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Q2 2009
Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
India


A Manpower Research Report
2
Q2/09
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India




Contents

India Employment Outlook                                  1
   Regional Comparisons
   Sector Comparisons


Employment Outlook                                      14
   International Comparisons – Asia Pacific
   International Comparisons – Americas
   International Comparisons – Europe
                   International Comparisons – EMEA



About the Survey                                         23

About Manpower                                           24
4
India Employment Outlook
                               Indian employers predict steady headcount growth during
The Manpower                   Quarter 2 2009. With 25% predicting an increase in
                               headcount, 6% forecasting a decrease and 64%
Employment Outlook             anticipating no change, the resulting Net Employment
                               Outlook stands at a favorable +19%.
Survey for the second
                               Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
quarter 2009 was               Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage
                               of employers anticipating total employment to increase,
conducted by interviewing a    and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to
                               see a decrease in employment at their location in the next
representative sample of       quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net
                               Employment Outlook.
3,335 employers in India.      Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have remained
All survey participants were   relatively stable, but comparison with Quarter 2 2008
                               reveals a 17 percentage point decline in the Outlook,
asked, “How do you             reflecting considerably weaker hiring plans.

                               Once seasonal adjustments are added to the data, the
anticipate total employment    Outlook is a healthy +25%, reflecting solid opportunities
                               for job seekers over the upcoming quarter. Quarter-over-
at your location to change     quarter, the Outlook improves by a moderate 6
                               percentage points, although it is weaker by a considerable
in the three months to the     17 percentage points year-over-year.

end of June 2009 as            From this point forward, all data discussed in the
                               commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated
compared to the current        otherwise.

quarter?”




                                                                                        5
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India


Regional Comparisons
Employers in all four regions predict a strong labor market      the West. In the East there is more consistency with
in Quarter 2 2009, with the most optimistic forecast in the     Quarter 1 2008, and the Outlook has only declined by a
East, where the Net Employment Outlook stands at                slight 2 percentage points.
+27%. Outlooks for the South, West and North are
                                                                Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in all four
+24%, +23% and +22%, respectively.
                                                                regions predict positive hiring activity for the forthcoming
Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have strengthened       quarter. The strongest hiring intentions are reported in the
in all four regions. In the East, the Outlook is 7 percentage   East, where the Outlook is a healthy +24%, followed by
points stronger, while in the South and West, it has            the South, where the Outlook is +20%. In the North and
improved by 5 percentage points, and by 4 percentage            the West, favorable Outlooks of +17% are reported.
points in the North.                                            Quarter-over-quarter the Outlook remains relatively stable
                                                                in two regions, the North and West, and improves slightly
However, year-over-year comparison reveals weaker
                                                                in the East and South. Year-over-year, the Outlook has
hiring plans in all four regions. The Outlook has declined by
                                                                declined in all four regions.
a considerable 19 percentage points in both the North and
South, and there is a similar 18 percentage point decline in




6
North       + 22 (22)%                                      East      + 27 (27)%
With a Net Employment Outlook of +22%, employers in         In the East, employers predict a particularly healthy
the North forecast solid headcount growth during            hiring climate in Quarter 2 2009. With a Net
Quarter 2 2009. Their hiring plans have strengthened        Employment Outlook of +27%, employers report a
slightly, quarter-over-quarter, with a 4 percentage point   moderate 7 percentage point improvement in hiring
improvement in the Outlook. Year-over-year, however,        prospects quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, however,
the Outlook is weaker by a considerable 19 percentage       the Outlook is slightly weaker, by 2 percentage points.
points.
                                                            Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +24%,
Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +17%,       following a slight 4 percentage point improvement
and has remained relatively stable quarter-over-quarter.    quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook has
Year-over-year, the Outlook is weaker by 19 percentage      declined by 2 percentage points.
points.




South        + 22 (22)%                                     West       + 27 (27)%
In the South, employers predict an active labor market      With a Net Employment Outlook of +23%, employers in
in Quarter 2 2009, reporting a Net Employment Outlook       the West forecast strong hiring prospects for the
of +24%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook improves by      forthcoming quarter. The current Outlook is a 5
5 percentage points, but year-over-year it is a             percentage point improvement on Quarter 1 2009,
considerable 19 percentage points weaker.                   revealing stronger hiring intentions. But year-over-year,
                                                            the Outlook declines by 18 percentage points.
Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +20%.
Quarter-over-quarter, it has improved by 2 percentage       Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +17%,
points while year-over-year there has been a                relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but weaker by 18
considerable 19 percentage point decline.                   percentage points year-over-year.




