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State of the E-Commerce
         Industry in India
 A study on the Current Trends, Domain Insights,
   Success Criteria & Investment Opportunities
                                          Abhishek Mathur
                                             8/24/2011




Given the MakeMyTrip & JustDial IPO’s, Interest in Consumer Driven Ecommerce has increased both
from Investors and Entrepreneurs. At the same time reports of Accounting Harakiri & Amazon’s
announced Entry have cast a doubt on the monetization capabilities. This report studies Ecommerce in
India and attempts to draw parallels within Sectors and Geographies to identify Investment
opportunities
Table of Contents

Investment Hypothesis ............................................................................................................... 3
Measuring E-Commerce Success .............................................................................................. 4
Ecommerce Verticals ................................................................................................................. 4
Demographic Trends.................................................................................................................. 5
Market Size ................................................................................................................................ 6
Financial Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 6
The Three Facets of Ecommerce ............................................................................................... 7
   Customer Facing .................................................................................................................... 7
   Supply Networks .................................................................................................................... 7
      1.     Books, Electronics & Apparel ....................................................................................... 7
      2.     Travel Ticketing ........................................................................................................... 8
      3.     Hotel Booking .............................................................................................................. 8
      4.     Deals ........................................................................................................................... 8
   Delivery Channels .................................................................................................................. 8
      1.     Inventory Management, Warehousing, Packaging and Shipping:................................. 8
      2.     Couriers and Last mile delivery channels: .................................................................... 8
Key Growth Drivers ...................................................................................................................10
Key Challenges / Barriers .........................................................................................................10
Online Usage Behavior trends & Key Opportunities ..................................................................11
Major Investments in the industry ..............................................................................................11
Success stories / Important Exits ..............................................................................................12
   MakeMyTrip...........................................................................................................................12
   Justdial ..................................................................................................................................12
   Yatra .....................................................................................................................................12
Regulatory Advantage & legal frameworks................................................................................13
Appendix 1: Evolution of an ECommerce Startup / ECommerce Org Chart ...............................14
Appendix 2: Fundamental Analysis of Global Ecommerce Players............................................15
Appendix 3: Revenue Growth Projections .................................................................................16
Appendix 4: Current Revenue Projections.................................................................................17
Appendix 5: List of Ecommerce players by category .................................................................17
Investment Hypothesis
India, in the last decade has seen rapidly
increasing disposable incomes leading to
increasing demand for branded goods.
However, traditional retail channels are
encumbered by inefficient distribution
networks which can be optimized further
through cutting edge technology enabled
platforms.
                                                                                               Source: Vizisense
The last 2-3 years have seen a rapid growth in Internet/Mobile as a channel for Retail Sales.
This has led to a widespread belief that the Ecommerce platform has come of age in India and
will leapfrog organized retail as the primary retail channel. Political will has been against
supplanting traditional Middlemen. A fact which hampers organized direct to consumer retail
and strengthens the case for ECommerce
A closer look at 2011 data, demonstrates that
primary drivers for increased Ecommerce
usage have been Services (Deals, Ticketing,
etc...), whereas Products (Books, Electronics,
and Apparel) have been stagnant.
Macro Trends are extremely positive.
The current real Revenues of the Ecommerce
market is estimated at $1B, which is
considerably lesser than China ($ 70B) and other comparable economies. Active Internet Source: Vizisense
user base of 70-80 Million users is roughly 10% of the Mobile user base (700 Million).
People from 3300 distinct locations made online transactions in 2010, indicating mass appeal.
Valuations (See Section Financial Analysis) are high even by global standards (See Appendix 2:
Fundamental Analysis of Global Ecommerce Players). However this report attempts to identify
niches within the Apparel and Deals Categories which present opportunities to invest in. Group
Deals are doing very well globally with Groupon, LivingSocial, etc... Claiming 25% SME
marketing budget in the US. Given the unorganized and technologically challenged service
sector in India the scope for growth is even higher. JustDial (catering to a similar audience) has
proven a strong need for such Aggregators. Apparel (branded and unbranded) is interesting
because latest technologies around Augmented Reality, Flexible return policies, Cash On
delivery and Deep discounts will lead to explosive growth in this category. Additionally, margins
available in this space (25% - 200%), lend themselves very well to a quality offering and
fantastic customer experience. (http://vizisense.com/html/press/newAgeShopaholics.html)
Measuring E-Commerce Success
As per current trends none of the Ecommerce players will operationally break even before
2014. The question then is how to differentiate the winners from the laggards. Based on expert
opinion the following may be used as surrogate success criteria

   a. Transactions per Day An Ecommerce player which can consistently grow and cross 5000
      Tx/day by 2012 will be well poised to succeed in the long term

   b. Customer Acquisition cost. A consistent linear reduction in Acquisition cost
      demonstrates Customer satisfaction and repeat purchase. This would be essential to
      scale

   c. Team A Company which can hire and retain top level vertical specific domain experts
      will naturally scale well.

   d. Gross Merchandise Volumes Growth in GMV is a good sign; however this needs to be
      tracked in conjunction with changes in Unit Profitability




Ecommerce Verticals
Ecommerce in India Can be divided into 21 broad verticals (See Appendix 5: List of Ecommerce
players by category). The Top 4 comprise Travel, Books/Electronics/DVD’s, Apparel and Deals.

The rest include Gifts, cakes, Custom memorabilia, Sweets and bakery items, Artwork auction,
Baby Care, Movie ticket booking, Airlines portals, Horizontal Players, Movie Rentals, Footwear,
Jewellery, Lingerie Straps and Strings, Sports, Health, Fitness, Beauty, Wellness, Perfumes,
Groceries, Vegetables, Fruits
Demographic Trends
Across verticals
   1. 15-24 age group gets 40% traffic. Early adoption amongst this Age group which will lead
      consumption in the coming decade is a good sign.
   2. Low –Middle Income earners dominate
   3. City wise traffic is Maximum from Mumbai, Delhi, and Bangalore. About 40% traffic is
      outside metro and tier 1 cites.
   4. Primary customers are Young Graduate Adults.



Vertical Specific
Vertical            Unique Annual      All      Time        Sites Considered
                    Users / Growth     India    Spent/Visit
                    Day                Reach    (Minutes)
Travel              150,000 100%       4%       8           Makemytrip.com,
                                                            Cleartrip.com, Yatra.com,
                                                            Tripadvisor.in
Books             40,000      80%      1.5%     7           Flipkart.com, Infibeam.com,
Electronics/DVD’s                                           Naaptol.com, Letsbuy.com
Apparel           30,000      220%     1.25%    9.2         FashionAndYou.com,Yebhi.com,
                                                            Myntra.com, 99labels.com
Deals               425,000 3000%      13%      3.7         Snapdeal.com
                                                Source: Google Trends for Websites & Vizisense
   1. Amongst Books/Electronics/DVD’s offline players with Online presence such as
      FutureBazaar.com and HomeShop18.com receive as many visits as the pure play
      Ecommerce players. Amazon.com still receives twice as many visits as Indian players
      within India.
   2. Amongst apparel, offline brands such as Shoppersstop.com lag pure Ecommerce
      players.
   3. Among deals, there is a clear monopoly with Snapdeal accounting for more than 90% of
      the traffic. Deals also have a secondary demographic group – Students.
Market Size
The Total Ecommerce Market for 2011 Is estimated to be 50,000 Crores (GMV), an impressive
growth rate of 47 per cent YoY. This is on the back of 5 Crores ‘active’ internet users in India.
Implying a revenue of Rs 1000 per active User. People from more than 3300 Villages and Cities
have purchased something online, including 1100 rural locations.

Through an average of Top Down, Bottom Up and Comparable Geography Market Size, I expect
Indian E-Commerce to grow at 30-40% Annually and be a Rs 260,000 Crores(GMV) market by
2016 (See Appendix 3: Revenue Growth Projections).

