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•Business  Risk vs. Financial Risk
•Operating Leverage
•Capital Structure Theory
Business Risk, Operating Leverage
Financial Risk, Financial Leverage
   Uncertainty about future operating income
    (EBIT), i.e., how well can we predict operating
    income?
            Probability             Low risk



                                               High risk


                      0   E(EBIT)                   EBIT
   Note that business risk does not include effect
    of financial leverage.
   Uncertainty about demand (sales).
   Uncertainty about output prices.
   Uncertainty about costs.
   Product, other types of liability.
   Competition.
   Operating leverage.
   Operating Leverage is defined as
    (%change in EBIT)/(%change in sales).
   Operating leverage is high if the
    production requires higher fixed costs
    and low variable costs.
   High fixed cost can leverage small
    increase in sales into high increase in
    EBIT.
   More operating leverage leads to more
    business risk, for then a small sales
    decline causes a big profit decline.
      $         Rev.   $         Rev.
                    TC             } Profit
                                     TC
                                        FC
                    FC
          QBE    Sales     QBE    Sales
Low operating leverage
Probability

                             High operating leverage




                 EBITL      EBITH

    Typical situation: Can use operating
     leverage to get higher E(EBIT), but risk also
     increases.
   Business risk:
    ◦ Uncertainty in future EBIT. It is measured by the
      CV of EBIT or by the CV of ROE of a firm that
      does not use debt (or PS) financing.
   Financial risk:
    ◦ Additional risk placed on common stockholders
      when financial leverage is used. It is measured
      by the increase in the CV of ROE.
    ◦ Financial risk depends on the amount of debt (or
      preferred stock) financing the firm uses.


                                                          8
   Two firms with the same operating leverage,
    business risk, and probability distribution of EBIT.
   Only differ with respect to their use of debt (capital
    structure).

       Firm U               Firm L
       No debt              $5,000 of 8% debt
       $20,000 in assets    $20,000 in assets
       40% tax rate         40% tax rate
   Economic State   Probability   EBIT

   Bad                  0.20      $500
   Average              0.50      $600
   Good                 0.30      $700
E(EBIT) = Σ EBITi . Pi

                n                            2

                     EBIT   i
                                E ( EBIT )       Pi
               i 1




             CV = σ / E(EBIT)
                                                      11
E (EBIT) = (0.20)($500) + (0.50)($600) +(0.30)($700)=$610

        EBIT   =       ($500 - $610)2 (0.20) +
                       ($600 - $610)2 (0.50) +
                       ($700 - $610)2 (0.30)

               = $70

      CVEBIT = $70 / $610 = 0.115 (Business Risk)
   Total risk is the risk born by the
    stockholders. It is measured by the volatility
    of ROE.
   Total Risk = Business Risk + Financial Risk
   Only firms that use financial leverage (e.g.,
    debt or PS) would have financial risk.
   Firms that use no financial leverage would
    have only business risk. These firms’ total
    risk is equal to their business risk, i.e., the
    volatility of their ROE would be the same as
    the volatility of their EBIT.


                                                      13
Economy
              Bad     Avg.     Good
Prob.          0.20     0.50      0.30
EBIT           $500     $600     $700
Interest           0       0         0
EBT            $500     $600     $700
Taxes (40%)     200      240       280
NI             $300     $360     $420

ROE           6%       9%       12%
Economy
              Bad     Avg.      Good
Prob.          0.20     0.50      0.30
EBIT           $500     $600      $700
Interest        400      400       400
EBT            $100     $200      $300
Taxes (40%)      40        80      120
NI              $60     $120      $180

ROE           6%        12%      18%
Firm U has only business risk and
        no financial risk

 E (ROE) = (0.20)(6%) + (0.50)(9%) +
         (0.30)(12%) = 9.3%

     ROE   =    (6-9.3)2 (0.20) + (9-9.3)2 (0.50)
                (12-9.3)2 (0.30)
           = 2.1%

   CVROE = 2.1% / 9.3%
           = 0.226 (Total Risk )

                                                    16
Firm L has financial risk
              in addition to business risk

E (ROE) = (0.20)(6%) + (0.50)(12%) + (0.30)(18%)
       = 12.6%

    ROE   =        (6-12.6)2 (0.20) + (12-12.6)2(0.50)
                   (18-12.6)2 (0.30)
          = 4.2%

 CVROE = 4.2% / 12.6% = 0.333 (Total Risk)

