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Arpit amar
Corporate Finance – 2011
Georg Simon Ohm University of applied Science, Nuremberg
Introduction
                              Finance
                              manager
                           Takes two decision



 Investment or capital
                                                 Financing decision
  budgeting decision




 Where to invest or                             How to raise money or
purchase of real assets                         sale of financial assets
Investment decision
     Finance manager


     Explores good
      investment
        projects

   Analyse NPV (net       The difference
    present value)       between Projects
                         value and its cost
   Assumes all cost of
   financing is equity
        financed

   Takes opportunity
    cost of capital as   And calculates
     discount rate           NPV
Financing decision
 When Investment project is financed with equity capital as well as
                          debt capital


      Then this will represent the capital structure of the firm


 Equity capital requires                  The return should be more
  return to be paid to                   then the opportunity cost of
shareholders or investors                           capital


Debt capital requires fixed               Interest is tax-deductible
 interest to be paid to the             expense, so we calculate after
         creditors                             tax cost of debt



   The weighted average of cost of debt and cost of equity taken
       together is called weighted average of capital (WACC)
WACC
 Analyse the cost of raising the equity and debt capital


Takes the weighted
                                     And value’s project
  average of cost


           WACC = Rd( 1-Tc) D/V + RE E/V
                 Rd = cost of debt
                Re = cost of equity
              D= market value of debt
             E= market value of equity
              Tc = corporate tax rate


The formula of WACC works for average projects, where
business risk from equity and debt ratio remains constant


The managers use WACC to discount future cash flows but
 when equity and debt ratios are expected to change , then
            WACC may not give exact results
Calculating Sangria’s WACC
 Sangria is a U.S.-based company whose products aim to promote happy , low stress
                    lifestyles. The book value and market value are :


         Book values , $million                     Market values , $million
Assets     $1000    $500    Debt               Assets    $1250     $500      Debt
value                                          value

                    $500    Equity                                 $750      Equity

           $1000    $1000
                                                         $1000     $1250


                                                In market values : the value of debt
 In book value : the value of debt
                                                 remains same and value of equity
       and equity are equal
                                                    changes from $ 500 to $750


 The given cost of debt is 6%.This               The given cost of equity is 12.4%.
represent interest paid on existing              This represent the expected rate of
   and on new borrowing debt                       return demanded by investors
Sangria’s WACC

  Taking market                                  Debt ratio = 500/1250 = .4
   values for the
calculation of debt
 and equity ratios                              Equity ratio = 750/1250 = .6



The market share price changes from $5 to $7.5.This is the current market price and
  when it is multiplied by number of its outstanding shares , then it increases the
   equity capital and changes equity ratio in overall capital structure. Sangria is
          constantly profitable and pays taxes at the marginal rate of 35%



        Therefore:
  Cost of debt (rd) = .06
 Cost of equity (re)= 0.124               The company’s after- tax WACC is:
 Marginal tax rate (Tc) = .35          WACC= .06*(1-.35)*.4 +.124*.6 =.090 OR 9%
    Debt ratio (d/v) = .4
   Equity ratio (e/v) = .6
Using Sangria’s WAAC for the valuation of project
Suppose there is an investment in the firm of $12.5 million in perpetual crushing machine. The machine
never depreciates and generates a cash flow of $1.731 million per year pre-tax. And overall the project is
                                              average risk



 If the risk involved in project is average then
        we use WACC as a discount rate                         NPV= Initial investment + cash flow /
                    that is 9%                                       discount rate of WACC



      Pre tax cash flow = $1.731 million                               NPV= -12.5 + 1.125 / .09
     Tax at 35% of $1.731 million = .606                                     NPV = 0
    After tax cash flow (c) = $1.125 million




   When NPV is zero then the project is barely acceptable as an investment.
   This states that return from investing $12.5 million in project generates the cash flow of
   $1.125 million which is equals to Sangria’s WACC OF 9%.
    That is: cash flow / investment
    =1.125/12.5*100
    =9%
    Therefore return on investment is equal to cost
Assumptions about WACC
•WACC formula uses after tax cost of debt thereby capturing the value of interest shield


•The formula works for average projects where business risk and debt ratios are expected
to be constant

•When business risk and debt ratios are not constant or expected change ,then use of
WACC is not exactly correct.


