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J Med Syst
DOI 10.1007/s10916-009-9259-8

 ORIGINAL PAPER



Statistical Analysis of Patients’ Characteristics in Neonatal
Intensive Care Units
Ali Kokangul & Ayfer Ozkan & Serap Akcan &
Kenan Ozcan & Mufide Narli




Received: 2 December 2008 / Accepted: 26 January 2009
# Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2009


Abstract The staff in the neonatal intensive care units is           Introduction
required to have highly specialized training and the using
equipment in this unit is so expensive. The random number            The child/baby mortality is one of the most important sub-
of arrivals, the rejections or transfers due to lack of capacity     indexes of national life standards, determined by Human
and the random length of stays, make the advance                     Developing Index [1]. A baby might require neonatal
knowledge of the optimal staff; equipments and materials             intensive care due to premature birth, low birth weight or
requirement for levels of the unit behaves as a stochastic           a respiratory disorder. The staff and physicians in the
process. In this paper, the number of arrivals, the rejections or    neonatal intensive care units (NICU) are the most experi-
transfers due to lack of capacity and the random length of           enced and specialized, and they are required to have highly
stays in a neonatal intensive care unit of a university hospital     specialized training to work in the NICU.
has been statistically analyzed. The arrival patients are               The patients admitted to NICU are placed in one of four
classified according to the levels based on the required nurse:      levels based on the required nurse: patient ratio. This ratio is
patient ratio and gestation age. Important knowledge such as         calculated by using patient level or dependency scales, which
arrivals, transfers, gender and length of stays are analyzed.        operate on the assumption that the more critically ill the patient,
Finally, distribution functions for patients’ arrivals, rejections   the more nurse time is needed to care for the patient [2]. Most
and length of stays are obtained for each level in the unit.         National Health Service hospital trusts in England began
                                                                     using the EURICU-1 level system, which calculates nurse:
Keywords Newborn . Neonatal intensive care units .                   patient ratio [3, 4]. A nurse to patient ratio of 1:2 and 1:4 for
Patients’ characteristics . Statistical analysis                     non-ventilation beds are maintained round the clock [5].
                                                                        In this study, the NICU of a university hospital is
                                                                     considered. It is capable of invasive and non-invasive
A. Kokangul : A. Ozkan : S. Akcan (*) : M. Narli                     monitoring of the neonate’s cardio respiratory systems and
Department of Industrial Engineering,                                can provide oxygen, and age appropriate thermoregulation.
Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Cukurova University,        In addition, heart rate, respiratory rate, blood pressure and
01330, Adana, Turkey                                                 oxygen saturation are monitored continuously. There are
e-mail: sakcan@cu.edu.tr
                                                                     three levels in the unit. The patients in these levels may
A. Kokangul                                                          become stabilized or worse and re-categorized into one of
e-mail: kokangul@cu.edu.tr
                                                                     the other levels. The arrival patients are placed in one of
A. Ozkan                                                             three levels as described below.
e-mail: ayferdursoy@yahoo.com
M. Narli                                                             &   Level I patients are those who require close observation,
e-mail: znarli@yahoo.com                                                 but not necessarily the continuous presence of a nurse at
                                                                         the bedside.
K. Ozcan
                                                                     &   Level II patients are those who require close observa-
Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Cukurova University,
01330, Adana, Turkey                                                     tion, but not necessarily the continuous presence of a
e-mail: kenanozcan73@gmail.com                                           nurse at the bedside.
J Med Syst


