A Comprehensive, comparative and independent analysis of 31 African countries and short-term macroeconomic forecasts - uploaded by Aniruddha Yadav

1. African Economic Measuring
Outlook 2007 the Pulse of Africa
Nicolas Pinaud,
OECD Development Centre
经合组织 发展中心
Standard Chartered & the OECD Development Centre
AFRICA AND CHINA:
ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS PERSPECTIVES
Shanghai
16 May 2007

2. 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project?
2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth
3 Africa and Globalization
2

3. African Economic Outlook
Measuring the Pulse of Africa
• Joint publication of the AfDB and the OECD
Development Centre, supported by the EC – 6th
edition.
• Mobilising a network of in-country African experts
& collaboration with WB, IMF, bilateral donors, …
• A resource for policy makers, aid practitioners,
investors, researchers, students, …
• A tool for policy dialogue among African policy
makers (nationally, APRM, …) and with their
partners (EC, G8, OECD)
3

4. African Economic Outlook
An innovative product, an evolving process
• Comprehensive, comparative and independent analysis
of 31 countries and short-term macroeconomic
forecasts.
• Annual focus
• 2003: Privatization
• 2004: Access to energy
• 2005: SME development
• 2006: Transport infrastructure
• 2007: Access to drinking water and sanitation
• Statistical annex, including innovative indicators
4

5. Coverage 2007: 31 African countries
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
AEO 2007
Libya Egypt
Mauritania Niger
Cape verde
Mali
Senegal Chad Sudan Eritrea
Gambia
Guinea-Bissau Burkina Djibouti
Guinea Faso
Benin
Nigeria Ethiopia
Sierra Leone Côte Togo
d'Ivoire Central African
Ghana Republic
Liberia Cameroon
Somalia
Equatorial Guinea Uganda
Congo
Sao Tome et principe Gabon Kenya
Rwanda
Dem.Rep.
Burundi
Congo
Tanzania
91% of GDP Angola
Malawi
Comores
Zambia
86% of population Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Madagascar
Namibia Botswana
Mauritius
Swaziland
Lesotho
South
Africa
5

6. 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project?
2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth
3 Africa and Globalization
6

7. Africa continues to grow strongly
7
6
5
Africa
growth rate
4
3
2
Total OECD
1
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(e) 2007(p) 2008(p)
Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, OECD
7

8. The commodity boom has played an
important role
490
450
410
370
330
290
250
210
170
130
90
50
1
2
3
4
5
6
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
0
0
0
0
0
0
v-
v-
v-
v-
v-
v-
v-
il-
il-
il-
il-
il-
il-
ju
ju
ju
ju
ju
ju
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
ja
ja
ja
ja
ja
ja
ja
Petroleum Copper Aluminium Gold
Source: Worldbank 2007
8

9. Vibrant & stable growth in oil-producing
countries in 2006
Net Oil Exporters Africa Best performing net oil exporters in 2006
(%)
8
Angola
Sudan
7
Congo
Real GDP Growth
Egypt
6 DRC
Nigeria
5 Libya
Cameroon
4 Algeria
Gabon
3 Chad
Equatorial Guinea
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 (e)
2007 (p)
2008 (p)
0 5 10 15 20
Real GDP Growth 2006 (%)
Source: African Economic Outlook 2007 9

10. Growth gaining momentum in oil importers:
Good harvests and booming metal prices…
Oil Importing Countries Africa Best Performing
net oil importers in 2001-2006
8
Kenya
7 South Africa
Net Oil Importers
Real GDP growth (%)
Namibia
6 Tunisia
Africa
Zambia
Ghana
5 Morocco
Net Oil Exporters
Uganda
4 Botswana
Mali
Burkina Faso
3 Tanzania
Mozambique
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(e)
2007(p)
2008(p)
0 5 10
Average Real GDP Growth 2001/2006 (%)
Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007
10

11. …but also fewer bullets & more ballots
Presidential elections in
2006
Benin
Cape Verde*
Chad
DRC*
Gambia
Madagascar
Sao Tome et Principe*
Seychelles
Zambia*
Uganda
*Parliamentary elections as well
Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, Political Indicators
11

12. Despite strong growth rate, progress
towards the MDGs remains slow
Satisfactory Non Satisfactory
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Halve the % of Ensure that all Eliminate Reduce by 2/3 Reduce Halt and Halve the % of
people suffering children can Gender under 5 maternal revers e s pread people without
from hunger Complete dis parity in all mortality rates mortality by 3/4 of Tuberculos is acces s to safe
primary school levels of water
education
Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007 12

13. 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project?
2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth
3 Africa and Globalization
13

14. Africa & globalisation
Noteworthy developments…
New actors, new trends
• New foreign direct investors trade partners :
– the Asian Drivers (China & India), trade & direct investment;
– investors from Africa into Africa (South Africa, North Africa, Nigeria)
• Yield-hungry portfolio investors: Africa, the new investment / credit frontier?
14
Source: World bank, Global Development Finance

15. Africa and Globalization:
... a vulnerable continent?
• Africa’s share in world trade and investment remains minimal (1.5 % & 4% resp.)
and concentrated in raw materials
• Partnering with the Asian drivers: opportunities / risk of further specialization and
of raising the bar for competing in labor intensive industries
15
Source: UN COMTRADE

16. Africa and Globalization:
... Investment in Oil and South Africa
• Foreign investment in Africa is concentrated in
oil exporting countries and in South Africa
4 90
3.5 80
3 70
60
% of Total FDI to Africa
2.5
50
% of World FDI
2
40
1.5
30
1 20
0.5 10
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Total FDIs to Sub-Saharan Africa
Total FDIs to Northern Africa
FDIs to Sub-Saharan Main Oil Producers* & South Africa as a %of total FDIs to Africa (right axis)
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 16

17. Africa and Globalization:
... Slow progress in diversification
The higher the index, the more diversified the economy
Africa
Morocco
DRC
Tunisia
Ethiopia
South Africa
Cameroon
Egypt
Zambia
Tanzania
Algeria
Kenya
Mozambique
Mauritius
Mali
Uganda
Sudan
Senegal
Botswana
Lesotho
Nigeria
Eq. Guinea Cote d'Ivoire
Chad Ghana
Least diversified Africa
Most diversified
Angola
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Source: African Diversification Index, African Economic Outlook 2007 17

18. How can Africa become an active
player in globalization?
• Increase capacity for trade and investment:
maintain macroeconomic stability, improving business
environment, promote diversification
• Use external resources more effectively:
– Capitalize on oil and minerals windfall gains to invest in health,
education and access to basic services
– Use ODA as a catalyst: aid for trade is an instrument for enhancing
Africa’s integration in the global economy.
18

19. Aid must be used strategically
0.40
0.36 140
0.35
0.33 0.33
120
0.30
0.26
100
ODA ($ billion 2004)
ODA as a %
0.25
of GNI
(left scale)
%of GNI
0.22 80
0.20
Total ODA
60
0.15 (right scale)
0.10 40
0.05 Total ODA to Africa 20
(right scale)
0.00 0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
19

20. Aid for trade is on the rise …
and Africa is the 2nd largest recipient
20