SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 50
Baixar para ler offline
Managing Risks & Delivering Growth
                     In the Chemicals Industry

           The IFC Approach in Emerging Markets


IHS Chemicals Financial Forum        Anil Chandramani
New York                             Chief Investment Officer and
June 13, 2012                        Global Sector Lead, Chemicals & Fertilizers




                                                                       1
A Brief Introduction….




                         2
IFC is a Member of the World Bank Group

                   IBRD                          IDA                                               MIGA
                                                                             IFC               Multilateral
            International Bank             International
                                                                       International         Investment and
            for Reconstruction             Development
                                                                    Finance Corporation
             and Development                Association                                     Guarantee Agency

                 Est. 1945                   Est. 1960                   Est. 1956               Est. 1988


    Role:   To promote institutional,   To promote institutional,   To promote private      To reduce political
            legal and regulatory        legal and regulatory        sector development      investment risk
            reform                      reform

 Clients:   Governments of member       Governments of poorest      Private companies in    Foreign investors in
            countries with per capita   countries with per capita   member countries        member countries
            income between $1,025       income of less than
            and $6,055.                 $1,025

Products:   - Technical assistance      - Technical assistance      - Equity/Quasi-Equity   - Political Risk Insurance
            - Loans                     - Interest Free Loans       - Long-term Loans
            - Policy Advice             - Policy Advice             - Risk Management
                                                                    - Advisory Services




                 Shared Mission: To Promote Economic Development and Reduce Poverty
                                                                                                                     3
IFC – over $100 bn invested in Emerging Markets since 1956
 Largest multilateral source of loan/equity
 financing in the emerging markets – for the           IFC FY11 Highlights
 private sector

 Founded in 1956 with 184 member countries
                                                  Portfolio              ~$50 billion
                                                  Committed              ~$16 billion
 AAA rated by S&P and Moody’s
                                                  Mobilized              >$7 billion
 Equity, quasi-equity, loans, risk management     # of companies         ~2,000
 and local currency products
                                                  # of countries         129
 Loans may be foreign currency or, in several
 countries, may be local currency

 Takes market risk with no sovereign guarantees

 Promoter of environmental, social, and
 corporate governance standards

 Resources and know-how of a global
 development bank + flexibility of a merchant
 bank

 Holds equity in over 800 companies worldwide

                                                         IFC Fiscal year: July 1 – June 30
                                                                                             4
                                                                                                 4
IFC’s Global Reach
                •100+ country and regional offices worldwide



                                                            •Moscow

                                                                         •Almaty

                •Washington
                                                             •Istanbul
                                                   •Cairo                •New Delhi
•Mexico City
                                                                                      •Hong Kong
                                   •Dakar
                  •Port-of-Spain
                •Bogota
                                                             •Nairobi




               •São Paulo                   •Johannesburg

                       •Buenos Aires


                                            IFC HQ/Hub Offices
                                            IFC Operational Centers
                                            IFC Country Offices




                                                                                                   5
                                                                                                       5
IFC: An Integrated Approach to Financing & Risk Management

                                             Global Industry
                                                Expertise


               World Bank                                                 Both Equity
               Synergies /                                                 and Debt
                Economic                                                  Financing.
                 Analysis                                                 Long Term




                                                                               Mobilization incl.
              Risk                                                               Cooperation
        Management /                                                           Agreement with
         Political risk                                                          Multilaterals
          Mitigation



                                                              Short Term
                             Environmental                     Customer
                              and Social +                  Financing and
                                Advisory                  Supplier Financing
                                Services                                                            6
Presentation Highlights



1. The Global Perspective of Risks
                  Challenges for    IFC’s financing
                   the chemical       approach in
2. Petrochemicals: The Industry view Emerging
                      sector
                                        Markets

3. The IFC approach in Emerging Markets




                                                      7
Global Growth has weakened. Emerging Markets are
                          driving global growth

                                                                       Historical and Forecast ?? GDP Growth

6
                                                                                                                                   10
5
                                                                                                                                   8
4
                                                                                                                                   6

3                                                                                                                                  4

2                                                                                                                                  2

                                                                                                                                   0
1
                                                                                                                                   -2
0
                                                                                                                                   -4
-1
                                                                                                                                   -6
     2000
            2001
                   2002
                          2003
                                 2004
                                        2005
                                               2006
                                                      2007
                                                             2008
                                                                    2009
                                                                           2010
                                                                                  2011
                                                                                         2012
                                                                                                2013
                                                                                                       2014
                                                                                                              2015
                                                                                                                     2016
                                                                                                                            2017




                                                                                                                                        2000
                                                                                                                                        2001
                                                                                                                                        2002
                                                                                                                                        2003
                                                                                                                                        2004
                                                                                                                                        2005
                                                                                                                                        2006
                                                                                                                                        2007
                                                                                                                                        2008
                                                                                                                                        2009
                                                                                                                                        2010
                                                                                                                                        2011
                                                                                                                                        2012
                                                                                                                                        2013
                                                                                                                                        2014
                                                                                                                                        2015
                                                                                                                                        2016
                                                                                                                                        2017
                                                                                                                                        World
 Source: IMF                                                                                                                            Advanced economies
                                                                                                                                        Emerging and developing economies

                                                                                                                                                                  IFC Chemicals   8
Source: IMF
                                      Europe in Divergent Mode
              Impact on chemical Companies: Credit Squeeze, Higher Interest Rates, Refinancing Risks
 20                                                                         6
 15
 10                                                                         4
  5
  0                                                                         2
 -5
                                                                            0
-10
-15                                                                        -2
-20            Industrial Production Index                                                  GDP Growth
-25                                                                        -4
         (% Change/Same Period Prev. Year, Seas. Adj.)                                     (constant prices)
-30
                                                                           -6
      2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
                                                                                2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
          France                 Germany               Italy
          Spain                  United Kingdom        United States                       Germany                 European Union

                                                                     180
4.0                  Inflation                                       160         Government Net Debt
3.5                                                                  140                  (% of GDP)
              (average consumer prices)
3.0                                                                  120
                                                                     100
2.5
                                                                      80
2.0
                                                                      60
1.5                                                                   40
1.0                                                                   20
0.5                                                                    0
                                                                           1990
                                                                           1991
                                                                           1992
                                                                           1993
                                                                           1994
                                                                           1995
                                                                           1996
                                                                           1997
                                                                           1998
                                                                           1999
                                                                           2000
                                                                           2001
                                                                           2002
                                                                           2003
                                                                           2004
                                                                           2005
                                                                           2006
                                                                           2007
                                                                           2008
                                                                           2009
                                                                           2010
                                                                           2011
                                                                           2012
                                                                           2013
                                                                           2014
                                                                           2015
                                                                           2016
                                                                           2017
0.0
       2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011         France                    Germany                  Greece
                                                                                                                         IFC Chemicals   9
                                                                           Ireland                   Italy                   Japan
                  Germany                 European Union                   Portugal                  Spain                   United States
Unemployment has risen to the highest level since 1998.
      Youth unemployment is particularly high
      Youth Unemployment                                                        Unemployment Rate




                  25
                                      Unemployment Rate
                  20

                  15

                  10

                   5

                   0
                       2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011              IFC Chemicals    10
                             France        Germany          Italy       Spain                            Source: IMF
The crisis in the euro area has deepened and broadened.
Spreads on sovereign bonds of economies on the periphery
                   have reached new highs




Source: IMF




                                                 IFC Chemicals   11

                                                           Source: IMF
•Aging is increasing in the developed world,
       specially in Europe and Japan
          Old Age Dependency Ratios – Regions
          (Ratio of 65+ to 100 persons of working age 15-64)




                        Labor Force growth
                            (Rate per annum)




                                                               Source: Credit Suisse, UN
Political decisions impact the direction of crises

   US 2012

                   French Elections 2012:
                     There’s an increasing
                      concern on how Mr.
                      Hollande, the new
                        Socialist French
                    president, will manage
                    the delicate European
                             crisis.




                                  Greece Political Turmoil:
                                  After inconclusive general
                                    election in which both
                               mainstream pro-Europe parties
                                  saw a dramatic collapse in
                              support and anti-austerity groups
                                 increased their share of the
                                             vote.                IFC Chemicals   13
US economy is regaining some traction though concerns
               remain. Is the worst behind us?


