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Sustainability: a
systems/complexity approach


         Dr. Andrea Berardi
 Lecturer in Environmental Information Systems
    Communication and Systems Department
               The Open University
Unibanco Tecnológico – comerical W/Brasil, 2000.
Ivan Illich (1973) ‚Tools for
             Conviviality‛
‚Elite professional groups . . . have come to
  exert a 'radical monopoly' on such basic
  human activities as health, agriculture,
  home-building, and learning, <. The
  result of much economic development is
  very often not human flourishing but
  'modernized poverty,' dependency, and
  an out-of-control system in which the
  humans become worn-down mechanical
  parts. ‚
Albert Einstein:


 “We can't solve

problems by using

the same kind of

thinking we used

when we created
The dominant worldview:
      reductionism
• Things can be understood by reducing them to
  their constituent components – by studying “the
  parts”, you will understand “the whole”.
Reductionist implications:
• detaching emotion from rationality;
• detaching humanity from nature;
• citizens unable to see the ‚bigger picture‛;
• citizens unable to see the ‚greater
  purpose‛;
• ‚learned helplessness‛.
“India: Pollution Fine Sought Against Coca-Cola”
What is a ‚System‛?
A system emerges from< ‚interdependent
  components which regularly interact and form a
  unified whole‛.




 Um sistema consiste em< ‚componentes
  interdependentes que interagem regularmente e
  formam um todo unificado‛.
Systems have ‘emergent properties’




• ‚the whole is
  greater than the
  sum of its parts‛.
System structure, processes and
           purpose
What connects/flows across system
         components?
• Energy;
• Matter;
• Information.
What is the difference between
  energy, matter and information?

• Energy and matter are ‚causal inputs‛ to
  systems – they directly affect system
  processes.
• Information is instead a ‚sensory input‛
  and is used to predict the occurrence of
  causal inputs or other sensory inputs
  (sometimes at a later time or another
  place).
System structure: ‘individualistic’
          architecture
System structure: ‚egalitarian‛
          networks
System structure: ‚hierarchical
          networks‛
Think of a simple system, and<.

   •<..map its structure;
   •<.. describe its processes;
   •<.. identify its purpose/emergent
    properties.
Nested systems
Simple systems
                  "Reductionism produced a
                  "machine view" of the world, a
                  view captured in the work of Sir
                  Isaac Newton. Metaphorically the
                  world was likened to a sealed
                  clock, a closed
                  system, perpetually running on
                  fundamental laws like "to
• Predictable;    everything action there is an
                  equal and opposite reaction."
• Mechanical;     Hutchins, Systemic
                  Thinking, 1995
The impossible hamster
Complicated Systems
Reinforcing feedback
Tipping points
Balancing feedback
Gaia Theory –
James Lovelock
Feedback and Control
Plan              Act
          Action
         Learning
          Cycle


Evaluate        Observe
Delays
Complex Systems
Chaotic, irregular, unpredictable
            behaviour




Butterfly effect: a small perturbation can
result in significant impacts.
‘Problems’ are Systems
• ‘Tame’ and ‘Wicked’ problems (Rittel &
  Webber, 1973);
• ‘Difficulties’ and ‘Messes’ (Ackoff, 1974).
• ‘Simple’, ‘Complicated’ and ‘Complex’
  problems (Glouberman & Zimmerman,
  2002)
Tackling ‘wicked problems’
Roberts (2000 )identifies the following
  strategies to cope with wicked problems:
• Authoritative;
• Competitive;
• Collaborative.
‚The Power of Networks‛ - Manuel Lima
Who should lead on transforming
   society towards sustainability?
      Enterprise                   Governments
 by developing green           by establishing strong
  technologies and                   regulation.
 mobilising consumers

         No one!                  Communities
  Enterprise is only out to    by creating local self-
 make money, governments       sustaining lifestyles.
     are corrupt, and
communities no longer exist.
Michael Thompson – Cultural Theory

