Atlanta real estate market trends for September 2013. Provided by Arthur Prescott and Prudential Georgia Realty. Get the latest details on the Metro Atlanta home sales trends, listing inventory, sales volume and more.

1. Greater
Metro Atlanta
Market

2. 125,000 Homes Sold In 2006. 60,000 Homes Sold in 2010. 2013 Closings
Expected To Be Down Due To Lower Inventory & Higher Fallout Rates.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Metro Atlanta Homes Sold

3. August Closings Down 17.1% Compared To July Closings
YTD 2013 Closings Down 1.8% Compared To YTD 2012 Closings
0
1000
2000
3000
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5000
6000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2012
2013
Metro Atlanta 2013 Closings

4. 817
1526
1790
336
48 7
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
< $100K $100K-
$200K
$200K-
$500K
$500K-$1
mil
$1 mil - $2
Mil
$2 Mil +
Metro Atlanta Closings – August 2013
(Number Of Transactions)
Under $100k Was Over 50% Of Transactions In 2010.
Back to 18% - Reflecting More Normal Distribution.

5. -18.6%
-12.7%
-18.2%
-23.3%
-30.4%
-22.2%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
< $100K $100K-
$200K
$200K-
$500K
$500K-$1
mil
$1 mil - $2
Mil
$2 Mil +
Metro Atlanta Closings
August 2013 Compared To July 2013
All Price Ranges Lower – Reflects “Back To School” Seasonality

6. Listed Inventory August 2011 - August 2013
Residential Detached, Metro Atlanta
Inventory Down 6.3% from August 2012, Down 41% from August 2011
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Inventory Up
24.8% From
February 2013

7. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
< $100K $100K-
$200K
$200K-
$500K
$500K-1 Mil $1 Mil - $2
Mil
$2 Mil +
Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory
(Based On Closed Sales)
Months Of Inventory Up 21% From Last Month.
Reflects Normal “Back To School” Seasonal Slowing.
6 Months Supply Is Considered A Normal Market

8. ASP Down 3.2% From Last Month
But Remains Up 35% In 2013
$184
$201
$217
$233 $240
$249 $256
$248
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Metro Atlanta 2013 Average Sale Prices

9. Metro Atlanta Foreclosure Comparisons
(Data by RealValuator)

10. Chart Shows Index Results January 2010 Through June 2013
Home Values Up 31% From Bottom of February 2012
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan
A
pr
Jul
O
ct
Jan
A
pr
July
O
ct
Jan
A
pr
July
O
cto
Jan
A
pr
Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta
(June 2013 Results - Reported August 2013)

11. 0
20
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120
140 1995
1996
1997
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta
• Peak was July 2007. Current Home Values Remain Below The
Normal Trend Line. But Prices Are Correcting!

12. Prudential
Georgia Realty
Performance

13. 828
4524
747
5178
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
PGR Market
August 2013 Closings Vs. August 2012 Closings
• PGR Closings Were Up 10.8% Compared To August 2012.
• The Market Was Down 12.6% Compared To August 2012.
PGR
Outperforms
The Market
By 23.4%!

14. Information Provided By Trendgraphix.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
PGR HNR KW-AP CB MB SS AFH
YTD Transactions – August 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent

15. Information Provided By Trendgraphix. PGR Numbers Internal.
Current Listing Inventory – August 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
0
500
1000
1500
2000
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3000
3500
PGR HNR MB KW-AP CB AFH SS

16. Economic &
Housing Trends

17. • Georgia Lost 325,000 Jobs In The Great Recession.
• 2012 Restarted Positive Job Growth Trend!
-250,000
-50,000
-25,000
63,400 66,200 76,000
93,100
-300000
-250000
-200000
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
More Jobs In Georgia!
(August 2013 Reports From UGA Terry College of Business/
Georgia State Economic Forecasting Center)

18. Major Group Moves
And More Coming …

19. Rustbelt To Sunbelt

20. 4,944,939
7,377,951
8,256,323
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ARC 20-Cty Population
Forecast Population Growth
20-County Forecast Area

21. Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close
To Their Children & Grandchildren.
Source :Census Bureau
Total Population
Rank of Share
Under 20 20-64 65+ 25-39 45-59
Dallas 6,144,489 3 9 25 1 24
Atlanta 5,271,550 5 6 27 2 19
Phoenix 4,179,427 4 24 15 3 26
Denver 2,466,591 11 5 24 4 12
Riverside 4,081,371 1 27 22 5 27
Houston 5,629,127 2 10 26 6 21
Portland 2,174,631 19 4 19 7 7
Seattle 3,309,347 22 1 20 8 3
Sacramento 2,091,120 12 13 14 9 20
Washington 5,306,125 14 3 23 10 11
Los Angeles 12,875,587 6 17 18 11 23
San Diego 2,974,859 8 14 16 12 25
San Francisco 4,203,898 26 2 10 13 4
Orlando 2,032,496 18 15 8 14 22
Minneapolis 3,208,212 10 7 21 15 6
Chicago 9,522,879 7 16 17 16 18
New York 18,815,988 21 12 6 17 15
Boston 4,482,857 23 8 9 18 10
Cincinnati 2,134,864 9 19 13 19 14
Baltimore 2,668,056 17 11 11 20 9
Detroit 4,467,592 13 18 12 21 5
Philadelphia 5,827,962 16 21 5 22 13
St. Louis 2,802,282 15 20 7 23 8
Miami 5,413,212 24 26 3 24 17
Tampa 2,723,949 25 25 1 25 16
Cleveland 2,096,471 20 23 4 26 2
Pittsburgh 2,355,712 27 22 2 27 1
Metro Atlanta Has The:
•#2 Population Age 25-39
•#5 Population Under 20

22. Atlanta is 56%
Cheaper To Buy!
Metro Atlanta Is 56%
Better To Buy Than Rent

23. • New Household Formation Dropped From 1.2 Mil (2006) To 400,000 (2008)
• Growing To 1.2 Million In 2013. Lots Of Pent-Up Demand.
• 4 Million Students Per Year Graduate From College For Next 10 Years!
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1995-
2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015
U. S. Household Formation Trends
Demand For 1st Time Buyers Will Be Strong!
Source: U.S. Census, JCHS Household Growth Projections, Goldman Sachs

24. Prices Improving and Mortgage Rates Rising.
But Home Affordability Remains Historically Favorable.
207
187 187
197 194
160 154
146 141
116
0
50
100
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250
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
National Housing Affordability Index
(Combination of home prices and mortgage rates)

25. Average Rates Around 8%

26. 4.9 4.9
3.9
4.9
4.4
3.8
5.1
5.0
4.4
5.3
3.5
4.9
4.8
4.7
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
Freddie Mac & Mortgage Bankers Association
30-Year Fixed Rate Forecast (August 2013)
2010 – 2014 Quarterly Averages
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Freddie Mac
MBA

27. Amount Of
Mortgage
3.5%
Mortgage
30-Year
Cost
5%
Mortgage
30-Year
Cost
8%
Mortgage
30-Year
Cost
$200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120
$300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360
$400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600
$500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480
$1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320
Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A
Significant Difference In Home Affordability

28. Metro Atlanta
New Homes
Charts Provided By SmartNumbers and ViaSearch

29. Metro Atlanta Closings
Blue – Resale Red – New Homes
New Homes Closings Up 55% From Last Year. Resale Units In 2012 At Levels Not
Seen Since 2006. But Almost 50% Of Resale Units From Investors Under $200k.

30. Buyer Types For New Homes
First Time Buyers And Baby Boomers Remain Most Active Segments.
We Are Looking To See The 1st & 2nd Move-Up Buyers Return.

31. New Home Permits
New Home Starts Growing Steadily!

32. Metro Atlanta Inventory
(Black Arrow Is Population Trend)
Population Trends Growing Faster Than Inventory