                                                                               Rising US Inflation




                                                                                                          Source: IMF



 But, S&P’s cut US Government’s AAA rating one notch. Investor unease also due to concerns that the
Obama administration and Republicans in Congress might not agree to significant reductions in the deficit
 The Fiscal Cliff is just ahead ?
 China holds $3 trillion in USD reserves and may look to diversity its portfolio. Might affect interest rates
and exchange rates
                                                                                                     IFC Chemicals      14
A New Middle East & North Africa?
• Syria, Egypt, Libya, Sudan, South Sudan, Algeria, Tunisia, Yemen and Bahrain are experiencing political turmoil.
While these countries are not large producers of olefins or derivatives, their geopolitical affairs and proximity to major oil
and gas producers Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar impacted crude oil prices


                                                                                                    Proved   Production
                                                                       Country/Region             reserves        2009 % of World
                                                                       Algeri a                      12.2         77.6      2.0%
                                                                       Egypt                           4.4        35.3      0.9%
                                                                       Li bya                        44.3         77.1      2.0%
                                                                       Tuni s i a                      0.6        24.1      0.6%
                                                                       Total States in Conflict      61.5        214.1      5.6%
                                                                       Total Middle East            754.2      1,156.4     30.3%
                                                                       Total World               1,333.1       3,820.5
                                                                        Source: BP Statistics Review


                                                                          Indicates country experiencing current
                                                                          political unrest. In total, these
                                                                          countries represent about 5% of the
                                                                          world’s oil production
Chemicals and Petrochemicals
• North African countries undergoing political unrest have significant production of methane derivatives like nitrogen
fertilizers and methanol. In addition, Algeria is a major player in the international gas market and has pipelines that
connect directly with Europe
• Iran has been impeded by sanctions over its nuclear program, making it harder for Iranian firms to export chemicals
• Any disruption of the Suez Canal would disrupt petrochemical exports to Europe and global trade beyond petrochemicals
                                                                                                                            IFC Chemicals   15
How will tensions with Iran play out?

                                         GDP growth
                     2.5
                       2
                     1.5
                       1
                     0.5
                       0
                    -0.5
                      -1
                           2011   2012    2013   2014   2015      2016




                                                           IFC Chemicals   16
Arab --- Spring or Winter?




Political risks are high: But can you afford to neglect these markets ? Important to manage political risks

                                                                                                IFC Chemicals   17
Whither China: Soft landing?

                               China's GDP growth (% change)


                                            14.2
                                     12.7
                              11.3
                                                               10.4
                  10.0 10.1
                                                   9.6
            9.1                                          9.2          9.2
8.4                                                                               8.8   8.7   8.7   8.6   8.5
      8.3                                                                   8.2




2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



                                                                                                                          Source: IMF



                                                                                                                IFC Chemicals   18
Current Account Balance and
                                     Components (In % of GDP)




                                     China: Average Base Metals
                                   Consumption and GDP per Capita
                                                                    China current account surplus : Yuan versus Dollar




IFC Chemicals
19
                Source: IMF, SEI
Growth Scenarios




                              20
                   •Source: IMF
Emerging and developing economies account for
 about half of global output. Global production
     retreated during second half of 2011




                                                      Source: IMF



                                             IFC Chemicals   21
Oil price: another shock?




                            IFC Chemicals   22
Due to economical instability, volatility has been
                  on the rise




           Source: IMF                         IFC Chemicals   23
The Global Economy is Highly Volatile

     The 2008 Financial Crisis shook us out of
More than a decade of moderation and complacency.
    The world continues to change dramatically

     Important to Understand and Manage Risks
  Let your risk capabilities drive your strategy


                                                   IFC Chemicals   24
Presentation Highlights



1. The Global Perspective of Risks
                  Challenges for    IFC’s financing
                   the chemical       approach in
2. Petrochemicals: The Industry view Emerging
                      sector
                                        Markets

3. The IFC approach in Emerging Markets




                                                      25
Global Chemical Exports by
                                      Country 2010 (billions of dollars)                              Global Chemical Output by Region 2010
Basic Chemical and Plastics
(cumulative production growth)               Germany                               220                                 (in billion US$)
                                        United States                        171
                                                 China                 109                                                                      148
                                                                                                                                     157
                                                France               96                                                    264
                                              Belgium               90
                                                 Japan              85                                          US, 720
                                      United Kingdom               77                                 955
                                          Netherlands             71
                                          Switzerland            58                                               98
                                               Ireland          54                                                                                       4125
                                                   Italy        52
                                                 Korea
                                                                                         Japan, 338
                                                               48
                                               Taiwan          44                        China, 903
                                                Russia        37
                                            Singapore         35
                                                 Spain        34                            541
                                                  India      30
                                               Canada        27                          Asia-Pacific Western    North     Latin  Africa and   Central   World
                                              Sweden        20                                        Europe    America   America  Middle        and
                                                 Brazil    14                                                                        East      Eastern
                                             Australia     13                                                                                  Europe
                                               Mexico      11

The global chemical industry generated about $4Tr of sales in 2010, including Pharmaceuticals.
The global chemical sector has grown 24% in the last 10 years (2000-2010 CAGR).
9 countries accounts for 69% of chemicals output (China, US, Japan, Germany, India, Korea, France, Italy, Brazil).
Asia accounted for largest proportion of Global Chemical Turnover with 44%. China alone register 22% of global
market. Europe is the second largest market with 24% share of global shipment, Germany has the largest
European share with 6% of global market.
40.7% of Global Chemicals Output value is exported. Western Europe countries export 88% of its output value,
highlighting Germany which exports 96% of output, France 70%, UK 82%.                                                                                     26

                                                                                                                    Source: American Chemistry Council
Cyclicality: we have to live with it

Volume growth is volatile and pricing is often lagged to volumes




                Phosphatic Fertilizers : An example




                                                                                                            27

                                                                   Source: Fertilizer International, Deutsche Bank
The Industry is Capital Intensive
                                                                             2010 Global Chemical Capital Spending and
      Historical Global Chemical Capital Spending                                   as % of regional shipments
400
                                                                    400
350                  (billions of dollars)                          350                             (billions of dollars)                          19%
300                                                                 300
250                                                                 250

200                                                                 200
                                                                    150
150
                                                                    100
100                                                                                                                                    5%
                                                                    50                                                    4%
                                                                                 7%            4%          13%
50
                                                                     0
 0                                                                         Central and Latin America Africa and           North      Western    Asia Pacific
      2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010                 Eastern                 Middle East         America     Europe
          North America                Latin America                         Europe
          Western Europe               Central and Eastern Europe
          Africa and Middle East       Asia Pacific
                                                                                          Capital Spending vs. Shipments Growth
      A new Refinery costs $5-8bn, while a Polyetilene Plant              30%                                      (%)
      costs $2-4bn and Fertilizer Plant (Amonia, Urea) costs              20%
                                                                          10%
      $1-2bn
                                                                           0%
      2010 Capex was around $247bn in 2010
                                                                          -10%
                                                                          -20%
                                                                                      2001 2002 2003 2004 2005            2006    2007 2008 2009 2010
                                                                                        Growth Global Capital Spending           Growth Global Shipments

                                                                                                                                       Include Pharmaceuticals
                                                                                                                                                       28
Historically, the Basic Chemicals Index has outperformed the S&P 500 on a relative price basis and as of
     Dec. 2010 it was 4.5x higher than S&P 500
      On Fwd P/E basis, the Basic Chemicals Index provides 1.25x higher valuation than S&P 500




Basic Chemicals Index has Outperformed the
                   Market




                                                                                                                29
Shale Gas: A Game Changer for the Petrochemical Industry?
   World proved reserves of natural gas are about 6,609 tcf (Source: EIA, 2010) and world technically recoverable gas
  resources are about 16,000 tcf, largely excluding shale gas
   Adding the identified shale gas resources increases total world technically recoverable gas resources by more than 40% to
  22,600 tcf
   In the US, natural gas prices have decoupled from crude oil prices because of a plentiful supply of natural gas from shale
  and improvements in gas recovery technology (e.g. horizontal drilling)
   Given the price divergence between natural gas and crude oil, natural gas-based feedstock is becoming more cost
  competitive than oil-based feedstock




                                                                                                                                30

                                                                Source: Purvin & Gertz, IMF
Natural Gas prices by region (in $/MMBtu)


                                         UK: $6.56                         Russia: $8.38

                                    Belgium: $6.45
     US: $2.0                   Spain: $6.43                                Uzbekistan: $1.46
                                                                                                                Japan: $7.64
                                                                          Iran: $1.75

  Mexico: $3.73
          $3.7                                                    Saudi Arabia: $0.75

                                                 Nigeria: $1.50


                   Brazil: $10.00




                                Note: Uzbekistan price is for wet gas , i.e. natural gas before fractionation
                                Source: CMAI




Natural gas prices are regional and differ widely between countries
Uzbekistan, Mexico, and Nigeria have comparatively low gas prices
Low natural gas price regions tend to attract large investments
                                                                                                                         IFC Chemicals   31
32
Key Considerations for Managing Investment Risks
• Country and Political Risks -> Varies country to country: political instability, expropriation,
foreign exchange volatility


• Competitive Advantage -> Gross margins and cash costs


• Financial Structure-> Capital structure (debt/equity), debt servicing


• Project Profile -> Sector, export vs. import market orientation (=> forex generation) , size of
operations, complexity of unit, secured feedstock or off-take agreements, etc.


