Woodfuel & charcoal Review-Miyuki Iiyama-ICRAF-2013
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On 11 September, Miyuki Iiyama, a socio-economist with the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), and colleagues from CIFOR, Oxford University and INBAR, presented the preliminary findings of a review looking at demand, supply and policies around woodfuel and charcoal in sub-Saharan Africa. The talk gave insights into charcoal production and trade in SSA, and the numerous gaps in the knowledge and data on, particularly, charcoal.
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Woodfuel & charcoal Review-Miyuki Iiyama-ICRAF-2013
- 1. What happened to the charcoal crisis? systematic reviews as a contribution to evidence-based policy on wood-based fuel in Africa by Miyuki Iiyama, Gillian Petrokofsky, Peter Kanowski and Yannick Kuehl! September 11, 2013
- 4. ©!Dessin!Andre!Houot.!Edi1on!Wandering! Why(woodfuel?( • The!discovery!of!how!to!make!fire!with!woodfuel=!humanity's(most( important(advances.!Wood!has!been!used!as!fuel!for!millennia,!mee1ng! humanity’s!basic!needs!for!cooking,!boiling!water,!ligh1ng!and!hea1ng.! • For!most!of!Europe,!managed!woodlands!con1nued!to!supply!their!markets! right!up!to!the!end!of!World!War!II.!! • Today,!woodfuels!are!major!sources!of!energy!in!the!developing!countries! • Yet!considered!backward,!against!“modern”!energy–!kerosene,!gas,!electricity!! Se=ng(the(Scene( blogs.oscLib.com!L!!
- 5. Why(woodfuel(in(SSA?( • Dominant!importance!in!energy!balance! • Linked!to!poverty,!health!risks!&!environmental!degrada1on!! Se=ng(the(Scene( WHO!(2006)!Fuels&for&Life:&Household&Energy&and&Health.!! Chidumayo!&!Gumbo!(2013)!The&environmental&impacts&of&charcoal& produc;on&in&tropical&ecosystems&of&the&world:&A&synthesis.!ESD! 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% World (12,149,845 Mtoe) Asia (3,731,223 Mtoe) Latin America (540,017 Mtoe) Africa (673,500 Mtoe) sub-Saharan Africa - South Africa (290,758 Mtoe) Contribution of biofuels and wastes* to total primary energy supply (IEA) biofuels and waste geothermal, solar etc, hydro nuclear natural gas oil products crude oil coal and peat DeforestaJon(cased(by(charcoal( producJon((black(bars)(and(other( factors((plain(bars)(in(the(countries( with(the(highest(rates(of( deforestaJon( GDP(per(capita( %(of(primary(bioenergy(in(total( energy(por_olio( •(SubTSaharan(Africa( •(Asia( •(LaJn(America(( •(North(Africa( •(woodfuels( •(hydro( •(nuclear( •(natural(gas( •(oil(products( •(crude(oil( •(coal(&(peat(
- 6. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Why(charcoal(in(SSA?( • ShiZ!from!firewood!to!charcoal!with!income!growth!&!urbaniza1on!! !!!!!!!!!!!–health!benefits! Se=ng(the(Scene( Bailis!et!al.!(2005)!Mortality&and&Greenhouse&Gas& Impacts&of&Biomass&and&Petroleum&Energy&Futures&in&Africa.!Science! BAU(—( C(charcoal)(―( RC(rapid(charcoal)((TTTT( F((fossil)(―(;(RF((rapid(F)(TTT(( No.(of(paJents(&(death( from(respiratory(diseases( SSA(populaJon(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((BAU(((((((((((((( C(charcoal)((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((RC(rapid(C)( F((fossil)(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((RF(rapid(F)(( urban( rural( firewood( charcoal( kerosene( gas( Millions(of(people(( firewood( charcoal( gas( kerosene( firewood(
