Strategies, Models and Tools for managing complex projects and solving wicked problems where there is no clear and simple answers

1. Anton Rossouw Project Director (CPPD) Strategic Approaches and Tools for Managing Complex Projects

2. Overview Why is this important ? What is Complexity and Complexity Theory ? What is a complex project ? Which approaches, models and tools are available ? What may this mean for project management practice ? Where is all this leading ?

3. “I think the next century (21st) will be the century of complexity” Stephen Hawking (1942-!) “I wouldn't give a nickel for the simplicity on this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity.” Albert Einstein (1879-1955) “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” H.L. Mencken (1880-1956) Three wise men…

4. “Project management is the art of creating the illusion that any outcome is the result of a series of predetermined, deliberate acts when, in fact, it was dumb luck” Source: Kerzner, H., (2009), Project Management – A systems approach to Planning, Scheduling and Controlling, 10th edition, John Wiley & Sons.

6. Understanding project failure Roll-Out 2 Projects succeed here ! High Roll-Out 1 Investment / Value ($) Projects fail here ! Mid Space of Opportunity (and high Uncertainty) Projects are constructedto fail or succeed here ! Collapse of Value Low Time

7. Uncertainty in the driving seat! Faced with unknowns and change Trying to come to terms and respond to a myriad of accelerating and connected social, technological, ethical, economic, and ecological changes, pressures and tipping points on both a global scale and local scales. The need to adapt, flourish and grow sustainably as opposed to respond inappropriately, get it wrong, collapse and go extinct. “In the past few years, ever since uncertainty became our insistent twenty-first-century companion, leadership strategies have taken a great leap backward to the familiar territory of command and control” Source: Wheatley, M.J., (2005), Finding our Way – Leadership for an Uncertain, Berrett-Koehler, San Francisco.

8. Yes we can ….

9. The Aim “Explore, make sense of, and understand complex situations and contexts so that we can act appropriately and create the conditions that will lead us to sustainable and progressive futures”

10. Seeing Complexity Source: Sole, R., Goodwin, B., (2000) Signs of Life – How complexity pervades Biology, Basic Books, New York.

11. Ukiyo-e woodblock print - “The Great Wave” by Hokusai from his subscription series, “Thirty-Six Views of Mt. Fuji,” completed between 1826 and 1833.

12. Source: Brian Castellani - Complexity Science Map : http://www.art-sciencefactory.com/complexity-map_feb09.html

13. Location of the knowledge Organic Mechanical Source: Snowden, D. and Stanbridge, P. (2004) The Landscape of Management: Creating the context for understanding social complexity, Emergence, Vol 6 1-2, pp. 140-148

14. Everything is not Complex Complicated System Interrelated parts. Linear behaviour, Predictable. Equal to the sum of its parts. Complex System Connected elements. Non-Linear responses, unpredictable behaviour. Positive and Negative feedback, spontaneous emergence. Cannot be described by analysing the components alone. Source: Cilliers, P. (1998) Complexity and postmodernism: Understanding complex systems, London and New York, Routledge

15. Wicked Problems US Federal Spending www.deathandtaxes.com “Tricare, a health care plan for 2.2 million military retirees, is separate from the VA. The premium is $470 a year, and there’s no co-pay, and the cost is $53 billion a year” Alan Simpson Co-chair deficit reduction commission The war in Afghanistan “When we understand that slide, we’ll have won the war,” General McChrystal

16. Complexity Theory A shift away from the predictability of classical science. A fundamental world-view shift, new integrated multidisciplinary science, still emerging, with various origins, interpretations and definitions. Time driven dynamical systems; that are “living”, learning, evolving and spontaneously self-organising. Open to environmental interaction, nonlinear behaviors, unpredictable emergent phenomena. The behavior of agents in Complex Adaptive Systems. Emergence at the “edge of chaos”.

17. Complexity in action Robot powered by Physarum slime mould. Sources (17 June 2009) : http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2006/feb/15/uknews.robots Jazz Improvisation Evolution of Manchester UK Arab Spring Tipping Point “If a revolution destroys a government, but the systematic patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves… There’s so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.” Robert Pirzig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. Flocking behaviour – 3D Boids: Source (17 June 2009) http://www.navgen.com/3d_boids/index.html http://www.e-ir.info Publication “The Arab Spring of Discontent”

18. Complex Adaptive System Source (22 June 2009) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system

19. Complex Adaptive Systems Many interacting time driven agents, system wide emergence, learning and adaptation, self organising. Rich short-range information exchange, with positive, negative, direct and indirect feedback. Non-linear cause and effect, open to feeding on and exchanging energy from the environment. Historical “memory” of the past influences current action and future evolution, seeking advantage for itself. High energy evolution happens far from equilibrium at “edge of chaos” learning, low fitness leads to collapse. Source: Cilliers, P. (1998) Complexity and postmodernism: Understanding complex systems, London and New York, Routledge

20. What is a complex project ? Responding to a catastrophic event or impending crisis. Something small that may have large impacts. Something creative we have not tried before. Events forcing us to drastically change tack. Innovation required to stay ahead of the pack. A need to explore strategic alternatives. Development of high performance innovative teams. Opposing stakeholder forces and strong conflicts. Carries lots of uncertainty and dynamical oscillations.

21. Traditional view of the project

22. Complexity view of a project Adapted from : Stacey, R.(1996) Complexity and creativity in organizations, San Francisco, Berrett-Koehler Publishers Inc.