                                                                   Materials and methods

                                                                   It is crucial that the staff or equipment requirement should
                                                                   be appropriate to the dependency of the patients in the unit.
                                                                   To present the statistical analysis we consider the patients
                                                                   flow in the NICU. Patients come from outside to one of the
                                                                   levels in the NICU. When the patients arrive to the NICU:
                                                                   If there is unoccupied staff and equipments they will be
                                                                   admitted and accepted, if there is not any unoccupied staff
                                                                   or equipment in the level, they will be rejected or
                                                                   transmitted to elsewhere. The patients in the levels may
                                                                   become stabilized or worse and re-categorized into one of
Fig. 1 Yearly amount of unclassified patient admissions            the other levels or they may die during the shift. Patients
                                                                   come from a level to another level have higher priority then
                                                                   patient come from outside the NICU. When a patient
                                                                   transmitting from a level to another one, if there is no
&   Level III patients are those who require a nurse at the
                                                                   unoccupied staff and equipments the transmitting patient
    bedside continuously for 24 h/day.
                                                                   will stay in the same level for any unoccupied staff and
   The number of arrivals, transmitting rate among levels          equipments.
and length of stays (LOS) are random and this randomness               The considered NICU is able to serve patients with
make the number of patients in each level behave as a              different level of medical treatment. The NICU observed
stochastic process. In practice, the variance of the differ-       through this study has dedicated equipments to serve at
ence of the arrival and departure rates can deplete patients       three different levels of medical treatments. The distribu-
in the levels causing unoccupied staff and equipment or fill       tions of the equipments with respect to the levels of the unit
the unit causing rejection or transfer. Naturally, the             are listed as follows: Level I: two open beds; level II: three
management of the unit tries to avoid these problems.              open beds and eight incubators; level III: three open beds,
   Several methods such as ratio based method [6–8], discrete      ten incubators and ten ventilators. To perform the statistical
event simulation [9, 10], stochastic simulation and queuing        analysis of the NICU the patients flow in the unit is
models [11, 12], a combination of simulation, queuing theory       observed for 5 years (2000–2004), then for each level and
and statistical analysis [13, 14] and integrated methodologies     gestation age obtain distributions for the following param-
that combined stochastic and deterministic approaches [15–         eters: Daily arrivals, LOS and rejected or transmitted
17] have been suggested to solve the equipment planning            arrivals. In addition; the gestation age, gender, birth weight,
problem of hospital in the literature.                             diagnosis, arrival date, leave date and leave reasons data of
   All of these methods are based on the statistical analysis of   3,330 patients treated in 2000–2004 period is collected.
patients’ arrivals and LOS. In most of these studies, the          This study aims to investigate the characteristics of the
variation of requested admissions over time has not been taken     patients and to form basis for other studies. For this
into account. The variations in demand of staff, equipments or     proposes, the registration data of the patients were analyzed
materials arise due to unpredictable nature of NICU admission      and interpreted statistically and graphically.
rates and LOS. Using the average number of patients expected
in a year, average LOS and target occupancy level to calculate
the capacity needed is mathematically incorrect because of
non-linearity and variability in the factors that control LOS
[18]. Also, the level of the economic use of any units’
capacity may be changed from a unit to another unit in the
same hospital. Therefore, the statistical analysis for each unit
in the hospital is useful in practice.
   In this study, the probability distributions for accepted,
transferred or rejected arrivals and LOS are determined for
each gestation age and level in the NICU. Also, arrival
sources, transfer reasons, gender of arrivals and transmitting
rate among levels are statistically analyzed. To the best of the
authors’ knowledge these kinds of statistical analysis have
not been performed for a NICU of a university hospital.            Fig. 2 Gender based distribution of accepted patients
J Med Syst

Table 1 Patient source

Source         Year                                                                                                         Total       %
                                                                                                                            patients
               2000                   2001                 2002                 2003                  2004

               The number of    %     The number of   %    The number of   %    The number of    %    The number of   %
               patients               patients             patients             patients              patients

Considered            379       61           461      69          452      70          536       75          453      73      2281      70
 Hospital
Other                  119      19           100      15          114      18          101       14           84      14       518      16
 hospitals
Other                 126       20           108      16          83       13           75       11           82      13       474      14
 provinces




   Statistical analysis was done in two different cases. In             arrivals are in agreement with the Poisson distribution.
the first case, no special features of the patients were taken          Cochran and Bharti [15] performed statistical analysis
into consideration and no classifying has been done. In the             related to arrival, stay distributions, and unit usage rate of
second case, patients are classified according to the gestation         patients that covers the whole units in the hospital.
age and levels of the unit. In both cases the analyses were                 In this study, patients applying to NICU were statisti-
done considering patients’ arrivals frequency, LOS and                  cally investigated without classifying. As seen in Fig. 1,
discharge probability at monthly and yearly basis. Further-             3,330 admitted patients are considered and more than 600
more, to obtain the LOS and rejection rate, patients were               patients have been accepted per year. It is also observed that
classified in terms of the level base.                                  the highest admission occurred in the year 2003.
   To analyze the patient characteristics statistically, hypoth-            Gender based distribution of accepted patients with
eses were developed and tested with a statistical software              respect to years is shown in Fig. 2. It can be concluded
package such as Statistica 6.0 [19] and MatLab 7.0 [20].                that newborn boy babies need more treatment compared to
                                                                        girl babies. Although the total number of accepted patients
                                                                        may change, mostly the distribution of the patients at the
Research and finding                                                    gender base remains unaltered.
                                                                            The arrival characteristics for 57 admitted patients could
The analysis of non-classified patients                                 not be collected. Therefore, arrival characteristics of 3,273
                                                                        patients are considered. To determine the arrival character-
Gronescu et al. [21] investigated all patients’ arrivals to the         istics of the patients, their admission data are classified into
geriatric unit in terms of the arrival frequencies, LOS and             three groups. These are the patients that come from the
rejection rate to determine the bed fill rate and cost.                 other units of the same, the patients that come from the
Groothius et al. [22] did not classify the patients applied             other hospitals that are located in the same province, and
to the cardiology units. They performed the statistical                 patients who come from other provinces.
analyses to determine the demands and the characteristics                   It can be seen in Table 1, that 70% of patients have come
of patients. Analysis results showed that the patients’                 from the considered, 16% of patients have come from the



