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Hungarian Association
                                 of Executives




Evidence-Based Management
        An introduction

 Hungarian Association of Executives
       October 26, Budapest
Hungarian Association
                                       of Executives



 Where does it come from?
 What is it?
 Why do we need it?
 How does it look like in practice?
  (An example)
Hungarian Association
                        of Executives


Evidence based management:
 Where does it come from?
What field is this?
                                                      Hungarian Association
                                                      of Executives


 “there is a large research-user gap”
 “practitioners do not read academic journals”
 “the findings of research into what is an effective intervention
  are not being translated into actual practice”
 “academics not practitioners are driving the research agenda”
 “the relevance, quality and applicability of research is
  questionable”
 “practice is being driven more by fads and fashions than
  research”
 “many practices are doing more harm than good”
Medicine: Founding fathers
                                             Hungarian Association
                                             of Executives




   David Sackett                 Gordon Guyatt


      McMaster University Medical School, Canada
How it all started
                     Hungarian Association
                     of Executives
Problem I: too much information
                                                  Hungarian Association
                                                  of Executives



 More than 1 million articles in 40,000 medical journals per
  year (= 1995; now probably more than 2 million). For a
  specialist to keep up this means reading 25 articles every
  day (for a GP more than 100!)


 Most of the new insights and treatment
  methods don‟t reach the target group
Problem I: too much information
                                                Hungarian Association
                                                of Executives



 HRM: 1,350 articles in 2010 (ABI/INFORM). For an HR
  manager to keep up this means reading 3 to 4 articles
  every day (for a „general‟ manager more than 50!)
Problem II: persistent convictions
                                 Hungarian Association
                                 of Executives




   if you’re
                      breathe into a bag
 hyperventilating
Problem II: persistent convictions
                                        Hungarian Association
                                        of Executives




elderly people who have      give them a drug that
an irregular heartbeat are          reduces the
much more likely to die of           number of
     coronary disease             irregular beats
How 40,000 cardiologists can be wrong
                                                Hungarian Association
                                                of Executives


            In the early 1980s newly introduced anti-
            arrhythmic drugs were found to be highly
            successful at suppressing arrhythmias.

            Not until a RCT was performed was it realized
            that, although these drugs suppressed
            arrhythmias, they actually increased mortality.


            The CAST trial revealed Excess mortality of
            56/1000.

            By the time the results of this trial were
            published, at least 100,000 such patients had
            been taking these drugs.
Hungarian Association
                                                of Executives

David Sackett
 Half of what you learn in medical school will be
  shown to be either dead wrong or out-of-date
  within 5 years of your graduation; the trouble is that
  nobody can tell you which half.

 The most important thing to learn is how to learn
  on your own: search for the evidence!

 (Remember that your teachers are as full of bullshit
  as your parents)
Evidence-Based Practice
                          Hungarian Association
                          of Executives



1991   Medicine
1998   Education
1999   Social care
2000   Nursing
2000   Criminal justice
????   Management?
Hungarian Association
                        of Executives



Evidence based management:
        What is it?
Definition
                                               Hungarian Association
                                               of Executives


Evidence-based management means making decisions
about the management of employees, teams or
organizations through the conscientious, explicit and
judicious use of four sources of information:

1.   The best available scientific evidence

2.   Organizational facts, metrics and characteristics

3.   Stakeholders’ values and concerns

4.   Decision supports and practitioner expertise
Four sources
               Hungarian Association
               of Executives
Definition
                                        Hungarian Association
                                        of Executives




   When making an important
   decision, an evidence-based manager
   knows whether there is scientific
   evidence available to support this
   decision   (and how „strong‟ the
   evidence is).
Hungarian Association
                         of Executives



Evidence-based management:
    Why do we need it?
Four sources
               Hungarian Association
               of Executives
Hungarian Association
                                  of Executives




Trust me: 20 years of management experience!
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
                                 Hungarian Association
                                 of Executives
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
                                                           Hungarian Association
                                                           of Executives


   Seeing order in randomness
   Mental corner cutting
   Misinterpretation of incomplete data
   Halo effect
   False consensus effect
   Attribution error                  Confirmation bias
   Group think                        Authority bias
   Self serving bias                  Small numbers fallacy
   Sunk cost fallacy                  In-group bias
   Cognitive dissonance reduction     Recall bias
                                       Anchoring bias
                                       Inaccurate covariation detection
                                       Distortions due to plausibility
Hungarian Association
                                                   of Executives




“I’ve been studying intuition for 45 years, and I’m no better
than when I started. I make extreme predictions. I’m over-
confident. I fall for every one of the biases.”
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
                                             Hungarian Association
                                             of Executives




    Doctors and managers hold many erroneous
 beliefs, not because they are ignorant or stupid, but
because they seem to be the most sensible conclusion
  consistent with their own professional experience!
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
                                      Hungarian Association
                                      of Executives




  stress & lifestyle        peptic ulcer
Oct 2005

        Peptic ulcer – an infectious disease!
This year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine goes to Barry Marshall and Robin
Warren, who with tenacity and a prepared mind challenged prevailing dogmas. By
using technologies generally available (fibre endoscopy, silver staining of
histological sections and culture techniques for microaerophilic bacteria), they
made an irrefutable case that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori is causing disease.
By culturing the bacteria they made them amenable to scientific study.


