Alleghany ashe wilkes pathways to prosperity LMI Data
1. Data for
Career Pathway Development:
Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties
Pathways to Prosperity Employer Roundtable Meeting
January 28, 2014
nc
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
2. Career Pathway Goals
1. Jobs and career opportunities
2. Seamless transition to higher ed
3. Talent pipeline for area businesses
2
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
3. Many young North Carolinians can’t find jobs
Unemployment Rate
All ages
9.2%
16-19
20-24
25.4%
16.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
(Annual Average Unemployment Rates, 2012)
3
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
4. Meanwhile, a skills gap?
“Skills Gap: Where Are the Qualified
Workers?”
--Wilkes Journal-Patriot, 12/3/12
“Can We Fix the Skills Gap?”
– Forbes, 8/2/13
“Building a Country That Builds Things:
The manufacturing industry faces a
serious skills gap”
–U.S. News and World Report, 10/4/13
“Is There Really a Skills Gap?”
--U.S. News and World Report, 6/19/13
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
“Stubborn Skills Gap in America’s
Workforce” – NYTimes.com, 10/8/13
NC Department of Commerce
4
5. Questions
1. What are the largest and fastest-growing
industries and occupations in the area?
2. At certain education/experience levels, which area
occupations have been growing and pay well?
3. What other considerations are important for
career pathway programming?
5
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
6. Reviewing the Area’s Industries (1)
North American Industry Classification System
(NAICS)
• XX - Industry Sector (20 broad sectors)
• XXX - Industry Sub sector
• XXXX - Industry Group
…
6
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
7. Jobs by Industry Sector, 2013
7
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
8. County Differences – Industry Emp. Share
Alleghany
Ashe
Wilkes
1 – Healthcare &
Social Assistance
(20%)
1 – Manufacturing 1 – Manufacturing
(16%)
(20%)
2 – Government
(19%)
1 – Government
(16%)
1- Government
(20%)
3 – Manufacturing 1 – Healthcare &
(14%)
Social Assistance
(16%)
3 – Retail (13%)
4 – Agriculture,
4 – Retail – 15%
Forestry, Fishing &
Hunting (9%)
4 – Management
of Companies &
Enterprises (10%)
8
Source: EMSI, 2013 2-digit industry employment
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
9. Employment Change, Industry Sectors
Industry Sector Employment Change:
Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties, 2003-13
Government
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Accommodation and Food Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Health Care and Social Assistance
Educational Services (Private)
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and …
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Finance and Insurance
Information
Transportation and Warehousing
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Utilities
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
(3,000)
9
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
0
500
1,000
10. Employment Change - %
Industry Sector Employment Change (%):
Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties, 2003-13
Government
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Accommodation and Food Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Health Care and Social Assistance
Educational Services (Private)
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and …
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Finance and Insurance
Information
Transportation and Warehousing
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Utilities
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
(100%)
10
(50%)
0%
50%
100%
150%
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
200%
250%
300%
11. Industry Sector Trends
Employment Trends (2003-13):
Large Industry Sectors, Alleghany, Ashe, and Wilkes Counties
9,000
Construction
8,000
Manufacturing
7,000
Wholesale Trade
6,000
Retail Trade
Jobs
5,000
4,000
Management of Companies and
Enterprises
3,000
Administrative and Support and Waste
Management and Remediation Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
2,000
Accommodation and Food Services
1,000
Government
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
11
12. Reviewing the Area’s Industries (2)
North American Industry Classification System
(NAICS)
• XX - Industry Sector (20 broad sectors)
• XXX - Industry Sub sector
• XXXX - Industry Group
…
12
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
13. Top-10 Employing Subsectors, 2013
Industry Subsector
2003
Jobs
2013
Jobs
Change
% Change
2013 Avg.
Earnings/
Job
Local Government
4,769
4,440
(329)
(7%)
$41,854
Food Manufacturing
3,020
2,626
(394)
(13%)
$32,446
2,251
2,356
105
5%
$14,099
3,186
2,256
(930)
(29%)
$60,893
1,018
1,358
340
33%
$44,246
1,290
1,178
(112)
(9%)
$45,076
861
921
60
7%
$22,633
1,052
830
(222)
(21%)
$27,517
Social Assistance
537
815
278
52%
$24,384
Wood Product Manufacturing
874
796
(78)
(9%)
$49,192
Food Services and Drinking
Places
Management of Companies
and Enterprises
Ambulatory Health Care
Services
State Government
General Merchandise Stores
Nursing and Residential Care
Facilities
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
13
14. Subsector Trends, 2003-13
Employment Trends for the 10 Largest Subsectors as of 2013:
Alleghany, Ashe and Wilkes Counties
Local Government
6,000
Food Manufacturing
5,000
Food Services and Drinking Places
Management of Companies and
Enterprises
Ambulatory Health Care Services
4,000
3,000
State Government
General Merchandise Stores
2,000
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
1,000
Social Assistance
Wood Product Manufacturing
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
14
15. Subsectors with Greatest Growth 2003-13
Industry Subsector
(-Minimum of 100 jobs in 2013)
