2011 American Astronautical Society Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium--Tom Jones, Florida Institute for Human & Machine Cognition

1. 49th Goddard Memorial Symposium Thomas D. Jones, PhD tj@space-explorers.org Greenbelt, MD March 31, 2011 Hayabusa Return

2. Report of the NASA Advisory Council Ad Hoc Task Force on Planetary Defense October 6, 2010 http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/490945main_10-10_TFPD.pdf 2

3. NAC Task Force on Planetary Defense Russell L. Schweickart Chairman, B612 Foundation (Task Force Co-Chair) Brian Wilcox Principal Member of Technical Staff Jet Propulsion Laboratory Donald K. Yeomans Manager, Near-Earth Object Program Office Jet Propulsion Laboratory Executive Secretary Bette Siegel Exploration Systems Mission Directorate HQ NASA Richard P. Binzel Professor of Planetary Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology Clark R. Chapman Senior Scientist Southwest Research Institute Lindley N. Johnson Program Executive Near-Earth Object Observations Program HQ NASA Thomas D. Jones Visiting Senior Research Scientist Institute for Human and Machine Cognition (Task Force Co-Chair)

5. Many PHOs will have “worrisome probability of impact”

6. Threshold for concern? Impact probability of 1/1000? 1/100? 1/50?

7. Imperfect information at time deflection decision needed

8. Deflection decision frequency considerably higher than actual impact frequency (20:1, 50:1, 100:1?)

9. International leadership needed: Inevitable risk shifting as impact point point is moved to eliminate risk for all4

11. Minor incremental cost to “other” space missions can yield large increase in PD knowledge

12. Example: Science mission can demonstrate prox- ops algorithms for PD, human exploration

13. Example: NEO’s interior structure, physical properties, and stability of surface materials (for human exploration) aids PD planning 5 Synergies from Planetary Defense(1 of 2)

15. Early integration of PD results in faster maturity of technology

16. Eliminates cost of duplicate flight missions

17. Integrating PD into science and human exploration missions increases overall knowledge return

18. Meets needs of managers, policy makers, scientists, public6 Version 12 Synergies from Planetary Defense(2 of 2)

19. Task Force Recommendations Organize for Effective Action on Planetary Defense Acquire Essential Search, Track, and Warning Capabilities Investigate the Nature of the Impact Threat Prepare to Respond to Impact Threats Lead U.S. Planetary Defense Efforts in National and International Forums

20. 2.3 Short-term Warning: NASA should investigate development of low cost, short-term impact warning systems -- stats on small bodies, science cueing, public outreach 8 http://fallingstar.com/danger.html

21. Space-based NEO Search: Showing orbit geometry when Earth and the spacecraft are on approximately opposite sides of the sun. Earth-based telescopes will detect some NEOs that the space-based telescope will miss during the NEO perihelion passage. The resulting completeness will be better than with any single telescope. Ball Aerospace

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23. Amor

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26. EVA, tools, science, rendezvous, descent, etc.

27. Reduces Operations, Crew, and Program Risk

28. Known environment

29. Can prepare operations skill set

30. Verify mission is within crew capabilities

31. More targets  reduced flight duration, mission ΔV

32. Expanded program flexibility

34. Association of Space Explorers http://www.space-explorers.org Art by Dan Durda