                                                                                                                    7
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India


Sector Comparisons
Employers in all seven industry sectors expect                Comparison with Quarter 2 2008 reveals weaker hiring
headcount to grow during Quarter 2 2009. The most             intentions in all seven sectors. The decline has been
optimistic projections are reported in the Services           steepest in the Mining & Construction and the Finance,
sector, with a strong Net Employment Outlook of +29%.         Insurance & Real Estate sectors, by 28 and 26
In the Transportation & Utilities sector, the Outlook is a    percentage points, respectively. The smallest decline is
healthy +23%, while it is +22% for both the                   reported by employers in the Public Administration &
Manufacturing and the Public Administration &                 Education sector, but even here, the decline has been a
Education sectors, and +21% for the Finance,                  considerable 10 percentage points.
Insurance & Real Estate sector.
                                                              Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast
Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions are stronger in six   positive hiring activity in all seven sectors for Quarter 2
of the seven sectors, with the strongest improvement of       2009. The Public Administration & Education sector is
11 percentage points reported by employers in the             expected to see the strongest growth, with an Outlook
Transportation & Utilities sector. A more moderate            of +22%, and employers in the Services and
increase of 7 percentage points is reported for the           Transportation & Utilities sectors report Outlooks of
Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, while both the Services      +20%. Quarter-over-quarter, Outlooks have improved in
and Public Administration & Education sector Outlooks         four sectors, but declined in two, most notably the 11
are 6 percentage points stronger. Employers in the            percentage point decrease in the Mining & Construction
Mining & Construction sector, however, report a slight 3      sector. Year-over-year, Outlooks have weakened in all
percentage point decline.                                     seven sectors.




8
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate                             Manufacturing
Employers predict healthy headcount growth in Quarter        With a Net Employment Outlook of +22%, employers in
2 2009. They report a Net Employment Outlook of              the Manufacturing industry sector expect healthy hiring
+21%, which represents a slight 4 percentage point           prospects for job seekers during Quarter 2 2009.
improvement on the previous quarter. However, year-          Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have improved
over-year, hiring plans have weakened sharply, with a 26     slightly, with a 4 percentage point increase, although
percentage point decline in the Outlook.                     year-over-year the Outlook is weaker by a considerable
                                                             15 percentage points.
Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +13%
and has declined both quarter-over-quarter and year-         Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +18%,
over-year, by 3 and 26 percentage points, respectively.      remaining relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, but
                                                             weakening by 15 percentage points year-over-year.




Mining & Construction                                        Public Admin/ Education
In the Mining & Construction industry sector, employers      Public Administration & Education industry sector
have upbeat hiring plans for the forthcoming quarter,        employers forecast healthy growth in staffing levels for
reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +20%.                  Quarter 2 2009, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of
However, this is the least optimistic Outlook reported for   +22%. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring plans have
the sector since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005,         improved, with the Outlook increasing by 6 percentage
following a slight 3 percentage point decline quarter-       points. Year-over-year, however, the Outlook is weaker
over-quarter and a steep 28 percentage point decrease        by 10 percentage points.
year-over-year.
                                                             Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +22%,
Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +12%.        reflecting a 7 percentage point improvement quarter-
Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook decreases by a             over-quarter, but a 9 percentage point decline year-over-
considerable 11 percentage points, while year-over-year      year.




                                                                                                                        9
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India


                                                          Transportation & Utilities
Services
Solid hiring prospects are anticipated in the Services    Transportation & Utilities industry sector employers
industry sector, where employers report a Net             expect an active labor market in Quarter 2 2009,
Employment Outlook of +29% for Quarter 2 2009.            reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. This
Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook has strengthened by 6   reflects considerably stronger hiring intentions quarter-
percentage points, although year-over-year it is weaker   over-quarter, with the Outlook improving by 11
by a considerable 19 percentage points.                   percentage points, although year-over-year it is weaker
                                                          by 14 percentage points.
Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +20%
for the second successive quarter, but weaker by 20       Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +20%,
percentage points year-over-year.                         having improved by 7 percentage points quarter-over-
                                                          quarter but declining by 13 percentage points year-over-
                                                          year.




10
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India


Wholesale & Retail Trade
With a Net Employment Outlook of +18%, sector
employers predict a favorable hiring climate for Quarter
2 2009. The Outlook improves by a moderate 7
percentage points quarter-over-quarter, although year-
over-year, it weakens by 17 percentage points.

Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +14%,
and has improved by a slight 2 percentage points
quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook has
declined by a considerable 17 percentage points.