                                                                                     Amazon    DangDan
Financial Analysis                                                                             g.com
                                                           P/S (ttm)                      2.24      1.88
Branded E-tailing (Books, Electronics, Music,              Return on Equity (TTM):     15.24% NA
                                                           EV                        85.48B     526.24M
Movies, etc…)
                                                           Profit Margin (TTM):         2.58%       1.30%
                                                                                     Source: Google Finance
   a. Globally Etailing platforms run on profitably Value Metrics (2016)           INR Crores
      margin of 1.3 – 2.58%, Indian Ecommerce Total Retail Sales (GMV)                 260000
      platforms may run on even lesser margins GMV to Revenue                            20%
      given Infrastructural and Payment processing Revenue                              52000
      difficulties                                    % Share of Etailing                15%
                                                      Total Etailing Sales               7800
   b. A Future Multiple based valuation technique
                                                      P/S                                2.02
      values the Etaiing Market at INR 4200 Crores    Future Valuation                  15756
   c. It is rumored that Flipkart is valued at INR    Discount Rate                      30%
      4800 Crores, this may be a strategy to deter    Current Valuation(2011)        4243.549
      Amazon from entering India alone. (http://www.vccircle.com/500/news/flipkart-set-to-
      raise-150m-from-general-atlantic-at-1b-valuation)
   d. There are concerns around overvaluation and a bubble in Ecommerce. (See:
      http://www.pluggd.in/stop-blowing-our-ecommerce-bubbles-297/,
      http://blog.kamadolli.com/2011/08/india-e-commerce-joining-the-rant-wagon/)

Travel                                                               Expedia      Ctrip.com MMYT
   a. MMYT (and other Indian players) need to ramp P/S (ttm)                 2.14        11.55        5.62

       up hotel and Package bookings in order to reach Return on          15.59%       18.87%     18.82%
                                                       Equity (ttm)
       global margin standards.                        EV                  7.24B         5.32B 664.47M
   b. Reported Revenues are $124.72M for FY11          Profit Margin      12.09%       35.07%       3.87%
                                                       (ttm)
   c. Gross bookings $742.5 million for FY11
                                                                                  Source: Google Finance
   d. MMYT just released Q1’12 reports showing healthy growth in Revenues
       (http://investors.makemytrip.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=598162)
The Three Facets of Ecommerce
Ecommerce can be broadly divided into three distinct modules Customer Facing, Supply
Networks and Delivery Channels (See Appendix 1: Evolution of an ECommerce Startup / ECommerce
Org Chart)

Customer Facing
   1. Web Product Design. User friendly interface is crucial to converting Visitors into Buyers.
      Typical Ecommerce conversions are 4-6%. China/US Ecommerce sites convert at > 10%
      levels.
   2. Customer Acquisition. Digital Marketing channels including SEO, SEM, Social Media,
      SMS, Emails, Mobile Ads; Offline channels include Print, Radio and TV. Typical Cost per
      Acquisition range from Rs 400 to Rs 2000. Marketing through Digital Channels is clearly
      not     cheap.    (See   Appendix    7:    Google      AdWords     CPC     by    Segment)
      (http://www.alootechie.com/news/google-targets-triple-digit-revenue-growth-through-
      local-ads-indian-smbs) .
   3. Customer Support (Social Media and Inbound Call Centers)
   4. Payment Processing. E.g. Avenues.com, ItzCash. Costs can vary from 2-5% depending on
      volumes and form of payment. Failure rates and Fraud have considerably reduced to an
      acceptable level

Supply Networks
Supply networks have evolved differently for each vertical. Merchandiser- Vendor negotiations
greatly determine Payment terms and Supply Time/reliability. In general the more consolidated
an industry the more organized the network (E.g. Flight Ticketing).

   1. Books, Electronics & Apparel
                                               Regional
                                               Dealers
                                                                                     Brands:
                     Ecommerce                                    National
                     Players such as                              Level              Samsung, LG, Rupa,
                     Flipkart,                                    Distributor        Levi’s, Van Heusen
                     Infibeam, F & You


Most brands/publishers work with national level distributors, who then distribute to regional
dealers. Ecommerce players can work with either Regional Dealers or National Distributors.
With volume these can be removed and direct brand relationships need to be built.
2. Travel Ticketing: Ticket Aggregators such as GDS provide fairly straightforward
      integration into flight availability and booking.

   3. Hotel Booking: A challenge exists in streamlining the various layers of intermediaries
      /aggregators which exist without adding any real value between the Customer and
      Hotel. Myriad layers of intermediaries with vested interests are not allowing this
      category to take off in spite of huge margins and high volumes. However as OTA’s gain
      volumes they are replacing some of these aggregators and there is an opportunity to
      consolidate the value chain.


            Affiliates Such
            as Ixigo


                        OTA’s such as Cleartrip,
                        Travelguru, Yatra, MMT     Agent Side     Hotel Side
                                                   Aggregators
                                                                  Aggregators
                                                   Such as Via,
                                                                  Such As Hbsi
                                                   Travelocity,
                                                   Expedia

                               Travel Agents




   4. Deals: There are no existing networks for aggregating deals. Thus it is a challenge to
      build a Business Development team to collect deals. At the same time it is an
      opportunity given that margins do not need to be shared with intermediaries.

Delivery Channels
Needed only for product delivery, deals/ticketing can forgo this expense

   1. Inventory Management, Warehousing, Packaging and Shipping:
   Technology enabled CRM systems and demand forecasting are vital to optimize delivery
time & cost.

    2. Couriers and Last mile delivery channels:
(E.g. Aramaex and AFL Couriers) Negotiations determine freight costs, time to deliver, attempts
at delivery, etc.. COD greatly boosts market size; however it comes with its own challenges
around Returns, Incorrect Address, etc... Hence this is more expensive (even excluding freight)
than traditional Payment processors.
Market share & Competition
    Non travel Retail related sites reach
    about 54% (up 14% YoY) of the Online
    Audience in India. With the bulk of the
    reach coming from Computer Software
    downloads, Consumer Electronics,
    Hardware, Comparison shopping and
    Books

    Travel related sites reach 40% (up 13%
    YoY) of Indian Online users, dominated
    by Railways booking sites, followed by
    OTA’s                                                  Competitive Landscape of Consumer Ecommerce: Products
                                                                                                 Source:Vizisense



    Of the 7.1 million people visiting the top three OTAs, MakeMyTrip, Yatra Online and
    ClearTrip.com, 71 percent of visitors checked in at only one of the three sites,
    demonstrating relatively strong brand loyalty among the top players.




                                                                                   Competitive Landscape for Travel
                                                                                                 based ECommerce

                                                                                                    Souce: Comscore




                                         Share of Retail Categories by Geography Source: Comscore
Key Growth Drivers
   1. Scale through a superior service quality and high repeat business and referrals.
   2. Horizontal play, Number of categories served
   3. Reduce operational expenses by investing in warehouses / Logistics.
   4. Supplier relationships over other brands and potential new entrants
   5. Variety of products available under each category.
   6. Conversion rates for major players are still in the middle single digits, contrast with
      US/China where they are above 10%.
   7. COD consists of 80% of Ecommerce transactions in China, India has much lesser.
   8. South East Asia represents a huge opportunity for Indian Ecommerce companies to
      expand into. Snapdeal is one of the Companies considering going global.


