is looking more beneficial than it did previously for the Icelanders.


Another Path?
The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP)
Initiated in 2003, with the 2004 accession looming, the EU envisioned “wider Europe”
as a “circle of friends,” which the EU would lead in creating stronger economic, social,
and political bonds with its neighbor’s to the south and east in order to promote
prosperity, peace, freedom and security in the immediate area surrounding the EU
( i.e., integration without accession).

“The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) sets ambitious objectives for
partnership with neighbouring countries based on commitments to shared
values, key foreign policy objectives and political, economic and institutional
reforms. Partner countries are invited to enter into closer political, economic and
cultural relations with the EU, to enhance cross border cooperation and to share
responsibility in conﬂict prevention and resolution. The Union offers the prospect
of a stake in its Internal Market and of further economic integration. The speed
and intensity of this process will depend on the will and capability of each partner
country to engage in this broad agenda. The policy builds upon the existing
framework of co-operation.” (ENP, 2005. http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/pdf/
country/georgia_country_report_2005_en.pdf)

Notice a difference from the Copenhagen Criteria?


ENP MAP

Darkest Blue-EU

Lighter Blue-Canidate
country

Gray- Potential Canditate
country

Green-ENP member


The Union for the Mediterranean

• Sarkozy, While campaigning in 2007, proposed a new policy endeavor for the
EU, the Mediterranean Union. The MU was proposed as another way to
broaden the EU inﬂuence and help secure peace in the middle east. Although
the MU links all EU members with the participating countries on the
Mediterranean, some member states have criticized it for various reasons.

• As alternative offer, rather than full membership for Turkey.

• As an obstruction to the previous “Barcelona process” embodied in the
Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, now a part of the MU.

• As a Franco-centric plan to enhance France’s standing in the EU and
beyond. Many member states were former colonial holdings of France.
Why does that matter... That means that the entire infrastructure of the
former colonies is most accessible to France and the MU gives France a
comparative advantage economically & politically in the Area


Eastern Partnership

• Cited sometimes as a continental response to the MU, the Eastern
Partnership creates a “regional partnership” with the six ENP members not
included in the MU. It is planned to go in force on May 7, 2009

"Shared values including democracy, the rule of law, and respect for human rights will be at its core, as well as the principles of
market economy, sustainable development and good governance,"

"The Eastern Partnership should provide the foundation for new Association Agreements between the EU and those partners who
have made sufficient progress towards the principles and values set out [above]."

(draft for EU summit on Eastern Partnership May 7, 2009)

note: Alexander Lukashenko, Belarussian president has not been invited to the summit in prague and Belarus has NO formal
relationship with the EaP as of yet...

But wait... if democracy, rule of law, and respect for human rights are at the core of
the EaP what about places like Belarus, Armenia, or Azerbaijan? Maybe it’s more
geo-political than the EU wants to admit?


ENP Members
• Algeria (MU) • Jordan (MU)

• Armenia (EaP) • Lebanon (MU)

• Azerbaijan (EaP) • Libya (MU)

• Belarus (EaP) • Moldova (EaP)

• Egypt (MU) • Morocco (MU)

• Georgia (EaP) • Palestinian Authority (MU)

• Israel (MU) • Syria (MU)

• Tunisia (MU) • Ukraine (EaP)


ENP (World Bank Statistics, 2006)

ENP Partner GDP in millions $ GDP per capita Population in millions ENP action plan
Algeria 114,727 $3,440 33.3

Armenia 6,406 $2,130 3.0 2006

Azerbaijan 20.116 $2,375 8.5 2006
Belarus 36,945 $3,802 9.7
Egypt 107,484 $1,426 75.4 2007
Georgia 7,550 $1,702 4.4 2006
Israel 123,434 $17,677 7.0 2005
Jordan 14,176 $2,634 5.6 2005
Lebanon 22,722 $5,603 4.1 2007
Libya 50,320 $8,436 5.9
Moldova 3,266 $850 3.8 2005
Morocco 57,307 $1,879 30.5 2005
Syria 34,902 $1,790 19.5
Tunisia 30,298 $2,990 10.1 2005
Ukraine 106,111 $2,278 46.6 2005