•Pre tax cash flows are converted into after tax cash flows as if the project were all equity
financed.

•The project cash flow’s are then discounted by WACC in order to capture the effect from
tax shield


•When NPV is zero then project is barely acceptable stating that the cost of capital and
return from investment are equal
WACC and financial crisis
     Cost of capital assumes risk free rate of return but in practice its not risk free


       Cost of equity capital                                 Cost of debt capital


     Return investors expects                           Interest to be paid by company


 High cost of equity capital makes                     High Cost of debt capital creates
  it compulsory for company to pay                       inflation , increase investors
 risk premium rate of return which                    expectations to cover this inflation
      has to be more than its beta                                     rate



  Need to analyse good investment
                                                       Incapacity to pay back huge debt
              projects.
                                                      may lead to defaults and so credit
 Zero NPV or low NPV projects may
                                                         institution will not lend more
   not be able pay high returns to
                                                       money, investors loose faith and
           shareholders.
                                                      may invest in government bonds,
    Share price and valuation of
                                                      there will be refinancing problems
     company may get affected
Valuing Businesses

When valuing a business as a whole is necessary:

    • Mergers & Acquisition
    • Selling of a business unit
    • Going Public


WACC can be used to value businesses that are financed by debt & equity

Assumption: constant debt ratio


            FCF1       FCF2                 FCFH        PVH
     PV =        +              + ×××+              +
          1+ WACC ( 1+ WACC ) 2
                                       ( 1+ WACC ) ( 1+ WACC )
                                                  H            H




                       Present Value (free cash flow)               Present value
                                                                   (horizon value)
Valuing Businesses
Example: Valuing Rio Corporation

Input data:
     • Rio Corporation is a similar corporation like Sangria
     • Same line of business like Sangria (Assumption: same proportion of debt like
        Sangria)

         ⇒ Sangria's WACC can be used – 9%

Goal:    Calculating the present value of Rio Corporation


Steps to do:
    1. Calculation of free cash flows (FCF)
    2. Estimating horizon value
    3. Calculation of present value
Valuing Businesses

Example: Valuing Rio Corporation




                                             Latest year                  Forecast
                                                       0      1      2       3         4          5           6       7
        1   Sales                                   83.6   89.5   95.8   102.5     106.6      110.8       115.2   118.7
        2   Cost of goods sold                      63.1   66.2   71.3    76.3      79.9       83.1          87    90.2
        3   EBITDA (1-2)                            20.5   23.3   24.4    26.1      26.6       27.7        28.2    28.5
        4   Depreciation                             3.3    9.9   10.6    11.3      11.8       12.3        12.7    13.1
        5   Profit before tax (EBIT) (3-4)          17.2   13.4   13.8    14.8      14.9       15.4        15.5    15.4
        6   Tax                                        6    4.7    4.8     5.2       5.2        5.4         5.4     5.4
        7   Profit after tax (5-6)                  11.2    8.7      9     9.6       9.7        10         10.1      10
        8   Investment in fixed assets               11    14.6   15.5    16.6       15        15.6        16.2    15.9
        9   Investment in working capital              1    0.5    0.8     0.9       0.5        0.6         0.6     0.4
       10   Free cash flow (7+4-8-9)                 2.5    3.5    3.2     3.4       5.9        6.1           6     6.8

            PV Free cash flow, years 1-6           20.3                       113.4 (Horizon value in year 6)
            PV Horizon value                       67.6
            PV of company                          87.9
Valuing Businesses

