The document summarizes key trends in the global print market based on a presentation given at a Pira International conference. It discusses major demographic, economic, and technological trends impacting the print industry. These include a shift to digital media, rising costs, and demand for shorter runs and faster turnaround times. The document also reviews trends by end use sector and print process, noting opportunities for digital and inkjet but challenges for newspapers, books, and commercial printing. Regional growth patterns and an outlook emphasizing the rise of digital printing are also summarized.

1. Global Print Markets to 2016 Pira Executive Retreat, Global Print Markets, Nice, France, 6-7 October 2011 Adam Page, Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy, Pira International Pira International, Cleeve Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU membership@pira-international.com +44 (0)1372 802000

2. Agenda Global Print Market Megatrends Print Drivers End-use Sector trends Print Process trends Regional trends Outlook

3. The Global Print Market 3

4. Megatrends Demographic trends Economic trends Education Print media and advertising Communications Postal trends Environment 4

5. Changes in population profile by region, 2010-50 5 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

6. Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 6

7. Global Print Drivers Reduction in run length / shorter lead times Cost reduction pressure Metrics Full colour, totally variable printing. Versioning, personalisation and fully variable data Web-to-print systems Technology development Digital print 7

8. End-use Sectors Source: Pira International 8

9. End-use Sectors – market share Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Source: Pira International 9 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

10. Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Brand owners want innovative packaging and better graphics to gain competitive edge and enhance shelf appeal 10 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

11. Flexible packaging Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Gravure and flexo dominate Some offset and screen – Digital is small, fast growing Many converters, brand owners and retailers do not understand the capabilities of digital As digital productivity improves, economic break-even points are at higher run lengths Digitally printed flexibles: $1bn by 2015 11 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

12. Books is a low growth area outside India and a handful of other less well developed markets, and under threat from digital readers 12

13. Book industry trends Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 E-book challenges for publisher. Digitization and copyright Electronic media Marketing innovations Long Tail business model Changes in trade patterns are impacting upon book production in Europe. Print and book manufacturing technology is developing. 13 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

14. Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Opportunity for on-demand printing (and its flexibility and personalisation capability) in in magazine production 14 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

15. Magazine trends Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Magazine advertising’s historic and forecast shares of above-the-line media sales in Europe, 2003-2012 (% share by value) Source: Pira International Ltd from World Magazine Trends 15 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

16. Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Newspapers face soaring newsprint prices, slumping ad sales, loss of much classified advertising and drops in circulation 16 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

17. Newspaper trends Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Newspaper advertising’s historic and forecast shares of above-the-line media sales in Europe, 2003-2012 (% share by value) Source: Pira International Ltd from World Newspaper Trends 17 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

18. Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Average run lengths for many types of promotional print have fallen as advertisers better target potential customers 18

19. Transpromo Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Transpromo is growing strongly Targeted messages in transactional documents increase response rates and improve customer retention Balance of cost reduction and trying to boost revenue 19 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

20. Print Processes Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Source: Pira International 20 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

21. Print Processes – market share Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Source: Pira International 21 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

22. Sheetfed trends Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Still the dominant process but under pressure from digital Increased efficiencies of new technologies helping to reduce unit prices Large format presses are becoming important for the leading press suppliers Steady growth in the use of UV inks and varnishes 22 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

23. Web offset trends Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Increasing completion for a diminishing market hitting commercial heatset Significant developments in newspaper press technology Opportunities in hybrid web-inkjet 23 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

24. Flexo trends Top 25 mega-cities, 1950-2025 Continuing improvements in quality High performance direct flexo CTP such as Esko’s HDI Flexo have helped to push up the bar Benefiting from growth in packaging 24 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

25. Gravure trends High volume publication rotogravure and packaging/label printing applications Better quality on lower grades of paper than offset Complex and costly prepress stages to prepare cylinders 25

26. Electrophotography trends Transition from analogue to digital Benefits from trends for shorter runs and faster turnaround Capability of totally variable print also helps boost demand for commercial products. Relatively new sectors, such as photobooks, are becoming established Book printing is seeing strong growth, particularly with short run covers being transferred from offset 26

27. Inkjet trends Increasingly important in a range of formats over the next five to ten years Many benefits for printers and their customers Inkjet becoming part of an industrial decoration process 27

28. Screen trends Declining rapidly as wide format inkjet takes over Some growth in Asia 28

29. Geographic Regions Source: Pira International 29

30. Geographic Regions – market share Source: Pira International 30

31. North American printing industry: companies and employment, 2000–08 Source: Pira International Ltd from various sources 31

32. Outlook Rise of digital Megatrends having negative impact in many categories New technologies and new applications Growth in emerging markets 32

33. Thank you for listening. Adam Page Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy Pira International +44 (0) 1372 802 113 adam.page@pira-international.com

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