Chemical Manufacturing
2003
Jobs
2013
Jobs
Change
% Change
2013 Avg.
Earnings/
Job
18
115
97
539%
$78,667
45
162
117
260%
$22,313
59
135
76
129%
$46,985
93
187
94
101%
$24,894
Crop Production
261
483
222
85%
$28,492
Transportation Equipment
Manufacturing
324
497
173
53%
$54,488
Social Assistance
537
815
278
52%
$24,384
168
242
74
44%
$36,271
1,018
1,358
340
33%
$44,246
183
243
60
33%
$39,952
Educational Services
(Private)
Nonmetallic Mineral Product
Manufacturing
Real Estate
Plastics and Rubber Products
Manufacturing
Ambulatory Health Care
Services
Heavy and Civil Engineering
Construction
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
15
16. Top 10-employing Sectors, Filtered by
Stable/Growing Jobs and Avg. $/Job > $20k
Industry
2003
Jobs
Ambulatory Health Care
Services
2013
Jobs
Change %
Change
2013 Avg.
Earnings/ Job
1,018
1,358
340
33%
$44,246
General Merchandise Stores
861
921
60
7%
$22,633
Social Assistance
537
815
278
52%
$24,384
608
731
123
20%
$27,885
611
728
117
19%
$32,495
679
716
37
5%
$57,911
Hospitals (Private)
