Analysing Your Marketing Mix Through Actionable Metrics Within A Fair Attribution Model

BJORN BEHRENDT, EXAMPLES & RESEARCH FILES ON MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU
PAGE 1
ANALYSING YOUR MARKETING MIX
THROUGH ACTIONABLE METRICS
WITHIN A FAIR ATTRIBUTION MODEL
ONLINE RETAIL SUMMIT 2013, HUNTER VALLEY

© MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU
AGENDA
BACKGROUND
BASICS
ACTIONABLE METRICS
LEAN ATTRIBUTION MODEL
COOKBOOK
GOOGLE ANALYTICS

MY
BACKGROUND
KPMG
EBAY
4SXS
HIOGI
STYLETREAD
PARCELPUSH
• STYLETREAD LAUNCHED 10/12
MODELLED AROUND ZAPPOS
• $19M IN FUNDING (NINE
ENTERTAINMENT, STARFISH,
LAKESTAR…)
• 750K-1M MONTHLY VISITORS
• 500K+ DATABASE
• TRADE SALE FEB 2013
• LAUNCH OF KILLCOM.COM 3/13
• INSERT MARKETING NETWORK
FOR ONLINE RETAILERS
• LAUNCHED 01/13
• 250K MONTHLY E-COMMERCE
PARCEL INSERTS
• 2M MONTHLY CAPACITY

THREE
DIFFERENT
TYPES
ACROSS
MULTIPLE
SCREENS
ACROSS DIGITAL
CHANNELS
ATTRIBUTION
MODELS
ONLINE TO
STORE

DEFINITIONS
MARKETING ATTRIBUTION IS THE PRACTICE OF
DETERMINING THE ROLE THAT CHANNELS PLAY
IN INFLUENCING THE CUSTOMER JOURNEY
TOWARDS CONVERSION GOALS.
ATTRIBUTION MODELS AIMS TO GIVE EACH
CHANNEL A FAIR ROI VALUE.
ATTRIBUTION OFFERS THE ABILITY TO
UNDERSTAND HOW MARKETING IMPACTS THE
ENTIRE SALES CYCLE AND TO OPTIMIZE
ACROSS IT.*PARTLY FROM 2012 ECONSULTANCY
“MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
VALUING THE CUSTOMER JOURNEY”

SURVEY
RESULTS
Budget
increase of
21%
in ALL
channels
54% of
businesses carry
out some form of
attribution
But of those
who do,
89%
say attribution
had a positive
impact on their
business
of whom
28%
use last
click
WWW.GOOGLE.COM/THINK/WEBI
NARS/BUILDING-BLOCKS-DIGITAL-
ATTRIBUTION.HTML
ADOBE ATTRIBUTION
INFOGRAPHIC

BENEFITS OF
ATTRIBUTION*
*2012 STUDY BY ECONSULTANCY

BARRIERS TO
ATTRIBUTION /
KEYS TO
SUCCESS

CHANGES TO
CHANNEL
INVESTMENT
RESULTING
FROM
ATTRIBUTION

ATTRIBUTION
MODELS ARE
MORE THAN…
SPEND PER CHANNEL
/ CONVERSIONS PER CHANNEL
= CPO PER CHANNEL
…
AIDA MODEL,
ENGAGEMENT,
LOYALTY
CROSS-CHANNEL IMPACT EXAMPLES:
• „DISPLAY‟ AND „TV‟ CREATE A NEW BUYING
INTENT AND A DESIRE WHILE INCREASING
BRAND AWARENESS.
• „SEM‟ AND „SEO‟ ALSO CREATE BRAND
AWARENESS, BUT MAINLY REACT TO AN
EXISTING INTENT/DESIRE (SEARCH QUERY)
OFTEN RESULTING IN AN ACTION.
• „DIRECT‟ IS A RESULT OF ALL OF THE ABOVE.
• WHICH CHANNEL MOVES CUSTOMERS MORE
EFFICIENTLY FROM BEING INTRODUCERS TO
INFLUENCERS TO CLOSERS…?!