- 7. Why(charcoal(in(SSA?( • ShiZ!from!firewood!to!charcoal!with!income!growth!&!urbaniza1on!! !!!!!!!–health!benefits!L!but!poten1ally!significant!land!use!impact! !!!!!!!L!a!major!driver!of!forest!degrada1on,!while!oZen!byLproducts!of!deforesta1on!! Se=ng(the(Scene( Firewood(for(domesJc(use(mostly(depend(on( dead(wood(or(branches(on/off(farm(( Charcoal(involves(selecJve(felling(of( live(indigenous(hardTwood(species( Bofa,!Ethiopia! Kerio!Valley,!Kenya! Sondu!Miriu,!Kenya! Kasigau,!Kenya! The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
- 8. Why(charcoal(in(SSA?( • Significant!economic!importance!! !!!!!!L!US$8b!revenue!+7m!employment!in!2007;!es1mated!US$12b+12m!by!2030! • complex!and!mul1Llayered!“command!and!control”Ltype!regulatory!contexts,! which!result!in!an!unclear!framework!for!stakeholders!opera1ng!in!the!sector!! Se=ng(the(Scene( Figure 17: Marketing channels for charcoal in Kenya Production Site (wood and Charcoal) Middlemen Households Road Side Wholesalers Retailers KFS Police Local Authorities www.businessdailyafrica.com!! erinmurraytravels.blogspot.com! KFS!(2013)! www.businessdailyafrica.com!! 0T3%( ~16%( 20~22%( ~3%( ~20%( ~2%( 20T30%( Nairobi,!Kenya! Yaia,!Kenya! Mutomo,!Kenya! Kerio,!Kenya! G!Ndegwa! Somalia( Export(to(Gulf( www.trust.org!!
- 10. AssumpJons,(quesJons(&(aims( AssumpJons:(the(poliJcal(will(for(sustainable(charcoal(has(been(lacking(and(the( past(wellTintended(projects(on(supply/demand(management(failed,(due(to( (1) the!widely!predicted!woodfuel!crisis!for!Africa,!with!rising!prices!for!urban! consumers,!has!not!taken!place!at!the!scale!predicted;!! (2) Past!projects!may!have!underes1mated!the!complexity!of!supplyLdemand! interac1ons!involved;!! (3) there!is!lack!of!reliable!data!to!assess!the!sustainability!of!demandLsupply( ( QuesJons:( 1. What!happened!to!charcoal!crisis?!!! 2. SupplyLdemand!interac1ons?!! 3. Is!the!quality!data!available?!( ( Aims:(( With!the!lessons!learned!from!conflic;ng&evidences&and&unbiased&knowledge,!can! we!develop!a&systema;c&approach&to!promote!sustainable!charcoal,!and!influence! the!key!stakeholders!to!mainstream!it!into!the!na1onal,!regional,!global!policies???!!!! Se=ng(the(Scene(
- 12. CRP6(Woodfuel(Review( Team:(25+!researchers!from!ICRAF!and!CIFOR!and!external!partners!(INBAR,!SLU,! UAB,!James!Huion!Ins1tute)! MeeJngs:(first!workshop!in!Bonn!(June!2012),!a!followLup!in!Doha!(December! 2012)!and!workshop!in!Bogor!(7L8!March!2013)!!!phase!I!review!approach,!teams! and!focus!ques1ons!defined!+!framework!developed! Research(on(wood(energy:(crossLcutng!topic!!!links!to:!! • energy!markets!,!efficiency!in!produc1on!and!consump1on! • energy!ladder,!compe11on!with!other!biomass!uses,!alterna1ves!(e.g.!bamboo)! • rural!and!urban!livelihoods,!food!security,!emissions!and!indoor!air!pollu1on! • employment!and!business!aspects,!value!chains! • climate!change! • landscapes!and!ecosystems,!sustainability! • interna1onal!(crossLborder)!trade!and!local!(informal)!economies!! • wide!range!of!policy!issues! !(Wood(Energy(Review(Research(framework((developed(by(Meine( van(Noordwijk)( CRP6(IniJaJve(