486
596
110
23%
$42,244
Transportation Equipment
Manufacturing
324
497
173
53%
$54,488
Crop Production
261
483
222
85%
$28,492
Textile Mills
253
282
29
11%
$32,031
Administrative and Support
Services
Building Material and Garden
Equipment and Supplies
Dealers
Merchant Wholesalers,
Durable Goods
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
16
21. Employment in Major Occupational Groups
Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties, 2013
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
Protective Service Occupations
Personal Care and Service Occupations
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance…
Business and Financial Operations Occupations
Construction and Extraction Occupations
Management Occupations
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical…
Education, Training, and Library Occupations
Food Preparation and Serving Related…
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
Sales and Related Occupations
Production Occupations
21
Office and Administrative Support Occupations
0
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
22. Occupational Groups with > 100 Annual Openings
Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties
Major Occupation
Group
Production Occupations
Sales and Related
Occupations
Office and
Administrative Support
Occupations
Food Preparation and
Serving Related
Occupations
Transportation and
Material Moving
Occupations
Construction and
Extraction Occupations
Healthcare Support
Occupations
2013 Jobs
Average Annual
Openings
Median Hourly
Earnings
3,769
219
$13.30
3,281
200
$12.76
4,679
178
$14.56
2,854
152
$8.89
2,934
143
$13.26
1,100
104
$14.96
1,439
102
$10.55
22
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
23. Top 10 Occupations Requiring On-the-Job Training:
Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties
Occupation
Landscaping and
Groundskeeping Workers
Police and Sheriff's Patrol
Officers
Social and Human Service
Assistants
2013
Jobs
%
Median
Change Hourly
2003-13 Earnings
Education Level
216
23%
$10.28
Short-term on-the-job training
115
6%
$15.52
Moderate-term on-the-job training
91
6%
$12.49
Short-term on-the-job training
Insurance Sales Agents
89
14%
$20.18
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Pharmacy Technicians
89
11%
$12.26
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Highway Maintenance Workers
71
3%
$14.72
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Medical Secretaries
Extruding, Forming, Pressing,
and Compacting Machine
Setters, Operators, and Tenders
Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and
Aquacultural Animals
Refuse and Recyclable Material
Collectors
58
9%
$13.52
Moderate-term on-the-job training
42
24%
$11.90
Moderate-term on-the-job training
42
50%
$11.86
Short-term on-the-job training
41
8%
$10.06
Short-term on-the-job training
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
23
24. Top 10 Occupations Requiring Post-secondary Educ.
Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties
Occupation
2013
Jobs
%
Median
Change Hourly
2003-13 Earnings
Education Level
Nursing Assistants
Automotive Service Technicians
and Mechanics
Licensed Practical and Licensed
Vocational Nurses
Emergency Medical Technicians
and Paramedics
Heating, Air Conditioning, and
Refrigeration Mechanics and
Installers
366
-16%
$10.57
Postsecondary non-degree award
224
-20%
$13.45
Postsecondary non-degree award
130
-16%
$19.19
Postsecondary non-degree award
95
27%
$17.45
Postsecondary non-degree award
87
-20%
$16.78
Postsecondary non-degree award
Dental Assistants
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and
Brazers
Bus and Truck Mechanics and
Diesel Engine Specialists
67
43%
$16.34
Postsecondary non-degree award
61
-24%
$15.44
Postsecondary non-degree award
61
-9%
$16.94
Postsecondary non-degree award
Firefighters
Telecommunications Equipment
Installers and Repairers, Except
Line Installers
52
8%
$10.24
Postsecondary non-degree award
43
-17%
$27.71
Postsecondary non-degree award
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
24
25. Top 10 Occupations Requiring Associate’s Degree
Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties
Occupation
2013
Jobs
%
Median
Change Hourly
2003-13 Earnings
Education Level
Registered Nurses
Preschool Teachers, Except
Special Education
521
0%
$26.91
Associate's degree
120
19%
$9.37
Associate's degree
Dental Hygienists
Computer User Support
Specialists
68
55%
$28.22
Associate's degree
67
-27%
$21.96
Associate's degree
Paralegals and Legal Assistants
63
2%
$15.24
Associate's degree
Radiologic Technologists
53
10%
$24.45
Associate's degree
Respiratory Therapists
Medical and Clinical Laboratory
Technicians
27
0%
$23.72
Associate's degree
26
13%
$18.55
Associate's degree
Physical Therapist Assistants
Appraisers and Assessors of Real
Estate
26
4%
$24.24
Associate's degree
25
9%
$18.11
Associate's degree
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
25
26. Large and Growing Occupations Requiring
Associate’s Degree or Training Credentials
26
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
27. Where Alleghany Works
2011
Count
Share
1,414
44.6%
Surry County
197
6.2%
Ashe County
176
5.5%
Wilkes County
173
5.5%
Forsyth County
166
5.2%
Mecklenburg County
130
4.1%
Iredell County
All Other Locations (incl.
102
3.2%
814
25.7%
Alleghany County
Galax & Grayson Co., VA)
28
Source: Census Bureau, LED, On The Map
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
28. Where Ashe Works
2011
Count
Share
Ashe County
4,105
46.3%
Watauga County
1,226
13.8%
Wilkes County
412
4.7%
Buncombe County
373
4.2%
Mecklenburg County
254
2.9%
Henderson County
202
2.3%
Catawba County
180
2.0%
Burke County
All Other Counties
153
1.7%
1,955
22.1%
(NC; 3.6% in TN or VA; …)
Source: Census Bureau, LED, On The Map
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
29
29. Where Wilkes Works
2011
Count
Share
Wilkes County
11,595
45.6%
Wake County
1,576
6.2%
Surry County
1,508
5.9%
Forsyth County
1,390
5.5%
Iredell County
1,049
4.1%
Yadkin County
915
3.6%
Mecklenburg County
797
3.1%
Guilford County
All Other Locations
654
2.6%
5,917
23.3%
(NC; < 1% ea. VA, GA…)
Source: Census Bureau, LED, On The Map
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
30
30. The Primary Commuting Region
31
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
31. Jobs by Industry Sector:
6-County Commuting Region
32
Source: EMSI
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
32. Industry Sector Trends
6-County Commuting Region
Employment Trends (2003-13):
Large Industry Sectors, 6-County Commuting Region
50,000
Construction
45,000
Manufacturing
40,000
Retail Trade
35,000
Finance and Insurance
Jobs
30,000
25,000
Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services
20,000
Administrative and Support and Waste
Management and Remediation Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
15,000
Accommodation and Food Services
10,000
Other Services (except Public
Administration)
5,000
Government
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
33
33. Employment in Major Occupational Groups
6-County Commuting Region
Military occupations
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations
Architecture and Engineering Occupations
Legal Occupations
Community and Social Service Occupations
Computer and Mathematical Occupations
Protective Service Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations
Personal Care and Service Occupations
Construction and Extraction Occupations
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations
Business and Financial Operations Occupations
Education, Training, and Library Occupations
Production Occupations
Management Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations
Sales and Related Occupations
Office and Administrative Support Occupations
34
0
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
NC Department of Commerce
34. Occupations Highly Accessible to Young Adults
Higher than Average % of Employment < 25
Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors
Hairdressers, Hairstylists and Cosmotologists
Veterinary Technicians
Nursing Assistants
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education
Dental Assistants
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics
Source: EMSI (Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes, Forsyth, Surry & Watauga Counties)
35
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
35. Opportunities As Older Workers Retire?
Higher than Average % of Employment 55+
Morticians, Undertakers, Funeral Directors
Real Estate Sales Agents
Legal Secretaries
Medical Records and Health Information
Technicians
Registered Nurses
Licensed Practical Nurses
Bus and Truck Mechanics
Source: EMSI (Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes, Forsyth, Surry & Watauga Counties)
36
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
36. Biz/admin/jack-of-all-trades skills needed?
• Business establishments with < 10 employees are dominant in
the High Country WDB area
% with 0-9 Employees, by Industry
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW), 2nd Qtr. 2013
Some industries are omitted due to data suppression
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
37
37. Vetting the Data
How well do the data reflect your
experiences?
