1. Sources of Economic Growth
Factors affecting labor productivity growth are:
1. Physical Capital
2. Human Capital
3. Technological advancement
Population growth increases aggregate hours and real GDP
Study Session 4, Reading 15
2. Preconditions for Economic Growth
Incentive systems
Markets
Clearly established property rights and their enforcement
Monetary exchange
Study Session 4, Reading 15
3. The 1/3 rule
Measure the contributions of an increase in capital per hour
of labor and technological change to the growth of labor
productivity.
Used to divide change in productivity growth in two
components attributed to
1. Change in capital per labor hour
2. Technological change
Study Session 4, Reading 15
4. Three Sources of Faster
Economic Growth
Saving and Investment in New Capital
Investment in Human Capital
Discovery of New Technologies
Study Session 4, Reading 15
5. Main Sources of Achieving Faster
Economic Growth
Stimulate savings
Stimulate research and development
High technology industry targeting
Encouragement of international trade
Improvement in the quality of education
Study Session 4, Reading 15
6. Classical Theory of Economic Growth
When real GDP rises above subsistence level, a population
explosion occurs
Advancements in technology leads to increased investment in
new capital which increases labor productivity.
Increase in real wage rate
Study Session 4, Reading 15
8. Neo Classical Theory
of Economic Growth
Without technological change, no long term growth in real GDP
will occur.
Saving and investments are increased due to changes in
technology which leads to higher capital per labor hour.
Economic growth will only decline if technology stops advancing.
Population growth is independent of economic growth.
People use a target rate of return as the benchmark when they
are making savings decisions.
Growth in labor productivity
Study Session 4, Reading 15
9. New Growth Theory
of Economic Growth
Based on two properties of market economies, (1) discoveries
are the result of choices (2) discoveries lead to profits and
competition eliminates profits.
Discoveries of new products and techniques
The rate at which discoveries are made
Public capital goods and the law of diminishing return
Describes the economy as “perpetual motion economy”
Study Session 4, Reading 15
11. Economic Regulation
Refers to regulations set by government for specific industries.
To reduce the deadweight loss due to monopoly pricing
Two types of regulations of natural monopolies:
1. cost of service regulation - the price a monopolist can charge is
restricted to marginal cost or average cost pricing.
2. rate of return regulation - regulators set the price so that a
competitive rate of return is earned by the monopolist company.
Study Session 4, Reading 15
12. Social Regulation
The main objectives are to protect people from incompetent or
unscrupulous producers.
Include regulations to protect consumers and to improve the
functioning of markets.
Study Session 4, Reading 15
13. Effects of Social Regulation
Increased regulation mostly results in higher production costs.
Higher level of regulation
Firms may attempt to avoid the regulation or minimize the costs.
Study Session 4, Reading 16
14. Merits and Demerits
of Social Regulations
Safer products, cleaner environment and safer workplaces are
some benefits of social regulation
Companies can incur significant expenditures.
Businesses may engage in activities intended to avoid the true
objective of regulation
Firms subject to regulation and not conforming to the intent of
the regulation is referred as a creative response.
Feedback effect is an example of a creative response to
regulation in which consumer’s behaviour is changed due to new
regulation.
Study Session 4, Reading 16
15. Capture Theory of Economic Growth
Regulators will be selected from industry “experts”
Industry participants are able to present more persuasive
argument to regulators
Only the interests of industry participants are of paramount
interest to the regulatory agency
Study Session 4, Reading 16
16. Share-the-gain, share-the-pain Theory
of Economic Growth
The assumption that regulators must worry about legislators and
consumers as well.
Regulators consider the consequences of their decisions from a
viewpoint of all three
Predicts a slower and more measured regulatory response
rather than a speedy and more favourable response to the firms.
Study Session 4, Reading 16
17. Comparative Advantages and Benefits
of International Trade
The lower opportunity cost to produce a product is referred to
as a comparative advantage and is the fundamental source of
gains from trade.
As long as a country has a comparative advantage in producing
some good, both countries can benefit from trade.
A country gains from when it exports the goods in which it has a
comparative advantage and imports those in which it does not
have advantage.
Study Session 4, Reading 16
18. Merits of International Trade
The slope of each country’s production possibility
frontier at its production point represents the opportunity cost
of producing one good in terms of another. This slope is the
opportunity cost of production.
As long as the opportunity cost of production differs between
two countries, both countries can benefit from
Comparative advantage explains the increase in international
trade taking place over time.
