India @ Risk 2006

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

India Economic Summit

Meeting New Expectations

New Delhi, 26-28 November 2006
INSIGHTS

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Contents

Preface 3

Summary – Meeting New Expectations 4

State and National Competitiveness 7

Managing Growth 12

Infrastructure Development 15

Risk Management 18

The Creative Imperative in India 21

Acknowledgements 23

1

Preface

The theme, “Meeting New Expectations” clearly captured the imagination of the 600 leaders
from government, business, media and civil society who joined together in New Delhi for the
22nd India Economic Summit. India’s growth rate has averaged over 7% over the last three
years, which has clearly raised expectations economically, politically and developmentally. And
the consensus going forward is that the economy will achieve 10% growth and higher over
the next several years.

But the mood at this year’s Summit was neither that of complacency nor that of hubris;
instead it could be characterized as one of responsibility. The challenge of spreading high
growth across more state economies, infant industries and into rural communities was what
galvanized the various stakeholders this year. Moreover, participants from India and from
abroad understood that high growth was not synonymous with either inclusive or equitable
growth, both of which are at the foundation of any market-based democracy. Sonia Gandhi,
Chairperson, United Progressive Alliance and President, Indian National Congress, reminded
us all that “the economic growth we are experiencing must not be at the cost of social
awareness and social responsibility.”

The result was frank and open discussions that highlighted the need for greater alignment of
India’s public policy, development and industry agendas at multiple levels. As has been the
tradition for over 20 years, we introduced innovations aimed at building a stronger consensus
among business, civil society and government on critical growth challenges.

For example we launched our “India@Risk” report in collaboration with the Confederation of
Indian Industry (CII). Building from the Forum’s Global Risk Network, this project identified six
major global risks that have the greatest impact on India’s future growth and development. At the
opening plenary, the Indian Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram identified HIV/AIDS as
the most “frightening” among the six risks. Later in the Summit, mitigating this risk was
explored in depth with Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, Minister of Health and Family Welfare of
India, in a session on partnership models for business action on HIV and TB – epidemics that
kill approximately 1,000 people each day in India. One such successful model discussed at
the Summit was the India Business Alliance to Stop TB, a public-private partnership
supported by both the Forum and CII and their respective member companies. And for the
second consecutive year, the Schwab Foundation presented the 2006 India Social
Entrepreneur of the Year Award on the occasion of the Summit. Vikram Akula, Founder and
CEO of SKS Microfinance Private Limited received the award from Sonia Gandhi. SKS
Microfinance has been hailed as the “Starbucks of Microfinance” for adopting global business
practices in microfinance leading to over US$ 71.6 million in loans benefiting 1.5 million
Indians.

As you read the thematic essays and data presented in this report, three important
conclusions emerge as we prepare for the 23rd India Economic Summit, scheduled for 2-4
December 2007. First, India must now seize the opportunity to strengthen the foundation of
its remarkable growth by developing its rural economy, as agriculture contributes over 20% of
GDP and employs roughly 70% of the population. Second, India must remain in the vanguard
of globalization. Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Kamal Nath remarked in the
closing plenary: “The great champions of globalization have now started shirking it, but we in
India trumpet globalization because we are getting globally competitive.” And third, to
maintain this competitiveness, most of the burden will fall on state governments. It is at the
state and municipal levels where most of the barriers that impede investment into agriculture,
power, transportation and, most importantly, human development are to be found.

Lee Howell
Director, Head of Asia
3

Summary – Meeting New Expectations

“The economic growth we are
experiencing must not be at the
cost of social awareness and
social responsibility.”

