The dynamics of cohesive and inconsistent project requirements and how they influence project success

The Dynamics of Cohesive and Inconsistent Project
Requirements and how they influence Project Success
1Copyright (c) 2011-2015 Pragmatic Cohesion
Consulting; All Rights Reserved
Does your project have the needed Escape Velocity to succeed?

Introduction
• Peter M. Senge in his best selling book “The Fifth
Discipline” reminds us through the famous “Beer Game”
that Systemic Structures have of a profound impact on
the outcome of business endeavors.
• This presentation uses Systems Dynamics to
demonstrate that your project success can strongly
depend on achieving a Critical Mass of properly
understood and structured project Requirements that
we refer to as Cohesive Requirements.
2
Copyright (c) 2011-2015 Pragmatic Cohesion

Introduction
• This presentation qualifies Properly understood and
structured project Requirements as Cohesive . Refer
to the SlideShare presentation “Managing enterprise
stakeholders collaboration a qualitative and
quantitative rational approach” for an in depth
presentation of Cohesive Requirements.
• The opposite of Cohesive Requirements are
Inconsistent Requirements. In this presentation, we
call poorly understood and disorganized
Requirements Inconsistent Requirements.
3

Introduction
• We present a Systems Dynamics causal
model that uses the relationships
between the numbers of Cohesive and
Inconsistent Requirements found in a
Project to forecast its chances of
succeeding or failing.
4

The Causal Model
G1I: Focus factor on Effective
Business Analysis Practices
R1I: Proper Requirements
understanding and
structuring Rate
L1: Number of
Cohesive
Requirements
Captured
R1O: Requirements
Cohesion Disruption
Rate
G1O: Influence of Inconsistent
Requirements on Cohesive
ones
+
+
+
-
++
R2O: Requirements
Cohesion Correction
Rate
G2O: Influence of Cohesive
Requirements on Inconsistent
ones
+
+
R2I: Requirements
Inconsistency Creation
Rate
L2: Number of
Inconsistent
Requirements
Captured
-
+
++
+
G2I: Focus factor on Ineffective Business Analysis Practices
+
SECOND-ORDER POSITIVE FEEDBACK WITH FIRST-ORDER LOOPS
5

The Causal Model
• The number of Cohesive Requirements Captured (L1) is
increased by the Proper Requirements understanding and
structuring Rate (R1I).
• The number of Cohesive Requirements Captured (L1) is
decreased by the Requirements Cohesion Disruption Rate
(R1O).
• The number of Inconsistent Requirements Captured (L2) is
increased by the Requirements Inconsistency Creation Rate
(R2I)
• The number of Inconsistent Requirements Captured (L2) is
decreased by the Requirements Cohesion Correction Rate
(R2O)
6

The Causal Model
• The Proper Requirements understanding and structuring Rate
(R1I) is increased by the Focus factor on Effective Business
Analysis Practices (G1I)
• The Proper Requirements understanding and structuring Rate
(R1I) is increased by the Number of Cohesive Requirements
Captured (L1)
• The Requirements Inconsistency Creation Rate (R2I) is
increased by the Focus factor on Ineffective Business Analysis
Practices (G2I)
• The Requirements Inconsistency Creation Rate (R2I) is
increased by the Number of Inconsistent Requirements
Captured (L2)
7

The Causal Model
• The Requirements Cohesion Correction Rate (R2O) is
increased by the Number of Cohesive Requirements
Captured (L1)
increased by the Number of Inconsistent
Requirements Captured (L2)
increased by the Influence of Cohesive
Requirements on Inconsistent ones (G2O)
8

The Causal Model
• The Requirements Cohesion Disruption Rate (R1O) is
increased by the Number of Cohesive Requirements
Captured (L1)
increased by the Number of Inconsistent
Requirements Captured (L2)
increased by the Influence of Inconsistent
Requirements on Cohesive ones (G1O)
9

Equilibrium Points
• L1e = Number of Cohesive Requirements Captured at
equilibrium = E1 = G2I/G2O
• L2e = Number of Inconsistent Requirements Captured at
equilibrium = E2 = G1I/G1O
• E1 and E2 are critical thresholds values that influence the
dynamic behavior and long term outcome of the Project.
• E1 and E2 will determine if a Project has sufficient Cohesion
to succeed based on its current numbers of Cohesive (L1)
and Inconsistent (L2) Requirements.
• Note that the equilibrium point of each Type of Requirements
is dependent on the behavioral characteristics of the other
type of Requirements. This fact is a clear example of the
interdependency between Cohesive and Inconsistent
Requirements.
10