- 16. Outline( • Overview!of!the!evidenceLbased!forestry!programme!in!CIFOR!+! Partners! • Outline!of!systema1c!reviews!within!the!context!of!evidenceLbased! forestry! • Where!these!ideas!on!evidenceLbased!paradigms!and!systema1c! reviews!came!from!(medicine,!social!policy,!conserva1on,!etc.)! • Brief!outline!of!the!process!of!doing!a!systema1c!review!itself,!the! 1me!it!takes!and!the!types!of!teams!one!assembles!for!that! • Reflec1ons!on!how!the!EBF!ini1a1ve!is!going!–!lessons!learned!so! far,!etc.! • Reflec1ons!on!how!one!might!approach!a!policy/prac1ce!decision! without!going!through!a!systema1c!review!–openLdiscussion!topic! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 16! Methodology(
- 18. Vision CIFOR vision: " Forests on the agenda - Value of forests recognized " Decisions that influence forests and people supported by solid science and principles of good governance " Contributing to evidence-based policies for sustainable landscapes and green growth About(CIFOR(Methodology(
- 20. The(EBF(collaboraJon( CIFOR,(IUFRO,(CATIE,(CIRAD,( ICRAF,(University(of(Oxford( • agreed!to!ini1ate!the!EBF! collabora1on! • CIFOR!leads!ini1al!phase,! including!capacity!building! Progress( • Scoping,!training,!recruitment! • First!systemaJc(reviews( underway! • Ac1ve!process!to!determine! policy(and(review(prioriJes( • www.cifor.org/ebf( 1987!!Swedish!Council!on!Technology!Assessment!in! Health! medicine! 1988!!Centre!for!the!Study!of!Learning!performance! (Canada)! educa1on! 1993((Cochrane(CollaboraJon( medicine! 1993!!EPPI!Centre!(UK)! social!policy! 1994!!Centre!for!Review!&!Dissemina1on!(UK)! medicine! 1995!!Joanna!Briggs!Ins1tute!(Australia)! medicine! 1995!!Blueprints!for!Violence!Preven1on!(USA)! crime!&!jus1ce! 1999!!Center!for!Evalua1on!Research!&!Methodology! (USA)! crime!&!jus1ce! 2000((Campbell(CollaboraJon( Social!policies! 2003!!Centre!for!EvidenceLbased!Conserva1on! environment! 2007((CollaboraJon(for(Environemntal(Evidence( environment! 2009!!3iE! interna1onal! development! 2013((EBF(T(CIFOR(&(Partners( forestry! The(collaboraJon(draws(from( examples(in(other(sectors( Systema1c!reviews:!“gold(standard”!! in!these!collabora1ons!11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 20! Methodology(
- 21. Science(does(not(provide(the(soluJons( …but without good science, good solutions unlikely to be found… Best( science( Society’s(( needs(&( preferences( Expert(( opinion( EBF( Beware(of(( experts’(bias!( 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 21! Methodology(
- 22. Total(body(of(research( ( ( Research((used.( ! Evidence(Based( (Forestry( ! Current((‘haphazard’( situaJon( Total(body(of(research( Research(used( No(clear(methods(for(accessing(or( analysing(research(used(for( decisionTmaking(.(Results(not( acJvely(disseminated.( Repeatable(methods(for(accessing( and(analysing(research(used(for( decisionTmaking.((Results( disseminated(acJvely.( ( ( CollaboraJon/ParJcipaJon( in:( ( # SystemaJc(reviews( # Defining(priority(quesJons( ( ( Policy(focus(and(evidence:( science(relevance( ! ! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 22! From!Petrokofsky!!2011! Methodology(
- 23. 1. Question framing • Policy-relevance • Involves stakeholders • Define what is to be examined and how 2. Rigorous review methodology • Transparent • Repeatable 3. Engage wider community with findings: • policy makers • academics • stakeholders 3.!! AcJve! dissemina1on! of!results! 2.! SystemaJc! evalua1on! of!evidence! Framework(for(incorporaJng(evidence( 11/09/2013! 23! 1.! !PolicyT relevant! ques1on! Commitment(to( update( From!Petrokofsky!et!al.,!2010! ICRAF!Science!Week! Methodology(