  Fin. Risk = Total Risk (0.333) - Bus. Risk (0.115)
                     =0.218
                                                         17
CV(U)=0.226
                                       CV(L)=0.333
     Probability
                   Firm U
                                            Firm L

                     6%     9% 12%    12%    18% ROE

Firm L has a higher expected ROE but it also has more
risk because in addition to business risk it also has
financial risk.
                                                        18
   MM theory
    ◦ Zero taxes
    ◦ Corporate taxes
   Trade-off theory
   Signaling theory
   Pecking order

                        19
   MM assume: (1) no transactions costs; (2)
    individuals can borrow at the same rate
    as corporations.
   MM prove that there would be no
    difference between firms using leverage
    or investors borrowing and investing
    (home made leverage). The total values of
    Firm U and Firm L should be equal:
    VL = VU
   Therefore, capital structure is irrelevant.

                                              20
$




VU             VL



     Financial Leverage

                          21
   Corporate tax laws allow interest to be
    deducted, which reduces taxes paid by
    levered firms.
   MM show that the total CF to Firm L’s
    investors is equal to the total CF to Firm U’s
    investor plus an additional amount due to
    interest deductibility:
    VL = VU + TD
   If T=40%, then every dollar of debt adds 40
    cents of extra value to firm.
                                                  22
Value of Firm

                                     VL = VU + TD
                                TD
                                     VU


     0                     Financial Leverage

 Under MM with corporate taxes, the firm’s value
 increases continuously as more and more debt is
 used.
   MM theory ignores bankruptcy (financial
    distress) costs, which increase as more
    leverage is used.
   At low leverage levels, tax benefits
    outweigh bankruptcy costs.
   At high levels, bankruptcy costs outweigh
    tax benefits.
   An optimal capital structure exists that
    balances these costs and benefits.



                                                24
Tax Shield
Value of Firm
                     Maximum Firm Value



                               VU

                     VL
   0                   Financial Leverage
                Optimal Capital Structure


                   Distress Costs
Choosing the Optimal Capital
    Structure: A Numerical Example

• Currently, the firm is all-equity financed.
• Expected EBIT = $200,000.
• The firm expects zero growth.

• Currently the firm’s rs = 10%; b = 1.0;
  T = 40%; rRF = 4%; RPM = 6%.



                                                26
 bL   = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)]

 rs   = rRF + bL (RPM)

 WACC     = wd (1-T) rd + wce rs



                                    27
% financed with debt, wd    rd
           0%                -
          20%              7.0%
          30%               8.0%
          40%              10.0%
          50%              12.5%




                                   28
   Beta changes with leverage.
   bU is the beta of a firm when it has no
    debt (the unlevered beta). bL is the beta
    of a firm when it uses debt financing
    (leverage).
   Hamada’s Equation showing the
    relationship between bL and bU
         bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)]

                                                29
   20% Debt:
    bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)]
       = 1.0 [1 + (1 - 0.4) (20% / 80%)]
       = 1.15
   30% Debt:
    bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)]
       = 1.0 [1 + (1 - 0.4) (30% / 70%)]
       = 1.257

                                           30
   40% Debt:
    bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)]
       = 1.0 [1 + (1 - 0.4) (40% / 60%)]
       = 1.4
   50% Debt:
    bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)]
       = 1.0 [1 + (1 - 0.4) (50% / 50%)]
       = 1.6

                                           31
   20% debt, bL = 1.15:
     rs   = rRF + bL (RPM)
          = 4% + 1.15 (6%) = 10.9%

   30% debt, bL = 1.257:
     rs   = rRF + bL (RPM)
          = 4% + 1.257 (6%) = 11.54%



                                       32
   40% debt, bL = 1.4:
     rs   = rRF + bL (RPM)
          = 4% + 1.4 (6%) = 12.4%

   50% debt, bL = 1.6:
     rs   = rRF + bL (RPM)
          = 4% + 1.6 (6%) = 13.6%



                                    33
   WACC = wd (1 - T) rd + we rs

   0% debt (current position):

    WACC = 0.0 + 1.0(10%) = 10%

   20% debt:

    WACC=0.2(1- 0.4)(7%)+0.8(10.9%)=9.56%


                                            34
   30% debt:
    WACC=0.3(1-0.4)(8%)+0.7(11.54%)= 9.52%

   40% debt:                    WACC=0.4(1-
    0.4)(10%)+0.6(12.4%)=9.84%

   50% debt:
    WACC=0.5(1-0.4)(12.5%)+0.5(13.6%)=10.55%

                                               35
wd   rd      rs      WACC
             0%    0.0%     10.00%    10.00%
            20%    7.0%     10.90%     9.56%
            30%    8.0%      11.54%    9.52%
Optimal                                        Lowest
Capital     40%   10.0%     12.40%     9.84%   WACC
Structure   50%   12.5%     13.60%    10.55%




                                                  36
   V = FCF1 / (WACC - g) (Gordon’s Formula)
       g = 0, therefore:
    V = FCF / WACC

   FCF = NOPAT = EBIT (1 - T)
    = ($200,000)(1 - 0.40) = $120,000




                                               37
   V = FCF / WACC
   Currently, with no debt:
    V = $120,000 / 0.10
     = $1,200,000
   20% debt:
    V = $120,000 / 0.0956
     = $1,255,230

                               38
   30% debt
   V = $120,000 / 0.0952 = $1,260,504

   40% debt:                            V
    = $120,000 / 0.0984 = $1,219,512

   50% debt
   V = $120,000 / 0.1055 = $1,137,441




                                             39
wd     WACC           Corp. Value
 0%     10.00%         $1,200,000
20%      9.56%         $1,255,230
30%     9.52%          $1,260,504
                 Minimum            Maximum
40%      9.84%   WACC $1,219,512    Value

50%     10.55%         $1,137,441




      The corporation’s value is maximized
           when WACC is minimized.            40
   wd = 30% gives:
    ◦ Lowest WACC
    ◦ Highest corporate value

   But wd = 20% is close. Optimal range is
    pretty flat between 20% and 30%.




                                              41
Optimal Capital Structure

                                               13.6%
                                                            rs
Cost of                              12.4%
Capital                 11.54%
               10.90%
                                                          WACC
   10%                                       10.55%
                9.56%                9.84%
                            9.52%
                                                                 rd(1-T)
                                             7.5%
               4.2%     4.8%        6%



                                x
          0%          20%      30%       40%        50%   Debt/Assets

                            Optimal                                        42
   MM assumed that investors and
    managers have the same information.
   But, managers often have better
    information. Thus, they would:
    ◦ Sell stock if stock is overvalued.
    ◦ Sell bonds if stock is undervalued.
   Investors understand this, so view new
    stock sales as a negative signal.
   Implications for managers?



                                             43
   Firms use internally generated funds first,
    because there are no flotation costs or
    negative signals.
   If more funds are needed, firms then
    issue debt because it has lower flotation
    costs than equity and not negative
    signals.
   If more funds are needed, firms then
    issue equity.


                                                  44

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Anıl Sural - Capital Structure and Leverage