                                                                                          44
Key Challenges / Barriers
   1. Accounting practices at most ecommerce sites still report revenues
      as Gross Merchandise Value. Further deep discounts are treated as
      long-term amortisable marketing expenses
   2. 20 % of the Users account for 64% of the total time spent on the
      Internet. In order to scale it is important to increase internet
      consumption across existing Internet users
   3. Core network infrastructure in India is not capable of handling a
      huge surge in Internet traffic. Only 20% of the Intra Telco network is
      over robust fiber networks, While Telco’s concentrate on individual
      networks, there aren’t sufficient peering points for traffic crossover.
   4. Payment system infrastructure continues to be woefully
      inadequate.
   5. It is rumored that SEBI is considering imposing Capital gains tax on
      Venture capital investments.
   6. Global players such as Amazon looking to enter India
                                                                                      Internet Usage Patterns:
   7. Local Language Content – Local Search Engines Like Baidu                        Source: Comscore

Internet Distribution System &
structure
Shared-access (Cyber Cafes / Mobile Phones / Universities)
population in India is almost as large as the Internet
population accessing from work and home


                                                             Figure 1 Unique Visitors (Million) Independent Vs Shared
Online Usage Behavior trends & Key Opportunities
    1. Internet Audience in India skews dramatically
       young, three-quarters of the web audience is
       under the age of 35. This skew can be
       attributed to the demographic profile of the
       country, Younger population has access to
       better devices and connectivity .
    2. 41% of Indian Internet users visited an
       Education site
    3. 14% of Indian Internet users visited a Personal’s site         2Internet Audience Age Group. Souce:
       (Dating/Matrimony, etc..)                                      Comscore

    4. 40% of Indian Internet users visited a Career services and
       development site
    5. 77% of Indian Internet users visited a Entertainment                          Netflix     Youku.com
                                                                P/S (ttm)                   4.81        30.88
       site (Music/Movies/Videos). However, Online video
                                                                Return on Equity        83.62% NA
       viewing in India is still lower than the World Average (ttm)
    6. This Age group also has disposable incomes, hence
                                                                EV                   12.68B      2.34B
       could be the drivers for Ecommerce
                                                                Profit Margin (ttm)      8.04%       -27.96%
    7. Comparison shopping is used by only 10% of the
       Indian Online users, give the price sensitive mindset
       this should increase ( Argentina/Brazil has more than 50% adoption of comparison
       shopping)                                                                      Source: Google Finance


Major Investments in the industry
     Company                    Company                  Investor                 Amount          Date
                                Description                                       raised
1    Flipkart Online Services   Ecommerce for            General Atlantic         $150 Million,   Not Yet
     Pvt Ltd                    Books, Electronics,      Partners                 ($1B            declared
                                Music, Movies                                     Valuation)
2    Ixigo.com                  Travel Metasearch        SAIF Partners,           $18.5 Million   August
                                                         MakeMyTrip                               10, 2011
2    Snapdeal (Jasper           Group deals portal       Bessemer Ventures,       $40 Million     July 26,
     InfoTech)                                           Nexus Venture Partners                   2011
                                                         and IndoUS Venture
                                                         Partners
3    Yebhi.com                  Online shoes, apparel,   Nexus Venture Partners   $9 Million      July 21,
     (Bigshoebazaar)            bags, accessories and    and Catamaran Ventures                   2011
                                gift items
4    Zovi.com                   Private Label Apparel    SAIF Partners & Others   $5.5 Million    July 5,
                                                                                                  2011
5    Global Online Apparel      Apparel, Deals, etc…     Mangrove Capital         $4.4 Million    July 5,
     (FashionAndYou,                                     Partners                                 2011
DealAndYou,
6    JustDial                 Local business listings   Sequoia Capital           $10 Million    June 6,
                              site                      Global Equities and SAP                  2011
                                                        Ventures
7    Exclusively.in           Fashion flash sales       Tiger Global              $16 Million    May 27,
                                                        Management LLC, Accel                    2011
                                                        Partners and Helion
                                                        Ventures
8    ThePrivateSales.com      Fashion flash sales       Undisclosed               $5 Million     May 20,
                                                                                                 2011
9    Redbus.in (PilaniSoft)   Bus Tickets               Helion Ventures,          $6.5 Million   May 16,
                                                        Inventus and Seedfund                    2011
10   Yatra Online Pvt Ltd,    online travel             Intel Capital             Undisclosed    May 13,
                              company                                                            2011
11   99labels.com             Fashion flash Sales       InfoEdge                  $3.5 Million   May 11,
                                                                                                 2011
12   Quickr                   a horizontal              Nokia Growth Partners     $8 Million     May 9,
                              classifieds player        (NGP), Norwest Venture                   2011
                                                        Partners and eBay Inc.
13   Policy Bazaar            Financial Products        InfoEdge, Intel Capital   $10 Million    April 21,
                              comparison                                                         2011



Success stories / Important Exits
MakeMyTrip
The MakeMyTrip (MMYT) stock surged 89% on its listing on 12th August’2010, and has been the
best IPO to list in the US since Athena health Inc’s IPO in 1997 which surged 97% on listing.

Justdial
Just Dial’s consolidated total income stood at Rs 189.91 Crores in FY11, representing a CAGR of
39.4 per cent. Its profits after tax increased from Rs 1.64 Crores in FY07 to Rs 28.62 Crores in
FY11. In FY 2011, the company addressed over 180 million search queries from millions of users
across platforms. For the year ended March, Just Dial reported a profit after tax of Rs 28.6
Crores, up from last year’s Rs 18.4 Crores. Mumbai’s Just Dial plans to go down the IPO path
and has filed documents with SEBI. It seeks to raise Rs 360 Crores through sale of fresh shares
and some more via sale of shares by private equity (PE) investors. PE companies such
as SAIF Partners (21.58 per cent), Sequoia (12.73 per cent) and Tiger Global (21.84 per cent)
own large stakes.

Yatra
Emboldened by the success of MakeMyTrip (MMYT) Ltd’s listing on Nasdaq, the US exchange,
Yatra.com, one of MMYT’s major competitors, may also go the public offer way. Industry
sources peg the IPO figure at $50-80 million (Rs 230-370 Crores). Yatra.com has a market share
of about 30 per cent, while about 48 per cent of the $1 billion (Rs 4,600 Crores) in online travel
reservations made in India last year were booked through MMYT.



Regulatory Advantage & legal frameworks
As per regulations, foreign companies cannot enter into retail business directly (they can engage in B2B
trading though) – and that’s precisely the reason why you won’t see Yahoo Shopping/Amazon running
their operation in India.

FDI up to 100% permitted for e-commerce activities subject to the condition that such companies would
divest 26% of their equity in favor of the Indian public in five years, if these companies are listed in other
parts of the world. Such companies would engage only in business to business (B2B) e-commerce and
not in retail trading
Appendix 1: Evolution of an ECommerce Startup / ECommerce Org Chart
    1.   Get ECommerce site up to take transactions (Typically 3-6 months since start)
             a. Get website ready (either build from scratch or use a hosted shopping cart)
             b. Setup payment gateway
             c. Setup a shipping partner
             d. Upload and manage initial list of products
             e. Setup and manage initial supplier list for products to be drop shipped (or ship from own simple
                warehouse)

Team needed: Business (customer service, supply chain, operations, legal, etc) + Engineering (1-2 folks should
suffice)

    2.   Get to 100 transactions / day & unit profitability (Typically 9 months to 1.5 years since start)
             a. Optimize website for SEO, put an affiliate marketing program, pay for SEM, social media
             b. Expand product list and supplier list
             c. Setup small warehouse (if customization is required) and manage inventory costs

Team added: Digital marketing, Procurement manager, Supply Chain and Logistics Managers and Customer
Service, Increase engineering (User experience, Scalability experts, etc.)

    3.   Get to 500 transactions / day & scale (Typically 2-4 years from start)
             a. Include brand marketing efforts including TV, print and billboard advertising
             b. Expand into adjacent vertical products spaces, add new suppliers
             c. Keep refining website to include up sell, cross sell and analytics efforts

Team added: Head of brand marketing, Category manager (Merchandise Manager) for each category, Catalog
manager (write product descriptions, take product photos, etc.)