• Sponsor Profile -> Management and technical experience, ability to commit capital


• Mobilization -> Ability to raise capital (locally and internationally)


• Environmental & Social -> Company commitment to quality standards and best practices to
manage environmental and social impact
                                                                                                    33
Presentation Highlights



1. The Global Perspective of Risks
                  Challenges for    IFC’s financing
                   the chemical       approach in
2. Petrochemicals: The Industry view Emerging
                      sector
                                        Markets

3. The IFC approach in Emerging Markets




                                                      34
International                 Chemicals    Working
                 IFC Value     Sector
   Finance      Proposition                 with
 Corporation                  Activities     IFC




                                                     35
IFC’s Products and Services
         Senior                       Structured                   Mezzanine                       Private
          Debt                         Finance                      Finance                        Equity

• On-lending                   • Partial credit               • Convertible debt              • Common shares
                                 guarantees
• Liquidity management                                        • Subordinated debt             • Preferred shares
                               • Securitization
• Acquisition financing                                       • Other Tier II
                               • Bond underwriting              instruments
• Warehousing facilities
                               • Credit
• Syndicated loans
                                 Enhancement

              Global Trade                          Advisory                             Sustainable
            Finance Program                         Services                               Finance
    • $1 billion program                  • Corporate governance                   • Carbon finance
    • Guarantees to issuing banks         • Risk management                        • Renewable energy
    • 46 issuing banks in 24              • Small and medium business              • Supply chain financing
      countries                             banking
                                                                                   • Corporate governance
    • 92 confirming banks in 62           • Housing finance                          financing
      countries
                                          • Energy efficiency finance
    • $579 million of issued
                                          • Privatization
      guarantees in first 12 months
                                                                                                                   36
                                                                           For more information see Annex 1
IFC Value Added
 Long-term                            Global          Regional      Environmental     Sustainability
                  Country Risk
Competitive                          Chemicals       Knowledge       & Social Risk       Toolkit
                   Mitigation
 Financing                           Expertise                       Management


Equity            Government         50 Years of     Extensive      Advice on         Local Supplier
                  Relations: 184     Sector          Local Office   Environmental     Development
Fixed/Floating
                  Finance            Expertise       Network        and Social Best
Rates, Local                                                                          Environmental
                  Ministries form                                   Practices
Currencies                           Greenfield      Local                            / Social Advice
                  IFC’s BoD
                                                     Transaction    Equator
Up to 15 year                        Expansion/                                       Corporate
                  Neutral broker                     Experience     Principles
Loan Maturity                        Modernization                                    Governance
                  Role                                              Modeled after
                                                     World Bank
Flexible                             Corporate                      IFC Standards     Local
                  Reduced Risk of                    Synergies
Amortization                         Strategy                                         Economic
                  Expropriation,                                    Local
Profile                                                                               Development
                  Breach of          Access to                      Consultation
Catalyst for      Contract,          International                  and Disclosure    HIV/AIDS
other Investors   Convertibility     Investors                                        Prevention
and Lenders
                  World Bank         Technical                                        Community
Equity            Synergies          Advice                                           Development
Participation                                                                         Funding
                  Withholding Tax
Capital           Benefit
Mobilization
                  Partnership with
                  MIGA
                                                           37                                      37
Local Currency Financing
•IFC has committed over $6.0 billion of local currency loans in a variety of currencies
                                     since 1999
                         •(31 currencies currently available)




                                                                                           38
                                                        For more information see Annex 1
IFC Mobilization: (“B-Loan”) & Parallel Loans
                            Top 10 IFC B-Loan Participants
1. Calyon             3. Citigroup    5. ABN AMRO    7. Societe Generale     9. Natixis
2. Cordiant Capital   4. ING Bank     6. BayernLB    8. HSBC                10. KBC Finance Ireland

                                            Loan Agreement

                                                                    Borrower
                      IFC
                                            A + B Loans
      Participation
                             B Loan      •A loan is for IFC’s own account
      Agreement
                                         •B loan is for account of participant
                                          commercial banks
                                         •Only one loan agreement, signed by
                Participants              the borrower and IFC
                                         •IFC is the lender of record for the
                                          entire loan (A+B)
                                         •IFC Loans exempt from withholding tax                  39
MIGA’s Value Addition Proposition
Umbrella of deterrence                                           Facilitation of settlement of disputes
         MIGA’s Shareholders are the same as the Host                  •Host Country is motivated to find a solution
         Countries of investments
         Only a small proportion of MIGA-supported                     •Project sponsors and financiers have a vested
         projects encounter difficulties                               interest in continued success of project
MIGA guarantees provide downside protection on long-                   •5 claims paid out of 980 guarantees for total of
term investments                                                       616 projects since 1990
         Equity covered up to 90%
         Debt covered up to 95%
         Tenor covered up to 15-20 years

                               MIGA’s Risk Mitigation Solutions

                                     •Political (Country) Risk Insurance



                                                 Coverage
      Currency             Expropriation         War and Civil         Breach of            Non Honoring of
      Transfer                                   Disturbance           Contract               Sovereign
   Restriction and                                                                            Obligations
   Inconvertibility

                         •Guarantee holder can pick any combinations of coverage


                                                                                                                           40
                                                                         For more information see Annex 1
Top 6 Reasons Why Clients Choose IFC


          70%
          60%
          50%
Percent




          40%
          30%
          20%
          10%
          0%
                Maturity   Expertise   Long-term   Stamp of    Global    Bring in other
                                        partner    Approval   Presence    sources of
                                                                            finance



                                             Reasons




                                                                                          IFC Chemicals   41
International                                                 Chemicals                           Working
                                   IFC Value
    Finance                                                     Sector                              with
                                   Proposition
  Corporation                                                  Activities                            IFC



Note: IFC’s “Chemicals & Fertilizers ” Business covers Refining, Petrochemicals, Fertilizers and
   Chemicals, both Organic and Inorganic as well as Chemicals Infrastructure and Retailing




                                                                                                             42
Portfolio in 2010 – By Product                   Equity Portfolio – By Region



     Chemicals and Fertilizers                     Equity Portfolio by Region
            Portfolio



          Other             Loans
        products             32%
          38%
                   Equity
                    30%




Other products: Risk Management and Guarantees


                                                                                43
                                                                                     43
IFC’s Chemicals, Petrochemicals, & Fertilizers
                    Portfolio – 2011
                          ~$1.5 billion committed on IFC’s account
                          Catalyzed over ~$17 billion in project investments
                      By Sector                                                         By Region

                                  Agrochem
                                     5%


       Other                                                                                  South Asia
   Infrastructure                    Petrochemicals                     Middle East & North      19%
        28%                               23%                               Africa 30%
                                                                                                           East Asia
                                                                                                             15%
Refineries
                                       Fertilizers                       Europe
  10%
                                          18%                             10%
                    Inorganic
                      16%



                                                                        Latin America                  Sub-Saharan
                                                                         & Caribbean                      Africa
                                                                              8%                           18%




                                             For more information please see Annex 2
                                                                                                                       44
IFC’s Experience in Refining and Petrochemicals Sector
     Petrochemicals                                  Fertilizers                                 Others/Infrastructure