Table 2 Departure reasons of patients per year

Reasons         Year                                                                                                       Total       %
                                                                                                                           Patients
                2000                  2001                 2002                 2003                  2004

                The number of   %     The number of   %    The number of   %    The number of   %     The number of   %
                patients              patients             patients             patients              patients

Getting Well           508       85          497      75          510      79          623       88          348      77    2486       80,9
Transmitting            28      4,7           58       9           67      10           13      1,8           11       2     177        5,8
Death                   60       10          111      17           71      11           73       10           95      21     410       13,3
J Med Syst

Fig. 3 Monthly patients’
arrivals




other hospitals that are in the same province and 14% of              H1 = Patients’ arrivals are not in agreement with the
patients have come from the other provinces. The number of         Poisson distribution
patients originated from other hospitals and provinces                Hypotheses were analyzed with chi-square test, which is
decreased during 5 years period. Transmitting a sick baby          used to determine the differences between the variables and
from a hospital to another one may increase the mortality          operates with the frequency distributions. Statistical soft-
rate; therefore, most of patients preferred the closed hospital.   ware analyzed the patients’ arrivals using the chi-square test
    Patients are accepted to be departure from the hospital in     with 95% confidence. The test parameters, namely, the chi-
the event of getting well, death, or when they are sent to         square test statistics and the level of significance (p) were
another hospital while the illness is continued. The departure     found to be 3.57 and 0.46 respectively. As the obtained chi-
characteristics for 257 admitted patients could not be             square test statistic is lower than the chi-square table value,
collected. Therefore, during this study the departure character-   the difference between the expected and the real values are
istics of 3,073 patients are considered. As it can be seen from    not significantly low.
the Table 2, while 80.9% of the patients are departure from           As the test, significance level (p) is larger than of 0.05;
the NICU due to recovery of health, 13.3% departure due to         H0 hypothesis cannot be rejected [24]. Thus, the patients’
death and 5.8% sent to another hospital or another unit.           arrival per year found to be in agreement with the Poisson
    When the number of patients’ arrivals is investigated at       distribution. Similarly chi-square test was applied for the
the month basis, it can be seen in Fig. 3 that, there exist an     other 4 years and the patients’ arrivals and distribution
increase by January, which is decreased around April and           parameters were obtained as seen in Table 3.
re-increased around June.                                             The same hypotheses test was applied on the monthly
                                                                   patients’ arrivals and they also found to be in agreement
Arrival distribution for the non-classified patients               with the Poisson distribution.

To introduce the demand on the NICU and inspect the
arrived patients’ profile, the number of patients applied in a
5 years period has been obtained. The distribution of daily
patients’ arrivals in 2000 is given in Fig. 4 as an example.
Although there were no arrivals for 73 days either due to the
lack of capacity in the equipments used for the treatment or
due to the existence of no application, the number of arrivals
in some days increased up to six patients.
   In most of studies, the arrival pattern of patients is
considered as Poisson process [21–23]. It can be concluded
from Fig. 4 that the patients’ arrivals are in agreement with
Poisson process. To check the suitability with the Poisson
process a zero and an alternative hypothesis were formed.
In that respect,
   H0 = Patients’ arrivals are in agreement with the Poisson
distribution                                                       Fig. 4 Patients’ arrival distribution in 2000
J Med Syst

Table 3 The statistical distributions of the admitted patients

Year    Chi-Square     Significance (p)    Distribution    Parameter

2000         3,57            0,46          Poisson         λ=1,6612
2001         2,03            0,72          Poisson         λ=1,83562
2002         4,34            0,36          Poisson         λ=1,80274
2003         3,65             0,6          Poisson         λ=1,94795
2004         4,32            0,36          Poisson         λ=1,74590