- 25. Typical(systemaJc(review(group( • 6L8!(4!minimum)! • Lead!reviewer!(one!throughout,!or!consider!leads! at!different!stages)! • Con1nuous!admin!support! • Library/informa1on!resource!specialist! • Sta1s1cian!(if!metaLanalysis/sta1s1cal!analysis!is! planned)! • Subject!exper1se!(consider!language! implica1ons)! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 25! Methodology(
- 26. First(tranche(of(systemaJc(reviews( Topic( Review(team( Impacts(of(biofuel(crops(on(biodiversity( CIFOR( ETH(Zurich( CIRAD( Concepts(of(science(quality(&(research( evaluaJon( Royal(Roads(University(Canada( Role(of(land(use(change(dynamics(in(miombo( woodlands( Copperbelt(University(Zambia( Univ(Pretoria( CIFOR! ( Biodiversity(benefits(of(“alternaJve( livelihoods”(( CIFOR( IIED( Zoological(Society(of(London( Property(rights(and(the(environment( CIFOR( Univ(Michigan( Univ(Oxford( Ecosystems(sustaining(agriculture( CIFOR( Univ(Wageningen( Univ(Southampton( 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 26! Methodology(
- 27. Time(constraints(T(opJons( • 6L9!months!(depending!on!literature)! • Consider!evidence!mapping! – Robust! – ProtocolLdriven! – No!data!extrac1on!&!synthesis! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 27! Methodology(
- 30. Preliminary(Findings(( The(development(of(explicit(review(quesJons(–(sJll(being(refined( ! 1. Charcoal!CrisisL!!Higher!charcoal!demand!translated!into!higher! charcoal!prices?! 2. Complexity!of!interac1ons!L!Supply!is!stable/!responsive/! sustainable!to!higher!charcoal!demand?!! 3. Is!data!available!to!assess!the!sustainability!of!the!sector?!! A(preliminary(evaluaJon(of(the(exisJng(evidence(base(that(could( provide(scienJfic(underpinning(for(these(quesJons( Preliminary(Findings(
- 32. Kenya(case(–(2004(vs.(2013((Preliminary(Findings( • Popula1on!growth!and!urbaniza1on!rate!between!2004L2013:!2.7%;!4.1%!! • Charcoal!traded!increased!from!1.6m!t!in!2004!to!2.5m!t!in!2013:!5%/year! !!!!!!!!!2004→2013:!42kg(→(57kg/total!pop!capita/yr;!225kg(→(245kg/urban!pop!capita/yr!!! • Trade!values!increased!L32!bil!ksh!in!2004!to!135!bil!ksh!in!2013:!17.3%/year!! • Es1mated!charcoal!price!increase!=!17.3%L5%=12.3%/year! • Consumer!infla1on!on!average!8.8%/year! • Kerosene!prices!highly!fluctuatedL!+17%!in!2008!then!L14%!down!in!2009! • LPG!prices!steadily!increased!between!2006!and!2009:!6.3%/year! • Charcoal(prices(may(be(influenced(by(so(many(shortTlongTterm(factors…!
- 35. Data(constrains( Preliminary(Findings( to(esJmate(the(impacts(of(charcoal(demand(on(sustainability(of( supply,(most(case(studies/reviews(either(based(on(FAO(esJmates(( or(naJonal(surveys,(which(have(significant(inconsistencies( More(recent(reviews(( • Arnold((2006)(–!FAO!! • Zulu&(Richardson((2013)(–!socioLeconomic!study!reviews! • Mwampamba((2013)(–!synthesis!of!charcoal!studies,!esp.!policies!! • Chidumayo(&(Gumbo((2013)(–!FAO!&!FAO!FORESTAT!2005! Country(reports(( • TZNL!HH!budget!survey,!econ!modeling! • RwandaLVC!analysis,!spa1al!modeling! • MalawiL!survey!on!4!largest!ci1es!! • Kenya!–!survey!on!countries!purposely!