Continental Carbon of India Ltd.              Engro Corporate, Pakistan                        JPMC Terminal, Jordan
NPC, Thailand: gas cracker                    ICS, Senegal: phosphoric acid                    IFC / SCB Facility
Copesul, Brazil: naptha cracker               Indo Jordan, Jordan: phosphoric acid             Engro Vopak, Pakistan: Chemical terminal
Copene, Brazil: naptha cracker                Engro Chemicals, Pakistan: ammonia               Messer, Trinidad & Tobago: industrial gases
Samsung, Korea: petrochem/aromatics           Trigen II, Trinidad & Tobago: ammonia            Opet Petrolculuk, Turkey: fuel distribution
  complex restructuring                       Fosfertil, Brazil: SSP, TSP, MSP, DAP            Antai, China: metallurgical coke
HMC Polymers, Thailand: PP                    GNFC, India: ammonia, urea                       Ecogreen I & II, Indonesia: oleochemicals
Petroken, Argentina: PP                       Deepak Nitrate, India: ammonia,Urea,DAP          Darong, China: specialty chemicals
Politeno, Brazil: PE                          PQB, Bolivia: ammonium nitrate                   UPL, India: pesticides, herbicides
Ipiranga I & II, Brazil: PE, PP               KuAz, Russia: ammonia, urea                      Gapco, Kenya: storage terminal
Indelpro, Mexico                              Indo Egyptian, Egypt: phosphoric acid            Zhong Chen, China: storage terminal
Profalca, Venezuela: PP                       Koyo, China: ammonia, urea                       Galnaftogaz, Ukraine: petroleum retailer
Grupo Zuliano, Venezuela: petrochem complex   Abocol, Colombia: ammonium nitrate,NPK           Dongyue, China: fluorine chemicals,
Suzhou, China: PVC                            JIFCO, Jordan: DAP                                   organicsilicone
Vinythai, Thailand: PVC                       JPMC, Jordan: phosphate                          Atul, India: Dye and pesticide intermediates
Engro PVC, Pakistan: PVC                      Engro Emergency, Pakistan: urea                  Hikal, India: Pharmaceuticals
Tuntex, Thailand: PTA                         OCI Egypt: Corporate loan for fertilizers        Vinati Organics (JV), India: specialty chemicals
Rhodiaco, Brazil: PTA                         Paradeep Phosphates, India: DAP
Rhodia-ster, Brazil: PTA/PET                  Itafos Brazil: PhosRock & Acid                            Refineries
Oxiteno, Brazil: EO/MEG                           Inorganic Chemicals
Girsa, Mexico: EO/MEG                                                                          ERC Refinery, Egypt
Pralca, Venezuela: MEG                        Engro Polymers, Pakistan                         PSPC (Shell), Philippines
Gidesa, México: EG, PS                        Kanoria Vizag, India                             Star Petroleum (Caltex), Thailand
Trikem, Brazil: PS                            Atul Ltd, India                                  Refisan (Pecom), Argentina
Innova, Brazil: styrene/PS                    Alexandria Carbon Black, Egypt: Carbon black     Petrotel-Lukoil, Romania
Daaboul, Syria: LAB                           Continental Carbon (CCIL), India: Carbon Black   Alliance Oil Company, Russia
Jose Methanol, Venezuela: methanol            Maanshan I & II, China: Carbon black
KuAz, Russia: caprolactam                     Rain Calcining, India: calcined carbon
Eleme Petrochemicals, Nigeria: PE, PP         Peroxythai, Thailand: hydrogen peroxide
Xinao, China: Coal-to-DME                     Chengdu, China: potassium hydroxide & PVC
DCM Shiram, India: PVC                        Prodesal, Colombia: caustic soda, chlorine
Himadri, India: Carbon Pitch, carbon black    Meghmani Finechem, India: ChlorAlkali
Galaxy Chemicals, India: Surfactants          Magadi Soda, Kenya: soda ash
EIPET, Egypt: PET                             Lukovac Soda, Bosnia: soda ash
                                              Kanoria Chemicals, India: ChlorAlkali
                                                                                                                                       45
                                              Jiuda Salt, China: industrial salt
                                                                                   For more information see Annex 2
International                 Chemicals    Working
                IFC Value
   Finance                     Sector       with
                Proposition
 Corporation                  Activities     IFC




                                                     46
How We Finance Projects

  Project Type                                 IFC Investment

                                               Up to 35% of project cost
Greenfield, total cost
                                               for IFC’s account
less than $50 million
                                               Up to 25% of project cost
Greenfield, total cost
                                               for IFC’s account
more than $50 million
                                               Up to 50% of project cost
Expansion or rehabilitation
                                               for IFC’s account
Greenfield, expansion,
                                               100% project cost for IFC
rehabilitation
                                               and participating banks’
                                               accounts
 •Umbrella for participants in IFC’s syndication program: IFC lender of
  record, immunity from taxation and provisioning requirements.
 •IFC’s total financing must be less than 25% of total company
  capitalization, and IFC does not manage or own largest stake.

                                                                           47
Approaching IFC

• Foreign or Domestic Sponsors

        New venture or expansion; private sector majority ownership only

        Project must be developmentally sound and commercially viable

• Sponsor Commitment is Required

        Equity participation; pre-completion support/guarantees

• Submit Preliminary Business Plan or Feasibility Study

        Brief project description, incl. technical feasibility and market study

        Information on sponsors and operator

        Environmental studies

        Information on requirements, financing plan and cash flow projections


                                                                                  48
IFC’s Project Cycle
                                                                            Internal
 Early Review       Due Diligence       Negotiation       Disclosure      Approvals and         Disbursement
                                                                          Commitment


• Client needs      • Assessment of   • Terms and       • Environmental   • Board              • Fulfillment of
  determined          business          conditions of     and social        consideration        conditions of
                      potential,        the IFC           information                            disbursement
• Contribution                                                            • Board approval
                      risks,            investment        disclosed
  of project to                                                                                • IFC funds
                      opportunities                                       • Legal review
  development                         • Action plan     • Opportunity                            disbursed
  assessed          • Financial and     agreed            for public      • Signing of legal
                      economic                            comment           documents
• Project
                      Evaluation
  screened for
  potential risks   • Compliance
  & issues            with IFC’s
                      social and
• Site visit
                      environmental
• Mandate             performance
  letter              standards
                      reviewed



                       We Agree on a Specific Timeline to Meet Client’s Needs
                                                                                                             49
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION
             How to contact us:

             Anil Chandramani
           Chief Investment Officer &
   Global Sector Lead, Chemicals & Fertilizers

                Washington DC

        Phone: +1-202-473-4081
                +1-202-473-
      E-mail: achandramani@ifc.org
                                                 50

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

INDEV308 Class 5 - Financing Considerations for Social Enterprise
INDEV308 Class 5 - Financing Considerations for Social EnterpriseINDEV308 Class 5 - Financing Considerations for Social Enterprise
INDEV308 Class 5 - Financing Considerations for Social EnterpriseSocial Entrepreneurship
 
Inter bank unrestricted wakalah - mr. ijlal alvi
Inter bank unrestricted wakalah - mr. ijlal alviInter bank unrestricted wakalah - mr. ijlal alvi
Inter bank unrestricted wakalah - mr. ijlal alviUmer Ahmed, CIFP
 
ENTR4800 Class 5 (Part 2): Financing Considerations for Social Enterprises
ENTR4800 Class 5 (Part 2): Financing Considerations  for Social EnterprisesENTR4800 Class 5 (Part 2): Financing Considerations  for Social Enterprises
ENTR4800 Class 5 (Part 2): Financing Considerations for Social EnterprisesSocial Entrepreneurship
 
Islamic finance (Revolution in the Making) 2014
Islamic finance (Revolution in the Making) 2014Islamic finance (Revolution in the Making) 2014
Islamic finance (Revolution in the Making) 2014Adel Abouhana
 
Recruitment Powerpoint Presentation New
Recruitment Powerpoint Presentation NewRecruitment Powerpoint Presentation New
Recruitment Powerpoint Presentation NewYuchuHe
 
The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...
The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...
The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...Chris Dane
 
Mutal Funds Market In Pakistan
Mutal Funds Market In PakistanMutal Funds Market In Pakistan
Mutal Funds Market In PakistanSVIM
 
International financial institutions
International financial institutionsInternational financial institutions
International financial institutionsPooja Rani
 
Geothermal Geothermal …an IFC perspective
Geothermal Geothermal …an IFC perspectiveGeothermal Geothermal …an IFC perspective
Geothermal Geothermal …an IFC perspectiveSuat Furkan ISIK
 
Mfm unit 1
Mfm unit 1Mfm unit 1
Mfm unit 1amita
 
Financial institutions in international trade world bank
Financial institutions in international trade   world bankFinancial institutions in international trade   world bank
Financial institutions in international trade world bankMohammed Jasir PV
 
Idc moroasereme ntsoane 2010
Idc moroasereme ntsoane 2010Idc moroasereme ntsoane 2010
Idc moroasereme ntsoane 2010UNIDO SA
 
Gwinner IFC AUHF Oct 2012
Gwinner IFC AUHF Oct 2012Gwinner IFC AUHF Oct 2012
Gwinner IFC AUHF Oct 2012Gwinner
 
