From Red to Green: Enhancing Decision-Making with Traffic Light Assessment
Kanban: An Alternative Path to Agility
1. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Presenter
David J. Anderson
CEO, Lean Kanban Inc.
Agile Days
Moscow
March 2014
Release 1.1
Kanban
An Alternative Path to Agility
3. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
What Agile Methods Seek to Achieve
Let’s not bore you (yet again)
with a slide showing the
Agile Manifesto!
Agile methods ask us to…
Make Progress with
imperfect information
Reworking & course correcting as
new information arrives is better
risk management & faster than
delaying for “perfect”
information
Enable a high trust culture
The trust dividend eliminates
bureaucracy & encourages
collaborative working & use of tacit
knowledge
Treat work-in-progress
as if it were a liability
rather than an asset
Knowledge work is perishable.
Focus on finishing things quickly
before they go stale
Create Feedback Loops &
enable a capability to adapt
With 1st gen Agile methods this was
limited to adapting to changing
requirements or scope
Create a craftsmanship
work ethic
Encourage high quality, well
engineered code that is easily
adapted (refactored) as new
information arrives and requires
very little rework due to errors
4. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
The Kanban Method –
an alternative path to agility!
5. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
The Old Model (18th-20th Century)
Managers
Process
Workers
Process
Coaches
Designs
Or
DefinesImposes
Follow
Assign
Workers
To Tasks
Managers & Workers
– 2 different classes
Manager as “dating
agent” Model
6. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
The New Model (21st Century)
Managers
ProcessWorkers Process
Coaches
Facilitate
learning
Control
&
Evolve
Policies
All Knowledge
Workers make
management
decisions
Pay grade relates,
decision making, risk
& authority to
override or change
process policies
7. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
True Management Training
Very few knowledge
workers are given
proper management
training.
They don’t know
what business they
are in!
8. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
What Service Do You Provide?
1. Who are your customers?
(or other stakeholders you must serve such as a regulatory authority)
2. What do they ask you for?
3. What is the nature of the demand?
(arrival rate and pattern of arrival)
4. What risks are associated with those requests?
5. What do you do to those requests?
6. Where does the finished work go?
9. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Scaling Kanban in the Enterprise is about
Scaling Effective Management
The Kanban Method is not…
A project management or software
development lifecycle process
Nor, does it encourage a process-centric
approach to improvement!
It’s a service-oriented approach to
management & organization
10. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Kanban Method
Uses large boards to visualize invisible work
and virtual signal card systems
Creates an adaptive capability in your
organization
Enables adaptability in your business
processes to respond successfully to changes
in your business environment
11. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Kanban Method
• “Kanbanize” your existing process
• Provoke existing processes to change and
service delivery to improve
• Each workflow will evolve a uniquely tailored
process solution, “fitter” for its context
• Customer & employee satisfaction will improve
12. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Kanban has two meanings
• Kanban has two meanings in Japanese. Both meanings are
incorporated into the Kanban Method
• Kanban written in Kanji (Chinese characters)
看板 means “sign” or “large visual board”
• Kanban written in Japanese alphabet, hiragana,
かんばん means signal cards(s)
• In Chinese, only the 看板 version exists. Hence, in Chinese,
kanban can only mean “sign board” but the method was
actually inspired by the signal cards system used in Japan.
13. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Kanban’s Generalized Practices
6 Practices Enable Adaptive Capability
Visualize (with a kanban board (看板))
Limit Work-in-progress (with kanban (かんばん))
Manage Flow
Make Policies Explicit
Implement Feedback Loops
Improve Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally
(using models & the scientific method)
15. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
A Kanban Systems consists of
“kanban” (かんばん) signal cards in
circulation
17. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
F
F
O
M
N
K
J
I
Pull
Kanban systems are pull systems
Ideas
D
I
Dev
Ready
G
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 3
Test
Ready
5
F
B
CPull
Pull
*
There is capacity here
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
Pulling work from
development will create
capacity here too –
the pull signals move
upstream!