                                                           11
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India



Global Employment Outlook




12
Over 72,000 employers have been interviewed across           employers in Colombia, Peru and Costa Rica remain
34 countries and territories to measure anticipated          somewhat optimistic. However, employers in the United
employment trends* between April and June 2009.              States report the gloomiest Outlook since the 1982
Employers in 13 of the 34 countries and territories          recession, and Mexican employers report their least
Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces          optimistic Outlook – and the country's first negative
in Quarter 2 2009. However, where year-over-year             forecast – since Manpower began surveying there in
comparisons can be made, hiring expectations are             2002. In the Asia Pacific region, job prospects are
decidedly weaker in all countries and territories surveyed   generally less optimistic with employers in all countries
compared to 12 months ago. Notably, employers in 24          and territories surveyed except India reporting weaker
countries and territories are reporting the weakest hiring   hiring plans compared to the previous quarter.
plans since the surveys were established there by            Meanwhile, employee hiring plans weaken in all of the
Manpower. Israeli employers also join the survey this        countries and territories compared to one year ago. In
quarter.                                                     the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region,
Despite weaker second-quarter forecasts, employment
                                                             Outlooks decline from three months ago in 12 of 17
prospects are most favorable in India, South Africa,
                                                             countries, with employers in Italy, the Czech Republic
Colombia, Peru, Poland, China, the Netherlands and
                                                             and South Africa anticipating a slightly improved hiring
Costa Rica. Employer hiring expectations are weakest
                                                             pace. Outlooks have declined in all 17 of the region's
in Singapore, Ireland, Spain, New Zealand, Taiwan, Italy
                                                             countries where year-over-year comparisons are
and the United Kingdom.
                                                             possible.
On a regional basis, employment prospects are mixed,         * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data
but reveal a generally downward trend. In the Americas,      where available.

Survey Respondents by Region
                                                             Research for the Quarter 2 2009 Manpower
                                                             Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying over
                                                             72,000 human resource directors and senior hiring
                                                             managers from public and private organizations
                                                             worldwide: 58% of the respondents came from eight
                                                             countries in the Americas; 22% from 18 countries in
                                                             EMEA: and 20% from eight countries and territories
                                                             across Asia Pacific.

                                                             (Quarterly Barometer Chart: Content on page 11 of this
                                                             document)




                                                                                                                    13
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India


International Comparisons – Asia Pacific
Nearly 15,000 interviews have been conducted across         half of all employers indicating they will trim payrolls in
the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring      the next three months. Employers in Australia, Japan
activity between April and June 2009.                      and New Zealand are reporting their first negative
                                                           Outlooks since the surveys were established in these
Employer hiring confidence continues to decline
                                                           countries.
throughout most of the region. Only employers in India
and China expect to add employees in the quarter           Employers in India and China are anticipating the most
ahead, and only employers in India report improved         favorable hiring activity in the region for the upcoming
hiring plans compared to three months ago. The year-       quarter, while those in Hong Kong, Japan, New
over-year hiring pace is expected to be notably weaker     Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan report the least
throughout the region, with employers in six of the        optimistic hiring intentions. Notably, employers in
region's eight countries and territories reporting their   Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and
weakest hiring plans since the surveys began. Hiring       Taiwan are reporting their least optimistic hiring plans
intentions in Singapore continue to drop sharply, with     since the surveys began there.

Australia                                                  China




Hong Kong                                                  India




14
Japan       New Zealand




Singapore   Taiwan




                          15
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India


International Comparisons – Americas
Over 42,000 interviews have been conducted across          Employers in Colombia are forecasting the most
Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala,        optimistic hiring plans in the region, with employers in
Mexico, Peru and the United States to measure              Peru, Costa Rica and Canada also reporting positive but
employment prospects for Quarter 2 2009.                   less optimistic Net Employment Outlooks for the quarter
                                                           ahead. On the other hand, first-quarter hiring intentions
While positive Net Employment Outlooks are reported in
                                                           are weakest in Mexico, the United States, Argentina and
four of the eight countries surveyed, the hiring pace is
                                                           Guatemala; the Outlook from Mexican employers is the
expected to slow from 12 months ago in each of the
                                                           weakest since Manpower established the survey there
seven countries where year-over-year data is available.
                                                           in 2002. The Outlooks for Argentina, Colombia, Costa
The hiring pace is also expected to slow in every
                                                           Rica, Guatemala and Peru are also the least optimistic
country compared to three months ago, with negative
                                                           reported to date.
hiring intentions reported in Mexico, the United States,
Argentina and Guatemala.