Counting Cohesive(L1) and Inconsistent(L2) Requirements
Example 1
Copyright (c) 2011-2015 Pragmatic
Cohesion Consulting; All Rights Reserved
11
L1 L2 G1I R1I G1O R1O G2I R2I G2O R2O
3 2 1 3x1=3 3/3/2=0
.5
3 1 2x1=2 2/3/2=0
.33
2
E1=G2I/G2O=1/0.33=3 E2=G1I/G1O=1/0.5=2
Blue = 3 initially cohesive requirements
Red = 2 initially inconsistent requirements
-Each cohesive requirement is
Disrupted by the inconsistent ones
-Each inconsistent requirement is
revealed by the cohesive one
-Each cohesive requirement will generate
another one since G1I = 1
-Each inconsistent requirement will generate
Another one since G2I = 1

Example 1
12
3+3-3=3 2+2-2=2 1 3x1=3 3/3/2=0.5 3 1 2x1=2 2/3/2=0.33 2
E1=G2I/G2O=1/0.33=3 E2=G1I/G1O=1/0.5=2
2 new inconsistent requirements are generated
3 new cohesive requirements are generated
2 inconsistent requirements are removed
3 cohesive requirements are removed

Example 2
13
3 2 1 3x1=3 2/3/2=0.33 2 1 2x1=2 2/3/2=0.33 2
E1=G2I/G2O=1/0.33=3 E2=G1I/G1O=1/.33=3
another one since G1I = 1
2 cohesive requirements are
disrupted by 2 inconsistent ones
2 inconsistent requirements are
revealed by 2 cohesive ones

Example 2
14
E1=G2I/G2O=1/0.33=3 E2=G1I/G1O=1/0.33=3
3+3-2=4 2+2-2=2 1 4x1=4 2/3/2=.33 .33x4x2=2.66 1 2x1=
2
2/3/2=
0.33
.33x4x2
=2.66
3 new cohesive requirements are generated bringing their total count to 4

Example 3
15
3 2 2 3x2=6 2/3/2=.
33
2 1 2x1=2 2/3/2=0
.33
2
E1=G2I/G2O=1/0.33=3 E2=G1I/G1O=2/.33=6
2 other ones since G1I = 2
2 cohesive requirements are
disrupted by 2 inconsistent ones
2 inconsistent requirements are
revealed by 2 cohesive ones

Example 3
16
E1=G2I/G2O=1/0.33=3 E2=G1I/G1O=2/0.33=6
3+6-2=7 2+2-2=2 2 7x2=14 2/3/2=.
33
.33x7x2
=4.62
1 2x1=2 2/3/2=0
.33
.33x7x2
=4.62
6 new cohesive requirements are generated bringing their total count to 7

Example 3
17
E1=G2I/G2O=1/0.33=3 E2=G1I/G1O=2/0.33=6
L1 L2 G1I R1I G1O G2I R2I G2O
7+14-
4=17
2+2-4=0 2 2/3/2=.
33
1 2/3/2=0
.33

Cohesive-Inconsistent Requirements
Curves
• The dynamic behavior of our causal model is that of a
Second Order Positive Feedback loop with first order
Loops
• This type of causal model has been extensively studied. It
generates families of parametric curves along the L1 axis
(Number of Cohesive Requirements) and L2 axis (Number
of Inconsistent Requirements)
• The Project moves along one of the curves based only on
the initial values of L1 and L2 and the values of E1 and E2
• The following slide shows what these curves look like.
18

Cohesive-Inconsistent Requirements Curves
00
L1= Number of Cohesive Requirements Captured
L2=NumberofInconsistentRequirementsCaptured
E1
E2
Area 1
Area 2
Area 3
Area 4
T1
T2
The type of curve followed by the project depends on
E1, E2, and the initial values of L1 and L2!

