Michael Hesse, 2010 American Astronautical Society Goddard Memorial Symposium

1. NASA Research & Research Missions: Applications for Space Weather Forecasting Michael Hesse Chief, Space Weather Laboratory NASA GSFC 48th Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium March 10, 2010

3. Observe solar eruptions

5. Instruments operating normally (almost)

6. Current baseline mission (“BOGART”) includes: -Transforming into supporting solar observatory -Coronal imager -Solar energetic particles for forecasting -Solar wind data -3-4h/day RT coverage

8. Instruments operating normally

9. Providing beacon data

10. At 2015 at opposite side of SunBeacon (space weather) data – available ‘immediately’ SECCHI: ~7 256 X 256 images every hour IMPACT: 10 sec aves of B, 1 min aves solar wind moments and selected SEP fluxes PLASTIC: 1 minute resolution selected moments and fluxes SWAVES: 1 minute summaries of alternate frequencies (0.1-16 MHz)

11. STEREO Orbits 4 yr. 3 yr. Ahead @ +22o/year 2 yr. 1 yr. Sun Sun Earth 1yr. Ahead Behind @ -22o/year Earth 2yr. Behind 3 yr. 4 yr. Heliocentric Inertial Coordinates (Ecliptic Plane Projection) Geocentric Solar Ecliptic Coordinates Fixed Earth-Sun Line (Ecliptic Plane Projection)

12. STEREO: Advantage of Perspective STEREO Behind STEREO Ahead SOHO, SDO

13. STEREO: Advantage of Perspective – SW Prediction

15. Inclined geosynchronous orbit

16. Continuous 150Mbps downlink.

17. Dedicated ground station.

18. SWx data with approximate 15min delay

19. Five year prime mission

21. Ionospheric disturbance nowcasting (XUV/EUV flare response)

22. Input for GAIM (Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model)

23. Input for SOLAR2000 (solar irradiance model), for operational atmospheric, ionospheric, and neutral thermospheric wind models

24. First-ever near-realtime XUV and EUV flare monitor

25. Atmospheric Imaging Assembly Space Weather Goals:

26. Irradiance-calibrated images in 8 EUV/X-ray wavelengths

27. Quicklook data (1kx1k images, movies of each wavelength covering past hour & day.)

28. Helioseismic Magnetic Imager Space Weather Goals:

29. Line of sight magnetograms every 50 sec

30. Vector magnetograms every 10 min

31. Essential products to drive models

33. Elliptical orbit around the Sun with perihelion as low as 0.23 AU and with increasing inclination up to more than 30° with respect to the solar equator.

34. Visible, extreme ultra violet, X-rays imaging, in situ plasma and fields

35. NASA: EUV spectrometer (SWRI), Heliospheric imager (NRL), Suprathermal ion spectrograph (APL)

38. Prime Solar Wind information source

39. Fuel reserves until 2017 or 2018

40. Almost full RT coverage

42. 2 S/C, 5.8RE apogee, 600km perigee, 10 degree inclination

43. 2 year nominal mission lifetime

44. The RBSP Space Weather (SW) broadcast will be a transmission like those on ACE and STEREO.

45. NOAA studying ground station optimization.

46. Ground processing for SWx products will be provided by receiving organization(s).

48. Predict their impacts

49. Predict space environment consequences

51. Through LWS TR&T program

52. Models run at CCMC in support of

53. Forecasting centers

54. Research

55. Education

56. Tool development for NASA missions and space weather interests

57. Infrastructure development for transition to operation

58. Collaborations with NSFCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center at GSFC http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov

59. ENLIL Heliosphere Model 3D MHD equations solved from 21.5rs to 2 AU Input at rotating inner boundary (Coronal Models: WSA, MAS) Output Magnetic field Velocity Density Temperature Two operating modes Ambient solution CME modeling using Cone model approximation D. Odstrcil, NASA/GSFC/GMU

60. Magnetic connectivity product Based on WSA/ENLIL, input from AFWA

61. CME Simulation

62. Solar energetic particle forecasts Solar Energetic Particle Forecast model (M. Nunez, U. Malaga) Solar Energetic Particle Forecast model (A. Posner)

63. Magnetopause Position Quiet magnetosphere Active magnetopause position GOES 11&12 geosynchronous. orbit Geosynchronous orbit inside Magnetopause Magnetopause crossinggeosynch. orbit

64. RBSP Data Source for Assimilative Radiation Belt Model (DREAM) GEO & GPS & Polar Observations Data Assimilation Model Modeled HEO Fluxes Measured HEO Fluxes R. Friedel/LANL

65. Neutral Atmosphere Heating Rate Drag effects

66. Innovative Dissemination: iSWA > 180 products iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

67. Innovative dissemination: Google Earth

68. Conclusions NASA SMD missions and priorities are driven by scientific objectives, including the goal to understand Space Weather NASA missions can, do, and will provide substantial and critical space weather information With the growing use of assimilative models, ingestion of NASA-provided data streams can create invaluable input into space science and space weather models NASA is proud of its contributions to real-time Space Weather forecasting, and we look forward to working with the partner agencies in the future.