Now we have capacity
to replenish our ready
buffer
18. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
F
F
FF
F
F J
I
Pull
Kanban are virtual!
Ideas
D
I
Engin-
eering
Ready
G
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 3
Test
Ready
5
F
B
CPull
Pull
These are the virtual kanban
*
These are the virtual kanbanThese are the virtual kanbanThese are the virtual kanban
The board is a visualization of the
workflow process, the work-in-progress
and the kanban system
Boards are not required to do Kanban!
The first system used database triggers
to signal pull. There was no board!
UAT
Deploy-
ment
Ready
∞ ∞
19. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
F
F
O
M
N
K
J
I
Kanban can be physical
Ideas
D
I
Dev
Ready
G
Development Testing
Test
Ready
F B
C
UAT
Release
Ready
In-progress
Legend
Done
Blocked - issue
Blocked - defect
Physical token such as a
magnet is a kanban
Colors are used to
denote state
Moving done items
down below a line is an
optional enhancement
seen in some
implementations
Override on kanban
limit introduces
additional “blocked –
issue” kanban
20. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Commitment is deferred
E
I
D
Commitment point
F
F
FF
F
F F
Pull
Wish to avoid aborting after commitment
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 3
Test
Ready
5
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
We are committing to getting
started. We are certain we want
to take delivery.
Ideas remain optional and
(ideally) unprioritized
G
21. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Discard rates are often high
E
I
D
F
F
F F
G
I
Reject
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 3
Test
Ready
5
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
Discarded
The discard rate with Microsoft in
2004 was 48%. ~50% is
commonly observed
Options have value because the
future is uncertain
0% discard rate implies there is no
uncertainty about the future
22. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Upstream Kanban Prepares Options
Ready
for
Engin-
eering
F
I
Comm-
itted
D
4 Ongoing
Development
Done
3
J
K
12
Testing
Verification
3
L
Commitment point
4 -
Requi-
rements
Analysis
2412 -
Biz
Case
Dev
4824 -
Pool
of
Ideas
∞
Min & Max limits
insure sufficient
options are always
available
Committed WorkOptions
Discarded
O
Reject
P Q
$$$ cost of acquiring options
23. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Test
Ready
F
F
FF
F
F F
Replenishment Frequency
E
I
G
D
Replenishment
Discarded
I
Pull
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
The frequency of system
replenishment should reflect
arrival rate of new information
and the transaction &
coordination costs of holding a
meeting
Frequent replenishment is
more agile.
On-demand replenishment is
most agile!
24. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Test
Ready
F
F
FF
F
F F
Delivery Frequency
E
I
G
D
Delivery
Discarded
I
Pull
The frequency of delivery should
reflect the transaction &
coordination costs of
deployment plus costs &
tolerance of customer to take
delivery
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
UAT and Release buffer sizes can
reduce as frequency of delivery
increases
Frequent deployment is more
agile.
On-demand deployment is
most agile!
25. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Test
Ready
F
F
FF
F
F F
Specific delivery commitment may be deferred
even later
E
I
G
D
2nd
Commitment
point*
Discarded
I
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
We are now committing to a
specific release date
*This may happen earlier if
circumstances demand it
26. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Test
Ready
F
F
FF
F
F F
Defining Kanban System Lead Time
E
I
G
D
Pull
System Lead Time
Discarded
I
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
The clock starts ticking when we
accept the customers order, not
when it is placed!
Until then customer orders are
merely available options
Kanban
system lead
time ends
when the
item reaches
the first ∞
queue
27. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Avg. Lead Time
Avg. Delivery RateWIP
Pool
of
Ideas
Ready
To
Deploy
Little’s Law & Cumulative Flow
Delivery Rate
(from the kanban system)
System Lead Time
WIP
=
28. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
F
F
FF
F
F F
Defining Customer Lead Time
UAT
E
I
Dev
Ready
Delivery
Ready
G
D
5
∞
Pull
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 3
Test
Ready
5 ∞
Customer Lead Time
The clock still starts ticking
when we accept the customers
order, not when it is placed!