    4.   Show gross profitability and scale beyond 1000 transactions
            a. Manage inventory and costs and ensure optimization of logistics and warehousing
            b. Recruit and manage team for growth
            c. Look for non-linear sources of traffic to the website, possibly add corporate sales




                                                         Figure 3 Source http://www.pluggd.in/author/mukund/
Appendix 2: Fundamental Analysis of Global Ecommerce Players




                                         Figure 4 Source: http://blog.kamadolli.com/
Appendix 3: Revenue Growth Projections
  1. US Ecommerce Growth rates have been in the 20-30% range over the past decade
  2. In India, Broadband Penetration
     Growth(Source:
       http://rtn.asia/347_indias-broadband-
       growth-slows-65-december-quarter)         >
       20%, Plus Revenue Per User Growth >
       10 % will support sustained Ecommerce
       growth > 30%
  3.   Related technologies such as Mobile
       penetration      have     grown      faster
       (although later)in India than in US
  4.   Globalization and Cultural convergence
       will lead to higher consumption
       aspirations
  5.   Adoption amongst Tier3 cities and
       villages as well as amongst low income
       groups suggests mass appeal
  6.   Recent technology Innovations have
       reduced digital fraud to below retail
       cash fraud rates
  7.   There is an immediate opportunity to
       win customers buying offline after
       looking for Information Online
  8.   We are looking at an opportunity to
       create the next Airtel / Tata / Reliance




  The total retail sales in India will grow          %Age Transactions Online (2016)        Ecommerce market (INR Crores)
  from US$ 395.96 billion in 2011 to US$                                                5                            157024
                                                                                        6                            188429
  785.12        billion       by       2015                                             7                            219834
  http://www.ibef.org/industry/retail.aspx).                                            8                            251238
  Currently 3% of retail transactions occur                                             9                            282643
                                                                                       10                            314048
  online, which will grow to 7-9% by 2016.
                                                                                       11                            345453
                                                                                       12                            376858

                                               Figure 5 Ecommerce Market Size Vs Online as a %age of total retail
Appendix 4: Current Revenue                          Sensitivity 3%           4%          5%         6%        7%
Projections                                                  300         13          17         22        26        30
                                                             400         17          23         29        35        40
Sensitivity of Yearly Revenues (INR Crores)to
                                                             500         22          29         36        43        50
Conversion rates and Average Transaction                     600         26          35         43        52        60
Size. These tables are drawn using Average                   700         30          40         50        60        71
Visitors from Appendix 7.
                                                     Figure 6, Revenue projections for Books/Electronics/Music/Movies


Appendix 5: List of Ecommerce players by category
1. Gifts, cakes etc. Infibeam.com, Fernsnpetals.com, IndianGiftsPortal.com, Talash.com GlimGifts.com
2. Books Flipkart.com, Landmarkonthenet.com, A1books.co.in
3. Custom designed T-shirt, mug, calendar etc Myntra.com,Zoomin.com, Snapfish.in, Picsquare.com
4. ApparelsPantaloons, Shoppersstop.com, Inkfruit.com,UtsavSarees.comGlobusZovi.com
5. Sweets and bakery items Mithaimate.com
6. Artwork auction Saffronart.com
7. A-Z items for Babies Hushbabies.com, Firstcry.com, BalGopal.com, Kidloo.comBabyoye.com
8. Movie ticket bookingBookmyshow.comPVRCinemas.com
9. Online travel ticketing and hotel booking Irctc.co.in, Redbus.in, MakeMyTrip.com, Yatra.com,
TripAdvisor.in, ClearTrip.com, Travelguru.com,Expedia.co.in, Ezeego1.co.in, Ixigo.com, TravelMasti.com,
Hotels.com
10. Airlines portals Goindigo.in, Indian Airlines, Jetlite.com, Flykingfisher.com, Goair.in, Spicejet.com,
Jetairways
11. B2C ( Multiple products ) Ebay.in, IndiaTimes, Rediff Shopping, Bigbazar, Homeshop18.com,
Shop.zapak.com, Shop.in.com, Tradeus.in, Indiaplaza.in, Egully.com, 20north.comTimtara.com
YepmeShopping.comBigadda.com
12. Rent a movie BigFlix.com,Seventymm.com
13. FootwearYebhi.com,Metro ShoesBata ShoesBeStylish
14. Deal a day SnapDeal.com, Dealsandyou.com, Mydala.com, Koovs.com, Grabbon.com,
BindaasBargain.com, Taggle.com, SoSasta.com, Dealivore.com, Grako.in, Dealsonline4u.com
Bagittoday.com 99labels.com Fashionandyou.com Timesdeal.com Rediff-DealHoJaye Dealface.com
DealYantra.comBuzzintown DealsDealsNow (For Corporates)

15. Electronics, Gadgets, PhonesDell.co.in, Ezone, EDigiWorld, BitFang.comLetsbuy.com
LootSpot.comNext.co.in, infibeam.com
16. Jewellery Caratlane.com, Suratdiamond.com Ddamas.co.in
17. Lingerie Straps and Strings, Ngal Originals, Victoria’s Secret India
18. Sports Playgroundonline.com Esportsbuy.com
19. Health, Fitness, Beauty, Wellness Health Shoppe, Urbantouch
20. Perfumes Perfume2Order, Beautymart.in,PerfumesDirect
21. Groceries, Vegetables, Fruits AaramShop.com Mandifresh
Appendix 6: Vertical specific demographics

OTA & Hotel Booking

        Each Web property
        receives on an average
        150,000 Unique Users /
        Day (Growing > 100%
        annually).
        In a month these
        properties reached
        around 4% of the Indian
        Population
        Users spent about 8
        minutes per visit, enough
        time to research and buy.                                         Figure 7 Daily Unique Visitors by Month
        Primary customers are
        Young Graduate Males,                   > 15                            above 60
        Middle Income Groups.             10 - 14.99                              45 - 60
        Long tail in terms of               7 - 9.99                              35 - 44
                                            5 - 6.99                              25 - 34
        lower Income groups is
                                            2 - 4.99                              15 - 24
        also visible                             <2                             below 15
        Early adoption amongst
                                                       0    20    40     60                 0     20    40    60
        the Under 15 and 15-24
        Age group who will lead
        consumption in the                  Figure 2 %Users by Income (INR Lakhs/Yr)                   Figure 3
%Users by Age decade.
        coming
        Metro’s and Tier one                                                                                  47.5
        cities account for roughly
        half the traffic, with the
        remainder distributed
        across India. Showing the
        long tail of users                                                                      12.00 12.50
                                                                                       7.25
                                                                  3.50   4.75   4.75
       0.25   0.25   0.50   0.75   0.75   0.75   2.25      2.25




                                            Table 1 %Users by City
Books & Electronics

        Each Web property receives
        on an average 40,000
        Unique Users / Day
        (Growing > 80% annually).
        Amazon still gets 80,000
        Unique visits indicating
        opportunity for growth,
        Homeshop18 and
        Futurebazaar also get similar
        number of visits
        In a month these properties
        reached around 1.5% of the                                  Figure 8 Daily Unique Visitors by Month
        Indian Population.
        Users spent 7 minutes per             > 15                        above 60
        visit, enough time to           10 - 14.99                          45 - 60
        research & transact.              7 - 9.99                          35 - 44
        Primary customers are             5 - 6.99                          25 - 34
        Young Graduate Males &            2 - 4.99                          15 - 24
                                               <2                         below 15
        Females, Middle Income
        Groups. Long tail in terms of                0   20   40   60                 0   20      40   60
        lower Income groups is also
        visible
                                          Figure 2 %Users by Income (INR Lakhs/Yr)              Figure 3
        Early adoption amongst the
%Users by Age
        Under 15 and 15-24 Age
        group who will lead
        consumption in the coming
        decade.                                                                                            46.3
        Long tail in city traffic
        Typical Conversion rates are
        4-6%. i.e. revenues of INR
        36-52 Crores (Appendix 3)


                                                                                               10.0 10.0
                                                                                     7.5
                                                                             5.0 6.5
      0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.5




                                          Table 2 %Users by City
Apparel

        Each Web property receives
        on an average 30,000
        Unique Users / Day
        (Growing > 220% annually).
        Established offline Brands
        such as Shoppers stop are
        lagging the New entrants
        In a month these properties
        reached around 1.25% of
        the Indian Population.
        Users spent 9.2 minutes per
                                                                    Figure 9 Daily Unique Visitors by Month
        visit, this is higher than
        travel, books and electronics
        indicating a more engaging            > 15                        above 60
        experience                      10 - 14.99                          45 - 60
        Contrary to perception            7 - 9.99                          35 - 44
                                          5 - 6.99                          25 - 34
        males (60%) outnumber
                                          2 - 4.99                          15 - 24
        females (40%)
                                               <2                         below 15
        Primary customers are
        Young Graduate Adults,                       0    20       40                 0   20    40    60
        Middle - High Income
        Groups. Long tail in terms of
                                          Figure 2 %Users by Income (INR Lakhs/Yr)             Figure 3
%Users by Age Income groups is also
        lower
        visible
        Early adoption amongst the
        15-24 Age group who will
        lead consumption in the
                                                                                                          53.00
        coming decade.
        Long tail in city traffic