 In 1982, when this bacterium was discovered by Marshall and Warren, stress and
 lifestyle were considered the major causes of peptic ulcer disease. It is now
firmly established that Helicobacter pylori
causes more then 90% of duodenal ulcers.
The link between Helicobacter pylori
infection and peptic ulcer disease has been
established through studies of human
volunteers, antibiotic treatment studies and
epidemiological studies.
Beliefs vs Evidence
                                      Hungarian Association
                                      of Executives




“What gets us into trouble is not what we
don't know,

it's what we know for sure that just isn't so.”




                                         Mark Twain
True or false?
                                                 Hungarian Association
                                                 of Executives



1. Incompetent people benefit more from feedback than
   highly competent people.


2. Task conflict improves work group performance while
   relational conflict harms it.


3. Encouraging employees to participate in decision
   making is more effective for improving organizational
   performance than setting performance goals.
How evidence-based are we?
                                                                       Hungarian Association
                                                                       of Executives

HR Professionals' beliefs about effective human resource practices: correspondence
between research and practice, (Rynes et al, 2002, Sanders et al 2008)




    959 (US) + 626 (Dutch) HR professionals
    35 statements, based on an extensive body of evidence
    true / false / uncertain



         On average: 35% - 57% correct
Evidence-based?
                                          Hungarian Association
                                          of Executives


  Competence management
  Excellent care
  Total Quality Management
  Flexible workspace / The New World of Work
  Knowledge Management
  Investors in People, Great Place To Work
  Balanced Score Card / INK
  Lean / Six Sigma / TOC
Evidence-based approach
                                           Hungarian Association
                                           of Executives




  How „new‟ is this question or problem?

  Is there evidence from scientific research that
  can help us find the most effective approach?

  How „strong‟ is this evidence?

  Is the evidence applicable to my situation?
Hungarian Association
                              of Executives



 Evidence based management:
How does it look like in practice?
The 5 steps of EBP
                                             Hungarian Association
                                             of Executives



1. Formulate a focused question (Ask)

2. Search for the best available evidence (Acquire)

3. Critically appraise the evidence (Appraise)

4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial
  expertise and organisational concerns and apply
  (Apply)

5. Monitor the outcome (Assess)
Hungarian Association
                           of Executives


1. Formulate a focused question
Asking the right question?
                                                  Hungarian Association
                                                  of Executives



 Does team-building work?
 Does the introduction of self-steering teams work?
 Does management development improve the performance
  of managers?

 Does employee participation prevent resistance to change?
 Is 360 degree feedback effective?
Focused question?
                                        Hungarian Association
                                        of Executives



  Does team-building work?
     What is a „team‟?
     What kind of team?
     In what contexts/ settings?
     What counts as „team-building‟?
     What does „work‟ mean?
     What outcomes are relevant?
     Over what time periods?
Answerable question: PICOC
                                     Hungarian Association
                                     of Executives




P = Population

I = Intervention or success factor

C = Comparison

O = Outcome

C = Context
Focused question: PICOC
                                                          Hungarian Association
                                                          of Executives




P = Population

I = Intervention or successfactor

C = Comparison                  Employee productivity?

                                Job satisfaction?

O = Outcome                     Return on investment?

                                Market share?
C = Context
                                Organizational commitment?
Hungarian Association
                               of Executives


2. Finding the best available evidence
Where do we search?
                      Hungarian Association
                      of Executives
Hands on instruction
                       Hungarian Association
                       of Executives
Hungarian Association
                                 of Executives


3. Critical appraisal of studies




      Making sense of evidence
Hungarian Association
                    of Executives




Best available evidence?
Research designs
                               Hungarian Association
                               of Executives




       What is the BEST car?
Research designs
                           Hungarian Association
                           of Executives



Which design for which question?
Which design for which question?
                                         Hungarian Association
                                         of Executives




Explanation
Hungarian Association
                        of Executives




Best research design?
Best available?
                  Hungarian Association
                  of Executives
What is evidence?
                                                    Hungarian Association
                                                    of Executives




 Evidence is not the same as „proof‟ or „hard facts‟
 Evidence can be
    - so strong that no one doubts its correctness, or

    - so weak that it is hardly convincing at all
Hungarian Association
                         of Executives


