Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012

Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
September 2012

Economic Recovery Index © Amárach Research1

The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
September 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 16th to 22nd September 2012 inclusive.

Economic Recovery Index 2

A Matter of Measurement

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

We have seen a fall back in the economic outlook since July:

Aug’12: 0% Sept’12: 1%

Aug’12: 2% Sept’12: 2%

Aug’12: 42% Sept’12: 46% Aug’12: 25% Sept’12: 23%

Aug’12: 31% Sept’12: 28%


The Economic Recovery Index

Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has weakened since July though is higher than September last year:

30

25

20

15

10

5

0
Apr '09 July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan '12 Mar May July Sept

Source: Amárach Research, September 2012

Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly

52%
42%
41%43% 39%
48% 42%
44% 42% 46%
41% 43% 41% 42%43% 42% 28% 30%31%
26%24%25%24% 26%24%26%26% 26% 25%25%27% 24%
27%
34% 31% 23% 23% 23%22%21%
26%18%
Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug
Nov

Nov

Nov
Oct

Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec

Apr'12
Sept

Sept

Sept

Sept
Apr '09

Apr '10

Apr '11
Jun

Feb

June

Feb

June

Feb

June
July

July

July

July
Jan

Jan

Jan
May

Mar

May

Mar

May

Mar

May
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
54%55%
61%
65% 55% 51% 53% 51%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 48%44%48%47% 47%48%48%47%49% 45%44%
50% 47% 47%
45% 46%
51% 55% 52% 53% 50% 46%
54% 41% 42%39% 43%
44%33%
Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug
Nov

Nov

Nov
Oct

Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Apr '09

Apr '10

Apr '11
Sept

Sept

Sept

Apr'12

Sept
June

June

June
Jun

Feb

Feb

Feb
July

July

July

July
May

May

May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan

Jan

Looking Ahead: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”

ABC1 C2DE
September 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 478 523

Strongly Agree 6% 8% 4% 7% 6% 9% 6% 3% 5% 7%

Slightly Agree 18% 19% 18% 24% 21% 15% 17% 16% 21% 16%

Neither/Nor 10% 9% 10% 13% 12% 10% 3% 9% 9% 11%

Slightly Disagree 25% 24% 26% 30% 23% 22% 23% 25% 27% 22%

Strongly Disagree 35% 35% 34% 15% 26% 42% 46% 43% 33% 37%


Looking Ahead: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper –
who agree/disagree with the statement:
“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”
Irish
September Ulster Dunne Voda Irish Irish
Total AIB BOI Tesco Aldi O2 Meteor Daily
2012 Bank Stores fone Times Indo
Mail
Weighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92

Strongly Agree 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 4% 8% 8% 12%

Slightly Agree 18% 20% 19% 16% 21% 18% 16% 16% 19% 22% 23% 22% 19%

Neither/Nor 10% 10% 9% 6% 10% 10% 11% 9% 8% 12% 8% 10% 8%

Slightly Disagree 25% 23% 28% 23% 23% 28% 26% 28% 24% 23% 24% 27% 21%

Strongly Disagree 35% 33% 34% 40% 33% 32% 35% 36% 37% 29% 30% 31% 34%


Recovery Outlook 2


I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the
recession: % agree strongly/slightly

50% 47%
45%45% 41%41% 41% 42%
51% 47% 48% 47% 43% 39%37%36%39%40% 39% 38%38% 37% 40% 38%36% 39%
38% 35%
48%48% 48% 46% 47% 45% 46% 32%34% 34% 34% 34%33%
45%
Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug
Nov

Nov

Nov
Oct

Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Apr '09

Apr '10

Apr '11
Sept

Sept

Sept

Apr'12

Sept
June

June

June
Jun

Feb

Feb

Feb
July

July

July

July
May

May

May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan

Jan
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than
it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61%60%61%60%
56% 56% 53% 55%
55% 55% 53%
59% 49% 47%48%50% 49%46%49% 46%49%48%50% 46%
52% 54% 52% 45%45% 45% 44% 45%45%43% 45%45%43% 42%
53%51% 50%
Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug
Nov