                                                                                8.25 8.25 9.50 9.50
      0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.50 1.75 2.25




                                          Table 3 %Users by City
Daily Deals

        Snapdeal is a clear winner
        receiving on an average
        425,000 Unique Users / Day
        (Growing >3000% annually).
        Remaining websites are far
        behind at 30,000 UU’s/Day
        In a month Snapdeal
        reached around 13% of the
        Indian Population.
        Users spent 3.7 minutes per
        visit, indicates casual
                                                               Figure 10 Daily Unique Visitors by Month (TTM)
        browsing, not enough time
        for purchase
        Primary customers are                > 15                           above 60
                                       10 - 14.99                             45 - 60
        Students/Young Graduate
                                         7 - 9.99                             35 - 44
        Adults, Middle - High
                                         5 - 6.99                             25 - 34
        Income Groups. Long tail in      2 - 4.99                             15 - 24
        terms of lower Income                 <2                            below 15
        groups is also visible
        Early adoption amongst the                  0   20     40    60                  0     20    40    60
        15-24 Age group who will
        lead consumption in the          Figure 2 %Users by Income (INR Lakhs/Yr)                   Figure 3
%Users by Age decade.
        coming
        Long tail in city traffic



  80.00
                                                                                                          68.00
  70.00
  60.00
  50.00
  40.00
  30.00
  20.00
                                                        5.00        6.00    6.00        8.00    8.00
  10.00     1.00    1.00     1.00     2.00    2.00
   0.00




                                         Table 4 %Users by City
Appendix 7: Google AdWords CPC by Segment




Clearly, CPC are highest for Deals and Electronics, whereas Apparel has very low CPC’s