Takaful presentation by muhammad ashfaq
Takaful presentation by muhammad ashfaqTakaful presentation by muhammad ashfaq
Takaful presentation by muhammad ashfaqasfhaq
 
[ARCHIVE] Sustainable economy in 2040: A roadmap for capital markets, executi...
[ARCHIVE] Sustainable economy in 2040: A roadmap for capital markets, executi...[ARCHIVE] Sustainable economy in 2040: A roadmap for capital markets, executi...
[ARCHIVE] Sustainable economy in 2040: A roadmap for capital markets, executi...Aviva plc
 

Mais procurados (18)

INDEV308 Class 5 - Financing Considerations for Social Enterprise
INDEV308 Class 5 - Financing Considerations for Social EnterpriseINDEV308 Class 5 - Financing Considerations for Social Enterprise
INDEV308 Class 5 - Financing Considerations for Social Enterprise
 
Inter bank unrestricted wakalah - mr. ijlal alvi
Inter bank unrestricted wakalah - mr. ijlal alviInter bank unrestricted wakalah - mr. ijlal alvi
Inter bank unrestricted wakalah - mr. ijlal alvi
 
ENTR4800 Class 5 (Part 2): Financing Considerations for Social Enterprises
ENTR4800 Class 5 (Part 2): Financing Considerations  for Social EnterprisesENTR4800 Class 5 (Part 2): Financing Considerations  for Social Enterprises
ENTR4800 Class 5 (Part 2): Financing Considerations for Social Enterprises
 
Islamic finance (Revolution in the Making) 2014
Islamic finance (Revolution in the Making) 2014Islamic finance (Revolution in the Making) 2014
Islamic finance (Revolution in the Making) 2014
 
Recruitment Powerpoint Presentation New
Recruitment Powerpoint Presentation NewRecruitment Powerpoint Presentation New
Recruitment Powerpoint Presentation New
 
The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...
The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...
The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...
 
Venture capital
Venture capitalVenture capital
Venture capital
 
Mutal Funds Market In Pakistan
Mutal Funds Market In PakistanMutal Funds Market In Pakistan
Mutal Funds Market In Pakistan
 
International financial institutions
International financial institutionsInternational financial institutions
International financial institutions
 
Geothermal Geothermal …an IFC perspective
Geothermal Geothermal …an IFC perspectiveGeothermal Geothermal …an IFC perspective
Geothermal Geothermal …an IFC perspective
 
Alhuda CIBE - A Review of Takaful by Prof. Khawaja Ahmed Saeed
Alhuda CIBE - A Review of Takaful by Prof. Khawaja Ahmed SaeedAlhuda CIBE - A Review of Takaful by Prof. Khawaja Ahmed Saeed
Alhuda CIBE - A Review of Takaful by Prof. Khawaja Ahmed Saeed
 
Mfm unit 1
Mfm unit 1Mfm unit 1
Mfm unit 1
 
Financial institutions in international trade world bank
Financial institutions in international trade   world bankFinancial institutions in international trade   world bank
Financial institutions in international trade world bank
 
takaful
takafultakaful
takaful
 
Idc moroasereme ntsoane 2010
Idc moroasereme ntsoane 2010Idc moroasereme ntsoane 2010
Idc moroasereme ntsoane 2010
 
Gwinner IFC AUHF Oct 2012
Gwinner IFC AUHF Oct 2012Gwinner IFC AUHF Oct 2012
Gwinner IFC AUHF Oct 2012
 
Takaful presentation by muhammad ashfaq
Takaful presentation by muhammad ashfaqTakaful presentation by muhammad ashfaq
Takaful presentation by muhammad ashfaq
 
[ARCHIVE] Sustainable economy in 2040: A roadmap for capital markets, executi...
[ARCHIVE] Sustainable economy in 2040: A roadmap for capital markets, executi...[ARCHIVE] Sustainable economy in 2040: A roadmap for capital markets, executi...
[ARCHIVE] Sustainable economy in 2040: A roadmap for capital markets, executi...
 

Semelhante a Managing Risks & Delivering Growth in the Chemicals Industry

International Finance Corporation (IFC) - investing in the mining sector in e...
International Finance Corporation (IFC) - investing in the mining sector in e...International Finance Corporation (IFC) - investing in the mining sector in e...
International Finance Corporation (IFC) - investing in the mining sector in e...Karsten Fuelster
 
Naat bat louisville, ky 07 sep 2011 - 11 09 05 ep
Naat bat louisville, ky   07 sep 2011 - 11 09 05 epNaat bat louisville, ky   07 sep 2011 - 11 09 05 ep
Naat bat louisville, ky 07 sep 2011 - 11 09 05 epEmmanuel Pouliquen
 
International finance system unit-1
International finance system unit-1International finance system unit-1
International finance system unit-1Eshanth Agarwal
 
commercial investments in microfinance
commercial investments in microfinancecommercial investments in microfinance
commercial investments in microfinanceJorge Berezo
 
ANIS2011_SILAB2 _Belinda_Drew
ANIS2011_SILAB2 _Belinda_DrewANIS2011_SILAB2 _Belinda_Drew
ANIS2011_SILAB2 _Belinda_Drewngoinnovation
 
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIES
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIESENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIES
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIESCITIZEN ACT
 
International business
International businessInternational business
International businessvaruna177
 
Ziad Badr: IFC operation and strategy in iraq
Ziad Badr: IFC operation and strategy in iraqZiad Badr: IFC operation and strategy in iraq
Ziad Badr: IFC operation and strategy in iraqOECDGlobalRelations
 
Microfinance Investment: Due Diligence for Financial and Social Return
Microfinance Investment: Due Diligence for Financial and Social ReturnMicrofinance Investment: Due Diligence for Financial and Social Return
Microfinance Investment: Due Diligence for Financial and Social ReturnTakeAction
 
Mitigating Currency Risk for Investing in MFIs in Developing Countries
Mitigating Currency Risk for Investing in MFIs in Developing CountriesMitigating Currency Risk for Investing in MFIs in Developing Countries
Mitigating Currency Risk for Investing in MFIs in Developing CountriesAndrew Tulchin
 
National capital markets & international financing
National capital markets & international financingNational capital markets & international financing
National capital markets & international financingGalih Honggo Baskoro
 
Nazrul I. Chowdhury_Innovative Practices for Industrialized Nations
Nazrul I. Chowdhury_Innovative Practices for Industrialized NationsNazrul I. Chowdhury_Innovative Practices for Industrialized Nations
Nazrul I. Chowdhury_Innovative Practices for Industrialized NationsMicrocredit Summit Campaign
 
Funding Your Social Enterprise: Approaches & Resources for Nonprofits
Funding Your Social Enterprise: Approaches & Resources for NonprofitsFunding Your Social Enterprise: Approaches & Resources for Nonprofits
Funding Your Social Enterprise: Approaches & Resources for NonprofitsMargaret Stangl
 
An Understanding Of Financial Communications And Investor Relations
An Understanding Of Financial Communications And Investor RelationsAn Understanding Of Financial Communications And Investor Relations
An Understanding Of Financial Communications And Investor RelationsMSL
 

Semelhante a Managing Risks & Delivering Growth in the Chemicals Industry (20)

International Finance Corporation (IFC) - investing in the mining sector in e...
International Finance Corporation (IFC) - investing in the mining sector in e...International Finance Corporation (IFC) - investing in the mining sector in e...
International Finance Corporation (IFC) - investing in the mining sector in e...
 