Step 4: Turning evidence into
           practice
Hungarian Association
of Executives
Applicable / Feasible?                  Hungarian Association
                                         of Executives


 organizational facts and characteristics
 cultural aspects
 stakeholders‟ values and concerns
 political aspects
 financial aspects /cost-effectiveness / ROI
 priorities
 change readiness / resistance to change
 implementation capacity
 timing
Hungarian Association
                                    of Executives




         Evidence-based practice:

 Focuses on the decision making process

 Uses research findings to increase the
  likelihood of a positive outcome

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Evidence-Based Management, An Introduction

  • 1. Hungarian Association of Executives Evidence-Based Management An introduction Hungarian Association of Executives October 26, Budapest
  • 2. Hungarian Association of Executives  Where does it come from?  What is it?  Why do we need it?  How does it look like in practice? (An example)
  • 3. Hungarian Association of Executives Evidence based management: Where does it come from?
  • 4. What field is this? Hungarian Association of Executives  “there is a large research-user gap”  “practitioners do not read academic journals”  “the findings of research into what is an effective intervention are not being translated into actual practice”  “academics not practitioners are driving the research agenda”  “the relevance, quality and applicability of research is questionable”  “practice is being driven more by fads and fashions than research”  “many practices are doing more harm than good”
  • 5. Medicine: Founding fathers Hungarian Association of Executives David Sackett Gordon Guyatt McMaster University Medical School, Canada
  • 6. How it all started Hungarian Association of Executives
  • 7. Problem I: too much information Hungarian Association of Executives  More than 1 million articles in 40,000 medical journals per year (= 1995; now probably more than 2 million). For a specialist to keep up this means reading 25 articles every day (for a GP more than 100!)  Most of the new insights and treatment methods don‟t reach the target group
  • 8. Problem I: too much information Hungarian Association of Executives  HRM: 1,350 articles in 2010 (ABI/INFORM). For an HR manager to keep up this means reading 3 to 4 articles every day (for a „general‟ manager more than 50!)
  • 9. Problem II: persistent convictions Hungarian Association of Executives if you’re breathe into a bag hyperventilating
  • 10. Problem II: persistent convictions Hungarian Association of Executives elderly people who have give them a drug that an irregular heartbeat are reduces the much more likely to die of number of coronary disease irregular beats
  • 11. How 40,000 cardiologists can be wrong Hungarian Association of Executives In the early 1980s newly introduced anti- arrhythmic drugs were found to be highly successful at suppressing arrhythmias. Not until a RCT was performed was it realized that, although these drugs suppressed arrhythmias, they actually increased mortality. The CAST trial revealed Excess mortality of 56/1000. By the time the results of this trial were published, at least 100,000 such patients had been taking these drugs.
  • 12. Hungarian Association of Executives David Sackett  Half of what you learn in medical school will be shown to be either dead wrong or out-of-date within 5 years of your graduation; the trouble is that nobody can tell you which half.  The most important thing to learn is how to learn on your own: search for the evidence!  (Remember that your teachers are as full of bullshit as your parents)
  • 13. Evidence-Based Practice Hungarian Association of Executives 1991 Medicine 1998 Education 1999 Social care 2000 Nursing 2000 Criminal justice ???? Management?
  • 14. Hungarian Association of Executives Evidence based management: What is it?
  • 15. Definition Hungarian Association of Executives Evidence-based management means making decisions about the management of employees, teams or organizations through the conscientious, explicit and judicious use of four sources of information: 1. The best available scientific evidence 2. Organizational facts, metrics and characteristics 3. Stakeholders’ values and concerns 4. Decision supports and practitioner expertise
  • 16. Four sources Hungarian Association of Executives
  • 17. Definition Hungarian Association of Executives When making an important decision, an evidence-based manager knows whether there is scientific evidence available to support this decision (and how „strong‟ the evidence is).
  • 18. Hungarian Association of Executives Evidence-based management: Why do we need it?
  • 19. Four sources Hungarian Association of Executives
  • 20. Hungarian Association of Executives Trust me: 20 years of management experience!
  • 21. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Hungarian Association of Executives
  • 22. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Hungarian Association of Executives  Seeing order in randomness  Mental corner cutting  Misinterpretation of incomplete data  Halo effect  False consensus effect  Attribution error Confirmation bias  Group think Authority bias  Self serving bias Small numbers fallacy  Sunk cost fallacy In-group bias  Cognitive dissonance reduction  Recall bias  Anchoring bias  Inaccurate covariation detection  Distortions due to plausibility
  • 23. Hungarian Association of Executives “I’ve been studying intuition for 45 years, and I’m no better than when I started. I make extreme predictions. I’m over- confident. I fall for every one of the biases.”
  • 24. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Hungarian Association of Executives Doctors and managers hold many erroneous beliefs, not because they are ignorant or stupid, but because they seem to be the most sensible conclusion consistent with their own professional experience!