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State of ecommerce in india

  • 1. State of the E-Commerce Industry in India A study on the Current Trends, Domain Insights, Success Criteria & Investment Opportunities Abhishek Mathur 8/24/2011 Given the MakeMyTrip & JustDial IPO’s, Interest in Consumer Driven Ecommerce has increased both from Investors and Entrepreneurs. At the same time reports of Accounting Harakiri & Amazon’s announced Entry have cast a doubt on the monetization capabilities. This report studies Ecommerce in India and attempts to draw parallels within Sectors and Geographies to identify Investment opportunities
  • 2. Table of Contents Investment Hypothesis ............................................................................................................... 3 Measuring E-Commerce Success .............................................................................................. 4 Ecommerce Verticals ................................................................................................................. 4 Demographic Trends.................................................................................................................. 5 Market Size ................................................................................................................................ 6 Financial Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 6 The Three Facets of Ecommerce ............................................................................................... 7 Customer Facing .................................................................................................................... 7 Supply Networks .................................................................................................................... 7 1. Books, Electronics & Apparel ....................................................................................... 7 2. Travel Ticketing ........................................................................................................... 8 3. Hotel Booking .............................................................................................................. 8 4. Deals ........................................................................................................................... 8 Delivery Channels .................................................................................................................. 8 1. Inventory Management, Warehousing, Packaging and Shipping:................................. 8 2. Couriers and Last mile delivery channels: .................................................................... 8 Key Growth Drivers ...................................................................................................................10 Key Challenges / Barriers .........................................................................................................10 Online Usage Behavior trends & Key Opportunities ..................................................................11 Major Investments in the industry ..............................................................................................11 Success stories / Important Exits ..............................................................................................12 MakeMyTrip...........................................................................................................................12 Justdial ..................................................................................................................................12 Yatra .....................................................................................................................................12 Regulatory Advantage & legal frameworks................................................................................13 Appendix 1: Evolution of an ECommerce Startup / ECommerce Org Chart ...............................14 Appendix 2: Fundamental Analysis of Global Ecommerce Players............................................15 Appendix 3: Revenue Growth Projections .................................................................................16 Appendix 4: Current Revenue Projections.................................................................................17 Appendix 5: List of Ecommerce players by category .................................................................17
  • 3. Investment Hypothesis India, in the last decade has seen rapidly increasing disposable incomes leading to increasing demand for branded goods. However, traditional retail channels are encumbered by inefficient distribution networks which can be optimized further through cutting edge technology enabled platforms. Source: Vizisense The last 2-3 years have seen a rapid growth in Internet/Mobile as a channel for Retail Sales. This has led to a widespread belief that the Ecommerce platform has come of age in India and will leapfrog organized retail as the primary retail channel. Political will has been against supplanting traditional Middlemen. A fact which hampers organized direct to consumer retail and strengthens the case for ECommerce A closer look at 2011 data, demonstrates that primary drivers for increased Ecommerce usage have been Services (Deals, Ticketing, etc...), whereas Products (Books, Electronics, and Apparel) have been stagnant. Macro Trends are extremely positive. The current real Revenues of the Ecommerce market is estimated at $1B, which is considerably lesser than China ($ 70B) and other comparable economies. Active Internet Source: Vizisense user base of 70-80 Million users is roughly 10% of the Mobile user base (700 Million). People from 3300 distinct locations made online transactions in 2010, indicating mass appeal. Valuations (See Section Financial Analysis) are high even by global standards (See Appendix 2: Fundamental Analysis of Global Ecommerce Players). However this report attempts to identify niches within the Apparel and Deals Categories which present opportunities to invest in. Group Deals are doing very well globally with Groupon, LivingSocial, etc... Claiming 25% SME marketing budget in the US. Given the unorganized and technologically challenged service sector in India the scope for growth is even higher. JustDial (catering to a similar audience) has proven a strong need for such Aggregators. Apparel (branded and unbranded) is interesting because latest technologies around Augmented Reality, Flexible return policies, Cash On delivery and Deep discounts will lead to explosive growth in this category. Additionally, margins available in this space (25% - 200%), lend themselves very well to a quality offering and fantastic customer experience. (http://vizisense.com/html/press/newAgeShopaholics.html)
  • 4. Measuring E-Commerce Success As per current trends none of the Ecommerce players will operationally break even before 2014. The question then is how to differentiate the winners from the laggards. Based on expert opinion the following may be used as surrogate success criteria a. Transactions per Day An Ecommerce player which can consistently grow and cross 5000 Tx/day by 2012 will be well poised to succeed in the long term b. Customer Acquisition cost. A consistent linear reduction in Acquisition cost demonstrates Customer satisfaction and repeat purchase. This would be essential to scale c. Team A Company which can hire and retain top level vertical specific domain experts will naturally scale well. d. Gross Merchandise Volumes Growth in GMV is a good sign; however this needs to be tracked in conjunction with changes in Unit Profitability Ecommerce Verticals Ecommerce in India Can be divided into 21 broad verticals (See Appendix 5: List of Ecommerce players by category). The Top 4 comprise Travel, Books/Electronics/DVD’s, Apparel and Deals. The rest include Gifts, cakes, Custom memorabilia, Sweets and bakery items, Artwork auction, Baby Care, Movie ticket booking, Airlines portals, Horizontal Players, Movie Rentals, Footwear, Jewellery, Lingerie Straps and Strings, Sports, Health, Fitness, Beauty, Wellness, Perfumes, Groceries, Vegetables, Fruits
  • 5. Demographic Trends Across verticals 1. 15-24 age group gets 40% traffic. Early adoption amongst this Age group which will lead consumption in the coming decade is a good sign. 2. Low –Middle Income earners dominate 3. City wise traffic is Maximum from Mumbai, Delhi, and Bangalore. About 40% traffic is outside metro and tier 1 cites. 4. Primary customers are Young Graduate Adults. Vertical Specific Vertical Unique Annual All Time Sites Considered Users / Growth India Spent/Visit Day Reach (Minutes) Travel 150,000 100% 4% 8 Makemytrip.com, Cleartrip.com, Yatra.com, Tripadvisor.in Books 40,000 80% 1.5% 7 Flipkart.com, Infibeam.com, Electronics/DVD’s Naaptol.com, Letsbuy.com Apparel 30,000 220% 1.25% 9.2 FashionAndYou.com,Yebhi.com, Myntra.com, 99labels.com Deals 425,000 3000% 13% 3.7 Snapdeal.com Source: Google Trends for Websites & Vizisense 1. Amongst Books/Electronics/DVD’s offline players with Online presence such as FutureBazaar.com and HomeShop18.com receive as many visits as the pure play Ecommerce players. Amazon.com still receives twice as many visits as Indian players within India. 2. Amongst apparel, offline brands such as Shoppersstop.com lag pure Ecommerce players. 3. Among deals, there is a clear monopoly with Snapdeal accounting for more than 90% of the traffic. Deals also have a secondary demographic group – Students.
  • 6. Market Size The Total Ecommerce Market for 2011 Is estimated to be 50,000 Crores (GMV), an impressive growth rate of 47 per cent YoY. This is on the back of 5 Crores ‘active’ internet users in India. Implying a revenue of Rs 1000 per active User. People from more than 3300 Villages and Cities have purchased something online, including 1100 rural locations. Through an average of Top Down, Bottom Up and Comparable Geography Market Size, I expect Indian E-Commerce to grow at 30-40% Annually and be a Rs 260,000 Crores(GMV) market by 2016 (See Appendix 3: Revenue Growth Projections). Amazon DangDan Financial Analysis g.com P/S (ttm) 2.24 1.88 Branded E-tailing (Books, Electronics, Music, Return on Equity (TTM): 15.24% NA EV 85.48B 526.24M Movies, etc…) Profit Margin (TTM): 2.58% 1.30% Source: Google Finance a. Globally Etailing platforms run on profitably Value Metrics (2016) INR Crores margin of 1.3 – 2.58%, Indian Ecommerce Total Retail Sales (GMV) 260000 platforms may run on even lesser margins GMV to Revenue 20% given Infrastructural and Payment processing Revenue 52000 difficulties % Share of Etailing 15% Total Etailing Sales 7800 b. A Future Multiple based valuation technique P/S 2.02 values the Etaiing Market at INR 4200 Crores Future Valuation 15756 c. It is rumored that Flipkart is valued at INR Discount Rate 30% 4800 Crores, this may be a strategy to deter Current Valuation(2011) 4243.549 Amazon from entering India alone. (http://www.vccircle.com/500/news/flipkart-set-to- raise-150m-from-general-atlantic-at-1b-valuation) d. There are concerns around overvaluation and a bubble in Ecommerce. (See: http://www.pluggd.in/stop-blowing-our-ecommerce-bubbles-297/, http://blog.kamadolli.com/2011/08/india-e-commerce-joining-the-rant-wagon/) Travel Expedia Ctrip.com MMYT a. MMYT (and other Indian players) need to ramp P/S (ttm) 2.14 11.55 5.62 up hotel and Package bookings in order to reach Return on 15.59% 18.87% 18.82% Equity (ttm) global margin standards. EV 7.24B 5.32B 664.47M b. Reported Revenues are $124.72M for FY11 Profit Margin 12.09% 35.07% 3.87% (ttm) c. Gross bookings $742.5 million for FY11 Source: Google Finance d. MMYT just released Q1’12 reports showing healthy growth in Revenues (http://investors.makemytrip.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=598162)