Nov

Nov
Oct

Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Apr '09

Apr '11
Sept

Sept

Sept

Apr'12

Sept
Apr'10

June

June

June
Jun

Feb

Feb

Feb
July

July

July

July
May

May

May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan

Jan

Heads Down: 1
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”

ABC1 C2DE
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 1001 495

Strongly Agree 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 11% 9% 9%

Slightly Agree 27% 28% 25% 24% 32% 18% 22% 32% 27% 28%

Neither/Nor 13% 12% 14% 18% 14% 13% 7% 13% 13% 12%




Heads Down: 2
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Irish
Ulster Dunne Voda Irish Irish
September 2012 Total AIB BOI
Bank
Tesco
Stores
Aldi O2
fone
Meteor
Times Indo
Daily
Mail
Weighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92

Strongly Agree 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 4% 8% 8% 12%

Slightly Agree 18% 20% 19% 16% 21% 18% 16% 16% 19% 22% 23% 22% 19%

Neither/Nor 10% 10% 9% 6% 10% 10% 11% 9% 8% 12% 8% 10% 8%




Recovery Outlook 3


The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession
will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

46% 35% 36%
43% 43%
42% 30%
40%39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20% 23% 24%
35% 28%27% 16%
11%
16% 15% 13% 12%12% 16% 14% 12% 17% 15%
16%
18% 20%
14%
Aug

Aug

Aug
Nov

Nov

Oct
Nov
Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Apr '10

Apr '11
Sept

Sept

Sept
Apr'12
June

June

June
Feb

Feb

Feb
Oct '09

July

July

July
May

May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan

Jan
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before:

22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21%21%
18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 22% 25% 19%
16% 15%15% 18% 15%15% 19% 17% 20% 18%
18%
22% 20% 17%
20% 15% 17%
13%
Aug

Aug

Aug
Nov

Nov

Oct
Nov
Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Apr '11
Sept

Sept

Sept
Apr'10

Apr'12
June

June

June
Feb

Feb

Feb
Oct '09

July

July

July
May

May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan

Jan

Financial Sentiment Indicators

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: September 2010, 2011, 2012 & September 2012

I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt 18% 14% 17% 13% 24% 23% 28% 26%
•Borrowing
Sept'10 Sept'11 Aug'12 Sept'12
Sept'10 Sept'11 Aug'12 Sept'12

Now is a good time to
Paying off debts is my I would be happy to buy a house for those
main financial priority borrow from a bank if I who want to
need to
59% 62% 64% 62%
56% 54% 56% 57%

27% 23% 25% 24%

Sept'10 Sept'11 Aug'12 Sept'12 Sept'10 Sept'11 Aug'12 Sept'12 Sept'10 Sept'11 Aug'12 Sept'12


Spendthrift: 1
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”

ABC1 C2DE
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 478 523

Strongly Agree 3% 4% 3% 2% 6% 3% 4% 2% 4% 3%

Slightly Agree 10% 12% 7% 15% 13% 9% 6% 6% 9% 10%

Neither/Nor 16% 17% 16% 17% 17% 14% 10% 20% 18% 15%




Spendthrift: 2
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Irish
Mail
Weighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92

Strongly Agree 3% 4% 3% 1% 5% 2% 2% 4% 3% 4% 7% 3% 3%

Slightly Agree 10% 10% 9% 8% 11% 7% 10% 10% 8% 11% 11% 16% 13%

Neither/Nor 16% 18% 18% 13% 18% 14% 11% 17% 18% 15% 16% 13% 15%




Rainy Day: 1
“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”

ABC1 C2DE
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 478 523

Strongly Agree 11% 11% 11% 22% 12% 8% 3% 9% 9% 12%

Slightly Agree 15% 15% 16% 19% 22% 13% 9% 13% 16% 14%

Neither/Nor 19% 20% 18% 22% 16% 15% 15% 24% 19% 18%




Rainy Day: 2
“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”
Irish
Mail
Weighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92

Strongly Agree 11% 11% 10% 11% 11% 14% 13% 12% 11% 12% 14% 14% 15%

Slightly Agree 15% 16% 16% 10% 17% 19% 10% 15% 15% 15% 18% 20% 19%

Neither/Nor 19% 20% 21% 16% 20% 15% 17% 18% 21% 15% 19% 17% 18%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2012
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