Analyses of the classified patients

Studies performed on the basis of whole hospital and on the
basis of different units’ show that the classifying of patients
                                                                        Fig. 5 Gender distribution of groups (%)
varies with respect to the units. Ridge et al. [25] and Utley
et al. [26] classify the patients into two groups after the
studies carried at the intensive care units, as urgent patients
and patients with appointments. Darzi et al. [27] and                   high probability of premature birth and they need treatment
Navarro et al. [28] classified the patients in geriatrics unit          after birth. On the year based examination, however, it has
in to three groups with respect to the treatment period as              been found that while the numbers of group IV patients
short term, mid-term and long term treated. Utley et al. [29]           were decreasing, numbers of group II patients were
on the other hand, classified the patients’ arrivals and LOS            increasing.
as acute and non-acute. In this study the arrival patients are             It can be seen from the Fig. 5 that the number of boy
classified according to the gestation age and treatment                 babies applied to newborn care units are higher than the
level.                                                                  number of girl babies. Group IV has the highest ratio of boy
                                                                        babies with 59.9%.
Patient analysis with respect to gestation age                             Table 5 presents the departure reasons of the patients
                                                                        based on their gestation age’s groups. Group 0 patients have
In a study carried by the Turkish Neonatology Association               relatively low probability of survival and group III patients
in 2003 [30], patients were classified with respect to the              have relatively high probability of survival. It can be
gestation period while analyzing the death ratio of newborn             depicted that patients of the last four groups (Group II,
infants. In this study, similarly, patients were classified             Group III, Group IV and Group V) have higher probability
according to their gestation period in to six groups.                   of getting well compared to the patients of the first two
   Classification with respect to gestation age is given in             groups.
Table 4. When the distribution of the patients applied to the              The collected data for the group 0 is not sufficient for
NICU is investigated, it can be seen that while the majority            statistical analysis. Therefore, group based patients’ arrivals
of the patients belong to group III, minority belong to group           distributions are analyzed for the last five groups. The
0. Thus, it can be concluded that the group III patients has a          group-based patients’ arrivals distributions, done with chi-
                                                                        square test statistical analysis, are in an agreement with the
                                                                        Poisson and Geometrical distributions as seen in Table 6.

Table 4 The number of admitted patients with respect to gestation       Patients’ analysis with respect to treatment level
age

Group Gestation  Year                     The Total of                  Patients are directed by the doctors to the levels (Level I,
      age (week)                          Groups                        Level II and Level III) according to the necessary
                 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
                                                                        equipment and medical staff needed for their treatments.
0       21–25           7      9       8      9      10            43   The LOS of the emergency patients and planned patients
1       26–28          52     60      46     60      57           275   were described using either the negative exponential curve
2       29–32         122    116     129    136     167           670   or a Weibull curve fitting routine [31]. Tu et al. [32] have
3       33–37         161    220     200    246     209          1036   used discriminate analysis for post-operative prediction of
4       38–42         236    178     122    120      56           712
                                                                        LOS. A monogram is described for predicting the LOS of
5       43–            38     73     140    139     119           509
                                                                        neonatal patients [33]. Utley et al. [29] assumed that the
Total   616           656    645     710    618    3245
                                                                        time a patient stays in a particular pool of beds before either
J Med Syst

Table 5 Departure reasons of the patients based on their gestation age

Reasons        Group (Gestation Age (week))

               0 (21–25)                1 (26–28)                  2 (29–32)        3 (33–37)           4 (38–42)               5 (43– )

               The number of       % The number of          % The number of    % The number of    %     The number of      % The number of         %
               patients              patients                 patients           patients               patients             patients

Getting well           10          24        139            54          480    79           847   88         570           82        371           79
Transmitting            0           0         14             6           41     7            60   6,2         48            7         42            9
Death                  32          76        103            40           84    14            56   5,8         74           11         58           12




Table 6 Group based patient arrivals and statistical distribution parameters

Group                   Gestation                     Chi-Square               Significance               Distribution                     Parameter
                        age (week)                                             (p)

0                       21–25                                  -                        -                 -                                -
1                       26–28                               0,05                     0,81                 Geometric                        p=0,86959
2                       29–32                               5,24                     0,07                 Poisson                          λ=0,36344
3                       33–37                                3,8                     0,15                 Poisson                          λ=0,56103
4                       38–42                                3,7                    0,054                 Geometric                        p=0,72385
5                       43–                                 1,62                     0,44                 Poisson                          λ=0,27805




Table 7 Level based patient arrivals’ and LOS distributions and parameters

                    Arrival                                                     LOS

                    Distribution                     Test                       Distribution                             Test

Level I             Poisson (λ=0,24725)              K-S (0.0144 < 0.56)        Lognormal (μ=1.670 σ=0.998)              K-S ( 0.073 < 0.074)
Level II            Poisson (λ=0,76438)              K-S ( 0.0068 <0.56)        Lognormal (μ=2.16 σ=0.689)               K-S ( 0.087 < 0.098)
Level III           Poisson (λ=0,63288)              K-S ( 0.012 < 0.56)        Lognormal (μ=1.54 σ=1.139)               Chi-Square (9.01 < 14.06)