  • 7. The Three Facets of Ecommerce Ecommerce can be broadly divided into three distinct modules Customer Facing, Supply Networks and Delivery Channels (See Appendix 1: Evolution of an ECommerce Startup / ECommerce Org Chart) Customer Facing 1. Web Product Design. User friendly interface is crucial to converting Visitors into Buyers. Typical Ecommerce conversions are 4-6%. China/US Ecommerce sites convert at > 10% levels. 2. Customer Acquisition. Digital Marketing channels including SEO, SEM, Social Media, SMS, Emails, Mobile Ads; Offline channels include Print, Radio and TV. Typical Cost per Acquisition range from Rs 400 to Rs 2000. Marketing through Digital Channels is clearly not cheap. (See Appendix 7: Google AdWords CPC by Segment) (http://www.alootechie.com/news/google-targets-triple-digit-revenue-growth-through- local-ads-indian-smbs) . 3. Customer Support (Social Media and Inbound Call Centers) 4. Payment Processing. E.g. Avenues.com, ItzCash. Costs can vary from 2-5% depending on volumes and form of payment. Failure rates and Fraud have considerably reduced to an acceptable level Supply Networks Supply networks have evolved differently for each vertical. Merchandiser- Vendor negotiations greatly determine Payment terms and Supply Time/reliability. In general the more consolidated an industry the more organized the network (E.g. Flight Ticketing). 1. Books, Electronics & Apparel Regional Dealers Brands: Ecommerce National Players such as Level Samsung, LG, Rupa, Flipkart, Distributor Levi’s, Van Heusen Infibeam, F & You Most brands/publishers work with national level distributors, who then distribute to regional dealers. Ecommerce players can work with either Regional Dealers or National Distributors. With volume these can be removed and direct brand relationships need to be built.
  • 8. 2. Travel Ticketing: Ticket Aggregators such as GDS provide fairly straightforward integration into flight availability and booking. 3. Hotel Booking: A challenge exists in streamlining the various layers of intermediaries /aggregators which exist without adding any real value between the Customer and Hotel. Myriad layers of intermediaries with vested interests are not allowing this category to take off in spite of huge margins and high volumes. However as OTA’s gain volumes they are replacing some of these aggregators and there is an opportunity to consolidate the value chain. Affiliates Such as Ixigo OTA’s such as Cleartrip, Travelguru, Yatra, MMT Agent Side Hotel Side Aggregators Aggregators Such as Via, Such As Hbsi Travelocity, Expedia Travel Agents 4. Deals: There are no existing networks for aggregating deals. Thus it is a challenge to build a Business Development team to collect deals. At the same time it is an opportunity given that margins do not need to be shared with intermediaries. Delivery Channels Needed only for product delivery, deals/ticketing can forgo this expense 1. Inventory Management, Warehousing, Packaging and Shipping: Technology enabled CRM systems and demand forecasting are vital to optimize delivery time & cost. 2. Couriers and Last mile delivery channels: (E.g. Aramaex and AFL Couriers) Negotiations determine freight costs, time to deliver, attempts at delivery, etc.. COD greatly boosts market size; however it comes with its own challenges around Returns, Incorrect Address, etc... Hence this is more expensive (even excluding freight) than traditional Payment processors.
  • 9. Market share & Competition Non travel Retail related sites reach about 54% (up 14% YoY) of the Online Audience in India. With the bulk of the reach coming from Computer Software downloads, Consumer Electronics, Hardware, Comparison shopping and Books Travel related sites reach 40% (up 13% YoY) of Indian Online users, dominated by Railways booking sites, followed by OTA’s Competitive Landscape of Consumer Ecommerce: Products Source:Vizisense Of the 7.1 million people visiting the top three OTAs, MakeMyTrip, Yatra Online and ClearTrip.com, 71 percent of visitors checked in at only one of the three sites, demonstrating relatively strong brand loyalty among the top players. Competitive Landscape for Travel based ECommerce Souce: Comscore Share of Retail Categories by Geography Source: Comscore
  • 10. Key Growth Drivers 1. Scale through a superior service quality and high repeat business and referrals. 2. Horizontal play, Number of categories served 3. Reduce operational expenses by investing in warehouses / Logistics. 4. Supplier relationships over other brands and potential new entrants 5. Variety of products available under each category. 6. Conversion rates for major players are still in the middle single digits, contrast with US/China where they are above 10%. 7. COD consists of 80% of Ecommerce transactions in China, India has much lesser. 8. South East Asia represents a huge opportunity for Indian Ecommerce companies to expand into. Snapdeal is one of the Companies considering going global. 44 Key Challenges / Barriers 1. Accounting practices at most ecommerce sites still report revenues as Gross Merchandise Value. Further deep discounts are treated as long-term amortisable marketing expenses 2. 20 % of the Users account for 64% of the total time spent on the Internet. In order to scale it is important to increase internet consumption across existing Internet users 3. Core network infrastructure in India is not capable of handling a huge surge in Internet traffic. Only 20% of the Intra Telco network is over robust fiber networks, While Telco’s concentrate on individual networks, there aren’t sufficient peering points for traffic crossover. 4. Payment system infrastructure continues to be woefully inadequate. 5. It is rumored that SEBI is considering imposing Capital gains tax on Venture capital investments. 6. Global players such as Amazon looking to enter India Internet Usage Patterns: 7. Local Language Content – Local Search Engines Like Baidu Source: Comscore Internet Distribution System & structure Shared-access (Cyber Cafes / Mobile Phones / Universities) population in India is almost as large as the Internet population accessing from work and home Figure 1 Unique Visitors (Million) Independent Vs Shared
  • 11. Online Usage Behavior trends & Key Opportunities 1. Internet Audience in India skews dramatically young, three-quarters of the web audience is under the age of 35. This skew can be attributed to the demographic profile of the country, Younger population has access to better devices and connectivity . 2. 41% of Indian Internet users visited an Education site 3. 14% of Indian Internet users visited a Personal’s site 2Internet Audience Age Group. Souce: (Dating/Matrimony, etc..) Comscore 4. 40% of Indian Internet users visited a Career services and development site 5. 77% of Indian Internet users visited a Entertainment Netflix Youku.com P/S (ttm) 4.81 30.88 site (Music/Movies/Videos). However, Online video Return on Equity 83.62% NA viewing in India is still lower than the World Average (ttm) 6. This Age group also has disposable incomes, hence EV 12.68B 2.34B could be the drivers for Ecommerce Profit Margin (ttm) 8.04% -27.96% 7. Comparison shopping is used by only 10% of the Indian Online users, give the price sensitive mindset this should increase ( Argentina/Brazil has more than 50% adoption of comparison shopping) Source: Google Finance Major Investments in the industry Company Company Investor Amount Date Description raised 1 Flipkart Online Services Ecommerce for General Atlantic $150 Million, Not Yet Pvt Ltd Books, Electronics, Partners ($1B declared Music, Movies Valuation) 2 Ixigo.com Travel Metasearch SAIF Partners, $18.5 Million August MakeMyTrip 10, 2011 2 Snapdeal (Jasper Group deals portal Bessemer Ventures, $40 Million July 26, InfoTech) Nexus Venture Partners 2011 and IndoUS Venture Partners 3 Yebhi.com Online shoes, apparel, Nexus Venture Partners $9 Million July 21, (Bigshoebazaar) bags, accessories and and Catamaran Ventures 2011 gift items 4 Zovi.com Private Label Apparel SAIF Partners & Others $5.5 Million July 5, 2011 5 Global Online Apparel Apparel, Deals, etc… Mangrove Capital $4.4 Million July 5, (FashionAndYou, Partners 2011
  • 12. DealAndYou, 6 JustDial Local business listings Sequoia Capital $10 Million June 6, site Global Equities and SAP 2011 Ventures 7 Exclusively.in Fashion flash sales Tiger Global $16 Million May 27, Management LLC, Accel 2011 Partners and Helion Ventures 8 ThePrivateSales.com Fashion flash sales Undisclosed $5 Million May 20, 2011 9 Redbus.in (PilaniSoft) Bus Tickets Helion Ventures, $6.5 Million May 16, Inventus and Seedfund 2011 10 Yatra Online Pvt Ltd, online travel Intel Capital Undisclosed May 13, company 2011 11 99labels.com Fashion flash Sales InfoEdge $3.5 Million May 11, 2011 12 Quickr a horizontal Nokia Growth Partners $8 Million May 9, classifieds player (NGP), Norwest Venture 2011 Partners and eBay Inc. 13 Policy Bazaar Financial Products InfoEdge, Intel Capital $10 Million April 21, comparison 2011 Success stories / Important Exits MakeMyTrip The MakeMyTrip (MMYT) stock surged 89% on its listing on 12th August’2010, and has been the best IPO to list in the US since Athena health Inc’s IPO in 1997 which surged 97% on listing. Justdial Just Dial’s consolidated total income stood at Rs 189.91 Crores in FY11, representing a CAGR of 39.4 per cent. Its profits after tax increased from Rs 1.64 Crores in FY07 to Rs 28.62 Crores in FY11. In FY 2011, the company addressed over 180 million search queries from millions of users across platforms. For the year ended March, Just Dial reported a profit after tax of Rs 28.6 Crores, up from last year’s Rs 18.4 Crores. Mumbai’s Just Dial plans to go down the IPO path and has filed documents with SEBI. It seeks to raise Rs 360 Crores through sale of fresh shares and some more via sale of shares by private equity (PE) investors. PE companies such as SAIF Partners (21.58 per cent), Sequoia (12.73 per cent) and Tiger Global (21.84 per cent) own large stakes. Yatra Emboldened by the success of MakeMyTrip (MMYT) Ltd’s listing on Nasdaq, the US exchange, Yatra.com, one of MMYT’s major competitors, may also go the public offer way. Industry
