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1. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com Global Economic Recession MALING SENSE OF GLOBALFINANCIAL CRISES

2. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com Overview The current global financial crisis & the massive bailout of financial and non-financial institutions have implications for: - Capitalist’s market economy & “Creative Destruction” A “New market economy” Economists’ analytical tool

3. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com What created the crisis? United States housing market bubble that burst (as housing values deviated remarkably from their fundamentals or intrinsic values, hence the correction) Subprime mortgage crisis in the USA leading to high incidence of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures with major adverse consequences for banks and financial institutions around the world

4. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com What created the crisis? Securitization-the innovation that allowed the original lender to offload mortgages before maturity to other investors (spreading risks); served to replenish lender’s funds, originate more loans, earn fees now led to emphasis on originating loans and not on credit quality- any and everyone can qualify.

5. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com Still on what created the crisis…. Securities (in several trillions of US dollars) backed by this subprime mortgages held around the world lost value, leading to large decline in the capital of many banks and credit crisis with the associated contagion effect Speculation (with overleveraged borrowers having several investment properties) Sharp lending & borrowing practices(risky beh.) Falsified and inaccurate credit ratings on MBSs and the borrowers

6. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com On the origin of the crisis General lax in the regulatory environment Failure of self regulation of investment banks Greed (bonuses were tied to “performance”) “Too big to fail” syndrome & moral hazard

7. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com When the bubble burst it led to: (A) Deterioration of asset values (B) Bankruptcies (C) Huge Consolidations (D) Massive government intervention & bailout

8. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com “Creative Destruction” & The Market Economy Joseph Schumpeter ( a Harvard University Professor) and “creative destruction” [1942] That the market economy has an inherent rejuvenating power to create new ideas, innovate, equilibrate demand and supply, reallocate resources and to sweep non-performing market institutions away That innovative entry of new firms was the force that sustained long-term economic growth as it destroyed the value of non-innovating existing companies

9. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com “Creative Destruction” He is interpreted to mean that the lifeblood of capitalism was “creative destruction” with companies rising and falling to make the economy stronger He also recognized that as corporations are formed, they may nurture values that are hostile to the market economy But that there are penalties for those who operated outside the rules of the market; penalty 4 greed and non market friendly behavior as well as wrong investment decisions

10. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com “Creative destruction” The concept first introduced in 1942 lived on Even as trust diminished and we saw the ascendancy of greed The death of the socialist planning system provided no alternative to the market economy as its superior features (market economy that is) became self–evident especially following the economic successes of Reagan and Thatcher It was this that gave us the structural adjustment program – that recommended pared-back govt. & pronounced any direct government intervention in productive activities as anti-growth and anti-development

11. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com A redefinition of market failure In spite of market determinism, economists have always recognized instances of market failure where government intervention is necessary …but this window was more narrowly defined to our detriment (until now)– it certainly does not accommodate the extent and magnitude of the recent bailouts So what happened to “creative destruction”? Why did we not allow the system to endogenously destroy “bad boys” and their companies?

13. Great advances in ICTs, speed and complexity

14. The bigger the better –with mergers etc.

15. Greed, Absence of Trust & CEOs financial recklessness & false accounting (our examples)

16. Post 9/11 World – “the age of turbulence”

17. Closer link between wall street and main street

18. Great global contagion effect & systemic risks

19. Weak regulation & weak audit technology

20. A system that has privatized profit but socialized risk[Schumpeter did not live in this era]

21. The elements of the “New Market Economy” A new focus on the private & public sector corruption [illicit financial flows] Strong institutions for positive values and cultural orientation (the libertarian world of freedom of choice in a mkt society is a cultural utopia – behave as you wish? No way!) Strong Taxation regime including contingent tax Strong social security provision Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com

22. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com The new reality is defining the features of a “New Market Economy” Very robust regulatory regime Regulating the regulator Strong audit technology by the regulator “Police patrol” or “fire fighting” Capacity for early warning system A regulator of systemic risks Redefinition of market failure Strong role for the state The resurgence of development planning

23. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com The new market economy Rule of law in the strictest sense Would require strong dose of patriotism and democratic ideals Strong corporate governance practices and regulation [Board members need to add value to the institutions they serve] Knowledge-based institutions with technocrats or techno-politicians managing the economy

24. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com Trust is a key element of a market economy Trust – key to most business transactions in the market economy – it affects everything from credit, inter-bank loans to our believe in the system- stock market; regulating institutions; audited accounts etc. Trust is in short supply in Nigeria [the story of participants in my lecture in Lagos]

25. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com Trust Yet you cannot legislate trust or regulate your way out of it – test of probity & character for CEOs essential. The CBN, SEC, NDIC, NSE, ICAN etc. must “shine their eyes” Yes o! The Key is to “Trust but verify!” Property rights combined with the tradition of trust is at the heart of the market economy.

26. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com Economists & their Tools Tools available to economists for the management of the economy have been growing in sophistication, sharpness and robustness especially with the infusion of mathematical modeling into the discipline Economists know a lot about the economy but certainly do not have all the answers…current training and tools are now clearly inadequate [my Arusha, Tanzania experience in the early 90s]

28. Stronger with corrective measures

29. Falls short in the face of current reality – the age of turbulence, greed, great uncertainty and the globalized world

31. sudden burst of the bubble

33. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com The new tools The new market economy requires economists with more than two hands: Those with adequate skills (flexible) Understand the complexity of the globalized world With greater intuition An understanding of social psychology underlying human behaviour beyond the utilitarian approach With a mastery of nuances Very strong understanding and appreciation of new and ever evolving financial products and processes A greater appreciation of science and innovation With an understanding of the Social and governance dimensions of poverty Skills of how to remain globally engaged and yet nationally secure

34. Making Sense of the Global Economic Crisis- arifanees.com Conclusions The world has changed remarkably There is no “industry leader” in the management of the economy Nigeria must manage its economy in its unique way as to remain globally engaged but locally relevant – guided by its own history, experience and knowledge The age of “self-doubt” should be over The New market economy requires state vigilance The way we teach economics has to change