What other trends or issues do you see?
Anticipated hiring
Opportunities, threats
Skill or credential “gaps”?
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
38
38. Beyond the Data
Career ladders and lattices
Job stability (e.g., cyclical industries)
Student demand
Employer engagement
39
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
39. Some Tools
Commerce/Labor & Economic Analysis:
www.nccommerce.com/lead
AccessNC (business, community data)
Demand driven data delivery (D4) - labor force stats
Wage data by occupation (U.S., state, sub-state):
http://www.careeronestop.org/SalariesBenefits/
NC Works Online: www.ncworks.gov
Career ladder/lattice tools (O*NET):
http://www.onetcenter.org/ladders.html
40
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
40. QUESTIONS?
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:
Anne Bacon
Senior Workforce Analyst
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
anne.bacon@nccommerce.com
(919)707-1579
(919)707-1500 (main)
Labor & Economic Analysis Division
NC Department of Commerce
Notas do Editor
Corresponding labor force participation rates for these groups were 62.7% (all ages), 36.7% for 16-19 year olds and 70.3% for 20-24 year olds.In October 2011, Business Insider wrote an article on youth unemployment which profiled states with the worst problems with it in the nation. It said that the SE had especially high youth unemployment rates, with NC coming in at that time as the 9th worst in the nation.
Government and Manufacturing tied for largest share of employment at 19% eachRetail: 13%Health care and social assistance: 11%Accommodation and Food Service: 8%Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises: 7%Most other specific industries with at least 2% of employment are also labeled. (Slice between Accommodation & Food Services and Government is 2%, Other Services.
Hcare & soc. Asst. #5 for Wilkes Co.
1
1
1
Beyond these, employment growth drops down to 25%
Textile mills is not among the top 25 industries in employment; only makes it on the list after filtering out declining, low-pay industries
Textile mills is not among the top 25 industries in employment; only makes it on the list after filtering out declining, low-pay industries
1
1
1
Shows occupational groups with at least 500 employees in the 3-county area.Not shown:Community and Social Service Occupations459Computer and Mathematical Occupations288Architecture and Engineering Occupations201Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations190Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations122Legal Occupations121Military occupations0Unclassified Occupation0
Shows occupational groups with > 100 average annual openings, 2003-13.
“Top” determined by 2013 employment.
“Top” determined by employment.
“Top” determined by employment.
15 largest occupations for these two required educational levels as of 2013.
6.3% of workers who live in Alleghany Co commute to VA*****************************************************Jobs Counts by States Where Workers are Employed - Primary Jobs 2011 CountShareAll States3,172100.0% North Carolina2,957 -93.2% Virginia200- 6.3% South Carolina7 -0.2% Tennessee5- 0.2% Georgia2- 0.1% Kentucky1- 0.0%All Other Locations0-0.0%
2.3% are employed in TN, 1.3% in VA; trace %s in SC, GA, KY
.9% work in VA (221), .6% work in GA (160), .3% work in SC and .3% work in TN
Do patterns look the same in the larger region, where residents of the 3 counties commute? Looking at additional counties that represent where at least 5% of each county’s residents commute to, we see a larger region that encompasses the 3 original counties plus Watauga, Forsyth and Surry Counties.
Do patterns look the same in the larger region, where residents of the 3 counties commute? Looking at additional counties that represent original 3 counties plus where at least 5% of each county’s residents commute to, we see the following major differences in industry sectors:Healthcare and Social assistance the largest industry sector and a larger share of jobs than in 3-county area (14% as opposed to 11% in 3-county area).Much lower share of manufacturing; 8% in larger area, compared to 19% for 3-county area. (‘Tho numbers are still big.)Government a smaller share, at 11% as opposed to 19%Admin and Waste Mgmt. and Remediation Services bigger in larger commuting area – 7% vs. 2% in 3-county area.Mgmt. of Cos and enterprises smaller in commuting region – 3% (7% in 3-county area)Not as different:Retail not much different as a share – 11% as opposed to 13% in 3-county areaConstruction roughly the same (had been 4% in 3-county area)Accommodation and Food Svcs exactly the same at 8%Note that industries representing at least 3% of employment are labeled; those with at least 5% of employment have their share shown. Smaller industries slices are not labeled but these are in order or NAICS industry classification, starting at “12:00” and going around clockwise.
Do industry employment trends look the same in the larger region, where residents of the 3 counties commute? There are some differences.
Occupational employment in larger region
11-22% of jobs in these occupations are held by young adults 19-25 (occupation average around 7%)
Occupational employment in larger region
There are other tools to get occupational wage data – contact LEAD if you have questions or need slightly different information than provided via Career One Stop.