Sonia Gandhi
Chairperson, United Progressive
Alliance and President, Indian
National Congress

This has been India’s year. Perhaps no other economy It became clear through the discussions that much of the
has enjoyed such a buzz over its prospects or such impetus would need to come from state governments. A
celebration over its progress. The irony of this notoriety is thicket of regulations from state to state is impeding
that it only raises the pressure on policy-makers to do investment into agriculture, power, transportation, and
even better, particularly for India’s thousands of most importantly, human development. While India has
impoverished rural communities, where news of the managed to create a sizeable urban middle class, the
country’s growing prosperity has also arrived. Meeting fastest growing segment of its population, its rural farming
their expectations will require that governments and the community, is also the poorest. With two-thirds of the
private sector focus on four issues identified as top population still working on farms and agriculture shrinking
priorities at the India Economic Summit: as a percentage of the economy, the need to give the
rural poor the tools to upgrade is clear.
• Improving higher education standards and technical
training, and broadening learning opportunities All the biggest risks to India’s development ultimately
nationwide come back to how they might exacerbate the plight of
• Recruiting, managing and retaining the most skilled and this group – and whether their protest would manifest
talented workers itself at the ballot box or in social unrest. If there was one
• Reversing environmental degradation in terms of climate message that permeated all the discussions at this year’s
change and water scarcity Summit, it was the urgent need for better education from
• Improving the national supply chain by upgrading the smallest primary school to the biggest universities.
physical infrastructure and introducing administrative
and tariff reforms

Now, thrust somewhat reluctantly into the vanguard of
globalization, India must seize the opportunity to
strengthen the foundations of its remarkable growth by
uplifting its rural poor. “The economic growth we are
experiencing must not be at the cost of social awareness
and social responsibility,” stated Sonia Gandhi,
Chairperson, United Progressive Alliance and President,
Indian National Congress.

4

Managing Growth State and National Competitiveness

India aims to boost economic growth from 8 to 10% India’s global competitiveness compares well with those
by 2010 but a number of obstacles stand in the way. of China, Brazil and Russia. But if the Indian economy is
to achieve and sustain 10% growth, a number of
• Poor infrastructure, a weak agriculture sector and shortcomings have to be addressed, particularly in
skills shortages are placing constraints on growth. education, governance and the rural economy.
• India will need to double growth in the farm sector
to 4%, if it is to meet its goals and achieve more • India’s states are the principal shareholders in India’s
inclusive growth. development. Given India’s democratic system,
• Educational reforms are vital for alleviating a India’s future competitiveness will depend on the states
shortage of labour that has pushed IT salaries up and their capacity to adopt reforms and tackle their
20% a year. respective problems. The competition among the states
• To promote innovation, India must make it easier for for investment will spur them into action.
companies to access capital and encourage • India aims to replicate across the rest of the economy
enterprises to go global to improve competitiveness. the successes attained in the IT, pharmaceutical and
telecommunications sectors. India’s competitive
advantage may be its ability to deliver innovative, quality
goods and services at a low price.
• Increasing the productivity and efficiency of the rural
economy is essential. The goal is to create a domestic
common market through supply chain management
and regulatory reform that resolves the anomalies that
characterize cross-state commerce.
• Improving higher education standards and technical
training is critical if India is to improve its global
competitiveness by confronting the range of challenges
it faces.

Activators and Innovators: The Role of Business in HIVAIDS and TB in India – Jo Johnson, K. Srinath Reddy, Anbumani Ramadoss, Leonard Tauro
and Jamshyd N. Godrej

5

Infrastructure Risk Management

Improving India’s inadequate infrastructure is essential to The risks to economic growth are urgent, requiring
sustaining economic growth and reducing disparities in tailored solutions.
income.
• Healthcare should be seen as an investment
• Energy and water remain two crucial areas for opportunity; priority should be given to HIV and TB
investment. India needs to find more domestic sources awareness, diagnosis and treatment.
of natural gas and promote investment in power plants, • Protectionist forces are rising, emphasizing the need for
water treatment and irrigation. stronger ties with trading partners in the West and
• Growing trade has created an urgent need for South Asia.
investment in logistics, particularly roads, ports and • Oil prices and air pollution are also rising; India must
railways. Customs facilities need to operate around- invest in alternative energy sources and in supplies
the-clock. overseas.
• Private investment is crucial. Special purpose vehicles • Global climate change threatens India’s fragile water
should be used to manage infrastructure projects and supply, raising the need to conserve, discourage waste
eliminate red tape. and price water to reflect its scarcity.
• The maze of state regulations still needs trimming. The • India’s youth is a positive force but its schools need an
financial industry should be further deregulated to overhaul if it wants to truly leverage its demographic
facilitate fund-raising and risk management. dividend. Companies should invest in vocational training
and help design college curricula.

