7. Key Findings Highly unlikely there will be a comprehensive Palestinian-Israeli peace deal in the next three years due primarily to: Hamas’s inability to be an accountable political entity West’s view of Hamas Israel’s reluctance on settlements 4
8. Hamas’s inability to be an accountable political entity Operation Cast Lead Hamas failure to sign reconciliation treaty 5 Post Operation Cast Lead Gaza January 2009
9. West’s view of Hamas as a terrorist organization Israel’s refusal to recognize Hamas Hamas stated Israel should not be trusted Hamas called for renewing bombing attacks 6 Hamas militant groups often fire rockets into Israel
10. Israel’s reluctance to negotiate on settlements with Fatah Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to freeze settlements Palestinian Authority President MahmoudAbbas refuses to negotiate without settlement freeze 7 Palestinian Authority President MahmoudAbbas
12. Recent Developments Hamas rejects Egyptian reconciliation Abbas proposes elections Abbas threatens to not run Central Election Committee calls off elections Fatah proposes independence at UN 9 Palestinian elections have been delayed by the Central Election Committee
13. Negotiations and Compromises 1967 borders Settlements in Jerusalem and West Bank East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital 10 Original 1967 borders
14. Palestinian Reconciliation Hamas’s political popularity Negotiated permanent party status or percentage of parliamentary seats guaranteed 11 Hamas and Fatah popularity levels of 2008 and 2009
15. Leverage Point for Israel over Fatah Highly likely best interest to keep Fatah and Hamas separate Settlements Roadblocks and checkpoints 12 Israeli checkpoint influences West Bank economy
16. Leverage Points for Israel over Hamas Israel’s economic blockade on the Gaza Strip Likely the loss of funds from tunnels makes Hamas’s administration look incompetent 13 Smuggling tunnels are primary economic source for Gaza
17. Leverage Points of Hamas over Israel Tunnel system International community Terrorist operations 14 Hamas’s actions affect international opinion
18. Threats from Hamas to Hamas Gazan reconstruction under Hamas control Right wing militant organizations 15 Islamic militant groups pose a threat to Gazan control
19. Leverage Points for Hamas over Fatah Hamas can bash Abbas individually, but not Fatah Opportunity increase appeal 16 Abbas’s popularity is declining
20. Leverage Points for Fatah over Hamas A Palestinian reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah 17 Reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah is highly unlikely
21. Leverage points for Fatah over Israel U.S. training of Palestinian soldiers Fatah can bring international pressure on Israel 18 U.S. trained Palestinian soldiers
24. Additional Opportunities It is likely in Israel, Hamas and Fatah's self interests to implement a three state solution: Exchange Gazanterritory for control of Jerusalem Israel and Fatah already are moving in this direction by excluding Hamas 21
25. Thank You Questions? 22 Geopolitical Relevant Countries: Chelsea Buckley cbuckl47@mercyhurst.edu Team Hamas: Amanda Ehrbar aehrba18@mercyhurst.edu Emily Galuszka egalus89@mercyhurst.edu Team Fatah: Chris Meacham cmeach77@mercyhurst.edu John Rodgers jrodge31@mercyhurst.edu Team Israel: Brian Oates boates60@mercyhurst.edu Lindsey Helfrey Lindsey.helfrey@gmail.com
Notas do Editor
Get to answering your question in a minute, but first we would like to explain our methodology. Change colors of arrows.
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Source of image: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
![Requirement What are the prospects for a Palestinian-Israeli comprehensive peace deal in the next three years? ,[object Object]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)