2. La historia (entendida en sus tres @empos: pasado, presente y futuro) se
construye con eventos que ocurren en un momento.
Cuando tenemos eventos que siguen un patrón o una tendencia, podemos
presuponer que hay una fuerza motriz, una causa o un principio, una ley que
los mueve, que los ocasiona, que los provoca.
A veces tenemos un evento portador de futuro, es decir un primer evento que
va a provocar que surja un segundo evento, un tercero, un cuarto, etc. Por
ejemplo, cuando un chico se le declara a una chica y le pide ser su novia. Ese
evento puede portar o no futuro. Puede ser una broma o puede empezar un
novizago, ir a un altar, casarse ante lo civil, tener hijos, formar una familia. En
el primer caso el evento no portó futuro y en el segundo sí.
¿Qué son las tendencias? Son fuerzas que generan muchos eventos similares,
del mismo @po, del mismo patrón.
¿Qué es una megatendencia (megatrends)? Desde el enfoque de NaisbiR es
una nueva tendencia que rompe patrones anteriores y que crea nuevos
patrones, nuevas tendencias. Estas megatendencias crean el futuro. Subirse a
esa ola garan@za que no iremos contra corriente, resis@endo al futuro, sino
que tomaremos su fuerza y que nos instalaremos en el nuevo paradigma.
2/22/10 2
4. Los Motores de la Historia
Los motores de la historia:
Eventos, Inventos (tecnología), Ideas (pensamientos,
creencias ‐la religión‐, libros), Personajes (qué mueve a
la gente: sus sueños, sus amores, sus ideales, sus
miedos, sus necesidades, sus problemas, sus conflictos,
sus intereses o deseos, sus principios, sus paradigmas,
sus valores, sus incen@vos)
La información, el conocimiento, la ciencia, la educación,
la so^a, la estrategia, la comunicación
Imperios, Democracia, Guerras, la salud (epidemias)
2/22/10 4
5. Cómo leer el entorno
Generalmente se maneja con los STEPS, que son las iniciales en
inglés de lo social, la tecnología, la economía, la polí@ca, la
educación, la energía, etc. Algunos hablan de STEEPS, otros de
STEPES, etc. Nosotros agrupamos todas las tendencias en sólo 4
dimensiones:
‐ Social (aquí incluimos la educación, la cultura e incluso la ecología,
porque cuando hay un cambio ecológico afecta a la sociedad).
‐ Poli@co (democracia, elecciones, representación, solución de
conflictos, gobernanza, etc.)
‐ Judicial (seguridad, libertad, jus@cia, corrupción, impunidad, etc.)
‐ Economía (PIB, inflación, creación y distribución de la riqueza,
empleo –aunque algunos lo ponen entre la frontera económica y
social).
2/22/10 5
10. Ecológico
PIB Alimentación
Inflación Salud
Tasa de interés Educación
Empleo Vivienda
Exportaciones‐Importaciones Cultura
Deporte
Económico Social
Judicial Polí@co
Seguridad Democracia
Jus@cia Elecciones
Libertad Gobierno
Derechos Humanos Resolución de conflictos
2/22/10 10
11. Factores: Sociales, Tecnológicos, Económicos, Polí;cos, Sociales,
Ecológicos, Culturales, Energé;cos (STEPS)
Ecológico
PIB Alimentación
Inflación Salud
Tasa de interés Educación
Empleo Vivienda
Exportaciones‐Importaciones Cultura
Deporte
Económico Social
proyecto
Judicial Polí@co
Seguridad Democracia
Jus@cia Elecciones
Libertad Gobierno
Derechos Humanos Resolución de conflictos
2/22/10 11
12. Tabla de las Megatendencias, STEPS, Entorno
Cómo está afectando o beneficiando al proyecto
Cuáles son las variables, eventos, fuerzas, tendencias
Frentes, Variables, Oportunidad, Describir
dimensiones tendencia, ameneza
evento, STEPS (beneficio,
perjuicio)
Social, Clima Favoreciendo. Las lluvias
ecológico oportunidad están llenando
las presas
Sobrepoblació Desfavorecien
n do. amenaza
Polí@ca Elecciones Favorable,
desfavorable
2/22/10 12
16. Dos @pos de eventos
‐ Suceso, fenómeno (eventos naturales, donde no
interviente el ser humano). Ej: terremotos, tsunamis,
ciclones, huracanes.