Table 8 Level based rejected patients’ distributions and parameters

Rejected patients      Arrival

                       Distribution                 Test

Level I                Poisson (λ=0,87097)          K-S (0.0422 < 0.565)
Level II               Poisson (λ=0,97561)          K-S (0.0175 < 0.624)
Level III              Poisson (λ=0,96078)          K-S (0.04926 < 0.624)
J Med Syst


discharge or transfer to the other pool can be treated as        distributions will make possible applying methods such as
identically and independently distributed. Each level of the     simulation, queuing models, and integrated methodologies
NICU required different specialized equipments and qual-         that combined stochastic and deterministic approaches to
ified staff. This requirement level varies from a level to       determine the optimal necessary staff or equipments for any
another level in the unit. All of these equipment and staff      levels of a NICU. This study can further be enriched by
requirement for each level based on the patients’ arrivals       adding the population-increasing rate.
and LOS of the levels. Therefore, in this section the
patients’ arrivals and LOS for each level have been
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Statistical Analysis of Patients’ Characteristics in Neonatal Intensive Care Units

  • 1. J Med Syst DOI 10.1007/s10916-009-9259-8 ORIGINAL PAPER Statistical Analysis of Patients’ Characteristics in Neonatal Intensive Care Units Ali Kokangul & Ayfer Ozkan & Serap Akcan & Kenan Ozcan & Mufide Narli Received: 2 December 2008 / Accepted: 26 January 2009 # Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2009 Abstract The staff in the neonatal intensive care units is Introduction required to have highly specialized training and the using equipment in this unit is so expensive. The random number The child/baby mortality is one of the most important sub- of arrivals, the rejections or transfers due to lack of capacity indexes of national life standards, determined by Human and the random length of stays, make the advance Developing Index [1]. A baby might require neonatal knowledge of the optimal staff; equipments and materials intensive care due to premature birth, low birth weight or requirement for levels of the unit behaves as a stochastic a respiratory disorder. The staff and physicians in the process. In this paper, the number of arrivals, the rejections or neonatal intensive care units (NICU) are the most experi- transfers due to lack of capacity and the random length of enced and specialized, and they are required to have highly stays in a neonatal intensive care unit of a university hospital specialized training to work in the NICU. has been statistically analyzed. The arrival patients are The patients admitted to NICU are placed in one of four classified according to the levels based on the required nurse: levels based on the required nurse: patient ratio. This ratio is patient ratio and gestation age. Important knowledge such as calculated by using patient level or dependency scales, which arrivals, transfers, gender and length of stays are analyzed. operate on the assumption that the more critically ill the patient, Finally, distribution functions for patients’ arrivals, rejections the more nurse time is needed to care for the patient [2]. Most and length of stays are obtained for each level in the unit. National Health Service hospital trusts in England began using the EURICU-1 level system, which calculates nurse: Keywords Newborn . Neonatal intensive care units . patient ratio [3, 4]. A nurse to patient ratio of 1:2 and 1:4 for Patients’ characteristics . Statistical analysis non-ventilation beds are maintained round the clock [5]. In this study, the NICU of a university hospital is considered. It is capable of invasive and non-invasive A. Kokangul : A. Ozkan : S. Akcan (*) : M. Narli monitoring of the neonate’s cardio respiratory systems and Department of Industrial Engineering, can provide oxygen, and age appropriate thermoregulation. Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Cukurova University, In addition, heart rate, respiratory rate, blood pressure and 01330, Adana, Turkey oxygen saturation are monitored continuously. There are e-mail: sakcan@cu.edu.tr three levels in the unit. The patients in these levels may A. Kokangul become stabilized or worse and re-categorized into one of e-mail: kokangul@cu.edu.tr the other levels. The arrival patients are placed in one of A. Ozkan three levels as described below. e-mail: ayferdursoy@yahoo.com M. Narli & Level I patients are those who require close observation, e-mail: znarli@yahoo.com but not necessarily the continuous presence of a nurse at the bedside. K. Ozcan & Level II patients are those who require close observa- Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Cukurova University, 01330, Adana, Turkey tion, but not necessarily the continuous presence of a e-mail: kenanozcan73@gmail.com nurse at the bedside.