Argentina                                                  Canada




Colombia                                                   Costa Rica




16
Guatemala   Mexico




USA         Peru




                     17
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India


International Comparisons – EMEA
Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted with                 pessimism in the Finance and Manufacturing sectors is
employers across 18 countries to measure anticipated           contributing to fewer opportunities for job seekers –
employment trends for Quarter 1 2009. Israeli                  particularly in the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland
employers participate in the survey for the first time.        where employer hiring plans are some of the weakest
Of the countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East           reported globally.
and Africa (EMEA) region, only employers in South
                                                               Employers in South Africa, Poland and the Netherlands
Africa, Poland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria,
                                                               are forecasting the most favorable hiring activity, while
Belgium and Norway are reporting positive, but modest,
                                                               employers in Ireland and Spain are the least optimistic
second-quarter hiring activity. However, in countries
                                                               for the quarter ahead. Furthermore, employers in
where year-over-year comparisons can be made, all
                                                               France, Greece, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Romania,
expect cutbacks. In comparison to three months ago,
                                                               Spain and Sweden also report their least optimistic
only Outlooks from Austria, France and South Africa are
                                                               hiring plans since the surveys were launched in these
relatively stable, while Italian employers report a slightly
                                                               countries.
improved but still negative forecast. Growing employer

Austria                                                        Belgium




Czech Republic                                                 France




18
Germany       Greece




Ireland       Italy




Netherlands   Norway




Poland        Romania




                        19
South Africa   Spain




Sweden         Switzerland




UK




 20
About the Survey                                               Throughout this report, we use the term “Net
                                                               Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is                      the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in
conducted quarterly to measure employers' intentions           hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage
to increase or decrease the number of employees in             of employers expecting to see a decrease in
their workforce during the next quarter. The survey has        employment at their location in the next quarter. The
been running for more than 45 years and is one of the          result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.
most trusted surveys of employment activity in the
                                                               Net Employment Outlook
world. Various factors underpin the success of the
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
                                                               Throughout this report, we use the term “Net
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and
                                                               Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking
area of focus.
                                                               the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey             hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage
is the most extensive, forward-looking employment              of employers expecting to see a decrease in
survey in the world, asking employers to forecast              employment at their location in the next quarter. The
employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other           result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.
surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to
                                                               Seasonal Adjustment
report on what occurred in the past.
                                                               Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has
                                                               Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France,
derived all of its information from a single question.
                                                               Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan,
                                                               Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore,
Independent: The survey is conducted with a
                                                               Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United
representative sample of employers from throughout the
                                                               Kingdom and the United States to provide additional
countries in which it is conducted. The survey
                                                               insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it
participants are not derived from Manpower's customer
                                                               possible to review the data without the employment
base.
                                                               fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over            year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over
72,000 public and private employers across 34                  time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to
countries and territories to measure anticipated               the data for other countries in the future, as more
employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for         historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008,
analysis to be performed across specific sectors and           Manpower adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of
regions to provide more detailed information.                  seasonal adjustment for data.

                                                               History of the Survey
Methodology
                                                               1962    1st generation of the Manpower Employment
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is                              Outlook Survey launched in the United States
                                                                       and Canada.
conducted using a validated methodology, in
accordance with the highest standards in market
                                                               1966    Manpower's United Kingdom operation
research. The research team for the 33 countries and
                                                                       launches the equivalent of the United States
territories where the survey is currently conducted                    survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey
includes Manpower's internal research team and                         of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts
                                                                       the same forward looking research format as
Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be
                                                                       the United States survey and is the first of its
representative of each national economy. The margin of
                                                                       kind in Europe.
error for all national, regional and global data is not
greater than +/- 3.9%.                                         1976    2nd generation of Manpower's Employment
[Add national information and margin of error here]                    Outlook Survey launched in the United States
                                                                       and Canada. Research methodology is updated
Survey Question
                                                                       to evolve with advancements in the field of
All employers participating in the survey worldwide are                market research.

