Take a look at this week’s Chart Book from Accuvest Global Advisors with updates on the following:
Global Financial Conditions
Global Equity Markets
Interest Rates and Fixed Income
The Economy
Major Currencies
Commodities
Investor Sentiment
Accuvest Global Advisors is a California based RIA and sub-advisor of the AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Opportunities ETF (ACCU) and the AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Long Short ETF (AGLS).
2. Accuvest Weekly Update
Global Financial Conditions
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Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress decreased this week, and remain at levels conducive to risk taking
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The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 15.72, down from 21.34 mid-week and 16.76 last week
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This week – Equities rallied, while Gold, Silver, Oil, and the Yen struggled
Interest Rates and Fixed Income
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10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.68%, up from 2.64% last week
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10 year US Treasury Yields are forecasted to be 2.82% at the end of Q4 2013, down from a forecast of 2.85% last week
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Investment Grade Bonds rallied 0.2% this week, but remain below medium term resistance
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High Yield Bonds rallied 0.4% this week, touching overbought levels and holding upward sloping 50 and 200 day moving averages
Global Equity Markets
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The MSCI All Country World Index rallied 0.9% this week, bouncing off of support at the 50DMA
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The S&P 500 rallied 0.8% this week, but has underperform the ACWI, EAFE, and EM Indices over the last 3 months
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The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 1.7% this week, following a rally of 2.0% last week
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Earnings Growth has been flat to negative for the MSCI EAFE and MSCI EM Indices
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Earnings Growth and Multiple Expansion has driven the advance in U.S. equity markets since Q4 2011.
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Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary are the best performing Global Sectors year-to-date
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Basic Materials and Utilities are the worst performing Global Sectors year-to-date
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3. Accuvest Weekly Update
The Economy
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Housing/Real Estate and Labor Market continue to highlight the US Economy
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Positive Economic Surprises Include: ISM Manufacturing (56.2), Chicago PMI (55.7), and Philly Fed (22.3)
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Negative Economic Surprises Include: Jobless Claims (374K), ISM Non-Mfg (54.4), and Total Vehicle Sales (15.2M)
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Next week’s U.S. Economic Calendar includes Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Leading Index, CPI, and Retail Sales
Major Currencies
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The Won, Pound, Euro, Krone, and Franc have appreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months
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The Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee, Aussie Dollar, and S.A. Rand have depreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months
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The Mexican Peso (+2.1%) and Chinese Renminbi (+0.5%) are forecasted to appreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of Q1 2014
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The Brazilian Real (-6.4%) and Aussie Dollar (-6.0%) are forecasted to depreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of Q1 2014
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MXN/USD @ 12.99, strengthening from 13.08 last week
Commodities
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Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a 5 year down trend
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Gold @ $1272/oz., down from $1310/oz. last week and making 3 month lows. Support at 1240 and 1200.
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Crude Oil @ $102.02/barrel, down from $103.84/barrel last week and recent highs of $110.53 on Sept 6th
disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly
informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with
respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to
arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced
from Bloomberg.
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