  • 1. •Business Risk vs. Financial Risk •Operating Leverage •Capital Structure Theory
  • 2. Business Risk, Operating Leverage Financial Risk, Financial Leverage
  • 3. Uncertainty about future operating income (EBIT), i.e., how well can we predict operating income? Probability Low risk High risk 0 E(EBIT) EBIT  Note that business risk does not include effect of financial leverage.
  • 4. Uncertainty about demand (sales).  Uncertainty about output prices.  Uncertainty about costs.  Product, other types of liability.  Competition.  Operating leverage.
  • 5. Operating Leverage is defined as (%change in EBIT)/(%change in sales).  Operating leverage is high if the production requires higher fixed costs and low variable costs.  High fixed cost can leverage small increase in sales into high increase in EBIT.
  • 6. More operating leverage leads to more business risk, for then a small sales decline causes a big profit decline. $ Rev. $ Rev. TC } Profit TC FC FC QBE Sales QBE Sales
  • 7. Low operating leverage Probability High operating leverage EBITL EBITH  Typical situation: Can use operating leverage to get higher E(EBIT), but risk also increases.
  • 8. Business risk: ◦ Uncertainty in future EBIT. It is measured by the CV of EBIT or by the CV of ROE of a firm that does not use debt (or PS) financing.  Financial risk: ◦ Additional risk placed on common stockholders when financial leverage is used. It is measured by the increase in the CV of ROE. ◦ Financial risk depends on the amount of debt (or preferred stock) financing the firm uses. 8
  • 9. Two firms with the same operating leverage, business risk, and probability distribution of EBIT.  Only differ with respect to their use of debt (capital structure). Firm U Firm L No debt $5,000 of 8% debt $20,000 in assets $20,000 in assets 40% tax rate 40% tax rate
  • 10. Economic State Probability EBIT  Bad 0.20 $500  Average 0.50 $600  Good 0.30 $700
  • 11. E(EBIT) = Σ EBITi . Pi n 2 EBIT i E ( EBIT ) Pi i 1 CV = σ / E(EBIT) 11
  • 12. E (EBIT) = (0.20)($500) + (0.50)($600) +(0.30)($700)=$610 EBIT = ($500 - $610)2 (0.20) + ($600 - $610)2 (0.50) + ($700 - $610)2 (0.30) = $70 CVEBIT = $70 / $610 = 0.115 (Business Risk)
  • 13. Total risk is the risk born by the stockholders. It is measured by the volatility of ROE.  Total Risk = Business Risk + Financial Risk  Only firms that use financial leverage (e.g., debt or PS) would have financial risk.  Firms that use no financial leverage would have only business risk. These firms’ total risk is equal to their business risk, i.e., the volatility of their ROE would be the same as the volatility of their EBIT. 13
  • 14. Economy Bad Avg. Good Prob. 0.20 0.50 0.30 EBIT $500 $600 $700 Interest 0 0 0 EBT $500 $600 $700 Taxes (40%) 200 240 280 NI $300 $360 $420 ROE 6% 9% 12%
  • 15. Economy Bad Avg. Good Prob. 0.20 0.50 0.30 EBIT $500 $600 $700 Interest 400 400 400 EBT $100 $200 $300 Taxes (40%) 40 80 120 NI $60 $120 $180 ROE 6% 12% 18%
  • 16. Firm U has only business risk and no financial risk E (ROE) = (0.20)(6%) + (0.50)(9%) + (0.30)(12%) = 9.3% ROE = (6-9.3)2 (0.20) + (9-9.3)2 (0.50) (12-9.3)2 (0.30) = 2.1% CVROE = 2.1% / 9.3% = 0.226 (Total Risk ) 16
  • 17. Firm L has financial risk in addition to business risk E (ROE) = (0.20)(6%) + (0.50)(12%) + (0.30)(18%) = 12.6% ROE = (6-12.6)2 (0.20) + (12-12.6)2(0.50) (18-12.6)2 (0.30) = 4.2% CVROE = 4.2% / 12.6% = 0.333 (Total Risk) Fin. Risk = Total Risk (0.333) - Bus. Risk (0.115) =0.218 17
  • 18. CV(U)=0.226 CV(L)=0.333 Probability Firm U Firm L 6% 9% 12% 12% 18% ROE Firm L has a higher expected ROE but it also has more risk because in addition to business risk it also has financial risk. 18
  • 19. MM theory ◦ Zero taxes ◦ Corporate taxes  Trade-off theory  Signaling theory  Pecking order 19
  • 20. MM assume: (1) no transactions costs; (2) individuals can borrow at the same rate as corporations.  MM prove that there would be no difference between firms using leverage or investors borrowing and investing (home made leverage). The total values of Firm U and Firm L should be equal: VL = VU  Therefore, capital structure is irrelevant. 20
  • 21. $ VU VL Financial Leverage 21