  • 2. J Med Syst Materials and methods It is crucial that the staff or equipment requirement should be appropriate to the dependency of the patients in the unit. To present the statistical analysis we consider the patients flow in the NICU. Patients come from outside to one of the levels in the NICU. When the patients arrive to the NICU: If there is unoccupied staff and equipments they will be admitted and accepted, if there is not any unoccupied staff or equipment in the level, they will be rejected or transmitted to elsewhere. The patients in the levels may become stabilized or worse and re-categorized into one of Fig. 1 Yearly amount of unclassified patient admissions the other levels or they may die during the shift. Patients come from a level to another level have higher priority then patient come from outside the NICU. When a patient transmitting from a level to another one, if there is no & Level III patients are those who require a nurse at the unoccupied staff and equipments the transmitting patient bedside continuously for 24 h/day. will stay in the same level for any unoccupied staff and The number of arrivals, transmitting rate among levels equipments. and length of stays (LOS) are random and this randomness The considered NICU is able to serve patients with make the number of patients in each level behave as a different level of medical treatment. The NICU observed stochastic process. In practice, the variance of the differ- through this study has dedicated equipments to serve at ence of the arrival and departure rates can deplete patients three different levels of medical treatments. The distribu- in the levels causing unoccupied staff and equipment or fill tions of the equipments with respect to the levels of the unit the unit causing rejection or transfer. Naturally, the are listed as follows: Level I: two open beds; level II: three management of the unit tries to avoid these problems. open beds and eight incubators; level III: three open beds, Several methods such as ratio based method [6–8], discrete ten incubators and ten ventilators. To perform the statistical event simulation [9, 10], stochastic simulation and queuing analysis of the NICU the patients flow in the unit is models [11, 12], a combination of simulation, queuing theory observed for 5 years (2000–2004), then for each level and and statistical analysis [13, 14] and integrated methodologies gestation age obtain distributions for the following param- that combined stochastic and deterministic approaches [15– eters: Daily arrivals, LOS and rejected or transmitted 17] have been suggested to solve the equipment planning arrivals. In addition; the gestation age, gender, birth weight, problem of hospital in the literature. diagnosis, arrival date, leave date and leave reasons data of All of these methods are based on the statistical analysis of 3,330 patients treated in 2000–2004 period is collected. patients’ arrivals and LOS. In most of these studies, the This study aims to investigate the characteristics of the variation of requested admissions over time has not been taken patients and to form basis for other studies. For this into account. The variations in demand of staff, equipments or proposes, the registration data of the patients were analyzed materials arise due to unpredictable nature of NICU admission and interpreted statistically and graphically. rates and LOS. Using the average number of patients expected in a year, average LOS and target occupancy level to calculate the capacity needed is mathematically incorrect because of non-linearity and variability in the factors that control LOS [18]. Also, the level of the economic use of any units’ capacity may be changed from a unit to another unit in the same hospital. Therefore, the statistical analysis for each unit in the hospital is useful in practice. In this study, the probability distributions for accepted, transferred or rejected arrivals and LOS are determined for each gestation age and level in the NICU. Also, arrival sources, transfer reasons, gender of arrivals and transmitting rate among levels are statistically analyzed. To the best of the authors’ knowledge these kinds of statistical analysis have not been performed for a NICU of a university hospital. Fig. 2 Gender based distribution of accepted patients
  • 3. J Med Syst Table 1 Patient source Source Year Total % patients 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 The number of % The number of % The number of % The number of % The number of % patients patients patients patients patients Considered 379 61 461 69 452 70 536 75 453 73 2281 70 Hospital Other 119 19 100 15 114 18 101 14 84 14 518 16 hospitals Other 126 20 108 16 83 13 75 11 82 13 474 14 provinces Statistical analysis was done in two different cases. In arrivals are in agreement with the Poisson distribution. the first case, no special features of the patients were taken Cochran and Bharti [15] performed statistical analysis into consideration and no classifying has been done. In the related to arrival, stay distributions, and unit usage rate of second case, patients are classified according to the gestation patients that covers the whole units in the hospital. age and levels of the unit. In both cases the analyses were In this study, patients applying to NICU were statisti- done considering patients’ arrivals frequency, LOS and cally investigated without classifying. As seen in Fig. 1, discharge probability at monthly and yearly basis. Further- 3,330 admitted patients are considered and more than 600 more, to obtain the LOS and rejection rate, patients were patients have been accepted per year. It is also observed that classified in terms of the level base. the highest admission occurred in the year 2003. To analyze the patient characteristics statistically, hypoth- Gender based distribution of accepted patients with eses were developed and tested with a statistical software respect to years is shown in Fig. 2. It can be concluded package such as Statistica 6.0 [19] and MatLab 7.0 [20]. that newborn boy babies need more treatment compared to girl babies. Although the total number of accepted patients may change, mostly