‐ Acontecimiento, Actuación (eventos producidos por el ser
humano:
a) Pensamientos (entendimiento, volición, emoción)
b) Palabras (dijo, declaró)
c) Acciones (hizo)
Prueba de la Verdad
Materia
‐ Personas Espacio
Evento ‐ Cosas
Tiemp Energía‐Acción
o (verbo)
Pasado Presente Futuro
2/22/10 16
17. Eventos portadores de futuro (trascendencia,
secuela, serie de efectos, desencadena)
Aceleramiento o desacelamiento de la historia
Olas
Fuerzas Motrices (energía, fuerza que ocasiona
una serie de acontecimientos o eventos)
Eventos
económicos
Eventos
polí@cos
Aislado
Patrón ‐ secuencia
2/22/10 17
18. Eventos portadores de futuro
Aceleramiento o desacelamiento de la historia
Olas (@ene un antecedente, origen, auge‐
climax, final)
No@cia:
1. ‐ Interés o trascendencia, impacta, efecto,
importancia, consecuencia, aportación,
sensacionalista, llame atención (lugar,
momento,@empo, fuente, origen,
antecedentes) personaje) (muerte),
Co (económico, polí@co, social). Per@nencia.
Va a n Co 2.‐ Oportunidad, nuevo, novedoso, fresco,
venir el Co n oportuno, que acabe de ocurrir
Papa Co 3.‐ Rompa un paradigma, rompa un patrón, se
n Co
n n salga de lo establecido, de la norma y mientras
Aislado más rompa lo esperado más no@cioso
Patrón ‐ secuencia
Caractaris@cas
‐ veracidad
‐ Credibilidad
‐ Imparcialidad
‐ Obje@vidad (vs morbosidad)
2/22/10 ‐ Difusión 18
‐ Con@nuidad
‐ Caracteris@ca
19. El Patrón de un Ser Eventos portadores de futuro
Vivo: Aceleramiento o desacelamiento de la historia
‐ Gestación Olas (@ene un antecedente, origen, auge‐
‐ Nacimiento climax, final)
‐ Crecimiento
‐ Reproducción
‐ Madurez
‐ Envejecimiento Trayectoria exponencial
‐ Senilidad
‐ Muerte
El patrón de un conjunto
de seres
Trayectoria parabólica
nace
Gestación
2/22/10 19
20. Megatendencias o Megatrends
John NaisbiR
Su libro Megatrens de 1982 vendió
14 millones de copias a nivel mundial
23. MEGATRENDS
By JOHN NAISBITT
"Ten New Direc@ons Transforming Our Lives"
"A Road Map to the 21st Century"
This book review was wriRen in May 1990.
Megatrends was Published in 1980, 1982 by Warner Books.
Megatrends, an extremely popular and widely quoted book, has been
considered by many people to be a mainstream book with great significance to
the business community. John NaisbiR is known as a "futurist", and many have
considered him to be an objec@ve observer of trends in society.
Actually, far from being objec@ve journalism:
Megatrends presents the social tenets of the New Age movement.
John NaisbiR uses a form of propaganda called "bandwagon" propaganda. He
is saying, in effect, "Come on everybody, this is the way we're all going, so
2/22/10 23
everybody get on board!"
24. In the jargon of the Human Poten@al movement, which John NaisbiR applauds,
he is, in a sense, trying to reprogram our na@onal subconscious to give us a
vision for the New Age.
Between Two Eras
The main premise of Megatrends is that we are between two eras, i.e., we are
in a transi@on from an old era, an industrial society, to a new era, an
informa@on society.
The Global Village
"We must now adjust to living in a world of interdependent communi@es".