Final ppt ifc1st fase
Final ppt ifc1st faseFinal ppt ifc1st fase
Final ppt ifc1st fase
 
Naat bat louisville, ky 07 sep 2011 - 11 09 05 ep
Naat bat louisville, ky   07 sep 2011 - 11 09 05 epNaat bat louisville, ky   07 sep 2011 - 11 09 05 ep
Naat bat louisville, ky 07 sep 2011 - 11 09 05 ep
 
Ifc final
Ifc finalIfc final
Ifc final
 
Wrold bank
Wrold bankWrold bank
Wrold bank
 
Imf & world bank
Imf & world bankImf & world bank
Imf & world bank
 
International finance system unit-1
International finance system unit-1International finance system unit-1
International finance system unit-1
 
commercial investments in microfinance
commercial investments in microfinancecommercial investments in microfinance
commercial investments in microfinance
 
ANIS2011_SILAB2 _Belinda_Drew
ANIS2011_SILAB2 _Belinda_DrewANIS2011_SILAB2 _Belinda_Drew
ANIS2011_SILAB2 _Belinda_Drew
 
Fasilitas Dan Prosedur Pembiayaan IDB
Fasilitas Dan Prosedur Pembiayaan IDBFasilitas Dan Prosedur Pembiayaan IDB
Fasilitas Dan Prosedur Pembiayaan IDB
 
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIES
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIESENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIES
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIES
 
World bank
World bankWorld bank
World bank
 
International business
International businessInternational business
International business
 
Ziad Badr: IFC operation and strategy in iraq
Ziad Badr: IFC operation and strategy in iraqZiad Badr: IFC operation and strategy in iraq
Ziad Badr: IFC operation and strategy in iraq
 
Microfinance Investment: Due Diligence for Financial and Social Return
Microfinance Investment: Due Diligence for Financial and Social ReturnMicrofinance Investment: Due Diligence for Financial and Social Return
Microfinance Investment: Due Diligence for Financial and Social Return
 
Mitigating Currency Risk for Investing in MFIs in Developing Countries
Mitigating Currency Risk for Investing in MFIs in Developing CountriesMitigating Currency Risk for Investing in MFIs in Developing Countries
Mitigating Currency Risk for Investing in MFIs in Developing Countries
 
National capital markets & international financing
National capital markets & international financingNational capital markets & international financing
National capital markets & international financing
 
Nazrul I. Chowdhury_Innovative Practices for Industrialized Nations
Nazrul I. Chowdhury_Innovative Practices for Industrialized NationsNazrul I. Chowdhury_Innovative Practices for Industrialized Nations
Nazrul I. Chowdhury_Innovative Practices for Industrialized Nations
 
Funding Your Social Enterprise: Approaches & Resources for Nonprofits
Funding Your Social Enterprise: Approaches & Resources for NonprofitsFunding Your Social Enterprise: Approaches & Resources for Nonprofits
Funding Your Social Enterprise: Approaches & Resources for Nonprofits
 
An Understanding Of Financial Communications And Investor Relations
An Understanding Of Financial Communications And Investor RelationsAn Understanding Of Financial Communications And Investor Relations
An Understanding Of Financial Communications And Investor Relations
 