Example: Valuing Rio Corporation



    Assumptions

    Sales growth (percent)              6,7      7        7       7      4       4        4      3
                                       75,5     74     74,5    74,5     75      75     75,5     76
                                       13,3     13      13      13      13      13      13      13
                                       79,2     79      79      79      79      79      79      79
                                          5     14      14      14      14      14      14      14

    Tax rate, percent                  35%
    WACC                                9%
    Long term growth forecast           3%

    Fixed assets and working capital

    Gross fixed assets                  95    109,6   125,1   141,8   156,8   172,4   188,6   204,5
    Less accumulated depreciation       29     38,9    49,5    60,8    72,6    84,9    97,6   110,7
    Net fixed assets                    66     70,7    75,6    80,9    84,2    87,5     91     93,8
    Depreciation                        3,3     9,9    10,6    11,3    11,8    12,3    12,7    13,1
    Working capital                    11,1    11,6    12,4    13,3    13,9    14,4     15     15,4
Valuing Businesses
Example: Valuing Rio Corporation

Determination of free cash flows:



FCF =     profit after tax + depreciation – investment in fixed assets –
          - investment in working capital

FCF1=     8,7 + 9,9 – (109,6 - 95,0) – (11,6 -11,1) = 3,5 (million $)
FCF2 =    …



Calculation of PV (FCF)


             3.5   3.2      3.4       5 .9     6 .1      6.0
PV(FCF) =        +       +         +        +         +
            1.09 (1.09) 2 (1.09 ) 3 (1.09) 4 (1.09 ) 5 (1.09 ) 6
          = 20.3
Valuing Businesses
Example: Valuing Rio Corporation

Determination of horizon value:

•Long run growth rate: 3%

                         FCFH +1  6.8 
 Horizon Value = PVH =             =          = 113.4
                         wacc − g  .09 − .03 
                        1
 PV(horizon value) =          ×113.4 = $67.6
                     (1.09) 6
 PV(business) = PV(FCF) + PV(horizon value)
                = 20.3 + 67.6
                = $87.9 million


Value of equity = PV(business) – value of debt = 87,9 – 36,0 = $51,9 million
Valuing Businesses
Tricks of the Trade

More than two sources of financing:




                                     D      P        E       
                      WACC = (1 − Tc) × rD  +  × rP  +  × rE 
                                     V      V        V       
Valuing Businesses
Tricks of the Trade

What about short term debt?

     • Leaving short term debt out of calculation is an error
     • No serious error if debt is only temporary or compensated by holdings of cash
       and marketable securities


What about other current liabilities?

     • Usually "netted out" (Net working capital = current assets – current liabilities)
     • Net working capital is entered on the left hand side of balance sheet
Valuing Businesses
Tricks of the Trade

How are the costs of financing calculated?

    • Interrest rate for equity can be retrieved by looking at the stock market (typical
      demand by investors)
    • Getting borrowing rate and D/V and E/V is not difficult
    • Convertible, junk debt,
Valuing Businesses
Impact of the Euro Crisis on valuing businesses

• Inflation leads to increasing interest rates
• WACC is increasing with increasing interest rates

                D      P        E       
WACC = (1 − Tc ) × rD  +  × rP  +  × rE 
                V      V        V       
•Present value decreases with increasing WACC
        FCF1       FCF2                 FCFH        PVH
 PV =        +              + ×××+              +
      1+ WACC ( 1+ WACC ) 2
                                   ( 1+ WACC ) ( 1+ WACC )
                                              H            H



•Key interest rate may increase  higher interest rates (like mentioned above)
•Influence of rating agencies
•Influence of currency exchange rates  Increase / decrease of FCF
APV -Adjusted present value
Estimating the firm or project base case value assuming it is all equity financed and
then adjust this base case value to account for the financing side effects .



 APV = Base Case NPV + sum of PV Impact

  Base Case = All equity finance firm NPV
  PV Impact = all costs/benefits directly resulting from project


    PV impact : Interest rate tax shields (plus)
                 Issuing cost of securities ( minus)
                 Financing packages subsidized ( plus)
APV- Base case
Example : Sangria Perpetual crusher project

 Cost of capital r = 9.84%
 Investment = $ 12.5 million
 Project cash flow = $ 1.125 million (perpetual).