00
E1 = 30
E2 = 10
Area 1
Area 2
Area 3
Area 4
T1
T2
With E1=30 and E2=10, the curves are much more likely to
be in Area 1 or Area 3

00
E1 = 10
E2 = 30
Area 1
Area 2
Area 3
Area 4
T1
T2
With E1=10 and E2=30, the curves are much more likely to
be in Area 2 or Area 4

00
E1 = 10
E2 = 30
Area 1
Area 2
Area 3
Area 4
T1
T2
Let’s say that the project starts with
L1-L2 Located in Area 4 (Good Area!)

00
E1 = 30
E2 = 10
Area 1
Area 2
Area 3
Area 4
T1
T2
A decision that changed the values of E1 and E2 now places the project
location in Area 1!
E1 was increased by either:
-Increasing G2I (Focus factor on Ineffective Business Analysis Practices )
-Decreasing G2O (Influence of Cohesive Requirements on Inconsistent ones)
E2 was decreased by either:
-Increasing G1O (Influence of Inconsistent Requirements on Cohesive ones)
-Decreasing G1I (Focus factor on Effective Business Analysis Practices)

00
E1 = 30
E2 = 10
Area 1
Area 2
Area 3
Area 4
T1
T2
If E1 and E2 do not change for a while, the project location
remains in Area 1 but moves to this new location

00
E1 = 10
E2 = 30
Area 1
Area 2
Area 3
Area 4
T1
T2
A decision brings E1 and E2 back to their previous values:
but the project location is no longer in Area 4 but in Area 3!
Unless E1 is further reduced to be less than the current L1
value, we cannot go back to Area 4.
E1 can be decreased by either:
-Decreasing G2I (Focus factor on Ineffective Business
Analysis Practices )
-Increasing G2O (Influence of Cohesive Requirements on
Inconsistent ones)

Number of Cohesive Requirements Equilibrium
Point Calculation
Variable Explanation
G2I: Focus
factor on
Ineffective
Business
Analysis
Practices
G2I is the focus factor on Ineffective Business Analysis Practices where the
current Inconsistencies in requirements are propagated thus further
creating more Inconsistent requirements.
So if we say that for every 10 Inconsistent requirements the project
typically comes up with an additional 6, then G2I = 6/10 =0.6
G2O:
Influence of
Cohesive
Requirements
on
Inconsistent
ones
G2O represents Cohesion restored to previously Inconsistent
requirements in proportion to the current number of Cohesive and
Inconsistent requirements.
If we say that 1 Inconsistent requirement gets corrected when we have 10
Cohesive requirements and 5 Inconsistent requirements, then G2O =
1/(10x5) = 0.02
E1 E1 is the number of Cohesive requirements at equilibrium.
E1 = G2I/G2O
Using our example E1 = 0.6/0.02 = 30 requirements
26

Number of Inconsistent Requirements
Equilibrium Point Calculation
Variable Explanation
G1I: Focus factor
on Effective
Business
Analysis
Practices
G1I is the focus factor on Effective Business Analysis Practices where
the current requirement Cohesion is propagated further thus creating
more Cohesive requirements.
So if we say that for every 10 Cohesive requirements we typically come
up with an additional 8, then G1I = 8/10 =0.8
G1O: Influence
of Inconsistent
Requirements
on Cohesive
ones
G1O represents Cohesion lost from previously Cohesive requirements
in proportion to the current number of Cohesive and Inconsistent
requirements.
If we say that 4 Cohesive requirements get affected when we have 10
Cohesive requirements and 5 Inconsistent requirements, then G1O =
4/(10x5) = 0.08
E2 E2 is the number of Inconsistent requirements at equilibrium.
E2 = G1I/G1O
Using our example E2 = 0.8/0.08 = 10 requirements
27

Project Curve Types
Area The initial number of Cohesive Requirements and the initial
number of Inconsistent Requirements are in Area 1
Area 1: There are a lot of
Inconsistent and
Cohesive requirements
at the same time but the
number of Inconsistent
requirements is above
the threshold line T1.
T1 joins (0,0) to (E1,E2)
-There are lots of requirements of both types resulting in a
steady decrease of the number of Cohesive and Inconsistent
Requirements. In this phase, both types of Requirements
initially undermine each other in a none productive way.
-When the number of Cohesive requirements drops below E1,
the number of Inconsistent requirements begins to increase
and continue to do so while less and less Cohesive
requirements exist due to the introduction of inconsistencies.
-With more and more Inconsistent requirements, the project
eventually falls to its doom by lacking enough Requirements
Cohesion.
28