the distribution of the patients at the Research and finding gender base remains unaltered. The arrival characteristics for 57 admitted patients could The analysis of non-classified patients not be collected. Therefore, arrival characteristics of 3,273 patients are considered. To determine the arrival character- Gronescu et al. [21] investigated all patients’ arrivals to the istics of the patients, their admission data are classified into geriatric unit in terms of the arrival frequencies, LOS and three groups. These are the patients that come from the rejection rate to determine the bed fill rate and cost. other units of the same, the patients that come from the Groothius et al. [22] did not classify the patients applied other hospitals that are located in the same province, and to the cardiology units. They performed the statistical patients who come from other provinces. analyses to determine the demands and the characteristics It can be seen in Table 1, that 70% of patients have come of patients. Analysis results showed that the patients’ from the considered, 16% of patients have come from the Table 2 Departure reasons of patients per year Reasons Year Total % Patients 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 The number of % The number of % The number of % The number of % The number of % patients patients patients patients patients Getting Well 508 85 497 75 510 79 623 88 348 77 2486 80,9 Transmitting 28 4,7 58 9 67 10 13 1,8 11 2 177 5,8 Death 60 10 111 17 71 11 73 10 95 21 410 13,3
  • 4. J Med Syst Fig. 3 Monthly patients’ arrivals other hospitals that are in the same province and 14% of H1 = Patients’ arrivals are not in agreement with the patients have come from the other provinces. The number of Poisson distribution patients originated from other hospitals and provinces Hypotheses were analyzed with chi-square test, which is decreased during 5 years period. Transmitting a sick baby used to determine the differences between the variables and from a hospital to another one may increase the mortality operates with the frequency distributions. Statistical soft- rate; therefore, most of patients preferred the closed hospital. ware analyzed the patients’ arrivals using the chi-square test Patients are accepted to be departure from the hospital in with 95% confidence. The test parameters, namely, the chi- the event of getting well, death, or when they are sent to square test statistics and the level of significance (p) were another hospital while the illness is continued. The departure found to be 3.57 and 0.46 respectively. As the obtained chi- characteristics for 257 admitted patients could not be square test statistic is lower than the chi-square table value, collected. Therefore, during this study the departure character- the difference between the expected and the real values are istics of 3,073 patients are considered. As it can be seen from not significantly low. the Table 2, while 80.9% of the patients are departure from As the test, significance level (p) is larger than of 0.05; the NICU due to recovery of health, 13.3% departure due to H0 hypothesis cannot be rejected [24]. Thus, the patients’ death and 5.8% sent to another hospital or another unit. arrival per year found to be in agreement with the Poisson When the number of patients’ arrivals is investigated at distribution. Similarly chi-square test was applied for the the month basis, it can be seen in Fig. 3 that, there exist an other 4 years and the patients’ arrivals and distribution increase by January, which is decreased around April and parameters were obtained as seen in Table 3. re-increased around June. The same hypotheses test was applied on the monthly patients’ arrivals and they also found to be in agreement Arrival distribution for the non-classified patients with the Poisson distribution. To introduce the demand on the NICU and inspect the arrived patients’ profile, the number of patients applied in a 5 years period has been obtained. The distribution of daily patients’ arrivals in 2000 is given in Fig. 4 as an example. Although there were no arrivals for 73 days either due to the lack of capacity in the equipments used for the treatment or due to the existence of no application, the number of arrivals in some days increased up to six patients. In most of studies, the arrival pattern of patients is considered as Poisson process [21–23]. It can be concluded from Fig. 4 that the patients’ arrivals are in agreement with Poisson process. To check the suitability with the Poisson process a zero and an alternative hypothesis were formed. In that respect, H0 = Patients’ arrivals are in agreement with the Poisson distribution Fig. 4 Patients’ arrival distribution in 2000
  • 5. J Med Syst Table 3 The statistical distributions of the admitted patients Year Chi-Square Significance (p) Distribution Parameter 2000 3,57 0,46 Poisson λ=1,6612 2001 2,03 0,72 Poisson λ=1,83562 2002 4,34 0,36 Poisson λ=1,80274 2003 3,65 0,6 Poisson λ=1,94795 2004 4,32 0,36 Poisson λ=1,74590 Analyses of the classified patients Studies performed on the basis of whole hospital and on the basis of different units’ show that the classifying of patients Fig. 5 Gender distribution of groups (%) varies with respect to the units. Ridge et al. [25] and Utley et al. [26] classify the patients into two groups after the studies carried at the intensive care units, as urgent patients and patients with appointments. Darzi et al. [27] and high probability of premature birth and they need treatment Navarro et al. [28] classified the patients in geriatrics unit after