Base –case NPV= -12.5 + 1.125 = -$1.067 million
                          .0984
Project is not worthwhile with all equity financing.
APV-PV (interest tax shield)
Condition I
 The project support with debt of $ 5 million
 6% borrowing rate rD =.06
 35 % tax rate ( Tc=.35)
Annual tax shield = .35 X.06 X 5 = .0105 or $ 105,000.

 Tax shields are constantly rebalanced with debt and with discount rate
r =9.84%
 PV ( interest tax shields, debt rebalanced) = $ 105, 000 = $ 1.067 million
                                                     .0984
APV = sum of base –case value and PV( interest tax shield)
APV = -1.067 million + 1.067 million = 0
APV-PV (interest tax shield)
Condition II
Suppose sangria plans to keep project debt fixed at $5 million
The risk of tax shield is the same of the risk o the debt and we discount at the rate of 6%
  rate on debt.
PV( tax shields, debt fixed) = – 105,000       = $ 1.75 million.
                                    .06
APV = -1.067 + 1.75 =$ .683 million
Now the project is more attractive with fixed debt , the interest tax shields are safe and
  therefore worth more .( if perpetual crusher project fails , the $ 5 million of fixed debt
  may end up as a burden on sangria’s other asset)
APV -Other financial side effects
 Suppose finance by issuing debt and equity
 $ 7.5 million equity with issue cost of 7% = $ 525.000
 $ 5 million of debt issue cost of 2% = $ 100,000
 Assume debt s fixed once is issued and tax shield worth $1.75 million


 APV = -1.067+ 1.75- 0.525 -0.100 = 0.58 million


Note : other financial side affects
               Leasing ( plus) with base case NPV
               subsidies loan from government ( plus)
APV for business
Rio corporation APV valuation

                                  Latest year                 Forecast
                                            0      1      2      3            4          5      6      7
10 Free cash flow (7+4-8-9)               2.5    3.5    3.2    3.4          5.9        6.1      6    6.8

   PV Free cash flow, years 1-6        19.7
   Pv Horizon value                    64.6                          horizon value 6 year    113.4
   Base-case PV of company             84.3

   Debt                                   51      50     49     48           47         46      45
                                                3.06      3   2.94         2.88       2.82    2.76
                                                1.07   1.05   1.03         1.01       0.99    0.97

   PV Interest tax shields                 5

   APV                                 89.3

   Tax rate, percent                    35%
   Opportunity cost of capital        9.84%
   WACC (To discount horizon
   value to year 6)                      9%
   Lomg term growth forecast             3%
   Interest rate (years 1-6)             6%

   After tax debt service                       2.99   2.95   2.91         2.87       2.83    2.79
APV for business
Opportunity cost of capital= 9.84%
APV = base –case NPV + PV ( interest tax shields)
If the debt levels are taken as fixed and tax shield discounted by 6% borrowing rate

     =$ 84.3 + 5.0 = $ 89.3 million.
There is an increase of $1.4 million from NPV , this increase is higher early debt levels.
 APV explore financial strategies with out looking the fixed debt ratio or having to calculate the
  WACC for every scenario.
 APV useful when debt for a project is tied to book value or has to repaid on fixed schedule.
 Leverage buyouts( LBO) – generating cash by selling assets , shaving cost and improving profit
  margins
 APV works fine for LBOs but for WACC can’t use the discount rate to evaluate an LBOs
  because its debt ratio will not be constant.
APV for international investments
 Custom tailored project financing, special contracts with suppliers, customers and
    governments.
 When debt ratio will not be constant , turn to APV
Example
1- In project ,if the competing supplier offers low interest rate project loans or lease of the
    plant in their bids, then NPVs of this loans or lease should be included in project
    analysis
2- A manufacture agrees a guarantee to provide in minimum price this value is also
    addition to project APV –if the market price varies
3- if the government impose cost or restriction such as the investors should park their part
    of incoming money in non interest bearing accounts e.g 2 years, then this period
    calculate the cost of this requirement and subtract it from APV.
Thank you