Vikram Badshah, Head of Public Policy, Confederation of Indian Industry, India; Pawan Munjal, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer,
Hero Group, India; Rahul Bajaj, Chairman, Bajaj Auto, India; Sunil Kant Munjal, Chairman, Hero Corporate Service Limited, India

6

State and National Competitiveness

“The great champions of “We have a low-cost
globalization have now economy and a high-quality
started shirking it, but we resource base so we will be
in India trumpet able to produce quality
globalization because we goods at a low price. But
are getting globally we need to build that
competitive.” resource base further.”

Kamal Nath, Minister of Kapil Sibal, Minister of Science
Commerce and Industry, India and Technology and Earth
Sciences, India

At the India Economic Summit, many participants it, but we in India trumpet globalization because we
called for India to repeat in other sectors the are getting globally competitive.”
successes it has achieved in IT, pharmaceuticals and But India’s drive for competitiveness is complicated by
telecommunications. Its move towards greater its federal system. A lot depends on the states – and
innovation capabilities has been significant. how they address the competitive pressures they face
(See Figure 1) The message of this refrain: that India will be critical to determining India’s global
should find new drivers of growth, reform and open up competitiveness. After all, the states are the principal
its markets further, and find niches in which it can shine shareholders in Indian development, as Montek S.
internationally. India’s global competitiveness – it is Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of India’s Planning
43rd on the World Economic Forum’s latest Commission, once described them. Explaining why
competitiveness ranking – compares well with those the national government cannot issue fiats to state
of the three other large, emerging economies with governments to resolve nagging problems such as
which it is often grouped: China (54th), Russia (62nd) supply chain complications resulting from the array of
and Brazil (66th). India’s rise has turned it into a taxes and fees that hamper cross-state commerce,
globalization booster, said Indian Minister of Nath acknowledged that “some things possible in
Commerce and Industry Kamal Nath. “The great China aren’t possible in India.” He added, however,
champions of globalization have now started shirking that in India, “states are [now] looking for revenues
[and so] we are inducing and counselling states to
make them see the larger growth picture.”
Figure 1. India Transforming into an Innovation-
Driven Economy
Some states have started rationalizing their tax
systems, spurring others to act, Nath noted. States
differ widely in income level, quality of infrastructure
and governance standards. Foreign investors are
increasingly more discriminating in their choice of state
to target. As in China, this has naturally sparked
rivalries. Said Nath: “The new thing that is happening
is the competitive atmosphere among the states.” The
more responsive are taking stock and adopting better
governance practices, eschewing knee-jerk ideology
for solid results. Indeed, some of the more pragmatic
states have come to understand the value of forging
public-private partnerships with the private sector to
address their shortcomings in areas such as
infrastructure, water management, healthcare and
education that are crucial to attracting investors.
7

“Running a state is like “We need to revamp the
running a business.” higher education system.
We have no talent going
through the postgraduate
Vasundhara Raje
programme.”
Chief Minister of Rajasthan

