A Fast-Changing World Needs Agile Policies
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Describes a new approach for rapidly developing policies and strategies to keep pace with a fast-changing world.
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A Fast-Changing World Needs Agile Policies
- 1. A Fast-Changing World Needs Agile Policies Albert Simard Defence R&D Canada Presented to INFONEX Strategic Policy Development Ottawa, ON Nov 27-28, 2013
- 2. Outline New Reality Probing Sense-Making Adapting M. C. Escher (1957) 1
- 3. Reality New Reality Accelerating change Complex world Agile framework 2
- 4. Reality Traditional Policy Time Scale Old Policy 5-7 years Policy Change New Policy 2-3 years 5-7 years 3
- 5. Adapting Traditional Policy Change Create Urgency Establish Coalition Develop Plan Provide Incentives Empower Action Early Success Maintain Momentum Institutionalize Kotter (2002) Like great ships, government agencies are slow to change direction 4
- 7. Time to Reach 50 Million Users Reality Million Users 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 Days 1750 2000 2250 6
- 8. Reality 21st Century Challenges Safety & Security Information Society Globalization Accelerating Change International Partnerships Complex Technologies Finite Resources Diverse Workforce US National Science Foundation (2001) Knowledge Economy Life-Long Learning Citizen Engagement Sustainable Development 7
- 10. Reality Agile Approach to Policy Detect Pattern Adapt (rapid) Modular Approach Probe (continuous) 9
- 11. Environmental Change Life Cycle Full Too Late Late Data & Knowledge Middle Early Adaptation Window Detection None Origin Start Finish Time 10
- 12. Adaptation Decision Framework Importance of pattern: low (1), medium (2), high (3) Existing knowledge: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3) Available data: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3) Resource implications: high (1), medium (2), low (3) Risks of inaction: low (1), medium (2), high (3) Likely impact: minimal (1), moderate (2), significant (3) 6-11points - DEFER; 12-17 points - MAYBE; 18-24 points - ACT No hard answers; judgement and experience are necessary 11
- 13. Traditional Policy Development Cycle Reality Issue Identification Evaluation Implementation Environmental Scan Organization Decision (Australian Policy Handbook) Strategy Development Consultation Coordination 12
- 14. Reality Agile Policy Framework Probing Adapting (What do we do?) (What’s happening?) SenseMaking (What does it mean?) 13
- 15. Outline New Reality Probing Sense-Making Adapting M. C. Escher (1957) 14
- 16. Probing Probing (Evaluation, Emerging Trends) Passive (monitoring, social networks) Active (intelligence, soliciting) Internal (documents, expertise) 15
- 17. Environmental Monitoring Research Cyberspace Published Literature Monitor search filter scan Conferences Media Experience Communities of practice Individuals Practitioners Share Incentives Corroborate Document Ad hoc Expertise Office apps. Repository Store (DRDC Knowledge Services, 2012) Probing Validation 16
- 18. Monitoring Cyberspace Anticipate emerging issue Anticipate stakeholder actions Discover new stakeholders Discover potential partners Learn from others Learn about new technology Monitor institutional changes Monitor public opinion Find useful information Detect new risks Only way to keep up with accelerating change
- 19. Social Networks Probing Monitoring must be focussed 18
- 20. Intelligence Sources Public Domain Government Documents Annual reports Analyst reports Public databases Speeches Broadcast media Print media Trade associations World-Wide Web Probing Non-Public Domain Change of status Human intelligence Trade shows Ask employees Ask clients Observation Aerial survey 19
- 21. Source Diversity Passive Active Probing Increased visibility, awareness, or influence Seen as active and competent player Feedback on user needs and applications Leverage the value of organizational resources Increase partnership and business opportunities Organizational business or mandate Influencing attitudes, opinions, or behavior Advocating a position, agenda, or policy Intervening in stakeholder or social activity 20
- 22. Probing Soliciting Inputs Client interviews Consultations Expert opinion Stakeholder surveys User feedback Workshops Colloquia 21
- 23. Probing Internal Inputs Mobilize Knowledge Create Knowledge Acquire Content Publish Futures Analysis Corporate Reporting Individual Learning Produce Intelligence Operations Environmental Monitoring Share Experience incentives Office apps. Repository Capture (DRDC Knowledge Services, 2012) SenseMaking 22
- 24. Sharing Attributes Probing Incentives and motivation Trust and safety Organizational culture Content security Individual privacy Different expertise Control and hoarding Large distances Different languages 23
- 25. Outline New Reality Probing Sense-Making Adapting M. C. Escher (1957) 24
