Renewable Energy Prospects and Cost Trends
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This presentation traces the recent market developments in Solar and Wind Energy and its impact on the prospects in Pakistan.
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Renewable Energy Prospects and Cost Trends
- 1. Renewable Energy : Prospects Update IEEEP Annual Conference March 2013 Akhtar Ali Pro-Plan Associates akhtarali1949@gmail.com 1
- 2. Renewables share in Total Energy Global = 17-18% O/W Traditional Biomass = 9% Other renewable = 8% 30 Countries have a share of more than 20% EU & US = 12% Europe & Majors = 10% Japan = 6% 2
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- 4. Global Scenario Share of Renewable Energy 2030 Conservative Moderate High 2040 2050 10 – 15 22 40% 15 35 60 40 80 4
- 5. Share of Renewable Electricity Countries Existing 2030 2050 Europe 21% 36 – 65 97 – 100 US 11% 15 – 71 30 – 90 Japan 10% 20 – 57 85 – 100 China 18% 25 – 43 50 – 92 India/Other Asia 31% 16 – 62 27 – 86 54 – 86 60 – 100 50 34 – 92 LA Africa 5
- 6. World Capacities of various Renewable Technologies - Status & Projections GW 2006 2011 2030 Hydro 800 970 1300 – 1740 Wind 74 238 920 – 2700 Solar PV 8 70 490 – 1000 0.40 1.8 40 – 140 Biomass 45 72 210 – 340 Geo thermal 9.5 11 30 – 50 Ocean 0.3 0.5 10 – 20 938+ 1362 CSP World Total 4000 USA 900 Pakistan 25 6
- 7. Countries Share in various REN USA GER Spain Italy China Solar PV % 5.7 35.6 6.5 18.3 4.4 Solar Heating Added Capacity% 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.8 81% 1.5 Solar Heating Total Capacity% 1 5% 4 64.8 1.5 Wind Power Additions MW 4.8 2 1.1 17 3 WP total capacity MW 42 28 20 45 13 49 6 Hydro % Total India Japan ROW 7.1 8.1 7
- 8. Comparative features of various Renewable Technologies Plant Size MW Capacity Factor % Energy Cost US Cents / kwh Biomass 25 – 100 70 – 80 7.9 – 17.6 Geo thermal 1 – 100 60 – 90 5.7 – 10.7 1 – 18000 30 – 60 5 – 10 Micro Hydro 0.1 – 1000 kw - 5 – 40 Ocean (Tidal) 1 – 250 23 – 29 21 – 28 Solar PV roof top 3.5 kw 10 – 20 22 Solar PV Utility 2.5 – 100 10 – 20 20 Wind Power on shore 1.5 – 3.5 20 – 40 5.21 – 16.5 0.5 – 5 MW 80 11.8 – 35.2 USD/GJ Hydro Power Grid base Biogas CHP Bio diesel 16.5 – 177 Ethanol 20 – 102/L 8
- 9. Renewable Energy Cost Trends Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001 100 COE cents/kWh 40 Wind 30 60 20 40 10 20 0 1980 COE cents/kWh 10 1990 2000 Geothermal 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1990 PV 80 2000 2010 2020 2010 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 0 1980 2020 1990 Solar thermal 2000 2010 2020 15 Biomass 12 9 6 3 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 1980 Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt) 1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. Updated: October 2002 1990 2000 2010 2020
- 10. Wind Power in Pakistan • • • • • • 2X50 MW projects already installed(Zorlu,FFC) Several at Planning Stage Total Potential Sindh-30,000 MW Actual Potential : 10% of Total(2500 MW) High Capacity Factor-31% Unrealistically High Tariff-16 cents per kWh 10
- 12. 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 7.4 8.00 5.11 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 17.21 10.21 10.21 10.65 11.67 11.96 13.00 8.61 7.5 7.78 7.80 De nm ar k Tu rke y1 Br az Ind il 2 ia (G uj r at ) US A Ch i na Ge rm an y Sl ov ak ia Sp a in Gr ee ce Fr an ce Ca na Ne da the rl a nd s US cents/kwh Feed in Tariff in EU Region Wind Power 12
- 13. an y Ch in a er m US A Br az il Tu rk ey Sw ed en De nm ar k Pa k is ta n G la nd s Sp ai n Ne th er In di a Wind Power capacity factors in selected countries % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 13
- 14. Wind Is The Cheapest Power Source in Uruguay • The average winning price in a recent Uruguayan auction for three 50MW wind power projects was US $63.70 per MWh. The cost of diesel or fuel-oil generated electricity in Uruguay is $135 – 140 per MWh. 14
