The document summarizes the methodology used to estimate the population sizes of different key populations in Indonesia. It uses mapping data from various sources from 2007-2009, as well as serosurveillance and IBBS survey data, to build Poisson regression models to estimate populations at the district level. The models use 2008 village statistics data on urbanization, entertainment venues, and drug use as predictors, stratified by province. The results estimate the median sizes of populations such as female sex workers, men who have sex with men, injecting drug users, and clients of sex workers. Limitations around limited IBBS data and assumptions are noted.

1. Jakarta, May 11, 2010

3. Mapping data availability

6. Poisson regression or Predictors D-FSW I-FSW Waria MSM IDU Percentage of urban-villages      Percentage of male who live in the urban-villages   Percentage of female who live in the urban-villages  Percentage of villages with sexual transaction   Percentage of villages with pub/discotheque/karaoke    Percentage of villages with theatre  Percentage of villages with drug abuse  Percentage of villages with illegal drug trading  Population size (15-49 years)      District rank on specific group (dummy)     Province (dummy)     

9. The distribution of IDU

10. The distribution of sex partner of IDU

11. The distribution of direct FSW

12. The distribution of indirect FSW

13. The distribution of waria

14. The distribution of client of SW

15. The distribution of sex partner of FSW’s client

16. The distribution of MSM

17. The distribution of MARP

18. The distribution of PLWHA