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Contested natural resources
                 and political conflict:
         case-studies from Darfur and Gambella




European Conference on Africa Studies         Ana Elisa Cascão
          Leipzig, Germany              King’s College of London, UK
           4-7 June 2009                      CEAUP, Portugal
Ethiopia and Sudan:
         Territory and Natural Resources
Agriculture and Livestock:
•   Main economic sectors
•   Main source of livelihoods
•   Inputs: Land and Water
•   Competition for control
•   Patterns of cooperation and conflict

Environmental challenges:
•   Overexploitation of land and water resources
•   Environmental degradation
•   Uneven patterns of rainfall
•   Desertification

Other challenges:
•   Population growth
•   Population movements (migrations, refugees, etc)
•   Resource-grabbing
Land Use
Darfur




         Gambella
Livestock Density

Darfur




             Gambella
Human Density
Darfur




            Gambella
Ethiopia and Sudan:
    Political dimensions of resource-based conflicts

Blurred political setting:
•    Property rights/Land Tenure
•    Acess and distribution
•    Unclear development options
•    Traditional conflict-resolution mechanisms
•    Alternative conflict-resolution mechanisms?

Power politics:
•    Marginalisation
•    New competition: for political power and weatlh
•    Political manipulation of group-identities
•    Selective empowerement

“Extra” political dimensions:
•    Porous administrative borders
•    Spillover effects of neighbouring conflicts
DARFUR – A local water war?
         Roots of the Conflict: Resource-based

         •     Semi-arid region
         •     Concentration of population
         •     Longstanding competition for fertile/grazing
               land – land tenure problems
         •     Competition for water access
         •     Agro vs. Pastolarist disputes
         •     Customary conflict resolution

         1980s:
         • Increasing desertification/degradation
         • Limited water supplies
         • New agro-pastoralist migrations
         • Growing competition for resources
         • Governance failure
             “Darfur is an environmental crisis – a conflict that grew at least in part
                    from desertification, ecological degradation and a scarcity of
                               resources, foremost among the water”
                                       (Ban Ki-Moon, 2007)
DARFUR – how a resource-conflict
        became a political conflict
1990s:
• Darfur: Underdeveloped and marginalised region
• Increasing competition for natural resources
• Increasing competition for political influence
• Increasing political unrest
• Local/National governance failure

2000s:
• “Black Book”: call for power/wealth redistribution
• Intra-state spillover effects (Central government + SPLM
  involvement)
• Instrumentalisation of identities (ethnicity)
• Empowerement of militias
• Inter-state spillover effects (Sudan-Chad relations)
GAMBELLA – Resource-based conflict?
                The setting
                •   Marginalised and underdeveloped
                    region
                •   Political instability
                •   Federal/regional complexity
                •   Population movements
                •   Spillover effects from Sudan
  Gambella
   region       The competition(s)
                •   Competition for land and water –
                    farmers, pastoralists, new comers
                •   Problematic land tenure
                •   Patterns of cooperation and conflict
                •   Competition for political power
                •   Instrumentalisation of identity politics

                The environment?
GAMBELLA – The environment
           White Nile River




                         Sobat River



                                       Baro River


                        Akobo River      Gilo River




      Vast water supplies and fertile land
                     But...
• Increasing ecological degradation/deforestation
    • Increasing pressure over riverian areas
           • Potential land grabbing
GAMBELLA – Pressure over riverian areas




                                                                          90s U l er s
                                                                          + Mo
                                                                           Dwel ent
                       8




                                                                               vem

                                                                               r b an
                    an 0s A
                      d R rm
                         ef u y
                             ge
                                es




                                              0s
                                            00 ists
                                        s /2 l                              Conflict
                                      90 tora
                                          s
                                       Pa




                                                                      s
            Conflict




                                                             r al s
                                                                 i st
                                                                    0
                                                        Pa s/200
                                                          sto
                                                         90
                                                                                     80s
                                                                                           Hig
                                                                                              hlan
                                            00 i st s




                                                                                                  der
            0s                                                                                        s
                                              0s