  • 13. sources peg the IPO figure at $50-80 million (Rs 230-370 Crores). Yatra.com has a market share of about 30 per cent, while about 48 per cent of the $1 billion (Rs 4,600 Crores) in online travel reservations made in India last year were booked through MMYT. Regulatory Advantage & legal frameworks As per regulations, foreign companies cannot enter into retail business directly (they can engage in B2B trading though) – and that’s precisely the reason why you won’t see Yahoo Shopping/Amazon running their operation in India. FDI up to 100% permitted for e-commerce activities subject to the condition that such companies would divest 26% of their equity in favor of the Indian public in five years, if these companies are listed in other parts of the world. Such companies would engage only in business to business (B2B) e-commerce and not in retail trading
  • 14. Appendix 1: Evolution of an ECommerce Startup / ECommerce Org Chart 1. Get ECommerce site up to take transactions (Typically 3-6 months since start) a. Get website ready (either build from scratch or use a hosted shopping cart) b. Setup payment gateway c. Setup a shipping partner d. Upload and manage initial list of products e. Setup and manage initial supplier list for products to be drop shipped (or ship from own simple warehouse) Team needed: Business (customer service, supply chain, operations, legal, etc) + Engineering (1-2 folks should suffice) 2. Get to 100 transactions / day & unit profitability (Typically 9 months to 1.5 years since start) a. Optimize website for SEO, put an affiliate marketing program, pay for SEM, social media b. Expand product list and supplier list c. Setup small warehouse (if customization is required) and manage inventory costs Team added: Digital marketing, Procurement manager, Supply Chain and Logistics Managers and Customer Service, Increase engineering (User experience, Scalability experts, etc.) 3. Get to 500 transactions / day & scale (Typically 2-4 years from start) a. Include brand marketing efforts including TV, print and billboard advertising b. Expand into adjacent vertical products spaces, add new suppliers c. Keep refining website to include up sell, cross sell and analytics efforts Team added: Head of brand marketing, Category manager (Merchandise Manager) for each category, Catalog manager (write product descriptions, take product photos, etc.) 4. Show gross profitability and scale beyond 1000 transactions a. Manage inventory and costs and ensure optimization of logistics and warehousing b. Recruit and manage team for growth c. Look for non-linear sources of traffic to the website, possibly add corporate sales Figure 3 Source http://www.pluggd.in/author/mukund/
  • 15. Appendix 2: Fundamental Analysis of Global Ecommerce Players Figure 4 Source: http://blog.kamadolli.com/
  • 16. Appendix 3: Revenue Growth Projections 1. US Ecommerce Growth rates have been in the 20-30% range over the past decade 2. In India, Broadband Penetration Growth(Source: http://rtn.asia/347_indias-broadband- growth-slows-65-december-quarter) > 20%, Plus Revenue Per User Growth > 10 % will support sustained Ecommerce growth > 30% 3. Related technologies such as Mobile penetration have grown faster (although later)in India than in US 4. Globalization and Cultural convergence will lead to higher consumption aspirations 5. Adoption amongst Tier3 cities and villages as well as amongst low income groups suggests mass appeal 6. Recent technology Innovations have reduced digital fraud to below retail cash fraud rates 7. There is an immediate opportunity to win customers buying offline after looking for Information Online 8. We are looking at an opportunity to create the next Airtel / Tata / Reliance The total retail sales in India will grow %Age Transactions Online (2016) Ecommerce market (INR Crores) from US$ 395.96 billion in 2011 to US$ 5 157024 6 188429 785.12 billion by 2015 7 219834 http://www.ibef.org/industry/retail.aspx). 8 251238 Currently 3% of retail transactions occur 9 282643 10 314048 online, which will grow to 7-9% by 2016. 11 345453 12 376858 Figure 5 Ecommerce Market Size Vs Online as a %age of total retail
  • 17. Appendix 4: Current Revenue Sensitivity 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Projections 300 13 17 22 26 30 400 17 23 29 35 40 Sensitivity of Yearly Revenues (INR Crores)to 500 22 29 36 43 50 Conversion rates and Average Transaction 600 26 35 43 52 60 Size. These tables are drawn using Average 700 30 40 50 60 71 Visitors from Appendix 7. Figure 6, Revenue projections for Books/Electronics/Music/Movies Appendix 5: List of Ecommerce players by category 1. Gifts, cakes etc. Infibeam.com, Fernsnpetals.com, IndianGiftsPortal.com, Talash.com GlimGifts.com 2. Books Flipkart.com, Landmarkonthenet.com, A1books.co.in 3. Custom designed T-shirt, mug, calendar etc Myntra.com,Zoomin.com, Snapfish.in, Picsquare.com 4. ApparelsPantaloons, Shoppersstop.com, Inkfruit.com,UtsavSarees.comGlobusZovi.com 5. Sweets and bakery items Mithaimate.com 6. Artwork auction Saffronart.com 7. A-Z items for Babies Hushbabies.com, Firstcry.com, BalGopal.com, Kidloo.comBabyoye.com 8. Movie ticket bookingBookmyshow.comPVRCinemas.com 9. Online travel ticketing and hotel booking Irctc.co.in, Redbus.in, MakeMyTrip.com, Yatra.com, TripAdvisor.in, ClearTrip.com, Travelguru.com,Expedia.co.in, Ezeego1.co.in, Ixigo.com, TravelMasti.com, Hotels.com 10. Airlines portals Goindigo.in, Indian Airlines, Jetlite.com, Flykingfisher.com, Goair.in, Spicejet.com, Jetairways 11. B2C ( Multiple products ) Ebay.in, IndiaTimes, Rediff Shopping, Bigbazar, Homeshop18.com, Shop.zapak.com, Shop.in.com, Tradeus.in, Indiaplaza.in, Egully.com, 20north.comTimtara.com YepmeShopping.comBigadda.com 12. Rent a movie BigFlix.com,Seventymm.com 13. FootwearYebhi.com,Metro ShoesBata ShoesBeStylish 14. Deal a day SnapDeal.com, Dealsandyou.com, Mydala.com, Koovs.com, Grabbon.com, BindaasBargain.com, Taggle.com, SoSasta.com, Dealivore.com, Grako.in, Dealsonline4u.com Bagittoday.com 99labels.com Fashionandyou.com Timesdeal.com Rediff-DealHoJaye Dealface.com DealYantra.comBuzzintown DealsDealsNow (For Corporates) 15. Electronics, Gadgets, PhonesDell.co.in, Ezone, EDigiWorld, BitFang.comLetsbuy.com LootSpot.comNext.co.in, infibeam.com 16. Jewellery Caratlane.com, Suratdiamond.com Ddamas.co.in 17. Lingerie Straps and Strings, Ngal Originals, Victoria’s Secret India 18. Sports Playgroundonline.com Esportsbuy.com 19. Health, Fitness, Beauty, Wellness Health Shoppe, Urbantouch 20. Perfumes Perfume2Order, Beautymart.in,PerfumesDirect 21. Groceries, Vegetables, Fruits AaramShop.com Mandifresh
  • 18. Appendix 6: Vertical specific demographics OTA & Hotel Booking Each Web property receives on an average 150,000 Unique Users / Day (Growing > 100% annually). In a month these properties reached around 4% of the Indian Population Users spent about 8 minutes per visit, enough time to research and buy. Figure 7 Daily Unique Visitors by Month Primary customers are Young Graduate Males, > 15 above 60 Middle Income Groups. 10 - 14.99 45 - 60 Long tail in terms of 7 - 9.99 35 - 44 5 - 6.99 25 - 34 lower Income groups is 2 - 4.99 15 - 24 also visible <2 below 15 Early adoption amongst 0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60 the Under 15 and 15-24 Age group who will lead consumption in the Figure 2 %Users by Income (INR Lakhs/Yr) Figure 3 %Users by Age decade. coming Metro’s and Tier one 47.5 cities account for roughly half the traffic, with the remainder distributed across India. Showing the long tail of users 12.00 12.50 7.25 3.50 4.75 4.75 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.25 2.25 Table 1 %Users by City
  • 19. Books & Electronics Each Web property receives on an average 40,000 Unique Users / Day (Growing > 80% annually). Amazon still gets 80,000 Unique visits indicating opportunity for growth, Homeshop18 and Futurebazaar also get similar number of visits In a month these properties reached around 1.5% of the Figure 8 Daily Unique Visitors by Month Indian Population. Users spent 7 minutes per > 15 above 60 visit, enough time to 10 - 14.99 45 - 60 research & transact. 7 - 9.99 35 - 44 Primary customers are 5 - 6.99 25 - 34 Young Graduate Males & 2 - 4.99 15 - 24 <2 below 15 Females, Middle Income Groups. Long tail in terms of 0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60 lower Income groups is also visible Figure 2 %Users by Income (INR Lakhs/Yr) Figure 3 Early adoption amongst the %Users by Age Under 15 and 15-24 Age group who will lead consumption in the coming decade. 46.3 Long tail in city traffic Typical Conversion rates are 4-6%. i.e. revenues of INR 36-52 Crores (Appendix 3) 10.0 10.0 7.5 5.0 6.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.5 Table 2 %Users by City
  • 20. Apparel Each Web property receives on an average 30,000 Unique Users / Day (Growing > 220% annually). Established offline Brands such as Shoppers stop are lagging the New entrants In a month these properties reached around 1.25% of the Indian Population. Users spent 9.2 minutes per Figure 9 Daily Unique Visitors by Month visit, this is higher than travel, books and electronics indicating a more engaging > 15 above 60 experience 10 - 14.99 45 - 60 Contrary to perception 7 - 9.99 35 - 44 5 - 6.99 25 - 34 males (60%) outnumber 2 - 4.99 15 - 24 females (40%) <2 below 15 Primary customers are Young Graduate Adults, 0 20 40 0 20 40 60 Middle - High Income Groups. Long tail in terms of Figure 2 %Users by Income (INR Lakhs/Yr) Figure 3 %Users by Age Income groups is also lower visible Early adoption amongst the 15-24 Age group who will lead consumption in the 53.00 coming decade. Long tail in city traffic 8.25 8.25 9.50 9.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.50 1.75 2.25 Table 3 %Users by City
  • 21. Daily Deals Snapdeal is a clear winner receiving on an average 425,000 Unique Users / Day (Growing >3000% annually). Remaining websites are far behind at 30,000 UU’s/Day In a month Snapdeal reached around 13% of the Indian Population. Users spent 3.7 minutes per visit, indicates casual Figure 10 Daily Unique Visitors by Month (TTM) browsing, not enough time for purchase Primary customers are > 15 above 60 10 - 14.99 45 - 60 Students/Young Graduate 7 - 9.99 35 - 44 Adults, Middle - High 5 - 6.99 25 - 34 Income Groups. Long tail in 2 - 4.99 15 - 24 terms of lower Income <2 below 15 groups is also visible Early adoption amongst the 0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60 15-24 Age group who will lead consumption in the Figure 2 %Users by Income (INR Lakhs/Yr) Figure 3 %Users by Age decade. coming Long tail in city traffic 80.00 68.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 8.00 8.00 10.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 Table 4 %Users by City
  • 22. Appendix 7: Google AdWords CPC by Segment Clearly, CPC are highest for Deals and Electronics, whereas Apparel has very low CPC’s