ACTIONABLE , ACCESSIBLE AND AUDITABLE
THE THREE A‟S OF
METRICS

CONVERSION
FUNNEL:
ACTIONABLE
PERCENTAGES
MATTER
E.G. HYPOTHESIS:
ACTIVATION RATE
FROM 1ST TIME
VISITORS TO A
PAYING CUSTOMER IS
HIGHER IF SOMEONE
WATCHED A PRODUCT
VIDEO (EVENT)
ACQUISITION
ACTIVATION
RETENTION
REFERRAL
REVENUE
%
%
%
%
% Event% Event
% Event% Event
% Event % Event
% Event% Event

…IT IS MOST LIKELY A VANITY METRIC
IF “A CURRENT AFFAIR”
INCREASES THE
METRIC…

ACTIONABLE
CONVERSION
METRICS
Metric Customer Behaviour Conversion
Rate (% of
unique
visits)
Estimated
Value
Acquisition Rate 1 Spends x time on site and y
views onsite
60% $0.10
Activation Rate 2 Relevant 1st visit (x clicks, y
views, z time on site)
25% $0.40
Activation Rate 1 Email Signup 4% $2.50
Activation Rate 2 Account Signup 2% $3.00
Retention Rate 1 Email opened 4% $0.75
Retention Rate 2 Repeat visit (x visits in y
days)
3% $2.00
Referral Rate 1 Referred a user who visited
site
4% $6.00
Referral Rate 2 Referred a user who
activated
3% $9.00
Revenue Rate 1 Customer orders 4% $12.00
Revenue Rate 2 Customer orders repeatedly
reaching relevant CLTV
2% $28.00
E.G. HYPOTHESIS:
THE CLTV AND REFERRAL
RATE OF A CUSTOMER
WHO HAS SEEN THE TVC IS
X TIMES HIGHER THAN THE
AVERAGE

IDEAS FOR
GOALS AND
EVENTS
• CONVERSION / PURCHASE
• NEWSLETTER SUBSCRIPTIONS
• FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTIONS
• UPGRADES
• QUOTE REQUESTS
• DOWNLOADS
• WATCHING A VIDEO ABOUT A SERVICE/PRODUCT
• VIEWING 5+ PAGES ON THE WEBSITE
• VIEWING 10+ PAGES ON THE WEBSITE
• FACEBOOK LIKES / GOOGLE+
• JOB APPLICATION FORMS
• CONTACT FORMS
• IN-APP PURCHASES

COHORTS
AND
FUNNEL
ANALYSIS
SOURCE:
BOOK BY ERIC RIES
THE LEAN STARTUP

THE LEAN STARTUP PROCESS - DIAGRAM

THE MINIMUM VIABLE CAMPAIGN IS THAT VERSION OF A NEW
MARKETING CAMPAIGN WHICH ALLOWS A TEAM TO COLLECT THE
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF STATISTICAL RELEVANT RESULTS WITH THE
LEAST EFFORT, LEAST TIME AND THE LEAST BUDGET POSSIBLE.
MVC

AND AVOID THE LARGE BATCH DEATH-SPIRAL
WORK IN SMALL
BATCHES

ITERATE,
ITERATE,
ITERATE,
THEN PIVOT
CUSTOMER SEGMENT PIVOT: HYPOTHESIS MIGHT BE
CONFIRMED FOR THE CHANNEL, BUT AN UNEXPECTED USER
GROUP REACT => MIGHT LEAD TO CHANGES IN LANGUAGE,
GRAPHICS, CLTV, BUDGET…
ZOOM-IN PIVOT: WHAT WAS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
ASSISTING OR SUPPORTING CAMPAIGN BECOMES THE MAIN
CAMPAIGN.
ZOOM-OUT PIVOT: TEST AROUND A CERTAIN MEDIUM /
CHANNEL MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO VALIDATE A
HYPOTHESIS AND MORE CHANNELS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADDED.
PLATFORM PIVOT: A TECHNOLOGY MIGHT PROOF TO
DELIVER USELESS RESULTS.
METHODOLOGY PIVOT: A CERTAIN STATISTICAL APPROACH
MIGHT PROOF TO BE IRRELEVANT OR USELESS.
MAKE AS MANY
MISTAKES AS
QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE TO LEARN
FROM THEM

1. RATE OF NEW CUSTOMER ACQUISITIONS NEEDS TO
EXCEED THE CHURN RATE.
2. INCREASE REVENUE FROM EACH CUSTOMER.
3. IMPROVE RETENTION AND VIRAL COEFFICIENT (VC>1).
4. REDUCE ACQUISITION COSTS FOR NEW CUSTOMERS.
RULES FOR THE
STICKY ENGINE OF
GROWTH