          00 ists
                                      0s oral




       /2
    0s oral
                                     9 t
                                         /2




   9 t
                                         s




       s
                                      Pa




    Pa
CONCLUSIONS
• Potential for resource-based conflicts in Ethiopia and
  Sudan is high

• Growing pressure over land and water resources


• Environmental degradation – social, economic and
  political impacts

• Trend: political instrumentalisation of resource conflicts


• Growing competition for political resources

• Risk for transboundary spillover effects

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Cascao Leipzig Contested Natural Resources Horn Darfur Gambella

  • 1. Contested natural resources and political conflict: case-studies from Darfur and Gambella European Conference on Africa Studies Ana Elisa Cascão Leipzig, Germany King’s College of London, UK 4-7 June 2009 CEAUP, Portugal
  • 2. Ethiopia and Sudan: Territory and Natural Resources Agriculture and Livestock: • Main economic sectors • Main source of livelihoods • Inputs: Land and Water • Competition for control • Patterns of cooperation and conflict Environmental challenges: • Overexploitation of land and water resources • Environmental degradation • Uneven patterns of rainfall • Desertification Other challenges: • Population growth • Population movements (migrations, refugees, etc) • Resource-grabbing
  • 3. Land Use Darfur Gambella
  • 6. Ethiopia and Sudan: Political dimensions of resource-based conflicts Blurred political setting: • Property rights/Land Tenure • Acess and distribution • Unclear development options • Traditional conflict-resolution mechanisms • Alternative conflict-resolution mechanisms? Power politics: • Marginalisation • New competition: for political power and weatlh • Political manipulation of group-identities • Selective empowerement “Extra” political dimensions: • Porous administrative borders • Spillover effects of neighbouring conflicts
  • 7. DARFUR – A local water war? Roots of the Conflict: Resource-based • Semi-arid region • Concentration of population • Longstanding competition for fertile/grazing land – land tenure problems • Competition for water access • Agro vs. Pastolarist disputes • Customary conflict resolution 1980s: • Increasing desertification/degradation • Limited water supplies • New agro-pastoralist migrations • Growing competition for resources • Governance failure “Darfur is an environmental crisis – a conflict that grew at least in part from desertification, ecological degradation and a scarcity of resources, foremost among the water” (Ban Ki-Moon, 2007)
  • 8. DARFUR – how a resource-conflict became a political conflict 1990s: • Darfur: Underdeveloped and marginalised region • Increasing competition for natural resources • Increasing competition for political influence • Increasing political unrest • Local/National governance failure 2000s: • “Black Book”: call for power/wealth redistribution • Intra-state spillover effects (Central government + SPLM involvement) • Instrumentalisation of identities (ethnicity) • Empowerement of militias • Inter-state spillover effects (Sudan-Chad relations)
  • 9. GAMBELLA – Resource-based conflict? The setting • Marginalised and underdeveloped region • Political instability • Federal/regional complexity • Population movements • Spillover effects from Sudan Gambella region The competition(s) • Competition for land and water – farmers, pastoralists, new comers • Problematic land tenure • Patterns of cooperation and conflict • Competition for political power • Instrumentalisation of identity politics The environment?
  • 10. GAMBELLA – The environment White Nile River Sobat River Baro River Akobo River Gilo River Vast water supplies and fertile land But... • Increasing ecological degradation/deforestation • Increasing pressure over riverian areas • Potential land grabbing
  • 11. GAMBELLA – Pressure over riverian areas 90s U l er s + Mo Dwel ent 8 vem r b an an 0s A d R rm ef u y ge es 0s 00 ists s /2 l Conflict 90 tora s Pa s Conflict r al s i st 0 Pa s/200 sto 90 80s Hig hlan 00 i st s der 0s s 0s 00 ists 0s oral /2 0s oral 9 t /2 9 t s s Pa Pa
  • 12. CONCLUSIONS • Potential for resource-based conflicts in Ethiopia and Sudan is high • Growing pressure over land and water resources • Environmental degradation – social, economic and political impacts • Trend: political instrumentalisation of resource conflicts • Growing competition for political resources • Risk for transboundary spillover effects