Project Curve Types
Area 2: There are a lot of
Inconsistent and
Cohesive requirements
but the number of
Inconsistent
requirements is below
-There are lots of Cohesive and Inconsistent requirements
resulting in a steady decrease of the number of requirements
for both sides. In this phase, both types of requirements
initially undermine each other in a none productive way.
-When the number of Inconsistent requirements drops below
E2, the number of Cohesive requirements begins to increase
and continue to do so while more and more inconsistent
requirements get corrected.
-With more and more Cohesive requirements, the Project
prospers due to its increasing mass of Cohesive Requirements.
29

Project Curve Types
Area 3: Both Cohesive
and Inconsistent
requirements start in
small numbers but the
requirements is above
-The number of Cohesive and Inconsistent requirements start
by increasing on both sides. In this phase, both types of
requirements increase but there is a steady slowing down of
the rate at which Cohesive requirements increase.
-When the number of Inconsistent requirements passes E2, the
number of Cohesive requirements begins to decrease and
continues to do so while more and more Inconsistent
requirements are created.
-With more and more Inconsistent requirements, the project
eventually falls to its doom by lacking enough Requirements
Cohesion.
30

Project Curve Types
Area 4: Both Cohesive
and Inconsistent
requirements start in
small numbers but the
requirements is below
-The number of Cohesive and Inconsistent requirements start
by increasing on both sides. In this phase, both types of
requirements increase but there is a steady slowing down of
the rate at which Inconsistent requirements increase.
-When the number of Cohesive requirements passes E1, the
number of Inconsistent requirements begins to decrease and
continues to do so while more and more Cohesive
requirements are created.
-With more and more Cohesive requirements, the Project
prospers due to its increasing mass of Cohesive Requirements.
31

Project Curve Types
number of Inconsistent Requirements are on T1
T1 joins (0,0) to (E1,E2): -The number of requirements for both types gradually moves
towards the point (E1,E2) and converges to it in the long run.
-The numbers of Inconsistent and Cohesive requirements reach
their equilibrium values and settle there.
32

Number of Cohesive Requirements Equilibrium Point (E1) Impact
Variable Impact
G2I: Focus factor on
Ineffective Business
Analysis Practices
-If you increase G2I you Increase E1
-If you increase E1 and you are in Area 1 you increase the
chances of Inconsistent Requirements to take over Cohesive
ones.
-If you increase E1 and you are in Area 4 you delay the point at
which Cohesive requirements takes over Inconsistent ones.
G2O: Influence of
Cohesive Requirements
on Inconsistent ones
-if you increase G2O you decrease E1
-If you decrease E1 and you are in Area 1 you decrease the
chances of Inconsistent requirements to take over Cohesive
ones.
-If you decrease E1 and you are in Area 4 you reach faster the
point at which Cohesive requirements take over Inconsistent
ones.
33

Number of Inconsistent Requirements Equilibrium Point (E2) Impact
Variable Impact
G1I: Focus factor on Effective Business
Analysis Practices
-If you increase G1I you Increase E2
-If you increase E2 and you are in Area 2 you
increase the chances of Cohesive requirements
to take over Inconsistent ones.
-If you increase E2 and you are in Area 3 you
delay the point at which Inconsistent
requirements take over Cohesive ones.
G1O: Influence of Inconsistent
Requirements on Cohesive ones
-if you increase G1O you decrease E2
-If you decrease E2 and you are in Area 2 you
decrease the chances of Cohesive requirements
to take over Inconsistent ones.
-If you decrease E2 and you are in Area 3 you
reach faster the point at which Inconsistent
requirements take over Cohesive ones.
34

Dynamic Equations
• L1(0) = N1
• L2(0) = N2
• L1(k) = L1(k-1) + dT.(R1I(k-1) – R1O(k-1))
• R1I(k) = L1(k).G1I
• R1O(k) = L1(k) .L2(k).G1O
• L2(k) = L2(k-1) + dT.(R2I(k-1) – R2O (k-1))
• R2I(k) = L2(k).G2I
• R2O(k) = L1(k).L2(k).G2O
35

36
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http://pragmaticohesion.com/

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