The gain from specialization and trade is that both countries can
consume outside their production possibility frontier
Study Session 4, Reading 16
19. Tariffs
A tariff is a tax imposed on imported goods
Tariffs benefit domestic producers because the level of imports
will be reduced due to an effective increase in the price of the
good in the domestic market.
Tariffs provide revenue for the government.
The benefits of free international trade is reduced when tariffs
are imposed.
Study Session 4, Reading 16
20. Quotas
A quota is a limitation on the quantity of goods that can be
imported
Under a quota, the supply of imported goods is reduced.
The key difference between a quota and a tariff lies in who
collects the gap between the exporter’s supply price and the
domestic price. When tariffs are imposed, it is collected by the
government of the country importing the good. In the case of a
quota, it goes to the importer.
The imposition of quotas reduces the competition from foreign
producers which benefit local producers.
Study Session 4, Reading 16
21. Voluntary Export Restraints
Agreements by exporting countries to limit the quantity of goods
they will export to an importing country
The government of an exporting country has to establish
procedures for allocating the limited volume of
Gains are received by firms in the exporting countries that have
export permits.
Study Session 4, Reading 16
22. Primary Reasons for Trade Restrictions
Governments receive tariff revenue
Domestic producers may need protection from foreign
competition
Study Session 4, Reading 16
23. Arguments in Support of Trade
Restrictions with Some Validity
Developing (infant) industries should be protected until they
reach a globally competitive standard of quality and productivity.
Exporters should be prohibited from selling goods at less then
their production cost in foreign countries.
Trade restrictions should protect those industries which are
associated with national defence.
Study Session 4, Reading 16
24. Arguments in Support of Trade
Restrictions with Little Validity
Trade restrictions protect domestic jobs
Trade restrictions create jobs
Allow country to compete with cheap foreign labor
Bring diversity and stability
Trade restrictions protect national culture
Trade restrictions prevent rich countries from exploiting
developing countries
Study Session 4, Reading 16
25. Direct Quotations
Direct quotation of currency X is the value of one unit of
currency X in units of the counter currency, currency Y.
The quotation 0.75 CAD: USD is an example of direct quote of
the Canadian dollar to the US dollar.
Study Session 4, Reading 17
26. Indirect Quotations
An indirect quote for currency X is the amount of currency X for
one unit of currency Y.
The quotation 0.75 CAD:USD is an indirect quote of USD to the
Canadian investor.
Study Session 4, Reading 17
27. Converting an Indirect into a Direct Quote
An investor can simply reverse the units of quotations. The
reciprocal of the indirect quotation is the direct quoted rate.
Continuing with our previous example, the indirectly quoted rate
can be converted into direct quotation by:
USD: CAD = 1/0.75 = 1.333
Study Session 4, Reading 17
28. Factors Affecting the Spread
on a Foreign Currency Quotation
1. Market conditions
2. Positions of bank and currency dealer
3. Trading volumes.
spread - the difference between the bid and ask price of a dealer
Study Session 4, Reading 14
29. Market Conditions
Exchange rate uncertainty typically increases the spread
between the bid and ask price of foreign currency.
Larger spreads between foreign currencies compensates dealers
for the risk of dealing in currencies with higher exchange rate
volatility.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
30. Bank and Currency Dealer Positions
To reflect trading objectives, dealers often adjust the spread up
or down.
If a dealer has excess position in a currency, he lowers both the
bid and ask price.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
31. Trading Volumes
Increase trading volumes in a currency causes the spread to be
narrowed.
Currency pairs with more trading volumes like EUR: USD, EUR:
JPY typically have narrower spreads compared to less actively
traded currencies.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
32. Calculating Currency Cross Rates
currency cross rate - the exchange of two currencies with a
common third currency (reference currency).
Cross rates must be computed from the exchange rates between
each of the two currencies to a third currency, usually EUR or
USD.
The key to calculating cross rates is that the desired result of the
cross rate between two currencies be calculated algebraically
Study Session 4, Reading 14
33. Profit on Triangular Arbitrage
Opportunities
Three pairs of currencies with bid and ask quotes are present in
triangular arbitrage.
For identify arbitrage opportunities (riskless profit), you go from
the starting point and convert currencies in either in a clock wise
or anti clock wise direction until you reach the point from where
you started and end up having more currency than originally.
Triangular arbitrage ensures consistency between exchange
rates and cross rates
Study Session 4, Reading 14
34. Calculating Profits from Triangular
Arbitrage
Start in the home currency and go both ways around the triangle
by exchanging the home currency for the first foreign currency,
then exchanging the first foreign currency to the second foreign
currency and then exchanging the second foreign currency back
in the home currency. If the money at the end of triangle is more
than at the start, there is an arbitrage opportunity.