                                                                                                                      21
2002   Manpower United Kingdom's Quarterly Survey         2008    Manpower operations in Colombia, the Czech
            of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt                Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and
            an enhanced research methodology.                          Romania join the survey program. China and
            Manpower's operations in Mexico and Ireland                Taiwan add seasonally adjusted data in the
            launch the survey in their respective countries.           second quarter. India and Switzerland add
                                                                       seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter.
     2003   3rd generation of the Manpower Employment
            Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the          2009    Manpower operations in Israel join the survey
            program to a total of 18 countries worldwide:              program.
            Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France,
                                                               About Manpower Inc.
            Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan,
            Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,
                                                               Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
            Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United
                                                               employment services industry; creating and delivering
            States.
                                                               services that enable its clients to win in the changing
                                                               world of work. Founded in 1948, the $22 billion
     2004   Manpower operations in New Zealand launch
                                                               company offers employers a range of services for the
            the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
                                                               entire employment and business cycle including
     2005   Manpower operations in China, India,               permanent, temporary and contract recruitment;
            Switzerland, and Taiwan launch the Manpower        employee assessment and selection; training;
            Employment Outlook Survey.                         outplacement; outsourcing and consulting.
                                                               Manpower's worldwide network of 4,400 offices in 82
     2006   Manpower operations in Costa Rica and Peru
                                                               countries and territories enables the company to meet
            join the survey program. Surveys in Australia,
                                                               the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, including small
            Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong
                                                               and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as
            Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico,
                                                               well as the world's largest multinational corporations.
            Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain and
                                                               The focus of Manpower's work is on raising productivity
            Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the
                                                               through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction
            third quarter. Manpower operations in South
                                                               across their total workforce, enabling clients to
            Africa launch the Manpower Employment
                                                               concentrate on their core business activities. Manpower
            Outlook Survey.
                                                               Inc. operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower
                                                               Professional, Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right
     2007   Manpower operations in Argentina join the
                                                               Management. More information on Manpower Inc. is
            Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The
            survey in New Zealand adds seasonally              available at www.manpower.com.
            adjusted data in the first quarter.




22
Manpower Services India Pvt. Ltd.
A-26/1, First Floor,
Mohan Cooperative
Industrial Estate, Mathura Road,
New Delhi 110044
India
Tel: +91 (11) 40555400
www.manpower.co.in
© 2008, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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Q2 2009 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Report