Hari S. Bhartia
Co-Chairman and Managing
Director, Jubilant Organosys,
India

environment. Even a poorer state such as Bihar is
The aspirations of citizens are much higher and they
mobilizing to create an investor-friendly business climate.
demand much more of their leaders, Vasundhara Raje,
It is focusing on developing its agro-processing and
Chief Minister of Rajasthan, acknowledged. “Running a
tourism sectors and improving healthcare and education
state is like running a business,” she said. Rajasthan has
facilities, as well as roads and other infrastructure.
put a lot of emphasis on developing its already
established tourism sector and on improving
The states and the competitive spirit they generate will
infrastructure. Power production is being privatized and
certainly be instrumental in helping India within five years
wind power projects expanded. The state expects to have
to achieve and sustain 10% growth, the level where China
a surplus of power within two years. Meanwhile, the Chief
is today. India will need their contribution and
Minister of the National Capital Territory of Delhi, Sheila
collaboration to address serious competitive
Dikshit, stressed the need for privatization and better
shortcomings, particularly in education and human
management of resources. The private sector can be
resources, governance and the rural economy. The
instrumental in multiplying the positive effects of reforms.
country as a whole will also need to exploit its competitive
For example, while power sector liberalization has
advantages, especially its youthful demographics – over
significantly improved the quality of service and
half the population is under the age of 25 – and the value-
distribution, consumers still feel their needs are not being
for-money proposition that won it 85% of the global
met, Dikshit explained. Private companies can step in to
business process outsourcing (BPO) market or more than
raise service standards even higher.
US$ 6 billion in revenues. “Every consumer in the world
wants a product at the lowest possible price and at the
For his part, the Chief Minister of Maharashtra, Vilasrao
highest quality,” said the Indian Minister of Science and
Deshmukh, told participants that his government is
Technology and Earth Sciences, Kapil Sibal. “We have a
“cutting red tape and rolling out the red carpet.” Already a
low-cost economy and a high-quality resource base so
major recipient of FDI, his state contributes 13% of the
we will be able to produce quality goods at a low price.
national GDP. It was the first state in the nation to set
But we need to build that resource base further.”
aside 25% of live water storage capacity for domestic and
industrial use. It is also aiming to maintain its power
It is a unique business plan, one that builds on India’s
surplus position by investing US$ 13 billion in the sector.
recent successes, particularly in IT services and
The state is also pushing the development of special
pharmaceuticals. Indeed, India’s pharmaceutical firms are
economic zones (SEZs) that will offer world-class
moving beyond generic production to innovative R&D in
infrastructure, liberal tax regimes, one-stop-shop
partnership with global companies to develop new drugs.
clearance procedures and a hospitable working

8

The same is true in software development. In the BPO Technologies, India. “To create that single market
market, India is expanding its repertoire to include so- requires government intervention if you are going to
called knowledge process outsourcing (KPO), or the reform all of this. There are a lot of stakeholders with a
offshoring of high-end knowledge work in various claim on these taxes.”
fields including engineering, design, medicine, finance
and law. And India is aiming to develop an effective This is a crucial challenge to which the states hold the
innovation ecosystem. “Innovation is not buying up key. But there are doubts that this stumbling block
technology,” reckoned Sibal. “It may be quality, but it’s can be effectively addressed soon, given India’s
not affordable. We need to partner with industry to federal structure and democratic political system. Yet
adapt technology and innovate to meet the needs of relying on the market and the competition among
the common folk.” states to produce better governance may be the best
– and perhaps the only – approach that democratic
It is all about competitiveness through increased India can take. Indian companies, meanwhile, are
efficiency. “What makes Indian firms more competitive working around the problems. The automotive parts
is that they can absorb technology,” said Rajiv Kumar, sector, for example, has managed to build up a 7%
Chief Executive and Director, Indian Council for share of the global market, supplying components to
Research on International Economic Relations BMW, DaimlerChrysler and other global automakers.
(ICRIER). “We are increasingly a productivity-driven
economy.” The main reason behind such successes is the
availability of the right skills and talent. All of India’s
Yet India’s competitiveness drive has long been competitive ambitions really depend on its ability to
stymied by its poor infrastructure and lack of viable improve higher education standards and technical
supply chains. Rural development and agriculture training. “We need to revamp the higher education
have suffered without adequate transport, storage and system,” Hari S. Bhartia, Co-Chairman and Managing
handling facilities. India’s supply chain, said Pankaj Director, Jubilant Organosys, India, said, noting the
Chandra, Professor, Operations and Technology low number of Indian PhD students. ”We have no
Management, Indian Institute of Management, is talent going through the postgraduate programme.”
“fragmented, complex and lacks discipline.” Added India’s low R&D spending relative to GNP is also
Hans-Joachim Körber, Chairman and Chief Executive hampering the development of its innovation
Officer, Metro, Germany: “If we get a proper supply ecosystem. (See Figure 2)
chain, then the vision of India as the food factory of
the world may be possible.”
Figure 2. R&D Spending Not Keeping Pace with
Economy
That future for India’s agribusiness sector depends not
just on the building of the physical infrastructure
needed in rural areas, but also on other issues
including the modernization of the retailing sector and
distribution networks, and how effectively India can
resolve the anomalies that characterize cross-state
commerce, the software of supply chain management.
These problems are also hampering growth in the
manufacturing sector. A major obstacle: the variety of
tariffs and fees levied on goods and transport entering
states. It can take eight days for a truck to deliver
goods from Kolkata to Mumbai, a distance of
approximately 2,000 kilometres. “The goal is to create
a single Indian common market,” said India Economic
Summit Co-Chair Nandan M. Nilekani, President,
Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Infosys