NaisbiR says that the "Global Village" has been created by computers and
satellite communica@ons technology.
"Satellites have turned the earth inward, upon itself."
NaisbiR repeats the popular New Age rallying cry, "Think Globally, act locally."
High‐Tech/High‐Touch
Highly personal value system
"Our response to the high tech all around us was the evolu@on of a highly
personal value system to compensate for the impersonal nature of technology.
The result was the new self‐help or personal growth movement, which
eventually became the human poten@al movement."
2/22/10 24
25. Human Poten@al
"Technology and our human poten@al are the two great challenges and
adventures facing humankind today."
Spiritual Demands
"We must learn to balance the material wonders of technology with the
spiritual demands of our human nature."
Human Poten@al Movement
"We created the group‐therapy movement, which led to the personal growth
movement, which in turn led to the human poten@al movement (est, TM,
Rolfing, Yoga, Zen, and so forth‐ all very high touch)."
Networking and Ancient Tribes
The Aquarian Conspiracy
"Networking, notes Marilyn Ferguson, who has wriRen extensively about the
subject in The Aquarian Conspiracy, is done by 'conferences, phone calls, air
travel, books, phantom organiza@ons, papers, pamphleteering, photocopying,
lectures, workshops, par@es, grapevines, mutual friends, summit mee@ngs,
coali@ons, tapes, newsleRers.'"
2/22/10 25
26. Ancient Tribes replacing Family and Church
"The strength of tradi@onal networks such as family, church, and
neighborhoods is dissipa@ng in American society. The gap is being filled with
new networks func@oning, as Marilyn Ferguson puts it, as the spontaneous
modern‐day equivalent of the ancient tribe. Networks fulfill the high‐touch
need for belonging."
Global Peace: Human Poten@al, Networking, Interdependence
The New Era
"We are living in the @me of the parenthesis, the @me between eras."
"Do we have the innova@ve ability to venture forward into the future?"
"Even while we think globally, the place to make a difference poli@cally is at the
local rather than the na@onal level. Whether the issue is energy, poli@cs,
community, self‐help, entrepreneurship, the consumer movement, or wholis@c
health, the new creed is one of self‐reliance and local ini@a@ve."
"This newly evolving world will require its own structures. We are subs@tu@ng
the network model of organiza@on and communica@on."
2/22/10 26
27. Computers will keep track of us
"We created the hierarchical, pyramidal, managerial system because we
needed it to keep track of people and things people did; with the computer to
keep track, we can restructure our ins@tu@ons horizontally."
"Today we live in a world of overlapping networks, not just a constella@on of
networks but a galaxy of networking constella@ons."
Par@cipate in our own Evolu@on
"That is why the human poten@al movement that advocates both discipline
and responsibility is such a cri@cal part of the high‐tech/high‐touch equa@on.
By discovering our poten@al as human beings we par@cipate in the evolu@on of
the human race. We develop the inner knowledge, the wisdom, perhaps,
required to guide our explora@on of technology."
"With the high‐touch wisdom gained studying our poten@al as human beings,
we may learn the ways to master the greatest high‐tech challenge that has ever
faced mankind ‐ the threat of total annihila@on by nuclear warfare."
"High‐tech/high‐touch. The principle symbolizes the need for balance between
our physical and spiritual reali@es."
2/22/10 27
"The new leader is a facilitator, not an order giver."
28. Our Great Hope: Global Interdependence
"Instead of resis@ng increased economic interdependence, we should be
embracing it wholeheartedly. In my view, it is our great hope for peace."
John NaisbiR and the "Aquarian Conspiracy"
The Aquarian Conspiracy was wriRen by Marilyn Ferguson in 1980.
Called the "Handbook of the New Age" by "USA Today", it describes an
"underground network" that is "working to create a different kind of society
based on a vastly enlarged concept of human poten@al."
John NaisbiR wrote the foreword to the 1987 edi@on.
"My book, Megatrends, was the so|‐core document on change; The Aquarian
Conspiracy was the 'hard‐core stuff'".