 Individualism       Hierarchy




    Fatalism       Egalitarianism
Robert Costanza – Future Scenarios

    Star Trek     Big Government




    Mad Max           Ecotopia
System Cycles
Creative Destruction -- Joseph
         Schumpeter
Adaptive cycle
Characteristics of systems during different
       phases of the adaptive cycle
• Renewal phase: new organisational forms; innovation;
  creativity.
• Growth phase: increasing organisational complexity;
  diversification.
• Conservation phase: organisational complexity stable;
  optimisation; specialisation; efficiency; resistance.
• Release phase: breakdown of organisational complexity;
  survival.
‘Hard’ systems approach
• Expert led, quantitative, rational.
• Great for predicting the state of simple/complicated
  systems;
• Positivist epistemology;
‘Soft’ systems approach
• Ideal for working through highly complex
  problems where there is uncertainty and
  conflict.
• Better for understanding the less tangible
  elements of problem situations – things
  like human motivation and interaction.
• Constructivist epistemology.
• Qualitative.
• Participatory.
March (1994) argues that we have:


 – problems of memory;

 – problems of attention;

 – problems of comprehension;

 – problems of communication;
Problems of memory
How many can you remember?
Problems of memory
    (experience)
Group 1 Experience
Group 2 Experience
What do you see?
Problems of attention
Problems of communication
Shanon-Weaver Enhanced
 Communication Model
Problems of comprehension
Iain McGilchrist –
„The Divided Brain'
Theory of Multiple Intelligences
Are you analytical or
       intuitive?

If 1 = 5, 2 = 25, 3 = 325, 4 = 4325, 5 =
                    ?
Soft systems approaches try to
accommodate human limitations
 and differences in perspective
‘Complexity Thinking’
            approach
• Self organising: encouraging a system which
  will spontaneously emerge as the actions of
  autonomous participants come to be interlinked
  and co-dependend on each other.
• Evolutionary: the system will be able to change
  its structure and processes as it adapts to
  maintain its viability within a changing,
  dynamic context. In other words, the system will
  be designed to learn from its experiences.
Complexity thinkers:
Kevin Kelly (1995) Out Of Control – The New
 Biology of Machines:

‚As we shape technology, it shapes us. We
 are connecting everything to everything,
 and so our entire culture is migrating to a
 "network culture" and a new network
 economics.‛
Complexity thinkers:
Manuel Castell (2001) The Internet Galaxy -
 Reflections on the Internet, Business, and
 Society:

" the Internet is the technological basis for
   the organizational form of the Information
   Age: the network."
Will complex adaptive machines
        rule the world?
Systemic, Systematic and Evolutionary approaches
                  Systematic             Systemic                  Evolutionary
Philosophy        Mechanistic,           Holistic, relational      Natural selection,
                  reductionist and       and ecological            survival of the fittest
                  atomistic
Process           Authority/Expert led   Participatory,            Self-organising
                                         facilitated, consensual
Reasoning         Rational, linear,      Intuitive, synthesising, Simple rules
                  focused, analytic      non-linear
Communication     Measure, categorise    Participatory, beyond     Interaction limited to
                  and reason with        language,                 instrumental needs
                  written and            metaphorical, visual.
                  mathematical symbols
Problem solving   Remedial solutions     Preventative design       Creative and innovative


Attitude          Objective,             Subjective, pragmatic     Instrumental, goal
                  perfectionist                                    oriented, risk-taking
Systems methodologies and
                techniques
• ‘Hard’ Systems:
   – System Dynamics Modelling;
   – Qualitative System Dynamics (Systems Archetypes);
   – Viable Systems Model;

• ‘Soft’ Systems:
   –   Soft Systems Methodology;
   –   Critical Systems Heuristics;
   –   Systemic Action Research;
   –   Systemic Grounded Theory and Action.