- 15. Wind Power in Brazil is Cheaper than Gas • Developers of 44 wind farms bid an average of BRZ$99.58 (US$62) per MWh – below the average price for the two natural gas projects (BRZ$103.26), and a hydro project (BRZ$102) • 1 USD=2 BRZ • http://www.greenwellfuture.com/wind_pow er_in_brazil 15
- 16. Comparative Solar Suitability of regions 16
- 19. Family of PV cells and efficiencies 19
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- 21. Solar PV applications and Business models thereof •Residential/small off-grid •Residential grid integrated •Utility distributed •Utility Power Plant 21
- 22. Off-grid Solar PV application 22
- 23. Grid Connected Residential PV application 23
- 24. Schematic layout of Solar PV utility Power Plant 24
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- 37. Solar PV Cost & Tariff in various countries(2013) Capital Cost USD/W PV Panels BoS 0.63 0.85 Tariff Capacity Total Usc/kWh Factor% India(regulated) 1.481 16.2 19 India Auctions 11.8-15.9 Europe(Germany) 0.78 0.9 1.68 17.55 10 Spain/Italy 15.6 14.8 USA(Calif,Texas,Florida) 15-17 18 California Auctions 8.92-12 19 Pakistan(proposed) 2.392 23.29 17 _______________________________________________________________________ Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, PV-magazine, NEPRA) 37
- 38. Comparative CAPEX for Solar PV utilities(centralized)in various regions(2013)in USD/W India China Europe/US US target 2020 (Sunshot) Total(panels+ BoS)o/w 1.481 1.35 1.681 1 Panels 0.63 0.5 0.78 0.5 BOS o/w 0.85 0.85 0.9 0.5 land Civil Works(% of BoS) 14 0.2 Racking structures-do 13 0.2 Inverter-do 7 0.18 Grid Interface/do 15 0.12 Various incl IDC/do 10 0.2 Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, Solar Server, GTM Market Study) 38
- 39. Comparative Solar PV Installed costs 201213(USD/W)IRTPV-March2013 PV Module BoS Owner’s Cost(say) Total Europe 0.69 0.47 0.25 USA 0.69 1.00 0.25 China 0.50 0.57 0.25 1.41 1.94 1.32 39
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- 42. Pakistan Projected Demand of REN(2025-50) 2013 2025 2050 Total Installed Capacity 25000 MW 50,000 MW 150,000 MW REN Share(10,20,40%) 2500 10000 60,000 Wind 1500 5000 30,000 Solar PV 1500 5000 30,000 Hydro 6000 15000 30,000 Bio-Mass-gas BioCNG 42
- 43. Pakistan Solar PV Tubes well market •Total Tube well = 1,000,000 •o/w Diesel = 834905 – 11000 MW • Electric = 85868 – 1104 MW • 40% run less than 800 hrs •Bulk of the Pumps 11-75 ft head •75-80% of Tube Wells in Punjab •Diesel – Number of days of Tube Well per year = 125 •Electric Number of days of Tube Well per year = 184 •10 – 15 -20 – 22 – 25 HP Avg 17 •Replacement demand = 400,000 (1994 and older) •Average annual demand = 30,000 pumps @ 10 kw per = 300 MW/pr say = 100 MW (for 10,000 pumps) 43
- 44. Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube-well visa-vis Diesel Engine Case study of a 15 kW Solar Tube-well replacing diesel engine Item Solar PV capacity Capacity factor Annual Electricity produced Replacement cost of Diesel Annual Diesel replacement CAPEX Solar PV and Pump Investment Payback Period Equity @30% Loan Repayment period interest rate Annual Debt servicng Annual saving for first 10 yrs Equity payback Period Present Value of 25 yrs saving Net Present Value @10% IRR Electricity cost in1-10 years Electricity cost in11-25 years units kW hours kWh Rs/kWh Rs/yr Rs years Rs Rs years %p.a Rs Rs yrs Rs Rs % Rs/kWh Amount/Value 15 1600 24000 25 600000 1800000 3 540000 1260000 10 14 241,559 298,441 $1.81 5,446,224 3,646,224 33.31 10.06 0 44
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- 47. ISSUES •T & D Losses •High cost of Energy (circular debt) •High Capital Costs •Institutional Issues •Lack of Transparency •Lack of Competitions •Local content /technology 47
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