Presenting to the Minnesota Broadband Task Force in Thief River Falls, September 2012.

1. Shifting from Adoption to Utilization
and the Rise of Mobile Internet
Minnesota Broadband Task Force
September 11, 2012

2. The Technology Adoption Curve

3. Roger’s Theory of Adoption

4. Are we approaching the end of
the adoption curve?
Growth in the adoption of Internet users and broadband has been slowing
in recent years. The leaps in residential adoption rates witnessed from
2003-2009 are now behind us.
Connect Minnesota reported that in 2011 73% of businesses subscribed
to a broadband service – the same number reported in 2010.
As we move forward increases in broadband adoption will continue, but
will be more a function of organic growth and less of function of
intervention.
Accordingly, the focus going forward should be more on helping
Minnesotans maximize their utilization of broadband and less on adoption.

5. Current Broadband Adoption Rate
Source: Pew Data -2011; Connect MN Data – 2011; CRPD Data – 2012
Note: In 2011 the PEW Internet and American Life Project changed their method of measuring broadband. In
2010 they reported a national broadband adoption rate of 66%.

6. The Rise of Mobile Internet
Today I am continually surprised as to how many business emails I
receive originating from mobile devices. Below is a sample of the
signatures in my email inbox from the last month:
Sent from my iPhone;
Sent from my iPad;
Sent from my Samsung Epic 4G;
Sent from my Verizon Wireless Blackberry.
Can we afford to ignore this increasing part of the Internet landscape?
• 88% of American adults have adopted cell phones, with half being
Internet-enabled.
• On September 5, 2012 the FCC announced the “Measuring Mobile
America” program to assess mobile broadband performance.

7. Adoption of Mobile Internet*
* Definition of Mobile Internet for CRPD and PEW is a Smartphone; Uncertain of definition for Connect Minnesota

8. Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer?
Percent of American Adults adopting Home Broadband
Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, April 2012

9. Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer?
Percent of American Adults Adopting a Smartphone
Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, April 2012

10. Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer in MN?
Percent of MN Adults Adopting Home Broadband
Source: Connect Minnesota, 2012

11. Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer in MN?
Percent of Adult Minnesotans Adopting Mobile Internet
Source: Connect Minnesota, 2012

12. Are there Parallels with Telephony?
Over the past few years there has been a steady increase in
the percentage of residential customers who choose to not
maintain a landline and rely on solely on their mobile
phone.
Will we find an increasing number of Internet customers
moving in this direction as well?
Do we have to recognize mobile Internet service as having a
significant share of the market?
Is it time for the Broadband Task Force to recognize mobile
Internet service as broadband?

13. Minority populations are dropping their
landlines or never subscribing
In their 2012 study the Center for Rural Policy and
Development asked respondents “In addition to your cell
phone, do you also have a landline telephone.”
Percent of Respondents reporting No:
Hispanic: 80.2%
Asian: 83.8%
African American: 61.7%

14. The Big Question?
Is Mobile Internet fast enough to meet the
broadband definition of the FCC and the
goals of the Broadband Task Force?

15. Average connection speeds of 4G
LTE in 15 metro markets
Source: Moore B. RootMetrics (2012) Gigaom.com

16. Feasibility and Barriers in Rural MN
• Rollout of 4G LTE is currently limited to metro markets, but the
competition between carriers will change that.
• In 2010 Verizon Wireless established their LTE in Rural America
initiative partnering with rural providers to extend and locally market
4G LTE with download speeds from 5 Mbps to 12 Mbps.
• Verizon Wireless also is marketing their “HomeFusion” product; a LTE
home broadband product marketed as a “last mile” solution for
residential customers out of range of DSL or cable providers.
•These initial efforts will certainly multiply as technology advances; all
wireless carriers rollout their LTE product; and competition continues.

17. Feasibility and Barriers in Rural MN
• Price will continue to be a barrier in these areas.
•The biggest barrier however may be the data caps
that wireless providers currently utilize in their
data plans, as customers that routinely download
movies or perform other high-bandwidth functions
may find the costs simply too high.

18. Two Take-Aways
• Further increases in broadband adoption will
be limited as Minnesotans get closer to the
end of the adoption curve. However organic
growth will continue.
• Mobile broadband is already too diffused
throughout the population for state and
federal agencies to ignore; and should be
integrated into our strategies to ensure
ubiquitous access to broadband.