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J.C. Parets, CMT
Investment Process: Top/Down Method




Top Down Method
                    Analyze all Asset Classes across the Globe
                          i.e., stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies




                          Narrow Focus to Select Concepts
                  i.e., US Stocks trending higher, Precious Metals basing, etc.


                             Focus on the specific Trades:
                                (Indices and Metals example)
                      i.e., Short Russell 2000, Long Nasdaq, Long Silver
                                            and Gold

                             Risk Analysis & Stress Test


                                          Portfolio
                                          Allocation




                                                                                            2
US Stock Sectors Positive Correlations




http://www.macroaxis.com/




                                                             3
Strategy: Sector Rotation




                   4
Proprietary Sector Rotation Model




                            5
Strategy: Momentum Analysis




                     6
Strategy: Seasonality




Source: Ned Davis Research Group

                                                   7
Strategy: Sentiment




* AAII % from Avg
                    Source: Fusion IQ

                                                      8
Risk Management




      5000.00

      4500.00

      4000.00

      3500.00

      3000.00

      2500.00

      2000.00

      1500.00

      1000.00

       500.00

         0.00
                         Jun-02




                                                                                                          Mar-06




                                                                                                                                     Jun-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-12
                Jan-02




                                                                                                 Oct-05




                                                                                                                            Jan-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oct-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-12
                                           Apr-03




                                                                                        May-05




                                                                                                                                                        Apr-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                     May-10
                                  Nov-02




                                                                                                                   Aug-06




                                                                                                                                               Nov-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Aug-11
                                                    Sep-03
                                                             Feb-04
                                                                      Jul-04




                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-08
                                                                                                                                                                          Feb-09
                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-09
                                                                               Dec-04




                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec-09
                                                                                                            SPX                               No Draw




The chart above shows the difference in performance of the S&P 500 by simply avoiding
                           these three drawdown periods.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           9
Analyst EPS Estimate Changes for $GOOG Q4 2012




                                         10
$AAPL 2009-2012 +650%




                11
$AAPL/$RIMM 2009-2012 +5000%




                       12
Crude Oil vs Natural Gas Rally




                        13
Crude Oil vs Natural Gas Ratio




                        14
Dow Industrials vs Gold Ratio




Source: Chartstore.com

                                                15
Japan - Nikkei 225




Source: Chartstore.com

                                     16
Germany – DAX 30




Source: Chartstore.com

                                    17
Cotton




Source: Chartstore.com

                         18
US Steel - $X




       19
US Steel - $X (Arithmetic)




                    20
Emerging Markets vs USA




                  21
Brazil vs USA




       22
Brazil vs USA




       23
Disclaimer




The information, opinions, and other materials contained in this presentation is the property of Eagle Bay Capital, LLC
and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization of the copyright holder in
writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by Eagle Bay Capital, LLC based on
information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express, or implied, as
to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does
not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities or subscribe for interest in the Ibis Fund I, LP (“The
Fund”). The Fund is available for subscription only on the basis of the relevant memorandum of terms, which is
available only to investors satisfying the applicable eligibility criteria for investment. The General Partner may decline
to accept any subscription.

This document may include estimates, projections and other “forward-looking” statements, due to numerous
factors, actual events may differ substantially from those presented. Opinions and estimates offered herein constitute
Eagle Bay Capital, LLC’s judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market
trends which are based on current market conditions

An investment in the fund is subject to loss of capital and is only appropriate for persons who can bear that risk and
the nature of an investment in the fund. Eagle Bay Capital, LLC is not a registered investment advisor and the fund is
not a registered investment company.

These materials are not intended to constitute legal, tax, or accounting advice or investment recommendations.
Prospective investors should consult their own advisors regarding such matters.
Contact Us




  J.C. Parets, CMT
 Founder & President
  jc@eaglebaycapital.com

       212.808.0911

535 Fifth Avenue - 25th Floor
   New York, NY 10017

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Stocktoberfest presentation 10 26-12 post

  • 2. Investment Process: Top/Down Method Top Down Method Analyze all Asset Classes across the Globe i.e., stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies Narrow Focus to Select Concepts i.e., US Stocks trending higher, Precious Metals basing, etc. Focus on the specific Trades: (Indices and Metals example) i.e., Short Russell 2000, Long Nasdaq, Long Silver and Gold Risk Analysis & Stress Test Portfolio Allocation 2
  • 3. US Stock Sectors Positive Correlations http://www.macroaxis.com/ 3
  • 7. Strategy: Seasonality Source: Ned Davis Research Group 7
  • 8. Strategy: Sentiment * AAII % from Avg Source: Fusion IQ 8
  • 9. Risk Management 5000.00 4500.00 4000.00 3500.00 3000.00 2500.00 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 500.00 0.00 Jun-02 Mar-06 Jun-07 Mar-11 Jun-12 Jan-02 Oct-05 Jan-07 Oct-10 Jan-12 Apr-03 May-05 Apr-08 May-10 Nov-02 Aug-06 Nov-07 Aug-11 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-04 Dec-09 SPX No Draw The chart above shows the difference in performance of the S&P 500 by simply avoiding these three drawdown periods. 9
  • 10. Analyst EPS Estimate Changes for $GOOG Q4 2012 10
  • 13. Crude Oil vs Natural Gas Rally 13
  • 14. Crude Oil vs Natural Gas Ratio 14
  • 15. Dow Industrials vs Gold Ratio Source: Chartstore.com 15
  • 16. Japan - Nikkei 225 Source: Chartstore.com 16
  • 17. Germany – DAX 30 Source: Chartstore.com 17
  • 19. US Steel - $X 19
  • 20. US Steel - $X (Arithmetic) 20
  • 24. Disclaimer The information, opinions, and other materials contained in this presentation is the property of Eagle Bay Capital, LLC and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by Eagle Bay Capital, LLC based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express, or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities or subscribe for interest in the Ibis Fund I, LP (“The Fund”). The Fund is available for subscription only on the basis of the relevant memorandum of terms, which is available only to investors satisfying the applicable eligibility criteria for investment. The General Partner may decline to accept any subscription. This document may include estimates, projections and other “forward-looking” statements, due to numerous factors, actual events may differ substantially from those presented. Opinions and estimates offered herein constitute Eagle Bay Capital, LLC’s judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends which are based on current market conditions An investment in the fund is subject to loss of capital and is only appropriate for persons who can bear that risk and the nature of an investment in the fund. Eagle Bay Capital, LLC is not a registered investment advisor and the fund is not a registered investment company. These materials are not intended to constitute legal, tax, or accounting advice or investment recommendations. Prospective investors should consult their own advisors regarding such matters.
  • 25. Contact Us J.C. Parets, CMT Founder & President jc@eaglebaycapital.com 212.808.0911 535 Fifth Avenue - 25th Floor New York, NY 10017