"During @mes of great change, people seek some kind of structure. Such a
search for parameters accounts in part for the current religious revival.
Hundreds of new churches have been established during the last two decades,
helped in part by electronic media; many of these churches have highly
structured fundamentalist beliefs. A similar prolifera@on of new religious
groups occurred 150 years ago, when we were in the midst of another basic
shi|, from an agricultural to an industrial economic base."
2/22/10 28
29. "There is, however, a rapidly growing popula@on to whom such external
structures are not appealing; these are the "inner‐directed," people inclined to
reach down inside to their own spiritual resources. So we are experiencing a
simultaneous revival in personal spirituality. The individualism of the new
spirituality is fed by the individualis@c nature of an informa@on society, and
also by the trend I have called the 'high‐touch response' to all of the high‐tech
in today's society. It is to this spirit that The Aquarian Conspiracy speaks." (click
on the @tle)
The New Age Catalogue
The New Age Catalogue, was published in 1988 by the editors of "Body, Mind,
and Spirit" magazine.
The catalogue includes books on channeling, Edgar Cayce, crystals, tarot cards,
medita@on, yoga, etc.
Megatrends, along with The Aquarian Conspiracy, is featured in the sec@on
called, "The Planet".
Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990's
Another more recent book by John NaisbiR, wriRen with Patricia Aburdene.
Published in 1990.
2/22/10 29
Between Two Ages
32. MEGATRENDS
By JOHN NAISBITT
"Ten New Direc@ons Transforming Our Lives"
"A Road Map to the 21st Century"
This book review was wriRen in May 1990.
Megatrends was Published in 1980, 1982 by Warner Books.
Megatrends, an extremely popular and widely quoted book, has been considered by
many people to be a mainstream book with great significance to the business
community. John NaisbiR is known as a "futurist", and many have considered him to
be an objec@ve observer of trends in society.
Actually, far from being objec@ve journalism:
2/22/10 32
33. Megatrends presents the social tenets of the New Age movement.
John NaisbiR uses a form of propaganda called "bandwagon" propaganda. He is
saying, in effect, "Come on everybody, this is the way we're all going, so everybody
get on board!"
In the jargon of the Human Poten@al movement, which John NaisbiR applauds, he is,
in a sense, trying to reprogram our na@onal subconscious to give us a vision for the
New Age.
Between Two Eras
The main premise of Megatrends is that we are between two eras, i.e., we are in a
transi@on from an old era, an industrial society, to a new era, an informa@on society.
The Global Village
"We must now adjust to living in a world of interdependent communi@es".
NaisbiR says that the "Global Village" has been created by computers and satellite
communica@ons technology.
"Satellites have turned the earth inward, upon itself."
NaisbiR repeats the popular New Age rallying cry, "Think Globally, act locally."
High‐Tech/High‐Touch
2/22/10 33
35. Networking and Ancient Tribes
The Aquarian Conspiracy
"Networking, notes Marilyn Ferguson, who has wriRen extensively about the subject
in The Aquarian Conspiracy, is done by 'conferences, phone calls, air travel, books,
phantom organiza@ons, papers, pamphleteering, photocopying, lectures, workshops,
par@es, grapevines, mutual friends, summit mee@ngs, coali@ons, tapes,
newsleRers.'"
Ancient Tribes replacing Family and Church
"The strength of tradi@onal networks such as family, church, and neighborhoods is
dissipa@ng in American society. The gap is being filled with new networks
func@oning, as Marilyn Ferguson puts it, as the spontaneous modern‐day equivalent
of the ancient tribe. Networks fulfill the high‐touch need for belonging."
Global Peace: Human Poten@al, Networking, Interdependence
The New Era
"We are living in the @me of the parenthesis, the @me between eras."
"Do we have the innova@ve ability to venture forward into the future?"
2/22/10 35
36. "Even while we think globally, the place to make a difference poli@cally is at the local
rather than the na@onal level. Whether the issue is energy, poli@cs, community, self‐
help, entrepreneurship, the consumer movement, or wholis@c health, the new creed
is one of self‐reliance and local ini@a@ve."