Palestinian Areas 4,059 $1,805 3.7 2005

Per Capita GDP - EU Members
GDP (PPP) 2008 GDP (PPP) Percentage of EU27
Member States millions of per capita 2008 average GDP
euro euro (PPP) per capita 2008
European Union 12,172,536 25,800 100%
1 Germany € 2,309,810 28,100 111%
2 United Kingdom 1,847,105 28,800 114%
3 France € 1,744,444 27,600 108%
4 Italy € 1,500,475 25,200 98%
5 Spain € 1,189,174 26,700 103%
6 Netherlands € 530,564 32,500 131%
7 Poland 515,608 14,000 60%
8 Belgium € 319,867 29,300 118%
9 Sweden 274,499 30,300 123%
10 Greece € 271,206 24,900 97%
11 Austria € 264,472 31,800 125%
12 Romania 244,289 12,690 51%
13 Portugal € 236.697 22,264 90%
14 Czech Republic 209,773 21,100 82%
15 Denmark 171,298 30,500 119%
16 Hungary 158,304 16,400 63%
17 Ireland € 157,070 36,300 140%
18 Finland € 155,640 28,800 115%
19 Slovakia € 98,655 18,400 71%
20 Bulgaria 76,400 11,000 44%
21 Lithuania 50,515 15,700 62%
22 Slovenia € 44,429 23,600 91%
23 Latvia 32,802 13,000 52%
24 Luxembourg € 31,376 70,400 273%
25 Estonia 24,005 17,400 68%
26 Cyprus € 18,109 23,800 92%

Does offering a share of the EU’s Internal (economic) Market impede the
dialogue for cultural, social, or political integration by ENP members? If so,
what members and in what ways would this beneﬁt and who would this
create problems for? And Is it appropriate that some countries gain
access to EU’s economic market w/o honoring key requirements such as
human rights protections and free or open democratic reforms?


The Siberian Tiger in the room... or nextdoor?
Mother Russia

• Russia ﬁrmly rejected the ENP as an equal member state. Russia views itself
as an “equal partner” in its relationship with the EU and still envisions a
Russian sphere of inﬂuence in a multipolar world.

• Instead Russia, the EU’s 3rd largest trading partner, and the EU have created
a “special relationship” centered on 4 “common spaces”

1. Economic issues & the environment
2. Freedom, security, & justice
3. External Security
4. Research & education

http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/russia/index_en.htm


Siberian Tiger Cont...

• The ENP encroaches on Russia’s traditional sphere of influence; the CIS. All
of the ENP members are all also CIS members. Oftentimes membership in
both clubs creates conflicts of interest & impedes progress & development for
the countries caught between the Russia and the EU, a sort of “ Post Soviet
Purgatory.” (RFE, Peter Lavelle)

• Russia has been known to use its economic power to leverage political
advantage in its post soviet space. The “Wine wars” that Russia waged on
Moldova & Georgia as well as the the Ukrainian gas crisis are just two
examples.

• As Russia’s economy is in decline, the EU is looking to the EaP and new
association agreements, we can bet that Russia will look to reign in on its
traditional sphere of influence


Wine War Moldova & Georgia

• 1 in 4 households employed in industry or related ﬁeld

• Up to 30% of GDP

• 85% sold to Russia

• 2006 Russia bans all wines, declaring them unﬁt for human consumption.


Frozen conflicts

• Area’s in the EU’s periphery where unsettled conflicts over unrecognized
sovereignty and territorial integrity undermine the current recognized
government, or the government is not recognized at all.