• ‘Complex’ Systems:
   – Network Analysis;
   – Agent-Based Modelling
Common characteristics of systems
  methodologies and techniques
•   Start with an unstructured exploration;
•   Multi- and inter-disciplinary;
•   Blend expertise and participation;
•   Blend of written, numerical and visual
    information;
•   All require the construction of a systems model;
•   Interventions through identifying points of
    leverage within the system of interest;
•   Emphasis on social learning;
•   Iterative
T863 Environmental Decision-
     Making Framework
Explore the situation
• Decide on which rung of the ‚ladder of participation‛ to
  involve stakeholders (Arnstein, 1969).
Explore the situation
• Unstructured, intuitive, visual exploration
  often using diagramming techniques such
  as the ‘rich picture’ and/or ‘spray
  diagrams’;
Explore the situation
Facilitator(s) and participants need to be
  explicit about their values, experiences
  and interests;
  – What is the nature of your stakeholding?
  – What role do you play in the situation?
  – Are you a beneficiary? Victim?
Formulate systems of interest
• Establish system boundary, components,
  structure and processes.
• Use diagramming techniques such as
  systems map; influence diagram; multiple
  cause diagram; and causal loop diagram.
Identify feasible and desirable
                changes
• Creative problem solving entails an innovative
  ability to make connections between wholly
  unrelated perspectives or ideas.
• Identify points of leverage within the system of
  interest and at various system scales.
• Change system structures and processes.
• Introduce new system(s).
• Assess feasibility and negotiate desirable
  options.
Take action
• The impact of interventions within
  complex systems are rarely predictable.
Iteration
• Always collect data/opinions on the impact of
  actions, including perspective from
  stakeholders.
• Always start with an unstructured exploration,
  even if you think you know the system.
• Ideally, bring in new perspectives.
• Tendency towards rationalisation – remember to
  keep a balance between right and left brain!
How would you implement
    systemic action learning within
           your classroom?
• Problem-based learning.
• Multi-, inter-, trans-disciplinary lessons.
• Learning outside of the class in the ‚real world‛
• Practice what you preach: non-hierarchical,
  egalitarian structures and processes.
• Promote relational, visual forms of
  communication.
• Complex systems never produce simple ‚right‛
  answers.
Stafford Beer, 1974, Designing
            Freedom, pp 60-61
• "Every pupil is a high-variety organism, and the process of education
  essentially constrains variety. In other words, the pupil is capable of
  generating many responses to the question: what is six multiplied by seven;
  the educator will seek to attenuate this potential variety to the single
  answer: forty-two. But if we take a different kind of example, we may find
  ourselves saying something significantly different. The pupil is capable of
  generating many responses to the question: how should a national health
  service be organised? This time, however, we may hope that the educator
  will not attenuate potential variety to the singular answer: like this. No, we
  say; education is a word coming from the Latin: e-ducere, "to lead out". It
  does not mean "to push in". And yet it remains true that in any case the
  process of education constrains variety. Anyone who thinks over this little
  paradox for a few minutes can see that, in the second example, the hope is
  that we can teach the pupil ways of attenuating his own variety. We want to
  offer him ways of finding answers, not of enforcing our own."
Activity
• Identify a wicked problem in your
  community which you can work through
  with your class.
• Explain why it's a wicked problem
• Propose a systemic framework for how
  you would tackle the problem
• Provide a brief worked example
  illustrating how you would apply your
  framework to the problem.
“Leite materno contaminado por
agrotóxicos em Lucas do Rio Verde”
Priority interventions?

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Systems for sustainability workshop