23. Ralph Stacey’s Matrix Source: Stacey, R.(1996) Strategic Management and Organizational Dynamics: The challenge of complexity, 1st Ed, Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, N.J. More from www.plexusinstitute.com (Brenda Zimmerman)

24. Complexity and uncertainty Source: Little, T. (2005), Context-Adaptive Agility: managing Complexity and Uncertainty, IEEE Software, May/June 2005.

25. The Diamond Model Technology Super High Tech High Tech Automatic bag-handling system (Required Style) Medium Tech Low Tech Array System Assembly Novelty Complexity Breakthrough Derivative Platform Regular Denver International Airport Construction Project (Actual Style) Fast / Competitive Time Critical Blitz Pace Source: Shenhar, J., Dvir, D., (2007) Re-inventing Project Management – The diamond approach to successful growth and innovation, Boston, Harvard Business School Press

26. Project Complexity Model Cost / Duration Highly Complex Risks, External Constraints and Dependencies Team Composition and Performance Moderately Complex Independent Level of Organization / Commercial Change Urgency / Flexibility Problem / Solution Clarity IT Complexity Political Sensitivity Multiple Stakeholders Requirements Volatility Source: Hass, K., (2009) Managing Complex Projects – A New Model, Management Concepts, Vienna, VA.

27. Cynefin Model Complex Complicated Known- Unknowns Unknown - Unknowns Probe-Sense-Respond Sense-Analyse-Respond Emergent Practice Specialist Practice Order Un-Order Dis-Order Novel Practice Best Practice Sense-Categorise-Respond Act-Sense-Respond Unknowables Known - Knowns Chaotic Simple Source: Snowden, D.J. Boone, M., (2007) A Leader's Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review, November 2007, pp. 69-76.

28. Connection and Control Strength Complex Complicated Weak central, strong distributed Strong central, strong distributed Strong central, weak distributed Weak central, weak distributed Chaotic Simple Source: www.cognitive-edge.com

29. Sub domains and boundary transition Tyranny of the Experts Warm and Fuzzy Distractions Increasing predictability, agent interactions stabilizing Expert knowledge breaks down, increasing agent interactions Complicated Complex Knowledge diffused, system increasingly well understood Agent interactions breaking down Issue requiring expert intervention appear Constraints on system and agents appear Simple Chaotic High uncertain risk of catastrophe Obvious solutions and opportunities to crises appear True Catastrophe Mind-Numbing Bureaucracy Source: www.cognitive-edge.com

30. Flow dynamics Complex Complicated Exploration JIT Transfer Swarming Improvement Standardisation Convergence Divergence Collapse Imposition Chaotic Simple Source: www.cognitive-edge.com

31. Cognitive-Edge tools CynefinContextualisation–Strategic planning Butterfly Stamping – Highlight differences Future Backwards – Clarify perspectives and lessons Anecdote Circles – Narrative understanding and collection Archetype Extraction – Pattern disruption and intervention Safe-Fail Probes – Find the best path, test coherence Ritual Dissent – Challenge entrenchment with diversity Source: www.cognitive-edge.com (open source methods)

32. Agile Project Management

33. SCRUM tools Product Owner, Scrum Master, Diverse Team Poker Planning/Estimation User Stories Product Backlog Task Boards, Burn-down Charts Sprints and Daily Scrums Retrospectives

35. Remember the Future

36. Spider Web

37. Product Box

38. Buy a Feature

39. Start Your Day

40. Show and Tell

41. Me and My Shadow

42. Give them a Hot Tub

43. The Apprentice

44. 20/20 Vision

45. Speed Boat

46. RACI Matrix

47. SWOT Analysis

48. Synesthesia

49. Wizard of Oz

50. World Café

51. Ethos, Logos , Pathos

52. Prune the Future

53. Empathy Map

54. Forced Ranking

55. Post-Up

56. 3-12-3 Brainstorming

57. The Anti-ProblemSources: Gray, D., Brown S., Macanufo, J., (2010) Game Storming – a Playbook for Innovators, Rulebreakers and Changemakers,, O-Reilly Media, Sebastopol, CA. Hohmann, L., (2007), Innovation Games – Creating Breakthrough Products Through Collaborative Play, Addison-Wesley, Boston.

58. 3600 SWAT Teams Radical co-location Multi-skilled Cross functional Pod of 7 + or – 2 never 8 Leadership Emergence Constraints and Freedoms Resources and Tools Self Organisation Artifacts/Products Patterns /Learning

59. Critical Chain Project Management 10% confidence Frequency 95% confidence 50% confidence Task Duration Source: www.ensemblepartners.com.au

60. Strategy and approach The objective of complexity thinking is to make sense of contexts and act adaptively to reach emergent simplicity. Convert initial chaotic and complex starting conditions through contextual sense-making into progressively elaborated “simplified” strategies. Understand the project systemically at first, create appropriate methodology that address components according to their profiles by applying models and tools to accelerate the velocity of understanding/simplification. Remain vigilant by sensing for signals and patterns that may indicate approaching dynamical non-linear state changes that may require further systemic adaptation and asset/resource protection. Delivery risk is lowest where understanding, certainty and simplicity is at its highest (but that’s no guarantee of anything).

61. Complex Adaptive methodology 1 3 2 2 4 3 1 4 High Investment / Value ($) Phase 1 Phase 2 Mid Phase 3 Phase 4 Time Low

62. Sources: www.management30.com and www.agilemanifesto.org

63. Resources for the curious… http://www.emergentpublications.com http://www.plexusinstitute.com http://www.santafe.edu http://www.iq.harvard.edu/blog/ netgov/complexity/ http://www.complexitydigest.com http://www.necsi.edu http://www.chaosforum.com

64. E-mail: anton.rossouw@protegic.com.au Mobile: +61 (0) 439 802 017