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A Guide to capital budgeting and need for valuation

  • 1. By Arpit amar Corporate Finance – 2011 Georg Simon Ohm University of applied Science, Nuremberg
  • 2. Introduction Finance manager Takes two decision Investment or capital Financing decision budgeting decision Where to invest or How to raise money or purchase of real assets sale of financial assets
  • 3. Investment decision Finance manager Explores good investment projects Analyse NPV (net The difference present value) between Projects value and its cost Assumes all cost of financing is equity financed Takes opportunity cost of capital as And calculates discount rate NPV
  • 4. Financing decision When Investment project is financed with equity capital as well as debt capital Then this will represent the capital structure of the firm Equity capital requires The return should be more return to be paid to then the opportunity cost of shareholders or investors capital Debt capital requires fixed Interest is tax-deductible interest to be paid to the expense, so we calculate after creditors tax cost of debt The weighted average of cost of debt and cost of equity taken together is called weighted average of capital (WACC)
  • 5. WACC Analyse the cost of raising the equity and debt capital Takes the weighted And value’s project average of cost WACC = Rd( 1-Tc) D/V + RE E/V Rd = cost of debt Re = cost of equity D= market value of debt E= market value of equity Tc = corporate tax rate The formula of WACC works for average projects, where business risk from equity and debt ratio remains constant The managers use WACC to discount future cash flows but when equity and debt ratios are expected to change , then WACC may not give exact results
  • 6. Calculating Sangria’s WACC Sangria is a U.S.-based company whose products aim to promote happy , low stress lifestyles. The book value and market value are : Book values , $million Market values , $million Assets $1000 $500 Debt Assets $1250 $500 Debt value value $500 Equity $750 Equity $1000 $1000 $1000 $1250 In market values : the value of debt In book value : the value of debt remains same and value of equity and equity are equal changes from $ 500 to $750 The given cost of debt is 6%.This The given cost of equity is 12.4%. represent interest paid on existing This represent the expected rate of and on new borrowing debt return demanded by investors
  • 7. Sangria’s WACC Taking market Debt ratio = 500/1250 = .4 values for the calculation of debt and equity ratios Equity ratio = 750/1250 = .6 The market share price changes from $5 to $7.5.This is the current market price and when it is multiplied by number of its outstanding shares , then it increases the equity capital and changes equity ratio in overall capital structure. Sangria is constantly profitable and pays taxes at the marginal rate of 35% Therefore: Cost of debt (rd) = .06 Cost of equity (re)= 0.124 The company’s after- tax WACC is: Marginal tax rate (Tc) = .35 WACC= .06*(1-.35)*.4 +.124*.6 =.090 OR 9% Debt ratio (d/v) = .4 Equity ratio (e/v) = .6
  • 8. Using Sangria’s WAAC for the valuation of project Suppose there is an investment in the firm of $12.5 million in perpetual crushing machine. The machine never depreciates and generates a cash flow of $1.731 million per year pre-tax. And overall the project is average risk If the risk involved in project is average then we use WACC as a discount rate NPV= Initial investment + cash flow / that is 9% discount rate of WACC Pre tax cash flow = $1.731 million NPV= -12.5 + 1.125 / .09 Tax at 35% of $1.731 million = .606 NPV = 0 After tax cash flow (c) = $1.125 million When NPV is zero then the project is barely acceptable as an investment. This states that return from investing $12.5 million in project generates the cash flow of $1.125 million which is equals to Sangria’s WACC OF 9%. That is: cash flow / investment =1.125/12.5*100 =9% Therefore return on investment is equal to cost