  • 22. Corporate tax laws allow interest to be deducted, which reduces taxes paid by levered firms.  MM show that the total CF to Firm L’s investors is equal to the total CF to Firm U’s investor plus an additional amount due to interest deductibility: VL = VU + TD  If T=40%, then every dollar of debt adds 40 cents of extra value to firm. 22
  • 23. Value of Firm VL = VU + TD TD VU 0 Financial Leverage Under MM with corporate taxes, the firm’s value increases continuously as more and more debt is used.
  • 24. MM theory ignores bankruptcy (financial distress) costs, which increase as more leverage is used.  At low leverage levels, tax benefits outweigh bankruptcy costs.  At high levels, bankruptcy costs outweigh tax benefits.  An optimal capital structure exists that balances these costs and benefits. 24
  • 25. Tax Shield Value of Firm Maximum Firm Value VU VL 0 Financial Leverage Optimal Capital Structure Distress Costs
  • 26. Choosing the Optimal Capital Structure: A Numerical Example • Currently, the firm is all-equity financed. • Expected EBIT = $200,000. • The firm expects zero growth. • Currently the firm’s rs = 10%; b = 1.0; T = 40%; rRF = 4%; RPM = 6%. 26
  • 27.  bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)]  rs = rRF + bL (RPM)  WACC = wd (1-T) rd + wce rs 27
  • 28. % financed with debt, wd rd 0% - 20% 7.0% 30% 8.0% 40% 10.0% 50% 12.5% 28
  • 29. Beta changes with leverage.  bU is the beta of a firm when it has no debt (the unlevered beta). bL is the beta of a firm when it uses debt financing (leverage).  Hamada’s Equation showing the relationship between bL and bU bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)] 29
  • 30. 20% Debt: bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)] = 1.0 [1 + (1 - 0.4) (20% / 80%)] = 1.15  30% Debt: bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)] = 1.0 [1 + (1 - 0.4) (30% / 70%)] = 1.257 30
  • 31. 40% Debt: bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)] = 1.0 [1 + (1 - 0.4) (40% / 60%)] = 1.4  50% Debt: bL = bU [1 + (1 - T)(D/S)] = 1.0 [1 + (1 - 0.4) (50% / 50%)] = 1.6 31
  • 32. 20% debt, bL = 1.15: rs = rRF + bL (RPM) = 4% + 1.15 (6%) = 10.9%  30% debt, bL = 1.257: rs = rRF + bL (RPM) = 4% + 1.257 (6%) = 11.54% 32
  • 33. 40% debt, bL = 1.4: rs = rRF + bL (RPM) = 4% + 1.4 (6%) = 12.4%  50% debt, bL = 1.6: rs = rRF + bL (RPM) = 4% + 1.6 (6%) = 13.6% 33
  • 34. WACC = wd (1 - T) rd + we rs  0% debt (current position): WACC = 0.0 + 1.0(10%) = 10%  20% debt: WACC=0.2(1- 0.4)(7%)+0.8(10.9%)=9.56% 34
  • 35. 30% debt: WACC=0.3(1-0.4)(8%)+0.7(11.54%)= 9.52%  40% debt: WACC=0.4(1- 0.4)(10%)+0.6(12.4%)=9.84%  50% debt: WACC=0.5(1-0.4)(12.5%)+0.5(13.6%)=10.55% 35
  • 36. wd rd rs WACC 0% 0.0% 10.00% 10.00% 20% 7.0% 10.90% 9.56% 30% 8.0% 11.54% 9.52% Optimal Lowest Capital 40% 10.0% 12.40% 9.84% WACC Structure 50% 12.5% 13.60% 10.55% 36
  • 37. V = FCF1 / (WACC - g) (Gordon’s Formula) g = 0, therefore: V = FCF / WACC  FCF = NOPAT = EBIT (1 - T) = ($200,000)(1 - 0.40) = $120,000 37
  • 38. V = FCF / WACC  Currently, with no debt: V = $120,000 / 0.10 = $1,200,000  20% debt: V = $120,000 / 0.0956 = $1,255,230 38
  • 39. 30% debt  V = $120,000 / 0.0952 = $1,260,504  40% debt: V = $120,000 / 0.0984 = $1,219,512  50% debt  V = $120,000 / 0.1055 = $1,137,441 39
  • 40. wd WACC Corp. Value 0% 10.00% $1,200,000 20% 9.56% $1,255,230 30% 9.52% $1,260,504 Minimum Maximum 40% 9.84% WACC $1,219,512 Value 50% 10.55% $1,137,441 The corporation’s value is maximized when WACC is minimized. 40
  • 41. wd = 30% gives: ◦ Lowest WACC ◦ Highest corporate value  But wd = 20% is close. Optimal range is pretty flat between 20% and 30%. 41
  • 42. Optimal Capital Structure 13.6% rs Cost of 12.4% Capital 11.54% 10.90% WACC 10% 10.55% 9.56% 9.84% 9.52% rd(1-T) 7.5% 4.2% 4.8% 6% x 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% Debt/Assets Optimal 42
  • 43. MM assumed that investors and managers have the same information.  But, managers often have better information. Thus, they would: ◦ Sell stock if stock is overvalued. ◦ Sell bonds if stock is undervalued.  Investors understand this, so view new stock sales as a negative signal.  Implications for managers? 43
  • 44. Firms use internally generated funds first, because there are no flotation costs or negative signals.  If more funds are needed, firms then issue debt because it has lower flotation costs than equity and not negative signals.  If more funds are needed, firms then issue equity. 44