1. Transnistria 2. South Ossetia 3. Abkhazia 4. Cyprus
5. Kosovo 6. Nagorno Karabakh 7. Crimea
• As the conflicts undermine the sovereignty of independent states on the EU’s
periphery we can infer that it impedes EU expansion, right? Well... what about
the “Kosovo Precedent?” Did their declaration actually pave the way to EU
integration?


Economic Crisis 2008/9

• The global recession has exposed economic, political, and ideological rifts
between EU member states.

• Rising protectionism is causing a strain in relationships btwn “old” & “new”
Europe.

• Only Slovakia and Slovenia have adopted the euro from the 2004 accession. The
collapse of currencies and subsequent inﬂation from the Baltic states to Greece
coupled with the debt that they and their citizens own in euros from western EU
members and banks has exposed major problems within the EU’s monetary
system.

• The crisis does not only affect eastern states b/c the east owes the debt to
western nations and if they collapse it could severely damage western
economies. In that case, is it a good thing that the bulk of eastern states have
not yet adopted the euro: i.e. deﬂate currency? Or should all members be
required to adopt the Euro?

Case Study: Moldova Wait...Moldavia?


MOVIE TIME!


Moldavia... Bessarabia... USSR... Moldova... ?

• Area originally principality of Moldavian kingdom.

• Principality of Ottoman empire

• Annexed to Russia 1812

• 1918-1940 united with Romania

• 1941 Operation Barbarosa, Soviet Union gains control - Moldavian SSR

• 1991 Declares independence

• 1992 loses civil war with Transnistria


Bessarabia & N. Bucovina ceded to USSR - 1940

(Note: The Dobruja /Dobrogea borders in S. Romania were also redrawn with Bulgaria)


Present Day Romania - Moldova


Moldova

• 1992- fought a war with Transnistria, a separatist region north of the Nistru
river. Transnistria won, supported by Russia and its 14th infantry Transnistria
easily overwhelmed the Moldovan army.

• The Russian military has remained in Transnistria as a “peacekeeping” force
ever since

• The poorest country in Europe. Over 60% of Moldova’s working age
population lives and works outside the country. Over 800,000 citizens have
applied for Romanian citizenship.

• The only nation in Europe with a democratically elected communist
government. (this is a point of serious contention right now)

• Has autonomous region known as Gagauz Yeri or Gagauzia.


Transnistria
(Transdeniestria, Dnestr Moldovan Republic - PMR)

• Declared unrecognized independence 1992

• Firmly entrenched in Russia’s sphere of inﬂuence, led by Russian passport
holder, Igor Smirnov. (Ex-KGB)

• Smirnov’s family runs all major industry and retail through “Sheriff”

• Known as “Europe’s Black Hole” b/c of rampant smuggling of gas, guns,
goods, drugs, & people (Movie Time)

• Has own currency, Transnistrian roubles.

• Has Russian 14th brigade military stationed in country & a cache of Soviet
weapons at Kolbasna.


Moldovan Parliament April 7, 2009


Romania Maps (Inside Bucuresti school K-8)


Moldova - Romania
Ethnic Composition

• On Tuesday Romania’s
president, Traian Basescu,
offered a fast track to
citizenship for 1 million
Moldovan citizens.(FT)

• On an unrelated note...
Basescu’s daughter, Elena, a
model, just got her 100,000
signatures for an EP run.


Moldovan Riots. April 7, 2009.


Twitter revolution?


What do you think was at the root of the recent riots? Reaction to election fraud
or simmering dissatisfaction with Moldova’s status in “post Soviet purgatory?” Is
this the manifestation of a new path toward entry to the EU -- self identiﬁcation
and determination among a generation who believe they are part of a larger entity
and identity? Has the “Kosovo precedent” made the prospect of self
determination with EU recognition more likely?

EU-Borderlands-Enlargement

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Destaque

Destaque (16)

Semelhante a EU-Borderlands-Enlargement

Semelhante a EU-Borderlands-Enlargement (20)

Último

Último (20)

EU-Borderlands-Enlargement