1. The Carbon Cycle - Policy Nexus Robert T. Watson IPCC, Chair COP-6bis Bonn, Germany July 17th

4. Indicators of the Human Influence on the Atmosphere during the Industrial Era

5. Carbon emissions and uptakes since 1800 (Gt C)

6. The Global Carbon Cycle - 1990s Units Gt C and Gt C y -1 The KP seeks to reduce net carbon emissions by about 0.3 Gt C below 1990 levels from industrial countries Atmosphere Fossil Deposits 6.3 63 91.7 60 90 3.2 Plants Soil Oceans 750 500 2000 39,000 About 16,000 1.6 … are leading to a build up of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Fossil emissions ... … and land clearing in the tropics...

8. 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Predicted effects of changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 on the global net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems -- this model shows the sink maximizing in about 2050 and declining to zero by 2100 -- other models tend to show constant or less of a decline after 2050 Global Net Ecosystem Productivity Net ecosystem productivity, Gt C yr –1 Sink Source 4 2 0 – 2

10. The Long-term Challenge Carbon emissions and stabilization scenarios

13. Article 3.3 The net changes in greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals by sinks resulting from direct human-induced land-use change and forestry activities , limited to afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation since 1990, measured as verifiable changes in stocks in each commitment period shall be used to meet the commitments in this Article of each Party included in Annex I. The greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals by sinks associated with those activities shall be reported in a transparent and verifiable manner and reviewed in accordance with Articles 7 and 8. Which stock changes? All, or only those directly human induced - what is included? Can we separate the growth increment due to “normal” forest growth from that due to carbon dioxide, nitrogen fertilization and climate change or year-year climate variability? -- IPCC may be asked to assess this possibility Key Issues for the Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3

15. Potential emissions reductions from forests under CDM (using Art. 3.3 rules) in non-Annex 1 Countries Mt C yr -1 AR D IPCC definitions 373 -1600 Non-Annex 1 Avoided deforestation not eligible under current Pronk text - concern about baselines, leakage, permanence - multiple benefits, including biodiversity, water resource management

16. Article 3.4 … Such a decision shall apply in the second and subsequent commitment periods . A Party may choose to apply such a decision on these additional human-induced activities for its first commitment period, provided that these activities have taken place since 1990. The key issue is whether these activities must commence after 1990 or whether activities initiated before 1990, but that are continued after 1990, are eligible -- a key issue with respect to the current net terrestrial uptake -- Pronk text finesses this issue by discounting for the first commitment period Contrasts with Article 3.3 refers to “direct human-induced activities Key Issues for the Kyoto Protocol Article 3.4

17. Interpretations of Article 3.4 Forest Management Cropland Management Grazing land Management Narrow definition Broad definition USA definition

19. The current text discounts credits for forest management under Article 3.4 by 85%, and limits the use of sinks to 50% of total reductions Accounts for pre-1990 activities, does not separate direct from indirect human activities, and accepts broad definitions

20. I 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Forest management Cropland management Grazing land management Agroforestry Rice Paddies Urban land management Annex 1 Global Contains a best estimate of the rate of uptake of these activities by 2010 (varies between 3% to 80%) -- current text would inhibit investment in forest management under Article 3.4 because of the 85% discounting Annual C sequestration potential (GtC/y) improvement of management within cover type - new activities since 1990

21. Annual C sequestration potential (GtC/y) - change in cover type - new activities since 1990