Managing Risks & Delivering Growth in the Chemicals Industry

  • 1. Managing Risks & Delivering Growth In the Chemicals Industry The IFC Approach in Emerging Markets IHS Chemicals Financial Forum Anil Chandramani New York Chief Investment Officer and June 13, 2012 Global Sector Lead, Chemicals & Fertilizers 1
  • 3. IFC is a Member of the World Bank Group IBRD IDA MIGA IFC Multilateral International Bank International International Investment and for Reconstruction Development Finance Corporation and Development Association Guarantee Agency Est. 1945 Est. 1960 Est. 1956 Est. 1988 Role: To promote institutional, To promote institutional, To promote private To reduce political legal and regulatory legal and regulatory sector development investment risk reform reform Clients: Governments of member Governments of poorest Private companies in Foreign investors in countries with per capita countries with per capita member countries member countries income between $1,025 income of less than and $6,055. $1,025 Products: - Technical assistance - Technical assistance - Equity/Quasi-Equity - Political Risk Insurance - Loans - Interest Free Loans - Long-term Loans - Policy Advice - Policy Advice - Risk Management - Advisory Services Shared Mission: To Promote Economic Development and Reduce Poverty 3
  • 4. IFC – over $100 bn invested in Emerging Markets since 1956 Largest multilateral source of loan/equity financing in the emerging markets – for the IFC FY11 Highlights private sector Founded in 1956 with 184 member countries Portfolio ~$50 billion Committed ~$16 billion AAA rated by S&P and Moody’s Mobilized >$7 billion Equity, quasi-equity, loans, risk management # of companies ~2,000 and local currency products # of countries 129 Loans may be foreign currency or, in several countries, may be local currency Takes market risk with no sovereign guarantees Promoter of environmental, social, and corporate governance standards Resources and know-how of a global development bank + flexibility of a merchant bank Holds equity in over 800 companies worldwide IFC Fiscal year: July 1 – June 30 4 4
  • 5. IFC’s Global Reach •100+ country and regional offices worldwide •Moscow •Almaty •Washington •Istanbul •Cairo •New Delhi •Mexico City •Hong Kong •Dakar •Port-of-Spain •Bogota •Nairobi •São Paulo •Johannesburg •Buenos Aires IFC HQ/Hub Offices IFC Operational Centers IFC Country Offices 5 5
  • 6. IFC: An Integrated Approach to Financing & Risk Management Global Industry Expertise World Bank Both Equity Synergies / and Debt Economic Financing. Analysis Long Term Mobilization incl. Risk Cooperation Management / Agreement with Political risk Multilaterals Mitigation Short Term Environmental Customer and Social + Financing and Advisory Supplier Financing Services 6
  • 7. Presentation Highlights 1. The Global Perspective of Risks Challenges for IFC’s financing the chemical approach in 2. Petrochemicals: The Industry view Emerging sector Markets 3. The IFC approach in Emerging Markets 7
  • 8. Global Growth has weakened. Emerging Markets are driving global growth Historical and Forecast ?? GDP Growth 6 10 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 2 0 1 -2 0 -4 -1 -6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 World Source: IMF Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies IFC Chemicals 8
  • 9. Source: IMF Europe in Divergent Mode Impact on chemical Companies: Credit Squeeze, Higher Interest Rates, Refinancing Risks 20 6 15 10 4 5 0 2 -5 0 -10 -15 -2 -20 Industrial Production Index GDP Growth -25 -4 (% Change/Same Period Prev. Year, Seas. Adj.) (constant prices) -30 -6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom United States Germany European Union 180 4.0 Inflation 160 Government Net Debt 3.5 140 (% of GDP) (average consumer prices) 3.0 120 100 2.5 80 2.0 60 1.5 40 1.0 20 0.5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 France Germany Greece IFC Chemicals 9 Ireland Italy Japan Germany European Union Portugal Spain United States
  • 10. Unemployment has risen to the highest level since 1998. Youth unemployment is particularly high Youth Unemployment Unemployment Rate 25 Unemployment Rate 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 IFC Chemicals 10 France Germany Italy Spain Source: IMF
  • 11. The crisis in the euro area has deepened and broadened. Spreads on sovereign bonds of economies on the periphery have reached new highs Source: IMF IFC Chemicals 11 Source: IMF
  • 12. •Aging is increasing in the developed world, specially in Europe and Japan Old Age Dependency Ratios – Regions (Ratio of 65+ to 100 persons of working age 15-64) Labor Force growth (Rate per annum) Source: Credit Suisse, UN
  • 13. Political decisions impact the direction of crises US 2012 French Elections 2012: There’s an increasing concern on how Mr. Hollande, the new Socialist French president, will manage the delicate European crisis. Greece Political Turmoil: After inconclusive general election in which both mainstream pro-Europe parties saw a dramatic collapse in support and anti-austerity groups increased their share of the vote. IFC Chemicals 13
  • 14. US economy is regaining some traction though concerns remain. Is the worst behind us? Rising US Inflation Source: IMF But, S&P’s cut US Government’s AAA rating one notch. Investor unease also due to concerns that the Obama administration and Republicans in Congress might not agree to significant reductions in the deficit The Fiscal Cliff is just ahead ? China holds $3 trillion in USD reserves and may look to diversity its portfolio. Might affect interest rates and exchange rates IFC Chemicals 14
  • 15. A New Middle East & North Africa? • Syria, Egypt, Libya, Sudan, South Sudan, Algeria, Tunisia, Yemen and Bahrain are experiencing political turmoil. While these countries are not large producers of olefins or derivatives, their geopolitical affairs and proximity to major oil and gas producers Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar impacted crude oil prices Proved Production Country/Region reserves 2009 % of World Algeri a 12.2 77.6 2.0% Egypt 4.4 35.3 0.9% Li bya 44.3 77.1 2.0% Tuni s i a 0.6 24.1 0.6% Total States in Conflict 61.5 214.1 5.6% Total Middle East 754.2 1,156.4 30.3% Total World 1,333.1 3,820.5 Source: BP Statistics Review Indicates country experiencing current political unrest. In total, these countries represent about 5% of the world’s oil production Chemicals and Petrochemicals • North African countries undergoing political unrest have significant production of methane derivatives like nitrogen fertilizers and methanol. In addition, Algeria is a major player in the international gas market and has pipelines that connect directly with Europe • Iran has been impeded by sanctions over its nuclear program, making it harder for Iranian firms to export chemicals • Any disruption of the Suez Canal would disrupt petrochemical exports to Europe and global trade beyond petrochemicals IFC Chemicals 15
  • 16. How will tensions with Iran play out? GDP growth 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 IFC Chemicals 16
  • 17. Arab --- Spring or Winter? Political risks are high: But can you afford to neglect these markets ? Important to manage political risks IFC Chemicals 17
  • 18. Whither China: Soft landing? China's GDP growth (% change) 14.2 12.7 11.3 10.4 10.0 10.1 9.6 9.1 9.2 9.2 8.4 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: IMF IFC Chemicals 18
  • 19. Current Account Balance and Components (In % of GDP) China: Average Base Metals Consumption and GDP per Capita China current account surplus : Yuan versus Dollar IFC Chemicals 19 Source: IMF, SEI
  • 20. Growth Scenarios 20 •Source: IMF
  • 21. Emerging and developing economies account for about half of global output. Global production retreated during second half of 2011 Source: IMF IFC Chemicals 21
  • 22. Oil price: another shock? IFC Chemicals 22
  • 23. Due to economical instability, volatility has been on the rise Source: IMF IFC Chemicals 23
  • 24. The Global Economy is Highly Volatile The 2008 Financial Crisis shook us out of More than a decade of moderation and complacency. The world continues to change dramatically Important to Understand and Manage Risks Let your risk capabilities drive your strategy IFC Chemicals 24
  • 25. Presentation Highlights 1. The Global Perspective of Risks Challenges for IFC’s financing the chemical approach in 2. Petrochemicals: The Industry view Emerging sector Markets 3. The IFC approach in Emerging Markets 25
  • 26. Global Chemical Exports by Country 2010 (billions of dollars) Global Chemical Output by Region 2010 Basic Chemical and Plastics (cumulative production growth) Germany 220 (in billion US$) United States 171 China 109 148 157 France 96 264 Belgium 90 Japan 85 US, 720 United Kingdom 77 955 Netherlands 71 Switzerland 58 98 Ireland 54 4125 Italy 52 Korea Japan, 338 48 Taiwan 44 China, 903 Russia 37 Singapore 35 Spain 34 541 India 30 Canada 27 Asia-Pacific Western North Latin Africa and Central World Sweden 20 Europe America America Middle and Brazil 14 East Eastern Australia 13 Europe Mexico 11 The global chemical industry generated about $4Tr of sales in 2010, including Pharmaceuticals. The global chemical sector has grown 24% in the last 10 years (2000-2010 CAGR). 9 countries accounts for 69% of chemicals output (China, US, Japan, Germany, India, Korea, France, Italy, Brazil). Asia accounted for largest proportion of Global Chemical Turnover with 44%. China alone register 22% of global market. Europe is the second largest market with 24% share of global shipment, Germany has the largest European share with 6% of global market. 40.7% of Global Chemicals Output value is exported. Western Europe countries export 88% of its output value, highlighting Germany which exports 96% of output, France 70%, UK 82%. 26 Source: American Chemistry Council
  • 27. Cyclicality: we have to live with it Volume growth is volatile and pricing is often lagged to volumes Phosphatic Fertilizers : An example 27 Source: Fertilizer International, Deutsche Bank
  • 28. The Industry is Capital Intensive 2010 Global Chemical Capital Spending and Historical Global Chemical Capital Spending as % of regional shipments 400 400 350 (billions of dollars) 350 (billions of dollars) 19% 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 5% 50 4% 7% 4% 13% 50 0 0 Central and Latin America Africa and North Western Asia Pacific 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Eastern Middle East America Europe North America Latin America Europe Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Africa and Middle East Asia Pacific Capital Spending vs. Shipments Growth A new Refinery costs $5-8bn, while a Polyetilene Plant 30% (%) costs $2-4bn and Fertilizer Plant (Amonia, Urea) costs 20% 10% $1-2bn 0% 2010 Capex was around $247bn in 2010 -10% -20% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Growth Global Capital Spending Growth Global Shipments Include Pharmaceuticals 28
  • 29. Historically, the Basic Chemicals Index has outperformed the S&P 500 on a relative price basis and as of Dec. 2010 it was 4.5x higher than S&P 500 On Fwd P/E basis, the Basic Chemicals Index provides 1.25x higher valuation than S&P 500 Basic Chemicals Index has Outperformed the Market 29
  • 30. Shale Gas: A Game Changer for the Petrochemical Industry? World proved reserves of natural gas are about 6,609 tcf (Source: EIA, 2010) and world technically recoverable gas resources are about 16,000 tcf, largely excluding shale gas Adding the identified shale gas resources increases total world technically recoverable gas resources by more than 40% to 22,600 tcf In the US, natural gas prices have decoupled from crude oil prices because of a plentiful supply of natural gas from shale and improvements in gas recovery technology (e.g. horizontal drilling) Given the price divergence between natural gas and crude oil, natural gas-based feedstock is becoming more cost competitive than oil-based feedstock 30 Source: Purvin & Gertz, IMF