  • 25. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Hungarian Association of Executives stress & lifestyle peptic ulcer
  • 26. Oct 2005 Peptic ulcer – an infectious disease! This year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine goes to Barry Marshall and Robin Warren, who with tenacity and a prepared mind challenged prevailing dogmas. By using technologies generally available (fibre endoscopy, silver staining of histological sections and culture techniques for microaerophilic bacteria), they made an irrefutable case that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori is causing disease. By culturing the bacteria they made them amenable to scientific study. In 1982, when this bacterium was discovered by Marshall and Warren, stress and lifestyle were considered the major causes of peptic ulcer disease. It is now firmly established that Helicobacter pylori causes more then 90% of duodenal ulcers. The link between Helicobacter pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease has been established through studies of human volunteers, antibiotic treatment studies and epidemiological studies.
  • 27. Beliefs vs Evidence Hungarian Association of Executives “What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know, it's what we know for sure that just isn't so.” Mark Twain
  • 28. True or false? Hungarian Association of Executives 1. Incompetent people benefit more from feedback than highly competent people. 2. Task conflict improves work group performance while relational conflict harms it. 3. Encouraging employees to participate in decision making is more effective for improving organizational performance than setting performance goals.
  • 29. How evidence-based are we? Hungarian Association of Executives HR Professionals' beliefs about effective human resource practices: correspondence between research and practice, (Rynes et al, 2002, Sanders et al 2008)  959 (US) + 626 (Dutch) HR professionals  35 statements, based on an extensive body of evidence  true / false / uncertain On average: 35% - 57% correct
  • 30.
  • 31. Evidence-based? Hungarian Association of Executives  Competence management  Excellent care  Total Quality Management  Flexible workspace / The New World of Work  Knowledge Management  Investors in People, Great Place To Work  Balanced Score Card / INK  Lean / Six Sigma / TOC
  • 32. Evidence-based approach Hungarian Association of Executives How „new‟ is this question or problem? Is there evidence from scientific research that can help us find the most effective approach? How „strong‟ is this evidence? Is the evidence applicable to my situation?
  • 33. Hungarian Association of Executives Evidence based management: How does it look like in practice?
  • 34. The 5 steps of EBP Hungarian Association of Executives 1. Formulate a focused question (Ask) 2. Search for the best available evidence (Acquire) 3. Critically appraise the evidence (Appraise) 4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial expertise and organisational concerns and apply (Apply) 5. Monitor the outcome (Assess)
  • 35. Hungarian Association of Executives 1. Formulate a focused question
  • 36. Asking the right question? Hungarian Association of Executives  Does team-building work?  Does the introduction of self-steering teams work?  Does management development improve the performance of managers?  Does employee participation prevent resistance to change?  Is 360 degree feedback effective?
  • 37. Focused question? Hungarian Association of Executives  Does team-building work?  What is a „team‟?  What kind of team?  In what contexts/ settings?  What counts as „team-building‟?  What does „work‟ mean?  What outcomes are relevant?  Over what time periods?
  • 38. Answerable question: PICOC Hungarian Association of Executives P = Population I = Intervention or success factor C = Comparison O = Outcome C = Context
  • 39. Focused question: PICOC Hungarian Association of Executives P = Population I = Intervention or successfactor C = Comparison  Employee productivity?  Job satisfaction? O = Outcome  Return on investment?  Market share? C = Context  Organizational commitment?
  • 40. Hungarian Association of Executives 2. Finding the best available evidence
  • 41. Where do we search? Hungarian Association of Executives
  • 42. Hands on instruction Hungarian Association of Executives
  • 43. Hungarian Association of Executives 3. Critical appraisal of studies Making sense of evidence
  • 44. Hungarian Association of Executives Best available evidence?
  • 45. Research designs Hungarian Association of Executives What is the BEST car?
  • 46. Research designs Hungarian Association of Executives Which design for which question?
  • 47. Which design for which question? Hungarian Association of Executives Explanation
  • 48. Hungarian Association of Executives Best research design?
  • 49. Best available? Hungarian Association of Executives
  • 50. What is evidence? Hungarian Association of Executives  Evidence is not the same as „proof‟ or „hard facts‟  Evidence can be - so strong that no one doubts its correctness, or - so weak that it is hardly convincing at all
  • 51. Hungarian Association of Executives Step 4: Turning evidence into practice
  • 53. Applicable / Feasible? Hungarian Association of Executives  organizational facts and characteristics  cultural aspects  stakeholders‟ values and concerns  political aspects  financial aspects /cost-effectiveness / ROI  priorities  change readiness / resistance to change  implementation capacity  timing
  • 54. Hungarian Association of Executives Evidence-based practice:  Focuses on the decision making process  Uses research findings to increase the likelihood of a positive outcome