  • 1. Sustainability: a systems/complexity approach Dr. Andrea Berardi Lecturer in Environmental Information Systems Communication and Systems Department The Open University
  • 2. Unibanco Tecnológico – comerical W/Brasil, 2000.
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  • 4. Ivan Illich (1973) ‚Tools for Conviviality‛ ‚Elite professional groups . . . have come to exert a 'radical monopoly' on such basic human activities as health, agriculture, home-building, and learning, <. The result of much economic development is very often not human flourishing but 'modernized poverty,' dependency, and an out-of-control system in which the humans become worn-down mechanical parts. ‚
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  • 8. Albert Einstein: “We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created
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  • 10. The dominant worldview: reductionism • Things can be understood by reducing them to their constituent components – by studying “the parts”, you will understand “the whole”.
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  • 12. Reductionist implications: • detaching emotion from rationality; • detaching humanity from nature; • citizens unable to see the ‚bigger picture‛; • citizens unable to see the ‚greater purpose‛; • ‚learned helplessness‛.
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  • 17. “India: Pollution Fine Sought Against Coca-Cola”
  • 18. What is a ‚System‛? A system emerges from< ‚interdependent components which regularly interact and form a unified whole‛. Um sistema consiste em< ‚componentes interdependentes que interagem regularmente e formam um todo unificado‛.
  • 19. Systems have ‘emergent properties’ • ‚the whole is greater than the sum of its parts‛.
  • 21. What connects/flows across system components? • Energy; • Matter; • Information.
  • 22. What is the difference between energy, matter and information? • Energy and matter are ‚causal inputs‛ to systems – they directly affect system processes. • Information is instead a ‚sensory input‛ and is used to predict the occurrence of causal inputs or other sensory inputs (sometimes at a later time or another place).
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  • 29. Think of a simple system, and<. •<..map its structure; •<.. describe its processes; •<.. identify its purpose/emergent properties.
  • 31. Simple systems "Reductionism produced a "machine view" of the world, a view captured in the work of Sir Isaac Newton. Metaphorically the world was likened to a sealed clock, a closed system, perpetually running on fundamental laws like "to • Predictable; everything action there is an equal and opposite reaction." • Mechanical; Hutchins, Systemic Thinking, 1995
  • 39. Plan Act Action Learning Cycle Evaluate Observe
  • 42. Chaotic, irregular, unpredictable behaviour Butterfly effect: a small perturbation can result in significant impacts.
  • 43. ‘Problems’ are Systems • ‘Tame’ and ‘Wicked’ problems (Rittel & Webber, 1973); • ‘Difficulties’ and ‘Messes’ (Ackoff, 1974). • ‘Simple’, ‘Complicated’ and ‘Complex’ problems (Glouberman & Zimmerman, 2002)
  • 44. Tackling ‘wicked problems’ Roberts (2000 )identifies the following strategies to cope with wicked problems: • Authoritative; • Competitive; • Collaborative.
  • 45. ‚The Power of Networks‛ - Manuel Lima
  • 46. Who should lead on transforming society towards sustainability? Enterprise Governments by developing green by establishing strong technologies and regulation. mobilising consumers No one! Communities Enterprise is only out to by creating local self- make money, governments sustaining lifestyles. are corrupt, and communities no longer exist.
  • 47. Michael Thompson – Cultural Theory Individualism Hierarchy Fatalism Egalitarianism
  • 48. Robert Costanza – Future Scenarios Star Trek Big Government Mad Max Ecotopia
  • 50. Creative Destruction -- Joseph Schumpeter
  • 52. Characteristics of systems during different phases of the adaptive cycle • Renewal phase: new organisational forms; innovation; creativity. • Growth phase: increasing organisational complexity; diversification. • Conservation phase: organisational complexity stable; optimisation; specialisation; efficiency; resistance. • Release phase: breakdown of organisational complexity; survival.
  • 53. ‘Hard’ systems approach • Expert led, quantitative, rational. • Great for predicting the state of simple/complicated systems; • Positivist epistemology;
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  • 56. ‘Soft’ systems approach • Ideal for working through highly complex problems where there is uncertainty and conflict. • Better for understanding the less tangible elements of problem situations – things like human motivation and interaction. • Constructivist epistemology. • Qualitative. • Participatory.
  • 57. March (1994) argues that we have: – problems of memory; – problems of attention; – problems of comprehension; – problems of communication;
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  • 60. How many can you remember?
  • 61. Problems of memory (experience)
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  • 66. What do you see?
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  • 77. Iain McGilchrist – „The Divided Brain'
  • 78. Theory of Multiple Intelligences
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  • 81. Are you analytical or intuitive? If 1 = 5, 2 = 25, 3 = 325, 4 = 4325, 5 = ?
  • 82. Soft systems approaches try to accommodate human limitations and differences in perspective
  • 83. ‘Complexity Thinking’ approach • Self organising: encouraging a system which will spontaneously emerge as the actions of autonomous participants come to be interlinked and co-dependend on each other. • Evolutionary: the system will be able to change its structure and processes as it adapts to maintain its viability within a changing, dynamic context. In other words, the system will be designed to learn from its experiences.
