la diffusione p2p fa davvero così male ai brand di successo?

1. The
impact
of
piracy
(and
P2P)
on
paid
content
sales
Tools
of
Change
–
New
York
February
22,
2010

2. Our
point
of
view
• Intellectual
property
(IP)
maGers
• There
are
niches,
and
Htles,
for
which
piracy
is
a
direct
loss
and
enforcement
makes
sense
• There
are
niches,
and
Htles,
for
which
piracy
may
help
build
awareness
and
trial
to
spur
paid
sales
• This
research
is
structured
to
uncover
which
is
which
2

3. “Perhaps
on
the
rare
occasion
that
pursuing
the
right
course
demands
an
act
of
piracy,
piracy
itself
can
be
the
right
course?”
Governor
Swann,
in
“Pirates
of
the
Caribbean”
(itself
pirated)
3

4. “Free”
is
not
“new”
…
• A
long
and
successful
history
• Galleys,
ARCs,
blads,
sample
chapters
• Digital
sampling
on
the
rise
• A
small
set
of
experiments
using
“free”
digital
content
…
• …
but
no
Htle-­‐level
studies
evaluaHng
the
impact
of
piracy
on
paid
content
sales
4

5. Why
look
at
this
topic
now?
More
BeGer
“Piracy
digital
ebook
threat”
content
readers
5

6. Our
research
approach
Document
Address
Analyze
Assess
IdenHfy
and
assess
data
quality
results
implicaHons
next
steps
prior
work
• Collect
prior
• Use
a
• Measure
Htles
• Compare
the
• Share
the
work
consistent
across
mulHple
presence
of
analysis
• Segment
data
source
publishers
pirated
• Invite
aGributes
(POS
feeds)
• Look
at
content
to
discussion
• Measure
combined
paid
sales
• IdenHfy
data
• Grow
the
gaps
sales
pre-­‐
and
results
sample
post-­‐piracy
The
research
is
data-­‐driven,
open
(without
compromising
publisher
data)
and
structured
to
share
knowledge.
6

7. The
current
sample
set
O’Reilly
Media
Have
been
measuring
the
impact
on
front-­‐list
sales
since
fall
2008
Monitored
BitTorrent
sites;
only
PirateBay
had
more
than
a
handful
of
O’Reilly
Htles
posted
Tracked
acHvity
of
seeds
(uploads)
and
leeches
(downloads)
for
any
2008
O’Reilly
front
list
Htles
found
on
these
sites
Thomas
Nelson
Began
working
with
Thomas
Nelson’s
fall
2009
list
in
August
2009
To
dates,
no
fall
2009
Htles
have
appeared
on
monitored
sites
Lag
Hme
for
Thomas
Nelson
Htles
may
be
longer
than
for
O’Reilly
7

8. What
we
have
learned
so
far
• Low
volume
of
P2P
seeds
and
leeches
• Interest
in
seeded
content
peaks
early
• Lag
Hme
on
P2P
seeding
• Unexplained
“bump”
in
paid
sales
of
O’Reilly
content
afer
piracy
is
noted
8

9. The
number
of
seeds
peaks
quickly
9

10. Leeches
peak
quickly
and
then
decline
10

11. Lag
Hme
before
seeding
varies
Average
=
19
weeks
11

12. Where
piracy
may
help
sales
• “Normed”
the
sales
paGerns
of
pirated
and
un-­‐pirated
content
to
a
common
starHng
point
• PloGed
the
average
sales
per
week
for
pirated
and
un-­‐pirated
Htles
• Uncovered
a
visual
correlaHon
between
piracy
onset
and
unit
sales
Because
of
different
pub
dates,
the
average
Hme
on
sale
for
pirated
content
in
this
sample
is
shorter
(35
weeks)
than
that
for
un-­‐pirated
content
(47)
weeks.
Comparisons
at
the
end
of
the
on-­‐sale
period
are
not
reliable.
12

13. Average
sales
(weeks
afer
pub
date)
Average
week
at
which
seeded
content
first
seen
Unreliably
small
sample
sets
13

14. Average
sales
(weeks
afer
pub
date)
Average
week
at
which
seeded
content
first
seen
Unreliably
small
sample
sets
14

15. Average
sales
(weeks
afer
pub
date)
Average
week
at
which
seeded
content
first
seen
Unreliably
small
sample
sets
+108%
15