  • 9. Assumptions about WACC •WACC formula uses after tax cost of debt thereby capturing the value of interest shield •The formula works for average projects where business risk and debt ratios are expected to be constant •When business risk and debt ratios are not constant or expected change ,then use of WACC is not exactly correct. •Pre tax cash flows are converted into after tax cash flows as if the project were all equity financed. •The project cash flow’s are then discounted by WACC in order to capture the effect from tax shield •When NPV is zero then project is barely acceptable stating that the cost of capital and return from investment are equal
  • 10. WACC and financial crisis Cost of capital assumes risk free rate of return but in practice its not risk free Cost of equity capital Cost of debt capital Return investors expects Interest to be paid by company High cost of equity capital makes High Cost of debt capital creates it compulsory for company to pay inflation , increase investors risk premium rate of return which expectations to cover this inflation has to be more than its beta rate Need to analyse good investment Incapacity to pay back huge debt projects. may lead to defaults and so credit Zero NPV or low NPV projects may institution will not lend more not be able pay high returns to money, investors loose faith and shareholders. may invest in government bonds, Share price and valuation of there will be refinancing problems company may get affected
  • 11. Valuing Businesses When valuing a business as a whole is necessary: • Mergers & Acquisition • Selling of a business unit • Going Public WACC can be used to value businesses that are financed by debt & equity Assumption: constant debt ratio FCF1 FCF2 FCFH PVH PV = + + ×××+ + 1+ WACC ( 1+ WACC ) 2 ( 1+ WACC ) ( 1+ WACC ) H H Present Value (free cash flow) Present value (horizon value)
  • 12. Valuing Businesses Example: Valuing Rio Corporation Input data: • Rio Corporation is a similar corporation like Sangria • Same line of business like Sangria (Assumption: same proportion of debt like Sangria) ⇒ Sangria's WACC can be used – 9% Goal: Calculating the present value of Rio Corporation Steps to do: 1. Calculation of free cash flows (FCF) 2. Estimating horizon value 3. Calculation of present value
  • 13. Valuing Businesses Example: Valuing Rio Corporation Latest year Forecast 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 Sales 83.6 89.5 95.8 102.5 106.6 110.8 115.2 118.7 2 Cost of goods sold 63.1 66.2 71.3 76.3 79.9 83.1 87 90.2 3 EBITDA (1-2) 20.5 23.3 24.4 26.1 26.6 27.7 28.2 28.5 4 Depreciation 3.3 9.9 10.6 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.1 5 Profit before tax (EBIT) (3-4) 17.2 13.4 13.8 14.8 14.9 15.4 15.5 15.4 6 Tax 6 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 7 Profit after tax (5-6) 11.2 8.7 9 9.6 9.7 10 10.1 10 8 Investment in fixed assets 11 14.6 15.5 16.6 15 15.6 16.2 15.9 9 Investment in working capital 1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 10 Free cash flow (7+4-8-9) 2.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 5.9 6.1 6 6.8 PV Free cash flow, years 1-6 20.3 113.4 (Horizon value in year 6) PV Horizon value 67.6 PV of company 87.9
  • 14. Valuing Businesses Example: Valuing Rio Corporation Assumptions Sales growth (percent) 6,7 7 7 7 4 4 4 3 75,5 74 74,5 74,5 75 75 75,5 76 13,3 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 79,2 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 5 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Tax rate, percent 35% WACC 9% Long term growth forecast 3% Fixed assets and working capital Gross fixed assets 95 109,6 125,1 141,8 156,8 172,4 188,6 204,5 Less accumulated depreciation 29 38,9 49,5 60,8 72,6 84,9 97,6 110,7 Net fixed assets 66 70,7 75,6 80,9 84,2 87,5 91 93,8 Depreciation 3,3 9,9 10,6 11,3 11,8 12,3 12,7 13,1 Working capital 11,1 11,6 12,4 13,3 13,9 14,4 15 15,4