  • 84. Complexity thinkers: Kevin Kelly (1995) Out Of Control – The New Biology of Machines: ‚As we shape technology, it shapes us. We are connecting everything to everything, and so our entire culture is migrating to a "network culture" and a new network economics.‛
  • 85. Complexity thinkers: Manuel Castell (2001) The Internet Galaxy - Reflections on the Internet, Business, and Society: " the Internet is the technological basis for the organizational form of the Information Age: the network."
  • 86. Will complex adaptive machines rule the world?
  • 87. Systemic, Systematic and Evolutionary approaches Systematic Systemic Evolutionary Philosophy Mechanistic, Holistic, relational Natural selection, reductionist and and ecological survival of the fittest atomistic Process Authority/Expert led Participatory, Self-organising facilitated, consensual Reasoning Rational, linear, Intuitive, synthesising, Simple rules focused, analytic non-linear Communication Measure, categorise Participatory, beyond Interaction limited to and reason with language, instrumental needs written and metaphorical, visual. mathematical symbols Problem solving Remedial solutions Preventative design Creative and innovative Attitude Objective, Subjective, pragmatic Instrumental, goal perfectionist oriented, risk-taking
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  • 90. Systems methodologies and techniques • ‘Hard’ Systems: – System Dynamics Modelling; – Qualitative System Dynamics (Systems Archetypes); – Viable Systems Model; • ‘Soft’ Systems: – Soft Systems Methodology; – Critical Systems Heuristics; – Systemic Action Research; – Systemic Grounded Theory and Action. • ‘Complex’ Systems: – Network Analysis; – Agent-Based Modelling
  • 91. Common characteristics of systems methodologies and techniques • Start with an unstructured exploration; • Multi- and inter-disciplinary; • Blend expertise and participation; • Blend of written, numerical and visual information; • All require the construction of a systems model; • Interventions through identifying points of leverage within the system of interest; • Emphasis on social learning; • Iterative
  • 92. T863 Environmental Decision- Making Framework
  • 93. Explore the situation • Decide on which rung of the ‚ladder of participation‛ to involve stakeholders (Arnstein, 1969).
  • 94. Explore the situation • Unstructured, intuitive, visual exploration often using diagramming techniques such as the ‘rich picture’ and/or ‘spray diagrams’;
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  • 96. Explore the situation Facilitator(s) and participants need to be explicit about their values, experiences and interests; – What is the nature of your stakeholding? – What role do you play in the situation? – Are you a beneficiary? Victim?
  • 97. Formulate systems of interest • Establish system boundary, components, structure and processes. • Use diagramming techniques such as systems map; influence diagram; multiple cause diagram; and causal loop diagram.
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  • 99. Identify feasible and desirable changes • Creative problem solving entails an innovative ability to make connections between wholly unrelated perspectives or ideas. • Identify points of leverage within the system of interest and at various system scales. • Change system structures and processes. • Introduce new system(s). • Assess feasibility and negotiate desirable options.
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  • 101. Take action • The impact of interventions within complex systems are rarely predictable.
  • 102. Iteration • Always collect data/opinions on the impact of actions, including perspective from stakeholders. • Always start with an unstructured exploration, even if you think you know the system. • Ideally, bring in new perspectives. • Tendency towards rationalisation – remember to keep a balance between right and left brain!
  • 103. How would you implement systemic action learning within your classroom? • Problem-based learning. • Multi-, inter-, trans-disciplinary lessons. • Learning outside of the class in the ‚real world‛ • Practice what you preach: non-hierarchical, egalitarian structures and processes. • Promote relational, visual forms of communication. • Complex systems never produce simple ‚right‛ answers.
  • 104. Stafford Beer, 1974, Designing Freedom, pp 60-61 • "Every pupil is a high-variety organism, and the process of education essentially constrains variety. In other words, the pupil is capable of generating many responses to the question: what is six multiplied by seven; the educator will seek to attenuate this potential variety to the single answer: forty-two. But if we take a different kind of example, we may find ourselves saying something significantly different. The pupil is capable of generating many responses to the question: how should a national health service be organised? This time, however, we may hope that the educator will not attenuate potential variety to the singular answer: like this. No, we say; education is a word coming from the Latin: e-ducere, "to lead out". It does not mean "to push in". And yet it remains true that in any case the process of education constrains variety. Anyone who thinks over this little paradox for a few minutes can see that, in the second example, the hope is that we can teach the pupil ways of attenuating his own variety. We want to offer him ways of finding answers, not of enforcing our own."
  • 105. Activity • Identify a wicked problem in your community which you can work through with your class. • Explain why it's a wicked problem • Propose a systemic framework for how you would tackle the problem • Provide a brief worked example illustrating how you would apply your framework to the problem.
  • 106. “Leite materno contaminado por agrotóxicos em Lucas do Rio Verde”
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