  • 2. 2
  • 3. Q2/09 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Contents India Employment Outlook 1 Regional Comparisons Sector Comparisons Employment Outlook 14 International Comparisons – Asia Pacific International Comparisons – Americas International Comparisons – Europe International Comparisons – EMEA About the Survey 23 About Manpower 24
  • 4. 4
  • 5. India Employment Outlook Indian employers predict steady headcount growth during The Manpower Quarter 2 2009. With 25% predicting an increase in headcount, 6% forecasting a decrease and 64% Employment Outlook anticipating no change, the resulting Net Employment Outlook stands at a favorable +19%. Survey for the second Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment quarter 2009 was Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, conducted by interviewing a and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next representative sample of quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. 3,335 employers in India. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have remained All survey participants were relatively stable, but comparison with Quarter 2 2008 reveals a 17 percentage point decline in the Outlook, asked, “How do you reflecting considerably weaker hiring plans. Once seasonal adjustments are added to the data, the anticipate total employment Outlook is a healthy +25%, reflecting solid opportunities for job seekers over the upcoming quarter. Quarter-over- at your location to change quarter, the Outlook improves by a moderate 6 percentage points, although it is weaker by a considerable in the three months to the 17 percentage points year-over-year. end of June 2009 as From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated compared to the current otherwise. quarter?” 5
  • 6. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Regional Comparisons Employers in all four regions predict a strong labor market the West. In the East there is more consistency with in Quarter 2 2009, with the most optimistic forecast in the Quarter 1 2008, and the Outlook has only declined by a East, where the Net Employment Outlook stands at slight 2 percentage points. +27%. Outlooks for the South, West and North are Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in all four +24%, +23% and +22%, respectively. regions predict positive hiring activity for the forthcoming Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have strengthened quarter. The strongest hiring intentions are reported in the in all four regions. In the East, the Outlook is 7 percentage East, where the Outlook is a healthy +24%, followed by points stronger, while in the South and West, it has the South, where the Outlook is +20%. In the North and improved by 5 percentage points, and by 4 percentage the West, favorable Outlooks of +17% are reported. points in the North. Quarter-over-quarter the Outlook remains relatively stable in two regions, the North and West, and improves slightly However, year-over-year comparison reveals weaker in the East and South. Year-over-year, the Outlook has hiring plans in all four regions. The Outlook has declined by declined in all four regions. a considerable 19 percentage points in both the North and South, and there is a similar 18 percentage point decline in 6
  • 7. North + 22 (22)% East + 27 (27)% With a Net Employment Outlook of +22%, employers in In the East, employers predict a particularly healthy the North forecast solid headcount growth during hiring climate in Quarter 2 2009. With a Net Quarter 2 2009. Their hiring plans have strengthened Employment Outlook of +27%, employers report a slightly, quarter-over-quarter, with a 4 percentage point moderate 7 percentage point improvement in hiring improvement in the Outlook. Year-over-year, however, prospects quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, however, the Outlook is weaker by a considerable 19 percentage the Outlook is slightly weaker, by 2 percentage points. points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +24%, Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +17%, following a slight 4 percentage point improvement and has remained relatively stable quarter-over-quarter. quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook has Year-over-year, the Outlook is weaker by 19 percentage declined by 2 percentage points. points. South + 22 (22)% West + 27 (27)% In the South, employers predict an active labor market With a Net Employment Outlook of +23%, employers in in Quarter 2 2009, reporting a Net Employment Outlook the West forecast strong hiring prospects for the of +24%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook improves by forthcoming quarter. The current Outlook is a 5 5 percentage points, but year-over-year it is a percentage point improvement on Quarter 1 2009, considerable 19 percentage points weaker. revealing stronger hiring intentions. But year-over-year, the Outlook declines by 18 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +20%. Quarter-over-quarter, it has improved by 2 percentage Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +17%, points while year-over-year there has been a relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but weaker by 18 considerable 19 percentage point decline. percentage points year-over-year. 7
  • 8. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Sector Comparisons Employers in all seven industry sectors expect Comparison with Quarter 2 2008 reveals weaker hiring headcount to grow during Quarter 2 2009. The most intentions in all seven sectors. The decline has been optimistic projections are reported in the Services steepest in the Mining & Construction and the Finance, sector, with a strong Net Employment Outlook of +29%. Insurance & Real Estate sectors, by 28 and 26 In the Transportation & Utilities sector, the Outlook is a percentage points, respectively. The smallest decline is healthy +23%, while it is +22% for both the reported by employers in the Public Administration & Manufacturing and the Public Administration & Education sector, but even here, the decline has been a Education sectors, and +21% for the Finance, considerable 10 percentage points. Insurance & Real Estate sector. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions are stronger in six positive hiring activity in all seven sectors for Quarter 2 of the seven sectors, with the strongest improvement of 2009. The Public Administration & Education sector is 11 percentage points reported by employers in the expected to see the strongest growth, with an Outlook Transportation & Utilities sector. A more moderate of +22%, and employers in the Services and increase of 7 percentage points is reported for the Transportation & Utilities sectors report Outlooks of Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, while both the Services +20%. Quarter-over-quarter, Outlooks have improved in and Public Administration & Education sector Outlooks four sectors, but declined in two, most notably the 11 are 6 percentage points stronger. Employers in the percentage point decrease in the Mining & Construction Mining & Construction sector, however, report a slight 3 sector. Year-over-year, Outlooks have weakened in all percentage point decline. seven sectors. 8
