1. Climate Change and Jamaica’s
Agricultural Sector:
A Situation Analysis
Presented By: Richard Harrison, PhD
Chairman, National Board, RADA

2. Introduction
It is now generally accepted that climate change is a
reality and that the impacts are already being
observed in Jamaica.
The very noticeable change from what it was some
three or so- decades-ago is also now recognized by
our local farmers, many of whom express their
opinion in not so sophisticated terms.
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3. Characterization of the Sector
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4. Characterization of the Sector
The structure of the Jamaican agricultural
landscape is typical of most small island states.
The sector is dominated by small and medium size
farmers with 5 hectares of land or less and account
for 85 % of the total agricultural holdings.
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5. Characterization of the Sector
Small farmers typically cultivate marginal hillside
lands and produce the bulk of domestic food crops
under rain fed conditions.
Their dependence on rainfall and their subsistence
production levels render them highly vulnerable to
climate change.
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6. Characterization of the Sector
Large farmers account for only 15% of total
agricultural holdings. These farmers typically are
engaged in:
 Monocropping and export oriented
 Livestock Production Systems
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7. Characterization of the Sector
An analysis of the agricultural land use indicate
that approximately 60% of farm land is located on
the south western half of the island.
This area can be characterized as semi-arid and
agricultural production is largely rainfall dependent
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8. Socio Economic Importance of
the Sector
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9. Socio Economic Importance of
the Sector
The Jamaican agricultural sector has both social
and economic benefits to the Jamaican economy
and the general well-being of the country.
It is important in rural development, generation of
income and therefore rural stability and the
maintenance of the environment and biodiversity
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10. Socio Economic Importance of
the Sector
From an economic standpoint, the percentage
contribution of the sector to total real GDP
between 2009 to 2013 amounted to 6.0, 6.6, 6.6,
6.8, and 6.7 respectively.
(Source: Economic & Social Surveys of Jamaica)
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11. Socio Economic Importance of the
Sector
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12. Socio Economic Importance of
the Sector
The sector is a significant employer of labour,
absorbing 20% of the country’s labour force,
according to a recent study done by the FAO and
the IDB in 2013.
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13. Socio Economic Importance of
the Sector
It is also significant to note that much of this labour
is employed in the rural areas, thereby providing
an extremely important employment opportunity for
otherwise unemployed members of the workforce.
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14. Socio Economic Importance of
the Sector
Opportunities for gainful employment in the rural
areas is extremely limited, therefore the sector is
critical in maintaining stability in rural communities.
 Many rural communities exist because of the presence of
agricultural enterprises which continue to be the economic
lifeline of these areas
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15. Impact of Climate Change on the
Agricultural Sector
Agriculture is considered as one of the most
vulnerable sectors of climate change effects and
the rural farming communities amongst the most
affected (Trotz & Lindo, 2013).
Many studies on climate change impacts have
been done over the last decade and include a
IDB/FAO study on Climate Change and Agriculture
in Jamaica in 2013.
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16. Impact of Climate Change on the
Agricultural Sector
These changes have been observed in:
Wide variability in the rainfall pattern resulting in
extended and more frequent drought periods and
less predictable rainfall periods with higher
intensities over shorter periods.
Increasing frequency of hurricanes and storms.
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17. Impact of Climate Change on the
Agricultural Sector
 Saline intrusion into some of the aquifers on the
southern plains.
 Higher mean temperatures.
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18. Impact of Climate Change on the
Agricultural Sector
The IDB/FAO report stated that loss to the sector
due to climate change events between 1994 and
2010 is estimated at J$14.4 billion.
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19. Impact of Climate Change on the
Agricultural Sector
The drought of 2014 was considered the worst on
the record for decades and estimated losses of
US$953M.
The current drought of 2015 has already resulted
in losses estimated at hundreds of millions of
dollars principally as a result of the bush fires
destroying crops and reduced crop yields.
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20. Impact of Climate Change on the
Agricultural Sector
The country has experienced drought every year
from 2004-2010 with the exception being 2006.
The 2013 report also stated that mean
temperatures have increased by about 0.6 0
C since
1960, an average of 0.140
C per decade and is
expected to increase by another 0.470
C by 2030.
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21. Impact of Climate Change on the
Agricultural Sector
One of the most devastating manifestations of
climate change in Jamaica is the increasing
frequently of hurricanes and storms. Between 2000
to 2010, Jamaica has been impacted by 14
hurricanes and 16 tropical storms.
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22. Impact of Climate Change on the
Agricultural Sector
These climate change events impacts
agriculture in many ways:
Reduced crop yield from low rainfall.
Extended droughts also result in reduced cropping
seasons, hence lower availability of food.
Increased irrigation water costs in areas where this is
present.
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23. Impact of Climate Change on the
Agricultural Sector
Damage to agricultural infrastructure from flash
floods and hurricanes.
Increasing salinization of aquifers due to increased
abstraction and salt water intrusion.
Increasing incidence of pest and diseases e.g.
Beet army worm infestation of scallion in St.
Elizabeth believed to be climate related.
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24. Implications for Food Security
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25. Implications for Food Security
Food security not only refers to availability but also
affordability.
 The weather events over the last two decades
have resulted not only in the loss of actual
production itself have also caused temporary and
prolonged disruption of production capabilities.
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26. Implications for Food Security
The case of the devastation of the banana industry
from hurricanes has been well documented.
One subsector not well highlighted and discussed
is the fishing industry which sustained losses in
equipment as a result of hurricanes.
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27. Implications for Food Security
Considerable investment is then required to
replace damaged equipment and production time
is lossed.
Food security issues also come to the fore as local
production becomes less predictable and more
erratic in response to the uncertainty in the rainfall
for rain fed production.
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28. Implications for Food Security
This uncertainty of production creates problems in
planning and scheduling of food supplies as
relatively accurate production forecasts cannot be
made.
Consequently, availability during periods of
scarcity becomes an issue and importation of food
to close the gap is usually pursued.
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