9

Other participants hailed India’s educational achievements That plea to focus on the poor and remote neatly sums
so far, while acknowledging that there is enormous room up the two factors that will determine India’s future
for improvement. “We should really give some credit that competitiveness: how well the nation as a whole and the
the Indian education system has done something,” states in particular can develop their resources,
argued Mohamed A. Alabbar, Chairman, Emaar particularly their people’s skills and talents, to meet the
Properties, United Arab Emirates and Co-Chair of the country’s growth and equity goals as well as the demands
India Economic Summit. Said Jaggi Vasudev, Sadhguru of globalization, and how well Indians can tap the vast
and Founder, Isha Foundation, India: “The important thing potential of the rural economy. Concluded R. Seshasayee,
is that there is a huge volume of intelligence in the rural Managing Director, Ashok Leyland, India, and President,
area – 70% of the intelligence is out there – so we are not Confederation of Indian Industry (CII): “You can’t attack
really increasing our knowledge base.” Certainly the the top end unless you nurture the bottom end.”
relationship between GDP per capita and the number of
regional polytechnic institutes is significant. (See Figure 3)

“The depth of education
needs to continue for India
Figure 3. Polytechnic Institutes Play a Role in
to remain competitive.”
State Economic Development
Sir Michael Rake
International Chairman
KPMG
United Kingdom

10

India’s Economic Competitiveness

India ranked 43rd overall in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007. The subcontinent
received excellent scores in capacity for innovation and sophistication of firm operations. The Report noted that while firm
use of technology and rates of technology transfer were high, penetration rates of the latest technologies are still quite
low by international standards. This reflects India’s low levels of per capita income and high incidence of poverty, the
Report concluded.

“The quality of the business environment in India has improved tangibly in recent years, with goods, labour and financial
markets making gains in efficiency. There have also been substantial improvements in the underlying institutional climate
in such areas as property rights, the operation of the judicial system and other indicators which capture essential aspects
of building a sound investment climate,” noted Jennifer Blanke, Senior Economist at the World Economic Forum.

Further progress in fiscal consolidation should enhance the ability of the government to respond to pressing needs,
particularly in the areas of education, public health and infrastructure. Insufficient health services and education as well as
a poorly developed infrastructure are limiting a more equitable distribution of the benefits of India’s high growth rates. The
available evidence suggests that the Indian economy may have entered a high growth plateau. The challenge for the
authorities will be to ensure that this process is sustained and that it precipitates further progress in poverty reduction,
the Report noted.

The Most Problematic Factors for Doing Business

11

Managing Growth

“The demand for people is “Many years ago people
just going through the roof. used to doubt whether we
Many industries are simply knew how to grow fast.
competing for the same Now the question is can we
pool of labour.” make growth inclusive.”

Nandan M. Nilekani, President, Montek S. Ahluwalia, Deputy
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, Planning
Managing Director, Infosys Commission, India
Technologies, India; Co-Chair,
India Economic Summit 2006

India’s economy grew by 9.2% in the third quarter of It will take strong partnerships between the public and
2006, the sixth time in the past seven quarters in which private sectors and better political and corporate
GDP growth has surpassed 8%. The economy is clearly governance to address the drags and disparities that
climbing to a higher altitude. “Our overall macroeconomic could spoil India’s ambitions. “Industry will do what is
position is very strong,” said Montek S. Ahluwalia, Deputy necessary to achieve the targets we set provided we do
Chairman of India’s Planning Commission. “The external what we can to provide them a decent level of
position is very strong; Indian business has gained a lot of infrastructure,” Ahluwalia reckoned. But the government
self-confidence; and international perceptions of India are alone cannot come up with the US$ 350 billion in
better than they were four years ago.” The good news investment needed over the next five years to construct or
has prompted Ahluwalia and his team to target 9% upgrade the airports, ports, bridges, roads, ports and
growth for the first three years of the next five-year plan to other facilities it needs to support 10% growth. Public-
be launched in 2007 and then aim for 10% for the private partnerships and significant private investment are
remaining time covered by the blueprint. Achievable goals essential.
– but is such growth sustainable?