  • 15. Valuing Businesses Example: Valuing Rio Corporation Determination of free cash flows: FCF = profit after tax + depreciation – investment in fixed assets – - investment in working capital FCF1= 8,7 + 9,9 – (109,6 - 95,0) – (11,6 -11,1) = 3,5 (million $) FCF2 = … Calculation of PV (FCF) 3.5 3.2 3.4 5 .9 6 .1 6.0 PV(FCF) = + + + + + 1.09 (1.09) 2 (1.09 ) 3 (1.09) 4 (1.09 ) 5 (1.09 ) 6 = 20.3
  • 16. Valuing Businesses Example: Valuing Rio Corporation Determination of horizon value: •Long run growth rate: 3% FCFH +1  6.8  Horizon Value = PVH = =  = 113.4 wacc − g  .09 − .03  1 PV(horizon value) = ×113.4 = $67.6 (1.09) 6 PV(business) = PV(FCF) + PV(horizon value) = 20.3 + 67.6 = $87.9 million Value of equity = PV(business) – value of debt = 87,9 – 36,0 = $51,9 million
  • 17. Valuing Businesses Tricks of the Trade More than two sources of financing: D  P  E  WACC = (1 − Tc) × rD  +  × rP  +  × rE  V  V  V 
  • 18. Valuing Businesses Tricks of the Trade What about short term debt? • Leaving short term debt out of calculation is an error • No serious error if debt is only temporary or compensated by holdings of cash and marketable securities What about other current liabilities? • Usually "netted out" (Net working capital = current assets – current liabilities) • Net working capital is entered on the left hand side of balance sheet
  • 19. Valuing Businesses Tricks of the Trade How are the costs of financing calculated? • Interrest rate for equity can be retrieved by looking at the stock market (typical demand by investors) • Getting borrowing rate and D/V and E/V is not difficult • Convertible, junk debt,
  • 20. Valuing Businesses Impact of the Euro Crisis on valuing businesses • Inflation leads to increasing interest rates • WACC is increasing with increasing interest rates D  P  E  WACC = (1 − Tc ) × rD  +  × rP  +  × rE  V  V  V  •Present value decreases with increasing WACC FCF1 FCF2 FCFH PVH PV = + + ×××+ + 1+ WACC ( 1+ WACC ) 2 ( 1+ WACC ) ( 1+ WACC ) H H •Key interest rate may increase  higher interest rates (like mentioned above) •Influence of rating agencies •Influence of currency exchange rates  Increase / decrease of FCF
  • 21. APV -Adjusted present value Estimating the firm or project base case value assuming it is all equity financed and then adjust this base case value to account for the financing side effects . APV = Base Case NPV + sum of PV Impact  Base Case = All equity finance firm NPV  PV Impact = all costs/benefits directly resulting from project PV impact : Interest rate tax shields (plus) Issuing cost of securities ( minus) Financing packages subsidized ( plus)
  • 22. APV- Base case Example : Sangria Perpetual crusher project  Cost of capital r = 9.84%  Investment = $ 12.5 million  Project cash flow = $ 1.125 million (perpetual). Base –case NPV= -12.5 + 1.125 = -$1.067 million .0984 Project is not worthwhile with all equity financing.
  • 23. APV-PV (interest tax shield) Condition I  The project support with debt of $ 5 million  6% borrowing rate rD =.06  35 % tax rate ( Tc=.35) Annual tax shield = .35 X.06 X 5 = .0105 or $ 105,000.  Tax shields are constantly rebalanced with debt and with discount rate r =9.84%  PV ( interest tax shields, debt rebalanced) = $ 105, 000 = $ 1.067 million .0984 APV = sum of base –case value and PV( interest tax shield) APV = -1.067 million + 1.067 million = 0
  • 24. APV-PV (interest tax shield) Condition II Suppose sangria plans to keep project debt fixed at $5 million The risk of tax shield is the same of the risk o the debt and we discount at the rate of 6% rate on debt. PV( tax shields, debt fixed) = – 105,000 = $ 1.75 million. .06 APV = -1.067 + 1.75 =$ .683 million Now the project is more attractive with fixed debt , the interest tax shields are safe and therefore worth more .( if perpetual crusher project fails , the $ 5 million of fixed debt may end up as a burden on sangria’s other asset)
  • 25. APV -Other financial side effects  Suppose finance by issuing debt and equity  $ 7.5 million equity with issue cost of 7% = $ 525.000  $ 5 million of debt issue cost of 2% = $ 100,000  Assume debt s fixed once is issued and tax shield worth $1.75 million  APV = -1.067+ 1.75- 0.525 -0.100 = 0.58 million Note : other financial side affects Leasing ( plus) with base case NPV subsidies loan from government ( plus)