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!selected! Reports(by(InternaJonal(OrganizaJons( • World(Bank((2011)(–!IEA,!extrapola1on!for!SSA!based!on!KEN/TZN/MAL!surveys! • GEF((2013)!–!FAO,!though!no1ng!that!actual!demand!could!be!4!1mes!larger! Case(studies(–(peerTreviewed(papers( • TZN/Mwampamba!L!244!HHs!survey! • Malawi/Zulu!–!na1onal!surveys&!policies! • MiomboTZambia/Kutsch!–!data!on!3!plots! • SSA/OpenshawL!FAO!!! ( Domain'1:! Deforestation'&'! charcoal'increase'along' with'urbanization! '! !! Domain'2:! Deforestation'&'! charcoal'decrease'along' with'urbanization! '! !! Domain'3:! Reforestation'&'! charcoal'increase'along' with'urbanization! '! !! Domain'4:! Reforestation'&'! charcoal'decrease'along'with' urbanization! '! !!Forest(area(change(2005T2010((%/year)(FAO( Charcoal(demand(elasJcity(to(urbanizaJon(2005T2010(%/%)(FAO(
- 36. DataT(Inconsistencies(with(naJonal(surveys( • FAOSTAT!wood!charcoal!vs.!es1mates!by!na1onal!surveys! Preliminary(Findings( Country( Source/year(of(survey/methods( Annual(charcoal( producJon(( FAOSTAT([%(to( naJonal(figure](( Kenya( ESDA(2005)/2004! Es1mates!based!on!survey!on!selected!coun1es!! 1.6!million!tons! !! 17,700!tons! [1.1%]! Kenya( KFS!(2013)/2013! Es1mates!based!on!survey!on!selected!coun1es!! 2.5!million!tons! !! 17,700!tons! (2011)! [0.7%]! Tanzania( World!Bank!(2009)/2007! household!budget!survey!&!modeling! 1!million!tons!! !! 1,041,000!tons!! [104%]! Rwanda( GTZ!(2009)/2008;!FAO!WISDOM!(2011)!!! Value!chain!survey,!spa1al!modeling! 150,000!tons!! !! 48,000!tons! [32%]! Malawi( Kambewa!et!al.!(2007)!*! /2007!! urban!energy!survey!on!4!major!ci1es! Openshaw(2010)!** !/review!of!various!surveys!! 256,863* !L297,151!**! tons! ! !! !! 456,600!tons! [154%L178%]! !! Kenya 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wood Charcoal (tonnes) 640,501 16,500 17,000 16,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700
- 37. • LowLkiln!efficiency!scenarios!translate!into!the!annual!deforesta1on!of! 96kL357kL625k!ha/year,!3!!L!10!!L18%!of!346k!ha!Kenya’s!forest!area,!even! larger!than!reported!deforesta1on!of!11k!ha/year!!! Data(T(Methodological(challenges( • Some!es1mates!on!required!biomass!supply!to!meet!demand!(Mwampamba! 2007!with!244!HHs!data!in!TZN;!Chidumayo!&!Gumbo!2013!with!FAO!data)! assumed!all!charcoal!coming!from!forests,!and!applied!the!formula! !! Preliminary(Findings( !"#!$%&#'!!(&#(!)##*#*!!%!+##!!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.! ("() =!"#!2%.3+#!%$!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.!(!)!/$%&#'!!'!%-5! *#)'6!7!(86%+(''!'!%-56)9!&(!#)!(!/"( ) www.treeaid.org.uk! G!Ndegwa,!Tsavo!East! Nkemte,!Ethiopia! • ex.!How(much(forest(area(needed(to(meet(the(demand(of(charcoal(consumed( in(Kenya(T(2.5m(t/year(or(6850(t/day((0.16kg[total]L0.67kg[urban]/capita/day)?!! !!!!!10%(kiln:(68500t/40(t/ha)=1712ha(((((10%(kiln(–(68500t/70(t/ha)=978ha((((10%(kiln(T68500t/260(t/ha)=263ha(( (((((((30%(kilnT((22605t/40(t/ha)(=565ha((((((30%(kiln(–(22605t/70(t/ha)=323ha((((30%(kiln(–(22605/260(t/ha)=87ha( ((((((((((( ((((((((((((((((( biomass(stock(=(40(t/ha( biomass(stock(=(70(t/ha( biomass(stock(=(260(t/ha( • This!method!is!prone!to!possible!errors!as!some!charcoal!demand!met!from! trees!on!farm!outside!forests!(degrada1on)!or!as!byLproduct!of!deforesta1on! due!to!agricultural!land!clearance.!!