"This newly evolving world will require its own structures. We are subs@tu@ng the
network model of organiza@on and communica@on."
Computers will keep track of us
"We created the hierarchical, pyramidal, managerial system because we needed it to
keep track of people and things people did; with the computer to keep track, we can
restructure our ins@tu@ons horizontally."
"Today we live in a world of overlapping networks, not just a constella@on of
networks but a galaxy of networking constella@ons."
Par@cipate in our own Evolu@on
"That is why the human poten@al movement that advocates both discipline and
responsibility is such a cri@cal part of the high‐tech/high‐touch equa@on. By
discovering our poten@al as human beings we par@cipate in the evolu@on of the
human race. We develop the inner knowledge, the wisdom, perhaps, required to
2/22/10 36
guide our explora@on of technology."
37. "With the high‐touch wisdom gained studying our poten@al as human beings, we
may learn the ways to master the greatest high‐tech challenge that has ever faced
mankind ‐ the threat of total annihila@on by nuclear warfare."
"High‐tech/high‐touch. The principle symbolizes the need for balance between our
physical and spiritual reali@es."
"The new leader is a facilitator, not an order giver."
Our Great Hope: Global Interdependence
"Instead of resis@ng increased economic interdependence, we should be embracing
it wholeheartedly. In my view, it is our great hope for peace."
John NaisbiR and the "Aquarian Conspiracy"
The Aquarian Conspiracy was wriRen by Marilyn Ferguson in 1980.
Called the "Handbook of the New Age" by "USA Today", it describes an
"underground network" that is "working to create a different kind of society based
on a vastly enlarged concept of human poten@al."
John NaisbiR wrote the foreword to the 1987 edi@on.
"My book, Megatrends, was the so|‐core document on change; The Aquarian
2/22/10 37
Conspiracy was the 'hard‐core stuff'".
38. "During @mes of great change, people seek some kind of structure. Such a search for
parameters accounts in part for the current religious revival. Hundreds of new
churches have been established during the last two decades, helped in part by
electronic media; many of these churches have highly structured fundamentalist
beliefs. A similar prolifera@on of new religious groups occurred 150 years ago, when
we were in the midst of another basic shi|, from an agricultural to an industrial
economic base."
"There is, however, a rapidly growing popula@on to whom such external structures
are not appealing; these are the "inner‐directed," people inclined to reach down
inside to their own spiritual resources. So we are experiencing a simultaneous revival
in personal spirituality. The individualism of the new spirituality is fed by the
individualis@c nature of an informa@on society, and also by the trend I have called
the 'high‐touch response' to all of the high‐tech in today's society. It is to this spirit
that The Aquarian Conspiracy speaks." (click on the @tle)
2/22/10 38
39. The New Age Catalogue
The New Age Catalogue, was published in 1988 by the editors of "Body, Mind, and
Spirit" magazine.
The catalogue includes books on channeling, Edgar Cayce, crystals, tarot cards,
medita@on, yoga, etc.
Megatrends, along with The Aquarian Conspiracy, is featured in the sec@on called,
"The Planet".
Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990's
Another more recent book by John NaisbiR, wriRen with Patricia Aburdene.
Published in 1990.
Between Two Ages
John NaisbiR's views in Megatrends are actually just a populariza@on of ideas
already expressed twelve years earlier.
In 1970, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote Between Two Ages: America's Role in the
Technetronic Era (click on the @tle).
Fuente: hRp://www.free‐book‐summary.com/megatrends.html
2/22/10 39
40. Megatendencias del Entorno
Mundial
Servicio Profesional de Carrera
Universitaria para los
Estudiantes de la Maestría en
Administración de la UAEM.