USE THE
5 WHY‟S
TO GET TO THE BOTTOM OF THINGS…

COOKBOOK
PART I:
THE SETUP
1. ENSURE YOUR PROMOTIONS ARE MEASURABLE
(CAMPAIGN LINKS UTM TAGGED / URL BUILDER).
2. ENSURE GOOGLE ANALYTICS IS INSTALLED ON
YOUR LANDING PAGES (TAGGING PAGES).
3. DEFINE AND SETUP CONVERSION GOALS AND
EVENTS FOR YOUR SITE AND APP (ENGAGEMENT
FLOWS, FUNNELS)
4. TEST YOUR SETUP
5. INSTALLADWORDS CONVERSION TRACKING
6. LINK ADWORDS ACCOUNTS
7. ENABLE ADWORDS AUTO-TAGGING
8. ENABLE TRACKING FOR ALL PAGES AND
SUBDOMAINS (EXCLUDE OFFICE IP)
9. COLLECT ORDER DATA (SKU, PRICE)

COOKBOOK
PART II:
TIPS FOR THE
FIRST
ITERATION
1. DO A CHANNEL BY CHANNEL AUDIT FIRST
2. THEN START WITH TWO CHANNELS
3. USE ONE TRACKING SYSTEM
4. SET COOKIE DURATION
5. REDUCE DATA / COMPLEXITY E.G. BY JUST
LOOKING AT 2-3 TOUCH POINTS
6. START WITH STANDARD CONVERSION
GOALS
7. RUN SPLIT-TESTS AND REGRESSION TESTS
TO TEST CORRELATIONS
8. ENSURE RESULTS ARE STATISTICAL
RELEVANT
(SEE CALCULATOR MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU)

COOKBOOK
PART II:
USE
ATTRIBUTION
RATIOS TO
COMPARE
CAMPAIGN
SPLIT-TEST
RESULTS
REVENUE FROM FIRST TOUCH / REVENUE FROM LAST TOUCH
= APPROPRIATE ATTRIBUTION RATIO
• CLOSER TO 0.00 = CONVERSION CAMPAIGN
• CLOSER TO 1.00 = PERSUASION CAMPAIGN
• CLOSER TO 10.00 = ACQUISITION CAMPAIGN
APPROPRIATE ATTRIBUTION NET RATIO = (REVENUE FROM
FIRST TOUCH - CAMPAIGN MARKETING COST) / (REVENUE
FROM LAST TOUCH – CAMPAIGN MARKETING COST)
APPROPRIATE ATTRIBUTION RATIO MARGIN = (REVENUE
FROM FIRST TOUCH – CAMPAIGN COGS/ REVENUE FROM
LAST TOUCH - CAMPAIGN COGS)
SOURCE: ACQUISIO / SEARCH MARKETING NOW
“BUILDING AN ATTRIBUTION MODEL THAT WORKS”

COOKBOOK
PART III:
CALCULATE
EFFICIENCY
FACTORS PER
CHANNEL AND
USE SIMPLE
SCORING TO
DETERMINE
FAIRER CPOS
(SEE EXCEL EXAMPLE MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU)
INSPIRED BY QUISMA “INDIVIDUAL CONVERSION ATTRIBUTION”

COOKBOOK
PART IV:
START
CRUNCHING
BIGGER DATA
1. WORK SCIENTIFICALLY
2. HIRE SOME REALLY BRIGHT TALENT (FINANCE OR
ACCOUNTING BACKGROUND, EXCELLENT EXCEL
SKILLS)
3. UPGRADE YOUR ANALYTICS SOFTWARE OR START
COMBINING MORE DATA SOURCES IN ONE BI
SYSTEM
4. INVEST INTO AN AD SERVER
5. ADD BEHAVIOURAL PROFILING TO THE MIX
6. INTEGRATE DIRECT MARKETING TOOLS AND
START AUTOMATING PERSONALISED MESSAGES
(EMAIL, ABANDONED CART, RETARGETING…)

VENN DIAGRAM
GOOGLE ANALYTICS

VENN DIAGRAM
WITH SOCIAL
MEDIA
GOOGLE ANALYTICS

TOP
CONVERSION
PATHS
GOOGLE ANALYTICS

ASSISTED
CONVERSIONS
ANALYSIS
“SUCCESSFUL
SALE”
GOOGLE ANALYTICS

PATH LENGTH IN
INTERACTIONS
GOOGLE ANALYTICS

TIME LAG IN
DAYS
GOOGLE ANALYTICS

GOOGLE
ANALYTICS
ATTRIBUTION
MODELING
TOOL*
*GOOGLE ANALYTICS PLAYBOOK

GOOGLE
ANALYTICS
CUSTOM
MODELS
GOOGLE ANALYTICS

BJORN@MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU
TWITTER.COM/BBWEB
0423 509 161
SOURCES & EXAMPLES AS ZIP ON
WWW.MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU

Analysing Your Marketing Mix Through Actionable Metrics Within A Fair Attribution Model

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Analysing Your Marketing Mix Through Actionable Metrics Within A Fair Attribution Model