16. Four-­‐week
rolling
averages
Average
week
at
which
seeded
content
first
seen
Unreliably
small
sample
sets
16

17. Three
useful
cauHons
• CorrelaHon
isn’t
causality
• Larger
data
sets
may
uncover
a
sample
skew
• What
works
today
may
not
work
as
well
at
some
future
date
17

18. Proposing
a
more
nuanced
model
“White”
“Gray”
“Back
market
market
channel”
• Print
sales
• Unprotected
digital
sales
• Unauthorized
• DRM-­‐restricted
• Galleys,
ARCs
duplicaHon
digital
sales
• “Free”
promoHons
• Pirated
content
• “Trialware”
Our
conHnuing
quesHon:
what
impact
does
piracy
have
on
sales?
18

19. Understanding
piracy
…
• AdopHng
the
reader’s
point
of
view
• The
risk
of
conclusions
with
limited
data
• The
value
of
DRM-­‐restricted
content
19

20. AdopHng
the
reader’s
point
of
view
Chris
Walters,
Booksprung
Kirk
Biglione,
Medialoper
• Release
digital
content
• Provide
a
high-­‐quality
(don’t
frustrate
demand)
consumer
experience
• Don’t
cripple
content
or
• Value
consumers’
Hme
as
limits
its
devices
or
uses
well
as
their
resources
• Provide
high-­‐quality
(not
• Kindle
purchase:
2
clicks
substandard)
digital
ediHons
• Rapidshare
download:
6
• Don’t
try
to
“solve”
piracy;
clicks
think
about
managing
it
20

21. Conclusions
with
limited
data
• AGributor:
piracy
is
a
“$3
billion
problem”
• Macmillan:
a
seven
point
plan
• The
risk:
dialogue
gets
replaced
with
an
urgent
call
to
“do
something”
• We
don’t
know
the
answers,
and
we
should
develop
the
data
to
find
out
21

22. Top
10
pirated
Htles
(maybe)
1. Kamasutra
7. Twilight
–
Complete
Series
2. Adobe
Photoshop
Secrets
8. How
To
Get
Anyone
To
Say
3. The
Complete
Idiot’s
Guide
YES
–
The
Science
Of
to
Amazing
Sex
Influence
4. The
Lost
Notebooks
of
9. Nude
Photography
–
The
Leonardo
daVinci
Art
And
The
Craf
5. Solar
House
–
A
Guide
for
10. Fix
It
–
How
To
Do
All
the
Solar
Designer
Those
LiGle
Repair
Jobs
6. Before
Pornography
–
Around
The
Home
EroHc
WriHng
In
Early
Source:
TorrentFreak,
via
Teleread
(Paul
Biba)
Modern
England
22

23. The
value
of
DRM-­‐restricted
content
• Sony:
DRM
…
“allows
content
creators
and
distributors
to
make
money
from
book
content”
• Reality:
true
pirates
don’t
worry
about
DRM
• We’re
restricHng
the
rights
of
readers
just
in
case
they
turn
into
pirates
• The
value
of
DRM-­‐restricted
content?
Less.
23

24. A
call
to
acHon
• Find
out
where
your
Htles
are
shared
• Establish
the
impact
on
sales
• Invest
in
measurement
on
an
ongoing
basis
• On
your
own
…
or
through
this
work
• Learn
the
right
lessons
from
other
industries
24

25. “Informa<on
wants
to
be
free.
Informa<on
also
wants
to
be
expensive.
Informa<on
wants
to
be
free
because
it
has
become
so
cheap
to
distribute,
copy
and
recombine
–
too
cheap
to
meter.
It
wants
to
be
expensive
because
it
can
be
immeasurably
valuable
to
the
recipient.
That
tension
will
not
go
away.
It
leads
to
endless,
wrenching
debate
about
price,
copyright,
intellectual
property,
the
moral
rightness
of
casual
distribu<on,
because
each
round
of
new
devices
makes
the
tension
worse,
not
beCer.”
-­‐-­‐
Stewart
Brand
(1984)
25

26. For
more
informaHon
• “Rough
Cut”
research
paper
– Includes
this
research
and
future
updates
– Also
provides
background
on
free
and
P2P
– hGp://Hnyurl.com/q3v4b9
• brian.oleary@magellanmediapartners.com
26