birth. On the year based examination, however, it has in to three groups with respect to the treatment period as been found that while the numbers of group IV patients short term, mid-term and long term treated. Utley et al. [29] were decreasing, numbers of group II patients were on the other hand, classified the patients’ arrivals and LOS increasing. as acute and non-acute. In this study the arrival patients are It can be seen from the Fig. 5 that the number of boy classified according to the gestation age and treatment babies applied to newborn care units are higher than the level. number of girl babies. Group IV has the highest ratio of boy babies with 59.9%. Patient analysis with respect to gestation age Table 5 presents the departure reasons of the patients based on their gestation age’s groups. Group 0 patients have In a study carried by the Turkish Neonatology Association relatively low probability of survival and group III patients in 2003 [30], patients were classified with respect to the have relatively high probability of survival. It can be gestation period while analyzing the death ratio of newborn depicted that patients of the last four groups (Group II, infants. In this study, similarly, patients were classified Group III, Group IV and Group V) have higher probability according to their gestation period in to six groups. of getting well compared to the patients of the first two Classification with respect to gestation age is given in groups. Table 4. When the distribution of the patients applied to the The collected data for the group 0 is not sufficient for NICU is investigated, it can be seen that while the majority statistical analysis. Therefore, group based patients’ arrivals of the patients belong to group III, minority belong to group distributions are analyzed for the last five groups. The 0. Thus, it can be concluded that the group III patients has a group-based patients’ arrivals distributions, done with chi- square test statistical analysis, are in an agreement with the Poisson and Geometrical distributions as seen in Table 6. Table 4 The number of admitted patients with respect to gestation Patients’ analysis with respect to treatment level age Group Gestation Year The Total of Patients are directed by the doctors to the levels (Level I, age (week) Groups Level II and Level III) according to the necessary 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 equipment and medical staff needed for their treatments. 0 21–25 7 9 8 9 10 43 The LOS of the emergency patients and planned patients 1 26–28 52 60 46 60 57 275 were described using either the negative exponential curve 2 29–32 122 116 129 136 167 670 or a Weibull curve fitting routine [31]. Tu et al. [32] have 3 33–37 161 220 200 246 209 1036 used discriminate analysis for post-operative prediction of 4 38–42 236 178 122 120 56 712 LOS. A monogram is described for predicting the LOS of 5 43– 38 73 140 139 119 509 neonatal patients [33]. Utley et al. [29] assumed that the Total 616 656 645 710 618 3245 time a patient stays in a particular pool of beds before either
  • 6. J Med Syst Table 5 Departure reasons of the patients based on their gestation age Reasons Group (Gestation Age (week)) 0 (21–25) 1 (26–28) 2 (29–32) 3 (33–37) 4 (38–42) 5 (43– ) The number of % The number of % The number of % The number of % The number of % The number of % patients patients patients patients patients patients Getting well 10 24 139 54 480 79 847 88 570 82 371 79 Transmitting 0 0 14 6 41 7 60 6,2 48 7 42 9 Death 32 76 103 40 84 14 56 5,8 74 11 58 12 Table 6 Group based patient arrivals and statistical distribution parameters Group Gestation Chi-Square Significance Distribution Parameter age (week) (p) 0 21–25 - - - - 1 26–28 0,05 0,81 Geometric p=0,86959 2 29–32 5,24 0,07 Poisson λ=0,36344 3 33–37 3,8 0,15 Poisson λ=0,56103 4 38–42 3,7 0,054 Geometric p=0,72385 5 43– 1,62 0,44 Poisson λ=0,27805 Table 7 Level based patient arrivals’ and LOS distributions and parameters Arrival LOS Distribution Test Distribution Test Level I Poisson (λ=0,24725) K-S (0.0144 < 0.56) Lognormal (μ=1.670 σ=0.998) K-S ( 0.073 < 0.074) Level II Poisson (λ=0,76438) K-S ( 0.0068 <0.56) Lognormal (μ=2.16 σ=0.689) K-S ( 0.087 < 0.098) Level III Poisson (λ=0,63288) K-S ( 0.012 < 0.56) Lognormal (μ=1.54 σ=1.139) Chi-Square (9.01 < 14.06) Table 8 Level based rejected patients’ distributions and parameters Rejected patients Arrival Distribution Test Level I Poisson (λ=0,87097) K-S (0.0422 < 0.565) Level II Poisson (λ=0,97561) K-S (0.0175 < 0.624) Level III Poisson (λ=0,96078) K-S (0.04926 < 0.624)
  • 7. J Med Syst discharge or transfer to the other pool can be treated as distributions will make possible applying methods such as identically and independently distributed. Each level of the simulation, queuing models, and integrated methodologies NICU required different specialized equipments and qual- that combined stochastic and deterministic approaches to ified staff. This requirement level varies from a level to determine the optimal necessary staff or equipments for any another level in the unit. All of these equipment and staff levels of a NICU. This study can further be enriched by requirement for each level based on the patients’ arrivals adding the population-increasing rate. and LOS of the levels. Therefore, in this section the patients’ arrivals and LOS for each level have been obtained by employing the chi-square and kolmogorov- References simirnov (K-S) tests. Considering the levels of the unit, as seen in Table 7 the 1. 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