  • 9. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Employers predict healthy headcount growth in Quarter With a Net Employment Outlook of +22%, employers in 2 2009. They report a Net Employment Outlook of the Manufacturing industry sector expect healthy hiring +21%, which represents a slight 4 percentage point prospects for job seekers during Quarter 2 2009. improvement on the previous quarter. However, year- Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have improved over-year, hiring plans have weakened sharply, with a 26 slightly, with a 4 percentage point increase, although percentage point decline in the Outlook. year-over-year the Outlook is weaker by a considerable 15 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +13% and has declined both quarter-over-quarter and year- Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +18%, over-year, by 3 and 26 percentage points, respectively. remaining relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, but weakening by 15 percentage points year-over-year. Mining & Construction Public Admin/ Education In the Mining & Construction industry sector, employers Public Administration & Education industry sector have upbeat hiring plans for the forthcoming quarter, employers forecast healthy growth in staffing levels for reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +20%. Quarter 2 2009, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of However, this is the least optimistic Outlook reported for +22%. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring plans have the sector since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005, improved, with the Outlook increasing by 6 percentage following a slight 3 percentage point decline quarter- points. Year-over-year, however, the Outlook is weaker over-quarter and a steep 28 percentage point decrease by 10 percentage points. year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +22%, Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +12%. reflecting a 7 percentage point improvement quarter- Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook decreases by a over-quarter, but a 9 percentage point decline year-over- considerable 11 percentage points, while year-over-year year. 9
  • 10. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Transportation & Utilities Services Solid hiring prospects are anticipated in the Services Transportation & Utilities industry sector employers industry sector, where employers report a Net expect an active labor market in Quarter 2 2009, Employment Outlook of +29% for Quarter 2 2009. reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. This Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook has strengthened by 6 reflects considerably stronger hiring intentions quarter- percentage points, although year-over-year it is weaker over-quarter, with the Outlook improving by 11 by a considerable 19 percentage points. percentage points, although year-over-year it is weaker by 14 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +20% for the second successive quarter, but weaker by 20 Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +20%, percentage points year-over-year. having improved by 7 percentage points quarter-over- quarter but declining by 13 percentage points year-over- year. 10
  • 11. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Wholesale & Retail Trade With a Net Employment Outlook of +18%, sector employers predict a favorable hiring climate for Quarter 2 2009. The Outlook improves by a moderate 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, although year- over-year, it weakens by 17 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +14%, and has improved by a slight 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook has declined by a considerable 17 percentage points. 11
  • 12. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Global Employment Outlook 12
  • 13. Over 72,000 employers have been interviewed across employers in Colombia, Peru and Costa Rica remain 34 countries and territories to measure anticipated somewhat optimistic. However, employers in the United employment trends* between April and June 2009. States report the gloomiest Outlook since the 1982 Employers in 13 of the 34 countries and territories recession, and Mexican employers report their least Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces optimistic Outlook – and the country's first negative in Quarter 2 2009. However, where year-over-year forecast – since Manpower began surveying there in comparisons can be made, hiring expectations are 2002. In the Asia Pacific region, job prospects are decidedly weaker in all countries and territories surveyed generally less optimistic with employers in all countries compared to 12 months ago. Notably, employers in 24 and territories surveyed except India reporting weaker countries and territories are reporting the weakest hiring hiring plans compared to the previous quarter. plans since the surveys were established there by Meanwhile, employee hiring plans weaken in all of the Manpower. Israeli employers also join the survey this countries and territories compared to one year ago. In quarter. the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, Despite weaker second-quarter forecasts, employment Outlooks decline from three months ago in 12 of 17 prospects are most favorable in India, South Africa, countries, with employers in Italy, the Czech Republic Colombia, Peru, Poland, China, the Netherlands and and South Africa anticipating a slightly improved hiring Costa Rica. Employer hiring expectations are weakest pace. Outlooks have declined in all 17 of the region's in Singapore, Ireland, Spain, New Zealand, Taiwan, Italy countries where year-over-year comparisons are and the United Kingdom. possible. On a regional basis, employment prospects are mixed, * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data but reveal a generally downward trend. In the Americas, where available. Survey Respondents by Region Research for the Quarter 2 2009 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying over 72,000 human resource directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide: 58% of the respondents came from eight countries in the Americas; 22% from 18 countries in EMEA: and 20% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific. (Quarterly Barometer Chart: Content on page 11 of this document) 13
  • 14. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India International Comparisons – Asia Pacific Nearly 15,000 interviews have been conducted across half of all employers indicating they will trim payrolls in the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring the next three months. Employers in Australia, Japan activity between April and June 2009. and New Zealand are reporting their first negative Outlooks since the surveys were established in these Employer hiring confidence continues to decline countries. throughout most of the region. Only employers in India and China expect to add employees in the quarter Employers in India and China are anticipating the most ahead, and only employers in India report improved favorable hiring activity in the region for the upcoming hiring plans compared to three months ago. The year- quarter, while those in Hong Kong, Japan, New over-year hiring pace is expected to be notably weaker Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan report the least throughout the region, with employers in six of the optimistic hiring intentions. Notably, employers in region's eight countries and territories reporting their Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and weakest hiring plans since the surveys began. Hiring Taiwan are reporting their least optimistic hiring plans intentions in Singapore continue to drop sharply, with since the surveys began there. Australia China Hong Kong India 14
  • 15. Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan 15
  • 16. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India International Comparisons – Americas Over 42,000 interviews have been conducted across Employers in Colombia are forecasting the most Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, optimistic hiring plans in the region, with employers in Mexico, Peru and the United States to measure Peru, Costa Rica and Canada also reporting positive but employment prospects for Quarter 2 2009. less optimistic Net Employment Outlooks for the quarter ahead. On the other hand, first-quarter hiring intentions While positive Net Employment Outlooks are reported in are weakest in Mexico, the United States, Argentina and four of the eight countries surveyed, the hiring pace is Guatemala; the Outlook from Mexican employers is the expected to slow from 12 months ago in each of the weakest since Manpower established the survey there seven countries where year-over-year data is available. in 2002. The Outlooks for Argentina, Colombia, Costa The hiring pace is also expected to slow in every Rica, Guatemala and Peru are also the least optimistic country compared to three months ago, with negative reported to date. hiring intentions reported in Mexico, the United States, Argentina and Guatemala. Argentina Canada Colombia Costa Rica 16