- 27. Analysis Spectrum Sense-Making Quantitative (irrefutable) mathematics, logic, proof science, engineering, technology statistics, data, facts, measurement collaboration, validation, management expertise, experience, judgement opinion, perception, bias belief, emotion, values Qualitative (no evidence) 26
- 28. Analysis Principles • • • • Sense-Making Resources are required: time, effort, expertise, funding, capacity, technology, data, knowledge Complexity is inherent: strategic analysis is non-linear, involves feedback, iterations, delays, and uncertainty Methods are known: techniques are well-understood; extensive literature for most disciplines Management perspectives: understanding, trust, confidence, liabilities, risk, externalities Analysis combines science & computers; skill & technique, judgement & experience; insight & intuition. 27
- 29. Sense-Making Two Approaches Analysis: Using deduction to differentiate and study data, information, or knowledge to deduce deeper or more precise meaning or understanding. (Scientific approach) Synthesis: Using induction to integrate and study many processes as a whole to infer higher-level meaning or understanding. (Systems People tend to be good at analysis approach) or synthesis; few are good at both. 28
- 30. Sense-Making Analysis Is a Human Activity Collect information from people and organizations. Organize data based on individual perspectives. Classify issues based on human understanding. Select analytical methods using expert knowledge. Interpret results through cognitive reasoning. Validate results through dialogue and collaboration. Experience and judgement are essential 29
- 31. Community of Practice Sense-Making People with common expertise, skill, or profession (position, work, colleagues) Government, department Sector, branch, division Policy analysts, regulators Finance, purchasing Scientists, lawyers Information technologists 30
- 32. Sense-Making Communities Validate Knowledge Knowledge exists in the minds of people. Experience is as important as formal knowledge. Knowledge is tacit as well as explicit. Transferring tacit knowledge is more effective through human interaction. Knowledge is social as well as individual. Today’s knowledge is the result of centuries of collective research. Knowledge is changing at an accelerating rate. It takes a community of people to keep up with new concepts, practices, and technology. 31
- 33. Sense-Making Communities Emphasize Collaboration Dialogue, conversations in groups Sharing, exchanges among peers Candor, freedom of expression Trust, safety, honesty Transparency, openness Agreed rules of conduct Diversity, flexibility, outliers Equality, meritocracy of ideas Collective, not individual benefit 32
- 34. Sense-Making Harvesting Community Outputs Service Center: repository for community outputs; interface with communities, minimize duplication, inform communities Leader: transfer community outputs; Identify emerging trends, prioritize issues Sponsor: endorse community outputs; bridge between the community and the organization, provide support, minimize organizational barriers Champion: ensure adoption of community outputs; communicate purpose, promote the community 33
- 35. Outline New Reality Probing Sense-Making Adapting M. C. Escher (1957) 34
- 36. Adapting Adapting Structure (planning, integrating, interaction) Approve (decision, authorizing) Implement (steps, incentives, sustaining) 35
- 37. Adapting Planning Change Create vision Determine objectives Establish milestones Schedule work Integrate changes Social Interaction Document results Recommend action 36
- 39. Social Interaction Framework Collaboration Mutual Negotiation joint or peer production partnership approach high trust diverse, synergistic Adapting mutual agreement adversarial approach nominal trust structured, formal Interests Sharing Autonomous leverage knowledge passive approach moderate trust benign, supportive Competition defence or victory aggressive approach no trust secretive, hostile Compatible Conflicting Goals 38
- 40. Adapting Decision Maker Perspectives Accountable for actions Situational pressure Broader view than analysis Depth of understanding Involvement in planning Confidence in results Risk tolerance Previous experience Belief system Emotions 39
- 41. DRDC Environmental Management System “Continual” Improvement Annual Report Event response Management Review Environmental Policy Planning Checking Implementation 40
- 42. Main Messages Traditional policy approaches are too slow in a rapidly-changing world. Continuous probing monitors effectiveness and detects emerging patterns. Sense-making interprets and validates patterns and trends. Agile policies are essential to keeping pace with a dynamic world. 41
- 43. albert.simard@drdc-rddc.gc.ca Knowledge Services: A Synthesis of Best Practices http://cradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/PDFS/unc121/p536618_A1b.pdf