Taking transaction costs into consideration, one should end up
with having less money when completing the triangle.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
35. Spot Exchange Rate
Spot foreign exchange markets refer to transactions which call
for immediate delivery of a currency.
Spot exchange rates are quoted for immediate currency
transactions, although in practise the settlement takes place
after 2 business days (T+2 settlement).
Spot transactions are used to settle commercial purchases of
goods as well as for investment purposes.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
36. Forward Contract for Currency Exchange
Forward FX market transactions refer to the exchange of
currencies that will occur in the future.
Forward exchange rates are commonly used by asset managers
and companies to manage their foreign currency positions.
Both parties to the transaction in currency forward contract
agree to exchange one currency for another currency at a
specific future date for a specific price that is fixed today.
For transactions 30, 60, 90, or 180 days in the future
Study Session 4, Reading 14
37. Forward Discount (Premium)
If in future an investor pays less (more) in their domestic
currency per unit of foreign currency, the foreign currency is at a
forward discount (premium).
A currency is quoted at a forward discount (premium) relative to
the second currency if the forward price (in units of secondary
currency) is less (greater) than the spot price.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
38. Calculating Discount (Premium)
The forward discount, or premium, is calculated as an annualized
percentage deviation from the spot rate. The annualized forward
premium (discount) of a currency is equal to:
12
Forward rate − Spot rate
No. of Months forward 100%
Spot rate
The percentage premium (discount) is annualized by multiplying
by 12 and dividing by the length of the forward contract in
months.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
39. Interest Rate Parity
Interest rate parity implies that the discount interest rate
differential is equal to the forward premium or discount.
Interest rate parity holds that the forward discount (premium) is
equal to the interest rate differential between two currencies.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
40. Covered Interest Arbitrage
Covered Interest Arbitrage - a trading strategy that exploits
mispricing between spot and forward rates.
Process of simultaneously borrowing the domestic currency,
transferring the domestic currency into foreign currency at the
spot rate, lending it and buying a forward exchange rate contract
to repatriate the foreign currency into domestic currency at the
forward exchange rate. The net result of such a trading strategy
should be zero. If not, a covered interest arbitrage opportunity
exists.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
41. Determining Strength of Currency
spot rate - the exchange rate for immediate transaction
forward exchange rate - for a transaction at a specific future date
A currency selling at a forward premium is considered “strong”
relative to the second currency and the currency is expected to
appreciate.
A currency selling at a forward discount is considered weak and is
expected to depreciate.
The annual forward discount/ premium is calculated by using the
following formula:
12
Forward rate − Spot rate
No. of Months forward 100%
Spot rate
Study Session 4, Reading 14
42. Flexible Exchange rate System
Exchange rates are determined by demand and supply in the
foreign exchange markets.
Major currencies such as dollar, euro, Swiss franc, British pound
trade in a flexible or floating exchange rate system.
The exchange rates of freely traded currencies belonging to a
flexible exchange rate system are determined by their demand
and supply.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
43. Components of the Balance
of Payment Account
The Balance of Payment includes government transactions,
consumer transactions, and business transactions
In the balance of payment accounts, the Current Account
includes the balance of goods and services, income received or
paid on current investments, and current transfers. The
Financial Account includes short and long term capital
transactions.
The BOP equation is:
current account + financial account + official reserve account = 0
Study Session 4, Reading 14
44. Balance of Payment Account
Used to keep track of transactions between a country and its
international trading partners.
Reflects all payments and liabilities to foreigners, and all
payments and obligations received from foreigners.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
45. Current Account
Covers all transactions that take place in the normal business of
residents of a country.
The balance on the current account summarizes whether a
country is selling more goods and services to the rest of the
world than it is buying (current account surplus), or buying from
the rest of the world is more than the sales to the rest of the
world (a current account deficit).
Study Session 4, Reading 14
46. Financial Capital Account
Measures the flow of funds for debt and equity investment into
and out of the country.
Covers a country’s residents investment abroad and nonresidents investment in the country.
Official Reserve Account
Tracks all reserve transactions by monetary authorities.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
47. Current Account deficit (surplus) and
Financial Account Surplus (deficit)
Countries that run current account deficits tend to run financial
account surpluses so that the current account deficit is offset by
a financial account surplus.
As long as foreign investors are willing to finance the trade
deficit by net capital flows to the country, the situation posses
no economic problem. The depreciation pressures from current
account deficits are balanced by the appreciation pressures from
financial account surplus.
