Workforce 2031: the changing age profile of the workforce in the South West
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Hilary Stevens' presentation on Workforce 2031: the changing age profile of the workforce in the South West
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Workforce 2031: the changing age profile of the workforce in the South West
- 1. Workforce 2031: the changing age profile of the workforce in the South West Hilary Stevens Research Fellow, SLIM
- 12. Local Authority Working age residents per dependent age (2008) Working age residents per dependent age (2031) National Ranking 2008 (out of 354) City of Bristol 2.1 2.3 20 Exeter 2.1 2.3 22 Plymouth 1.8 1.6 55 Swindon 1.7 1.7 66 Bath & NE Somerset 1.7 1.8 74 …… West Dorset 1.1 1.0 347 East Devon 1.1 1.1 349 West Somerset 1.1 1.0 351 East Dorset 1.1 1.0 352 Christchurch 1.0 0.9 354
- 18. Local Authority % working age residents age 50 and over (2008) % working age residents age 50 and over (2031) National Ranking 2008 (out of 354) Isles of Scilly 41.7 25.0 1 West Somerset 36.2 47.5 2 East Dorset 34.7 43.2 6 West Dorset 34.3 43.0 8 Caradon 33.1 38.1 12 Bournemouth 22.6 26.4 280 Plymouth 22.4 25.0 297 Swindon 22.4 29.4 299 Exeter 18.9 20.2 337 City of Bristol 17.8 20.8 346
Notas do Editor
- In contrast, the EU-27 population projected to decrease by almost 39 million people between 2008 and 2050. This will affect most countries….in fact UK only one of seven countries expected to see an increase in the size of the working age population.
- If we look now, within the UK to the Government Offices of England we can see that the South West is expected to be one of the fastest growing – in terms of the working age population. Between 2006 and 2031 increase by over a fifth. Much slower growth in the Northern regions.
- Looking more closely at the South West, we can see that all urban and rural classifications have a similar rate of growth…little in way of pattern.
- If local authority data is mapped – all local authorities increase in working age population. Slower growth towards the east, particularly in Dorset. Faster growth in parts of Cornwall, Devon and the Bristol area. This shows that the South West different set of issues that some European regions. At least economic growth shouldn’t be constrained by lack of workforce.
- BUT…what is important is the balance of the workforce in relation to the size of the dependent population. Treasury interested in this because. Crude measure of the potential ‘tightness’ of the labour market. In 2006, most EU countries had a least 2 people of working age for every person of dependent age – that is children under 16 and those aged 65 and over. UK slightly fewer than average. By 2050, very different situation – average dropped to 1.3. Countries to the right of the graph recorded the fastest drops. Main finding here, is that while the working age population is going to increase in the UK, there are going to be fewer potential workers.
- Changes in pension age mean that in 2031 there will be almost 300,000 more people of working age. This means that the number of people of working age per resident of dependent-age will be 1.4 instead of 1.1. Can see that older people an important resource.
- Difference between local authority areas increases from 23.9 percentage points to 26.7 percentage points.