  • 26. APV for business Rio corporation APV valuation Latest year Forecast 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 Free cash flow (7+4-8-9) 2.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 5.9 6.1 6 6.8 PV Free cash flow, years 1-6 19.7 Pv Horizon value 64.6 horizon value 6 year 113.4 Base-case PV of company 84.3 Debt 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 3.06 3 2.94 2.88 2.82 2.76 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.01 0.99 0.97 PV Interest tax shields 5 APV 89.3 Tax rate, percent 35% Opportunity cost of capital 9.84% WACC (To discount horizon value to year 6) 9% Lomg term growth forecast 3% Interest rate (years 1-6) 6% After tax debt service 2.99 2.95 2.91 2.87 2.83 2.79
  • 27. APV for business Opportunity cost of capital= 9.84% APV = base –case NPV + PV ( interest tax shields) If the debt levels are taken as fixed and tax shield discounted by 6% borrowing rate =$ 84.3 + 5.0 = $ 89.3 million. There is an increase of $1.4 million from NPV , this increase is higher early debt levels.  APV explore financial strategies with out looking the fixed debt ratio or having to calculate the WACC for every scenario.  APV useful when debt for a project is tied to book value or has to repaid on fixed schedule.  Leverage buyouts( LBO) – generating cash by selling assets , shaving cost and improving profit margins  APV works fine for LBOs but for WACC can’t use the discount rate to evaluate an LBOs because its debt ratio will not be constant.
  • 28. APV for international investments  Custom tailored project financing, special contracts with suppliers, customers and governments.  When debt ratio will not be constant , turn to APV Example 1- In project ,if the competing supplier offers low interest rate project loans or lease of the plant in their bids, then NPVs of this loans or lease should be included in project analysis 2- A manufacture agrees a guarantee to provide in minimum price this value is also addition to project APV –if the market price varies 3- if the government impose cost or restriction such as the investors should park their part of incoming money in non interest bearing accounts e.g 2 years, then this period calculate the cost of this requirement and subtract it from APV.

Notas do Editor

  1. Treating the company as a big project Forecasting the company‘s cash flows Discounting future cash flows to present value - Explaining horizon value (terminal value)
  2. Treating the company as a big project Forecasting the company‘s cash flows Discounting future cash flows to present value - Explaining horizon value (terminal value)
  3. Treating the company as a big project Forecasting the company‘s cash flows Discounting future cash flows to present value - Explaining horizon value (terminal value)
  4. Treating the company as a big project Forecasting the company‘s cash flows Discounting future cash flows to present value - Explaining horizon value (terminal value)
  5. Treating the company as a big project Forecasting the company‘s cash flows Discounting future cash flows to present value - Explaining horizon value (terminal value)
  6. Treating the company as a big project Forecasting the company‘s cash flows Discounting future cash flows to present value - Explaining horizon value (terminal value)
  7. Sangria Corporation only had two sources of financing. A real company‘s market value balance sheet has many more entries, for example
  8. Sangria Corporation only had two sources of financing. A real company‘s market value balance sheet has many more entries, for example
  9. Sangria Corporation only had two sources of financing. A real company‘s market value balance sheet has many more entries, for example
  10. Sangria Corporation only had two sources of financing. A real company‘s market value balance sheet has many more entries, for example