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Augustine Fou- 1 -
Investment Thesis
Pinterest (2014)
Dr. Augustine Fou
http://linkd.in/augustinefou
acfou @mktsci .com
May 2014
Augustine Fou- 2 -
Executive Summary
THESIS
Pinterest has settled into a more mature pattern of
driving social commerce for retailers. However with the
continued decline of user engagement metrics, we
remain cautious in our outlook as competitive
alternatives (e.g. Facebook Collections) may further
accelerate their declines.
Augustine Fou- 3 -
Bear Case Summary
Augustine Fou- 3 -
1. While overall traffic continues to rise, key user metrics like visits per
user and pageviews per visit continue to decline (trend is established)
2. News volume previously supporting awareness and traffic has waned
(approx half of peak)
3. As a percentage of overall traffic, Pinterest is a small referrer (2%)
compared with search (38%), even though compared with other referrers
it can be equal or higher for certain sites
4. The “dumping” of large quantities of visual content onto Pinterest has
spoiled the value of curation when it was smaller
5. Even if Pinterest could monetize the referrals they drive, using affiliate
revenue sharing, the total revenues are likely to remain small.
Augustine Fou- 4 -
2014 Update
More Data on Social
Commerce Effectiveness
Augustine Fou- 5 -
Social Revenue-per-Visit
Source: Adobe via Marketing Charts Jan 2014
Augustine Fou- 6 -
Social Sharing Destination
Source: Gigya via Marketing Charts Dec 2013
Augustine Fou- 7 -
Polyvore Drives Most Sales
Augustine Fou- 8 -
http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/on
line/user-demographic-highlights-from-
5-major-and-growing-social-networks-
38939/
Social Network Demographics
Augustine Fou- 9 -
Pinterest Has Lasting Effect
Augustine Fou- 10 -
Pinterest Mobile Working Too
Augustine Fou- 11 -
Pinterest vs Facebook Referral
Augustine Fou- 12 -
Search Trends
- 12 -
Web Search: Users
are still looking
for Pinterest
News Search:
News for Pinterest
is half of the peak
in mid-2012
Augustine Fou- 13 -
User Engagement Declining
Source: https://app.compete.com/website/pinterest.com/
User engagement metrics continue slow decline,
despite greater number of users.
Augustine Fou- 14 -
Facebook Collections
Augustine Fou- 15 -
2013 Perspective
Dispelling the Myth
Augustine Fou- 16 -
Reasons for
the Myth
Augustine Fou- 17 -
Pinterest Traffic Exploded
911M
Pageviews /mo
18M
Unique Users /mo
Augustine Fou- 18 -
Media coverage as “Top
Referrer” misleading
Source: Mashable, Feb 26, 2012
“Beginning this summer, Pinterest became
the top social referrer for
marthastewartweddings.com and
marthastewart.com, sending more traffic
to both properties than Facebook and
Twitter combined.”
The darling network of brides-to-be, fashionistas and
budding bakers now beats YouTube, Reddit,
Google+, LinkedIn and MySpace for percentage of
total referral traffic in January, according to a
Shareaholic study. Source: Mashable, Feb 1, 2012
“Pinterest is the fourth largest
source of traffic for Country
Living, up 150% from August to
the end of January, and accounts
for 3% of all referrals.”
Source: Mashable, Feb 26, 2012
Augustine Fou- 19 -
Dispelling the
Myth
Augustine Fou- 20 -
Pinterest compared to
referrers only, ranks in top 5, but
still small
3.6% Google
3.6% Twitter
3.6% Pinterest
26.4% Facebook
7x Pinterest
Augustine Fou- 21 -
Pinterest compared to all
traffic sources, is piddly
1% Pinterest
49% Google
(search)
1% Twitter
Augustine Fou- 22 -
Dr. Augustine Fou – Digital Consigliere
“I advise clients on optimizing advertising
across all channels. When users are moving
away from traditional TV viewing,
advertisers need to find new ways of reaching
them and attracting their attention – and then
converting them into paying customers.”
FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)
MCKINSEY CONSULTANT
CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE
PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST
ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER
PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23
@acfou
ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz
Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/today/author/84444-augustinefou
Augustine Fou- 23 -
Related Articles
Augustine Fou- 23 -
https://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/pinterest-2014-update-by-augustine-fou
http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/listen-for-the-pinterest-pop-by-augustine-fou
http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/the-pinterest-myth-by-augustine-fou-and-tugce-esener
http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/pinterest-is-steady-but-looking-for-business-model-by-
augustine-fou
http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/curation-is-king-by-augustine-fou-digital-consigliere-
25516570
http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/pinterest-brand-porn-by-nicole-luthman-melisa-lopez-
augustine-fou
http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/top-10-fashion-brands-pinterest-vs-google-by-
augustine-fou-images

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Pinterest 2014 Update by Augustine Fou

  • 1. Augustine Fou- 1 - Investment Thesis Pinterest (2014) Dr. Augustine Fou http://linkd.in/augustinefou acfou @mktsci .com May 2014
  • 2. Augustine Fou- 2 - Executive Summary THESIS Pinterest has settled into a more mature pattern of driving social commerce for retailers. However with the continued decline of user engagement metrics, we remain cautious in our outlook as competitive alternatives (e.g. Facebook Collections) may further accelerate their declines.