  • 17. Guatemala Mexico USA Peru 17
  • 18. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India International Comparisons – EMEA Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted with pessimism in the Finance and Manufacturing sectors is employers across 18 countries to measure anticipated contributing to fewer opportunities for job seekers – employment trends for Quarter 1 2009. Israeli particularly in the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland employers participate in the survey for the first time. where employer hiring plans are some of the weakest Of the countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East reported globally. and Africa (EMEA) region, only employers in South Employers in South Africa, Poland and the Netherlands Africa, Poland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, are forecasting the most favorable hiring activity, while Belgium and Norway are reporting positive, but modest, employers in Ireland and Spain are the least optimistic second-quarter hiring activity. However, in countries for the quarter ahead. Furthermore, employers in where year-over-year comparisons can be made, all France, Greece, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Romania, expect cutbacks. In comparison to three months ago, Spain and Sweden also report their least optimistic only Outlooks from Austria, France and South Africa are hiring plans since the surveys were launched in these relatively stable, while Italian employers report a slightly countries. improved but still negative forecast. Growing employer Austria Belgium Czech Republic France 18
  • 19. Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Romania 19
  • 20. South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland UK 20
  • 21. About the Survey Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in conducted quarterly to measure employers' intentions hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage to increase or decrease the number of employees in of employers expecting to see a decrease in their workforce during the next quarter. The survey has employment at their location in the next quarter. The been running for more than 45 years and is one of the result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. most trusted surveys of employment activity in the Net Employment Outlook world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking area of focus. the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage is the most extensive, forward-looking employment of employers expecting to see a decrease in survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment at their location in the next quarter. The employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to Seasonal Adjustment report on what occurred in the past. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France, derived all of its information from a single question. Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Independent: The survey is conducted with a Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United representative sample of employers from throughout the Kingdom and the United States to provide additional countries in which it is conducted. The survey insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it participants are not derived from Manpower's customer possible to review the data without the employment base. fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over 72,000 public and private employers across 34 time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to countries and territories to measure anticipated the data for other countries in the future, as more employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, analysis to be performed across specific sectors and Manpower adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of regions to provide more detailed information. seasonal adjustment for data. History of the Survey Methodology 1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market 1966 Manpower's United Kingdom operation research. The research team for the 33 countries and launches the equivalent of the United States territories where the survey is currently conducted survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey includes Manpower's internal research team and of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the same forward looking research format as Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be the United States survey and is the first of its representative of each national economy. The margin of kind in Europe. error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%. 1976 2nd generation of Manpower's Employment [Add national information and margin of error here] Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. Research methodology is updated Survey Question to evolve with advancements in the field of All employers participating in the survey worldwide are market research. 21
  • 22. 2002 Manpower United Kingdom's Quarterly Survey 2008 Manpower operations in Colombia, the Czech of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and an enhanced research methodology. Romania join the survey program. China and Manpower's operations in Mexico and Ireland Taiwan add seasonally adjusted data in the launch the survey in their respective countries. second quarter. India and Switzerland add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter. 2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the 2009 Manpower operations in Israel join the survey program to a total of 18 countries worldwide: program. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, About Manpower Inc. Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United employment services industry; creating and delivering States. services that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. Founded in 1948, the $22 billion 2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch company offers employers a range of services for the the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. entire employment and business cycle including 2005 Manpower operations in China, India, permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; Switzerland, and Taiwan launch the Manpower employee assessment and selection; training; Employment Outlook Survey. outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower's worldwide network of 4,400 offices in 82 2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica and Peru countries and territories enables the company to meet join the survey program. Surveys in Australia, the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, including small Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, well as the world's largest multinational corporations. Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain and The focus of Manpower's work is on raising productivity Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction third quarter. Manpower operations in South across their total workforce, enabling clients to Africa launch the Manpower Employment concentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Outlook Survey. Inc. operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right 2007 Manpower operations in Argentina join the Management. More information on Manpower Inc. is Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealand adds seasonally available at www.manpower.com. adjusted data in the first quarter. 22
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  • 24. Manpower Services India Pvt. Ltd. A-26/1, First Floor, Mohan Cooperative Industrial Estate, Mathura Road, New Delhi 110044 India Tel: +91 (11) 40555400 www.manpower.co.in © 2008, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.