47. Los sectores económicos líderes para el Siglo XXI son:
Telecomunicación Computación Biotecnología
Robó@ca Ingeniería gené@ca Comunicación espacial (aviación)
Ciencia de nuevos materiales (fibra óp@ca)
Implican que son sectores en donde:
1) La transferencia de conocimientos es aceleradísima 2) el crecimiento exponencial 3)
En estos sectores predominan los sistemas de autocontrol
n) Las grandes empresas cambian su manera de operar y la economía es re‐
interpetada
o) Las organizaciones se simplifican
p) Los mercados se están fraccionando
q) Crece el sector servicios
r) Priva@zación del sector público
s) El socialismo como lo conocemos dejará de exis@r: Enfoque de un nuevo concepto
de nación y de derechos humanos
2/22/10 47
49. * Fuente:
Servicio Profesional de
Carrera Universitaria para
los
Estudiantes de la Maestría
en Administración de la
UAEM.
hRp://
www.joseacontreras.net/
2/22/10 49
50. * Fuente:
Servicio Profesional de
Carrera Universitaria para
los
Estudiantes de la Maestría
en Administración de la
UAEM.
hRp://
www.joseacontreras.net/
2/22/10 50
51. * Fuente:
Servicio Profesional de
Carrera Universitaria para
los
Estudiantes de la Maestría
en Administración de la
UAEM.
hRp://
www.joseacontreras.net/
2/22/10 51
52. * Fuente:
Servicio Profesional de
Carrera Universitaria para los
Estudiantes de la Maestría en
Administración de la UAEM.
hRp://
www.joseacontreras.net/
2/22/10 52
53. * Fuente:
Servicio Profesional de
Carrera Universitaria para
los
Estudiantes de la Maestría
en Administración de la
UAEM.
hRp://
www.joseacontreras.net/
2/22/10 53
58. Los gobiernos ya han reaccionado ante la amenaza y están invir@endo gran parte de
su @empo en rever@r la pérdida de los recursos naturales y conservarlos para el
futuro.
Asia y las nuevas superpotencias
En el siglo XXI se renovará el mapa económico gracias a la incorporación de dos
superpotencias asiá@cas: China e India.
Ambos países han superado sus bajas tasas de crecimiento económico y comienzan a
alejarse rápidamente de la pobreza y acercarse peligrosamente a las que fueron las
superpotencias del siglo XX. Sin duda serán los nuevos centros de gravitación de la
economía mundial.
Norbert Walter, del Deutsche Bank, opina que “tanto India como China fomentan con
fuerza la creación de capital humano”. Esto traerá como resultado un mundo
mul@polar en el que EEUU tendrá un papel importante, pero no dominante.
2/22/10 58
60. Migraciones
Richard Florida, profesor de economía de la Universidad Carnegie Mellon , plantea
que en el futuro “la ciudad que eliges para vivir es la decisión más importante en la
vida”.
Actualmente, los gobiernos de las potencias económicas han analizado el tema de las
migraciones y los problemas que podrían traer, por lo que han creado polí@cas
gubernamentales específicas.
Para Raúl Sohr, este es uno de los temas que más influirá en la polí@ca internacional.
Como es el caso de la Unión Europea, la que ha tomado a la inmigración ilegal como
uno de los grandes retos a superar, creando planes especiales para disminuirlo y
norma@vas especiales para hacerlo de manera legal.
El rol femenino
Las mujeres serán la nueva fuerza laboral en este siglo y según algunos analistas son
las que llevarán las riendas económicas.
2/22/10 60
63. 1. Megatendencias
John NaisbiR
1983
2. Megatendencias 2000
Diez nuevos rumbos para los años 90
John NaisbiR y Patricia Aburdene
Editorial Norma, México 1990
O
Megatrends 2000
Ed. William Morrow and Company, Inc. NY.
Año 1990
3. World Power Trends and US Foreign Policy for the 1980´s
Ray S. Cline
4. The Joe 2008. (Joint Opera@ng Environment). Challenges and Implica@ons for
the Future Joint Forece. United States Joint Foreces Command. hRps://
us.jfcom.mil/sites/j5/j59/default.aspx
5. Nuestro Futuro Común. Comisión Mundial del Medio Ambiente y del Desarrollo
2/22/10 63
1987. Alianza Editorial, Madrid 1988