Abandoned
J
Pool
of
Ideas
Done
∞
Frequency of batch transfers
needs to be calculated and
added to kanban system lead
time to calculate customer lead
time
Frequency of batch transfers
needs to be calculated and
added to kanban system lead
time to calculate customer lead
time
29. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Test
Ready
Flow Efficiency
F
E
I
G
D
GY
PB
DE MN
P1
AB
Customer Lead Time
Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking
* Zsolt Fabok, Lean Agile Scotland, Sep 2012, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012
** Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
Flow efficiency measures the
percentage of total lead time is
spent actually adding value (or
knowledge) versus waiting
Flow efficiency % = Work Time x 100%
Lead Time
Flow efficiencies of 1-5% are
commonly reported. *, **
> 40% is good! Multitasking means time spent
in working columns is often
waiting time
Working WaitingWorking
30. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Observe Lead Time Distribution as an enabler
of a Probabilistic Approach to Management
Lead Time Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99
106
113
120
127
134
141
148
Days
CRs&Bugs
SLA expectation of
44 days with 85% on-time
Mean of 31
days
SLA expectation of
105 days with 98 % on-time
This is multi-modal data!
The work is of two types:
Change Requests (new features);
and Production Defects
This is multi-modal data!
The work is of two types:
Change Requests (new features);
and Production Defects
31. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Filter Lead Time data by Type of Work (and
Class of Service) to get Single Mode Distributions
85% at
10 days
Mean
5 days
98% at
25 days
ChangeRequests
ProductionDefects
85% at
60 days
Mean
50 days
98% at
150 days
32. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Metrics for Kanban Systems
Cumulative flow integrates demand,
WIP, approx. avg. lead time and delivery
rate capabilities
Lead time histograms show us actual
lead time capability
Flow efficiency, value versus failure
demand (rework), initial quality, and
impact of blocking issues are also useful
33. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Kanban Improves Agility
• Lead times gradually reduce
• Predictability of delivery gradually improves
• Organizational social capital improves
• Governance, risk management are improved
• Empowerment without loss of control
• Improves are often dramatic!
• 700% increase in delivery rate at BBC
• On-time delivery often greater than 90%
• Delivery times often reduced by up to 90%
34. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Kanban Coming to Russia…
Moscow September 24-25
Venue to be announced. Watch…
http://conf.leankanban.com
http://conf.leankanban.ru/
35. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Learn More
http://www.limitedwipsociety.org
http://edu.leankanban.com
@leankanbanu
37. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Upcoming Training in Europe
Leading Change & Managing Risk Masterclasses
Stockholm March 24-28
http://djaa.com/kcpm-022014b
Vienna March 31 – April 4
http://www.djaa.com/kcpm-05201401
Berlin May 19-23
http://www.djaa.com/kcpm-05201401
38. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
About
David Anderson is a thought
leader in managing effective
software teams. He leads a
training, consulting, publishing
and event planning business
dedicated to developing,
promoting and implementing
sustainable evolutionary…
He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry
starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has
led software teams delivering superior productivity and
quality using innovative agile methods at large companies
such as Sprint and Motorola.
David is the pioneer of the Kanban Method an agile and
evolutionary approach to change. His latest book, published in
June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road
to Kanban.
David leads Lean Kanban Inc., a global management training,
events & publishing business dedicated to offering high
quality, innovative, modern management training for the
creative knowledge worker industries of the 21st Century.
39. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Agile Days Moscow 2014, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Acknowledgements
Hakan Forss of Avega Group in Stockholm has been instrumental in
defining the Kanban Kata and evangelizing its importance as part of a
Kaizen culture.
Real options & the optimal exercise point as an improvement over
“last responsible moment” emerged from discussions with Chris Matts,
Olav Maassen and Julian Everett around 2009.
The inherent need for evolutionary capability that enables
organizational adaptation was inspired by the work of Dave Snowden.