A current account surplus and financial account deficit is not an
indication of financial strength
Study Session 4, Reading 14
48. Factors Affecting Exchange Rates
Differences in income growth
Differences in inflation rates
Differences in real interest rates
Changes in the investment climate
Study Session 4, Reading 14
49. Factors Affecting Exchange Rates (cont.)
Differences in income growth
Nations with high income growth demand more imported goods.
Differences in inflation rates
In a country with a high inflation rate, its currency will depreciate
as the purchasing power will be eroded compared to a country
with low inflation rates.
Differences in real interest rates
Will cause the flow of capital to countries with higher real
interest rates.
Study Session 4, Reading 14
50. Factors Affecting Exchange Rates (cont.)
A positive change in the investment climate will decrease the
risk of country, which will cause an appreciation of the currency
of that country.
Changes in Investment Climate include changes in investment
risk
Study Session 4, Reading 14
51. Monetary Policy
Expansionary monetary policy - increases economic growth and
inflation rates, causing exports to decline and the current
account to deteriorate, leading to an in decrease in demand for
the domestic currency.
Study Session 4, Reading 18
52. Fiscal Policy
Expansionary fiscal policy - increases government borrowing,
causing the interest rate to increase, which will attract foreign
investors, consequently increasing the demand for domestic
currency.
Study Session 4, Reading 18
53. Fixed Exchange Rate System
fixed exchange rate system - the exchange rate of a currency is
fixed against another currency
official parity - an exchange rate between two currencies remains
fixed at the present level
Advantages: it removes exchange rate risk and brings discipline to
government policies
Disadvantages: that it deprives the country of any monetary
independence and constrains the country’s fiscal policy
Study Session 4, Reading 18
54. Pegged Exchange Rate System
pegged exchange rate system - the target exchange rate is set
against a major currency
Advantage: it stabilizes the exchange rate
Disadvantage: that the more inflexible the exchange rate system,
the more speculators will try to take advantage of the lack of
adjustment in the exchange rate
Study Session 4, Reading 18
55. Purchasing Power Parity: Absolute vs Real
absolute purchasing power parity - price levels should be the
same across all countries after adjustment are made for
exchange rates
Relative purchasing power parity - exchange rates between
countries will adjust to offset the differences in the inflation
rates between two countries
Study Session 4, Reading 18
56. Calculating the End of Period
Exchange Rate through Purchasing
Power Parity
Formula:
t
1 + inf lation domestic
= E( St )
So
1 + inf lation
foreign
Where:
So
= spot exchange rate today
E ( S t )= expected spot exchange rate after t periods
Study Session 4, Reading 14
57. International Fisher Relation
International Fisher Relation - the nominal rate of interest is
approximately equal to the sum of the real rate and the
expected inflation rate.
Linear approximation:
R NOMINAL ( A) − R NOMINAL ( B ) = E ( INFLATION A ) − E ( INFLATION B )
International Fisher Relation can also be stated as:
1 + Rnominal A 1 + E (inflation A )
=
1 + E (infaltion )
1 + R
B
nominal B
Study Session 4, Reading 14
58. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
Interest rate parity - says that we expect foreign currency
appreciation or depreciation should be equal to the interest rate
differential between two countries.
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity – a situation where currency risk
cannot be covered with a forward currency exchange rate
contract.
covered interest rate theory - arbitrage would force the forward
contract exchange rate to a level consistent with the difference
between the nominal rates of interest between two countries
Study Session 4, Reading 14
59. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (cont.)
The exact relation of interest rate parity:
E[S1] 1 + R domestic
=
So
1 + R foreign
Study Session 4, Reading 14
60. Forecasting Spot Rates with Uncovered
Interest Rate Parity
Formula:
1 + R domestic
x So = Expected spot rate at time t = 1
1+ R
foreign
Study Session 4, Reading 14
61. Components of Measures
of Economic Activity
Gross domestic Product (GDP) - the total of all economic activity
in a country regardless of who owns the productive assets.
Gross National Income (GNI) - the total income earned by the
residents of a country
Net National Income (NNI) - gross national income less
depreciation
Study Session 4, Reading 14
62. Conversion of Market Price
to Factor Cost GDP
Formula:
GDP at factor cost = GDP at market price + Subsidies – Indirect taxes
Study Session 4, Reading 14
63. Reporting of GDP Figures
and the GDP Deflator
Output data - collected in both current and constant prices
Expenditure data - collected at current prices
Income data - collected at current prices and converted into
constant prices
GDP deflator or price deflator - the measure of the impact of
overall inflation
The GDP deflator allows for change in the relative price of goods
Study Session 4, Reading 14