  • 31. Natural Gas prices by region (in $/MMBtu) UK: $6.56 Russia: $8.38 Belgium: $6.45 US: $2.0 Spain: $6.43 Uzbekistan: $1.46 Japan: $7.64 Iran: $1.75 Mexico: $3.73 $3.7 Saudi Arabia: $0.75 Nigeria: $1.50 Brazil: $10.00 Note: Uzbekistan price is for wet gas , i.e. natural gas before fractionation Source: CMAI Natural gas prices are regional and differ widely between countries Uzbekistan, Mexico, and Nigeria have comparatively low gas prices Low natural gas price regions tend to attract large investments IFC Chemicals 31
  • 32. 32
  • 33. Key Considerations for Managing Investment Risks • Country and Political Risks -> Varies country to country: political instability, expropriation, foreign exchange volatility • Competitive Advantage -> Gross margins and cash costs • Financial Structure-> Capital structure (debt/equity), debt servicing • Project Profile -> Sector, export vs. import market orientation (=> forex generation) , size of operations, complexity of unit, secured feedstock or off-take agreements, etc. • Sponsor Profile -> Management and technical experience, ability to commit capital • Mobilization -> Ability to raise capital (locally and internationally) • Environmental & Social -> Company commitment to quality standards and best practices to manage environmental and social impact 33
  • 34. Presentation Highlights 1. The Global Perspective of Risks Challenges for IFC’s financing the chemical approach in 2. Petrochemicals: The Industry view Emerging sector Markets 3. The IFC approach in Emerging Markets 34
  • 35. International Chemicals Working IFC Value Sector Finance Proposition with Corporation Activities IFC 35
  • 36. IFC’s Products and Services Senior Structured Mezzanine Private Debt Finance Finance Equity • On-lending • Partial credit • Convertible debt • Common shares guarantees • Liquidity management • Subordinated debt • Preferred shares • Securitization • Acquisition financing • Other Tier II • Bond underwriting instruments • Warehousing facilities • Credit • Syndicated loans Enhancement Global Trade Advisory Sustainable Finance Program Services Finance • $1 billion program • Corporate governance • Carbon finance • Guarantees to issuing banks • Risk management • Renewable energy • 46 issuing banks in 24 • Small and medium business • Supply chain financing countries banking • Corporate governance • 92 confirming banks in 62 • Housing finance financing countries • Energy efficiency finance • $579 million of issued • Privatization guarantees in first 12 months 36 For more information see Annex 1
  • 37. IFC Value Added Long-term Global Regional Environmental Sustainability Country Risk Competitive Chemicals Knowledge & Social Risk Toolkit Mitigation Financing Expertise Management Equity Government 50 Years of Extensive Advice on Local Supplier Relations: 184 Sector Local Office Environmental Development Fixed/Floating Finance Expertise Network and Social Best Rates, Local Environmental Ministries form Practices Currencies Greenfield Local / Social Advice IFC’s BoD Transaction Equator Up to 15 year Expansion/ Corporate Neutral broker Experience Principles Loan Maturity Modernization Governance Role Modeled after World Bank Flexible Corporate IFC Standards Local Reduced Risk of Synergies Amortization Strategy Economic Expropriation, Local Profile Development Breach of Access to Consultation Catalyst for Contract, International and Disclosure HIV/AIDS other Investors Convertibility Investors Prevention and Lenders World Bank Technical Community Equity Synergies Advice Development Participation Funding Withholding Tax Capital Benefit Mobilization Partnership with MIGA 37 37
  • 38. Local Currency Financing •IFC has committed over $6.0 billion of local currency loans in a variety of currencies since 1999 •(31 currencies currently available) 38 For more information see Annex 1
  • 39. IFC Mobilization: (“B-Loan”) & Parallel Loans Top 10 IFC B-Loan Participants 1. Calyon 3. Citigroup 5. ABN AMRO 7. Societe Generale 9. Natixis 2. Cordiant Capital 4. ING Bank 6. BayernLB 8. HSBC 10. KBC Finance Ireland Loan Agreement Borrower IFC A + B Loans Participation B Loan •A loan is for IFC’s own account Agreement •B loan is for account of participant commercial banks •Only one loan agreement, signed by Participants the borrower and IFC •IFC is the lender of record for the entire loan (A+B) •IFC Loans exempt from withholding tax 39
  • 40. MIGA’s Value Addition Proposition Umbrella of deterrence Facilitation of settlement of disputes MIGA’s Shareholders are the same as the Host •Host Country is motivated to find a solution Countries of investments Only a small proportion of MIGA-supported •Project sponsors and financiers have a vested projects encounter difficulties interest in continued success of project MIGA guarantees provide downside protection on long- •5 claims paid out of 980 guarantees for total of term investments 616 projects since 1990 Equity covered up to 90% Debt covered up to 95% Tenor covered up to 15-20 years MIGA’s Risk Mitigation Solutions •Political (Country) Risk Insurance Coverage Currency Expropriation War and Civil Breach of Non Honoring of Transfer Disturbance Contract Sovereign Restriction and Obligations Inconvertibility •Guarantee holder can pick any combinations of coverage 40 For more information see Annex 1
  • 41. Top 6 Reasons Why Clients Choose IFC 70% 60% 50% Percent 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Maturity Expertise Long-term Stamp of Global Bring in other partner Approval Presence sources of finance Reasons IFC Chemicals 41
  • 42. International Chemicals Working IFC Value Finance Sector with Proposition Corporation Activities IFC Note: IFC’s “Chemicals & Fertilizers ” Business covers Refining, Petrochemicals, Fertilizers and Chemicals, both Organic and Inorganic as well as Chemicals Infrastructure and Retailing 42
  • 43. Portfolio in 2010 – By Product Equity Portfolio – By Region Chemicals and Fertilizers Equity Portfolio by Region Portfolio Other Loans products 32% 38% Equity 30% Other products: Risk Management and Guarantees 43 43
  • 44. IFC’s Chemicals, Petrochemicals, & Fertilizers Portfolio – 2011 ~$1.5 billion committed on IFC’s account Catalyzed over ~$17 billion in project investments By Sector By Region Agrochem 5% Other South Asia Infrastructure Petrochemicals Middle East & North 19% 28% 23% Africa 30% East Asia 15% Refineries Fertilizers Europe 10% 18% 10% Inorganic 16% Latin America Sub-Saharan & Caribbean Africa 8% 18% For more information please see Annex 2 44
  • 45. IFC’s Experience in Refining and Petrochemicals Sector Petrochemicals Fertilizers Others/Infrastructure Continental Carbon of India Ltd. Engro Corporate, Pakistan JPMC Terminal, Jordan NPC, Thailand: gas cracker ICS, Senegal: phosphoric acid IFC / SCB Facility Copesul, Brazil: naptha cracker Indo Jordan, Jordan: phosphoric acid Engro Vopak, Pakistan: Chemical terminal Copene, Brazil: naptha cracker Engro Chemicals, Pakistan: ammonia Messer, Trinidad & Tobago: industrial gases Samsung, Korea: petrochem/aromatics Trigen II, Trinidad & Tobago: ammonia Opet Petrolculuk, Turkey: fuel distribution complex restructuring Fosfertil, Brazil: SSP, TSP, MSP, DAP Antai, China: metallurgical coke HMC Polymers, Thailand: PP GNFC, India: ammonia, urea Ecogreen I & II, Indonesia: oleochemicals Petroken, Argentina: PP Deepak Nitrate, India: ammonia,Urea,DAP Darong, China: specialty chemicals Politeno, Brazil: PE PQB, Bolivia: ammonium nitrate UPL, India: pesticides, herbicides Ipiranga I & II, Brazil: PE, PP KuAz, Russia: ammonia, urea Gapco, Kenya: storage terminal Indelpro, Mexico Indo Egyptian, Egypt: phosphoric acid Zhong Chen, China: storage terminal Profalca, Venezuela: PP Koyo, China: ammonia, urea Galnaftogaz, Ukraine: petroleum retailer Grupo Zuliano, Venezuela: petrochem complex Abocol, Colombia: ammonium nitrate,NPK Dongyue, China: fluorine chemicals, Suzhou, China: PVC JIFCO, Jordan: DAP organicsilicone Vinythai, Thailand: PVC JPMC, Jordan: phosphate Atul, India: Dye and pesticide intermediates Engro PVC, Pakistan: PVC Engro Emergency, Pakistan: urea Hikal, India: Pharmaceuticals Tuntex, Thailand: PTA OCI Egypt: Corporate loan for fertilizers Vinati Organics (JV), India: specialty chemicals Rhodiaco, Brazil: PTA Paradeep Phosphates, India: DAP Rhodia-ster, Brazil: PTA/PET Itafos Brazil: PhosRock & Acid Refineries Oxiteno, Brazil: EO/MEG Inorganic Chemicals Girsa, Mexico: EO/MEG ERC Refinery, Egypt Pralca, Venezuela: MEG Engro Polymers, Pakistan PSPC (Shell), Philippines Gidesa, México: EG, PS Kanoria Vizag, India Star Petroleum (Caltex), Thailand Trikem, Brazil: PS Atul Ltd, India Refisan (Pecom), Argentina Innova, Brazil: styrene/PS Alexandria Carbon Black, Egypt: Carbon black Petrotel-Lukoil, Romania Daaboul, Syria: LAB Continental Carbon (CCIL), India: Carbon Black Alliance Oil Company, Russia Jose Methanol, Venezuela: methanol Maanshan I & II, China: Carbon black KuAz, Russia: caprolactam Rain Calcining, India: calcined carbon Eleme Petrochemicals, Nigeria: PE, PP Peroxythai, Thailand: hydrogen peroxide Xinao, China: Coal-to-DME Chengdu, China: potassium hydroxide & PVC DCM Shiram, India: PVC Prodesal, Colombia: caustic soda, chlorine Himadri, India: Carbon Pitch, carbon black Meghmani Finechem, India: ChlorAlkali Galaxy Chemicals, India: Surfactants Magadi Soda, Kenya: soda ash EIPET, Egypt: PET Lukovac Soda, Bosnia: soda ash Kanoria Chemicals, India: ChlorAlkali 45 Jiuda Salt, China: industrial salt For more information see Annex 2
  • 46. International Chemicals Working IFC Value Finance Sector with Proposition Corporation Activities IFC 46
  • 47. How We Finance Projects Project Type IFC Investment Up to 35% of project cost Greenfield, total cost for IFC’s account less than $50 million Up to 25% of project cost Greenfield, total cost for IFC’s account more than $50 million Up to 50% of project cost Expansion or rehabilitation for IFC’s account Greenfield, expansion, 100% project cost for IFC rehabilitation and participating banks’ accounts •Umbrella for participants in IFC’s syndication program: IFC lender of record, immunity from taxation and provisioning requirements. •IFC’s total financing must be less than 25% of total company capitalization, and IFC does not manage or own largest stake. 47
  • 48. Approaching IFC • Foreign or Domestic Sponsors New venture or expansion; private sector majority ownership only Project must be developmentally sound and commercially viable • Sponsor Commitment is Required Equity participation; pre-completion support/guarantees • Submit Preliminary Business Plan or Feasibility Study Brief project description, incl. technical feasibility and market study Information on sponsors and operator Environmental studies Information on requirements, financing plan and cash flow projections 48
  • 49. IFC’s Project Cycle Internal Early Review Due Diligence Negotiation Disclosure Approvals and Disbursement Commitment • Client needs • Assessment of • Terms and • Environmental • Board • Fulfillment of determined business conditions of and social consideration conditions of potential, the IFC information disbursement • Contribution • Board approval risks, investment disclosed of project to • IFC funds opportunities • Legal review development • Action plan • Opportunity disbursed assessed • Financial and agreed for public • Signing of legal economic comment documents • Project Evaluation screened for potential risks • Compliance & issues with IFC’s social and • Site visit environmental • Mandate performance letter standards reviewed We Agree on a Specific Timeline to Meet Client’s Needs 49
  • 50. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION How to contact us: Anil Chandramani Chief Investment Officer & Global Sector Lead, Chemicals & Fertilizers Washington DC Phone: +1-202-473-4081 +1-202-473- E-mail: achandramani@ifc.org 50