  • 3. Augustine Fou- 3 - Bear Case Summary Augustine Fou- 3 - 1. While overall traffic continues to rise, key user metrics like visits per user and pageviews per visit continue to decline (trend is established) 2. News volume previously supporting awareness and traffic has waned (approx half of peak) 3. As a percentage of overall traffic, Pinterest is a small referrer (2%) compared with search (38%), even though compared with other referrers it can be equal or higher for certain sites 4. The “dumping” of large quantities of visual content onto Pinterest has spoiled the value of curation when it was smaller 5. Even if Pinterest could monetize the referrals they drive, using affiliate revenue sharing, the total revenues are likely to remain small.
  • 4. Augustine Fou- 4 - 2014 Update More Data on Social Commerce Effectiveness
  • 5. Augustine Fou- 5 - Social Revenue-per-Visit Source: Adobe via Marketing Charts Jan 2014
  • 6. Augustine Fou- 6 - Social Sharing Destination Source: Gigya via Marketing Charts Dec 2013
  • 7. Augustine Fou- 7 - Polyvore Drives Most Sales
  • 8. Augustine Fou- 8 - http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/on line/user-demographic-highlights-from- 5-major-and-growing-social-networks- 38939/ Social Network Demographics
  • 9. Augustine Fou- 9 - Pinterest Has Lasting Effect
  • 10. Augustine Fou- 10 - Pinterest Mobile Working Too
  • 11. Augustine Fou- 11 - Pinterest vs Facebook Referral
  • 12. Augustine Fou- 12 - Search Trends - 12 - Web Search: Users are still looking for Pinterest News Search: News for Pinterest is half of the peak in mid-2012
  • 13. Augustine Fou- 13 - User Engagement Declining Source: https://app.compete.com/website/pinterest.com/ User engagement metrics continue slow decline, despite greater number of users.
  • 14. Augustine Fou- 14 - Facebook Collections
  • 15. Augustine Fou- 15 - 2013 Perspective Dispelling the Myth
  • 16. Augustine Fou- 16 - Reasons for the Myth
  • 17. Augustine Fou- 17 - Pinterest Traffic Exploded 911M Pageviews /mo 18M Unique Users /mo
  • 18. Augustine Fou- 18 - Media coverage as “Top Referrer” misleading Source: Mashable, Feb 26, 2012 “Beginning this summer, Pinterest became the top social referrer for marthastewartweddings.com and marthastewart.com, sending more traffic to both properties than Facebook and Twitter combined.” The darling network of brides-to-be, fashionistas and budding bakers now beats YouTube, Reddit, Google+, LinkedIn and MySpace for percentage of total referral traffic in January, according to a Shareaholic study. Source: Mashable, Feb 1, 2012 “Pinterest is the fourth largest source of traffic for Country Living, up 150% from August to the end of January, and accounts for 3% of all referrals.” Source: Mashable, Feb 26, 2012
  • 19. Augustine Fou- 19 - Dispelling the Myth
  • 20. Augustine Fou- 20 - Pinterest compared to referrers only, ranks in top 5, but still small 3.6% Google 3.6% Twitter 3.6% Pinterest 26.4% Facebook 7x Pinterest
  • 21. Augustine Fou- 21 - Pinterest compared to all traffic sources, is piddly 1% Pinterest 49% Google (search) 1% Twitter
  • 22. Augustine Fou- 22 - Dr. Augustine Fou – Digital Consigliere “I advise clients on optimizing advertising across all channels. When users are moving away from traditional TV viewing, advertisers need to find new ways of reaching them and attracting their attention – and then converting them into paying customers.” FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM) MCKINSEY CONSULTANT CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23 @acfou ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/today/author/84444-augustinefou
  • 23. Augustine Fou- 23 - Related Articles Augustine Fou- 23 - https://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/pinterest-2014-update-by-augustine-fou http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/listen-for-the-pinterest-pop-by-augustine-fou http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/the-pinterest-myth-by-augustine-fou-and-tugce-esener http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/pinterest-is-steady-but-looking-for-business-model-by- augustine-fou http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/curation-is-king-by-augustine-fou-digital-consigliere- 25516570 http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/pinterest-brand-porn-by-nicole-luthman-melisa-lopez- augustine-fou http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/top-10-fashion-brands-pinterest-vs-google-by- augustine-fou-images