10%

0%
June

June

June
Nov
Dec

July

Nov
Dec

July

Nov
Dec

July
Oct

Oct

Oct

Apr'12
Apr '09

Apr '10

Apr '11
Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug
Sept

Sept

Sept

Sept
Feb

Feb

Feb
May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Jun

Jan

Jan

Jan
Jul

May

May


The Mood of the Nation 2

% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2012

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug
Feb

Feb

Feb
June

June
Jun
Jul

Jan

Jan

Jan

Apr'12
Mar

Mar

Mar
May

May

May

May
Apr '09

Oct

Apr '10

Oct

Apr '11

Oct
Nov
Dec

Nov
Dec

Nov
Dec
Sept

July

Sept

July

Sept

July

Sept
June


Changing Moods: 1

% saying Yes: September 2012
ABC1 C2DE
F50+ F50-
1001 474 527 175 202 198 155 271 491 510
Enjoyment 51% 51% 51% 56% 45% 38% 49% 62% 57% 45%

Happiness 51% 46% 55% 62% 50% 46% 41% 53% 53% 48%

Stress 42% 41% 43% 46% 45% 50% 44% 31% 43% 42%

Worry 41% 39% 42% 42% 43% 46% 42% 33% 38% 43%

Anxiety 29% 30% 27% 29% 33% 30% 32% 22% 28% 29%
Boredom 27% 27% 28% 50% 31% 27% 20% 14% 25% 30%
Physical Pain 22% 21% 23% 13% 18% 23% 27% 27% 19% 24%

Sadness 17% 16% 18% 25% 15% 18% 19% 12% 14% 21%

Anger 14% 15% 14% 17% 16% 17% 11% 11% 13% 15%

Fear 10% 11% 8% 9% 10% 11% 10% 7% 9% 10%


Changing Moods: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper:
did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: September 2012
Irish
Mail
1001 384 292 113 413 178 145 277 352 200 209 243 94
Enjoyment 51% 54% 51% 52% 52% 46% 51% 47% 52% 52% 57% 55% 49%

Happiness 51% 55% 51% 44% 52% 44% 54% 49% 51% 47% 57% 50% 55%

Stress 42% 39% 42% 49% 44% 42% 45% 40% 39% 45% 36% 44% 52%

Worry 41% 40% 40% 38% 42% 40% 40% 41% 36% 43% 36% 38% 46%

Anxiety 29% 27% 29% 35% 33% 25% 24% 29% 25% 33% 30% 27% 34%
Boredom 27% 27% 26% 30% 27% 29% 31% 25% 25% 35% 26% 24% 32%
Physical Pain 22% 22% 20% 23% 22% 22% 23% 18% 26% 22% 20% 20% 22%

Sadness 17% 14% 21% 19% 17% 19% 12% 14% 18% 19% 15% 16% 21%

Anger 14% 15% 11% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 15% 16% 11% 12% 18%

Fear 10% 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 6% 11% 9% 10% 11% 10% 11%


Anxious Times

This month’s ERI report combines a mix of
good news and bad: though more of the latter
unfortunately.

The percentage of consumers ‘relaxed about
spending money’ is the lowest in nearly 20
months – not good heading towards Christmas.

That said, it is clear that certain sub-groups –
and brands, e.g.: The Irish Times – have
customer bases that are slightly more inclined
to spend, though not hugely inclined.

As ever, the challenge for growth-hungry Irish
marketers is to identify and go after the groups
that will help you meet your goals: preferably
before your competitors do so.


Let’s Get Visual

If you find Amárach’s Economic
Recovery Index useful (and we
know many of you do) then you
might be interested in our data
visualisation initiative with
Delphi Analytics.

We have partnered to create
an extraordinarily powerful
resource online – for free – to
enable marketers and others to
look at the historical trend in
the ERI going back to April
2009 by demographic group,
main bank etc.

Find out more here:
http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-
analytics/economic-recovery-index/


Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research
agency, providing a full range of research
services to our Irish and international
clients. We specialise in turning information
into insight; and insight into foresight.

Our experienced team of directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and
cati surveys; as well as qualitative research
including focus groups, in-depths and
ethnographic studies. We also offer a
unique field-only service to universities and
international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.

e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012

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