- 39. FRA(2005( FRA(2010( Forest( Area( (ha)( Inconsistent!with!FAOSTAT! and!FRA!2010!for!some! countries! Consistent!with!FAOSTAT! Growing( stock( (m3/ha)( Report!on!2005!value,!and! changing!rates!for!1990L2005! to!allow!es1mates!on!1990! and!2000!values! Report!on!2010!value!only.!Calcula1on! change!between!2005!(FRA!2005!value)! and!2010!(FRA!2010!value)!!indicates! serious!discrepancies!between!two! FRAs.!! Biomass( stock((t/ ha)( Report!on!2005!value! Did!not!report!at!all,!need!to!!derive! from!carbon!stock!values! Carbon( stock((t/ ha)( Reported!only!on!2005!value! Reported!for!1990,!2000,!2005!and! 2010!values.!2005!value!differed!from! FRA!2005!and!FRA!2010.!! Changes!of!growing!stock!(m3,!%/year)!between!2005!(FRA2005)!and!2010!(FRA2010)! seemingly!has!some!serious!discrepancies.!Especially!for!some!countries,!against!the! decreasing!trends!of!forest!area!(ha)!and!carbon!stock!(t)!at!L0.5%!~!L1%/year,!!the! growing!stock!rate!increased!radically,!for!example!23%/year!(Indonesia)!~73%/year! (Cameroon),!…!! !20.00 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 growing'stock'(m3)'change'199062000' (%/year)'FRA'2005 growing-stock-(m3) change-1990!2000 (%/year)-FRA-2005 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 growing'stock'(m3)'change'200052005' (%/year)'FRA'2005 growing.stock.(m3) change.2000!2005 (%/year).FRA.2005 Botswana Cameroon E-Guinea Indonesia Kenya Mozambique 920.00 910.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 910.00 95.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 growing'stock'(m3)'change'200562010' (%/year)'FRA'200562010 growing-stock-(m3) change-200592010 (%/year)-FRA-200592010 !20.00 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 carbon'stock'(t)'change'199032000' (%/year)'FRA'2010 carbon-stock-(t)-change 1990!2000-(%/year)-FRA 2010 !20.00 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 carbon'stock'(t)'change'200022005' (%/year)'FRA'2010 carbon-stock-(t)-change 2000!2005-(%/year)-FRA 2010 !20.00 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 carbon'stock'(t)'change'200532010' (%/year)'FRA'2010 carbon-stock-(t)-change 2005!2010-(%/year)-FRA 2010 Data(–(Inconsistencies(in(reporJng( FAO(Forest(Resource(Assessment(2005/2010(not(consistent! Preliminary(Findings( Botswana Cameroon E-Guinea Indonesia Kenya Mozambique 920.00 910.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 910.00 95.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 growing'stock'(m3)'change'200562010' (%/year)'FRA'200562010 growing-stock-(m3) change-200592010 (%/year)-FRA-200592010 Forest(area(change(2005T2010((%/year)(FAO( Growing(stock((m3/ha)change(2005T2010/%)( FAO(
- 40. TentaJve(conclusion( • Do!not!ignore!charcoal!issues!for!sustainable!development!in!SSA.! Seeming!lack!of!crises!(physical!scarcity)!due!to!slow/inelas1c!price! responses!does!not!mean!there!is!no!sustainability!issues.!In!fact,!there! can!be!serious!dryland!forest!degrada1on!ongoing.!!!! ! • Need!a!systema1c!framework!to!examine!the!evidence! $ !!!!supply(management:!considera1on!of!physical!as!well!as! economic!scarci1es! $ !!!!demand(management:!understanding!percep1ons!on!coL benefits!of!energy!choice,!!beyond!financial/health!benefits!and! costs!of!energy!alterna1ves!! $ !!!!harmonizaJon(of(policies:!providing!clear!frameworks!for! stakeholders,!removing!distor1ons!so!as!to!increase!more!incen1ves! to!producers!!! !! • Need!to!acknowledge!the!data!limita1ons!and!methodologies,!try!to! iden1fy!op1mal!strategies!to!present!supplyLdemand!projec1ons!to! s1mulate!policy!debates!and!ac1ons!for!mainstreaming!sustainable! charcoal! Preliminary(Findings(
- 41. Thank(You!(((