Figure 1. Poverty in India Varies Greatly by State
The trouble is that as India manages its growth higher, the
going will only get tougher. Constraints such as poor
infrastructure, the underperformance of the agriculture
sector and the shortage of skills will make it more difficult
to sustain the fast pace unless significant progress is
made in resolving bottleneck problems. It will be even
more difficult to ensure that growth is equitable, the top
priority for India’s leaders. “Many years ago people used
to doubt whether we knew how to grow fast,” Ahluwalia
observed. “Now the question is can we make growth
inclusive.” (See Figure 1)

12

“The agriculture sector will “If you want to develop the
be India’s powerhouse.” agricultural sector, one of
the preconditions is a
Jyotiraditya Scindia proper supply chain.”
Indian Member of Parliament
Hans-Joachim Körber,
Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer, Metro, Germany

if the health and education facilities and programmes
Another critical factor is agriculture, which still employs
the country requires are to push ahead, and if the
70% of the population. The sector has slowed down
economy’s knowledge base is to widen, what India
since the mid-1990s and is currently growing at just
needs are workers with the skills to carry out this
2%. For the economy to achieve 10% growth,
ambitious growth agenda. “The demand for people is
agriculture will have to grow by at least 4%. “The
just going through the roof,” said India Economic
agriculture sector will be India’s powerhouse,”
Summit Co-Chair Nandan M. Nilekani, President,
predicted Indian Member of Parliament Jyotiraditya
Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Infosys
Scindia. But for this to come true will require
Technologies, India. “Many industries are simply
significant restructuring. The sector must diversify
competing for the same pool of labour.”
beyond traditional cereal production into more high-
The onus is on the education sector, particularly
value businesses such as horticulture, floriculture and
India’s universities. “You can’t have rapid growth or
fisheries. But this will involve the production,
inclusive growth unless the education system is
distribution and marketing of perishable products.
providing enough expansion of the relative skills,”
Rural supply chains today are highly inefficient. About
explained Ahluwalia. “As we move towards 9% or
40% of Indian produce is wasted due to insufficient
10% growth, the constraint in terms of available skills
transport, storage and handling facilities. “If you want
will become marked in certain areas.” Added Sunil
to develop the agricultural sector, one of the
Kant Munjal, Chairman, Hero Corporate Service, India:
preconditions is a proper supply chain,” said Hans-
“For India, innovation will be the key to moving
Joachim Körber, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer,
forward. Our labour costs are already not that low
Metro, Germany. “It is still very difficult to move food
when you compare them to some other nations. The
and vegetables from one state to another. There should
supply of people is large, but what matters is our
be a focus on the supply chain to secure future growth.”
ability to train people. It’s not just formal education; it’s
all manner of skills and vocational education.”
A further constraint on growth is human resources.
Pay increases in IT are running at a staggering 20%,
Again, the participation of the private sector will be
indicating how tight the labour market is in India’s
vital. At the closing plenary, Indian Minister of
flagship services sector. Companies complain of
Commerce and Industry Kamal Nath announced that
inadequate talent among graduates and difficulties
the cabinet is moving to introduce legislation to allow
retaining personnel after spending money and
foreign educational institutions to set up in India. The
resources on their training. If manufacturing and
twin aims: to boost the quality of education by
agriculture are to expand, if the retail sector is to
opening the market to foreign competition, and to
modernize to cater to the expanding ranks of middle-
attract accomplished Indian educators at universities
class consumers and to the untapped rural market, if
abroad to come home.
the infrastructure the nation badly needs is to be built,

13

Metro in partnership with local firms. It means letting the
This landmark measure is the sort of bold decision that
private sector step forward and promoting a wide range
the government has to make to eliminate or at least
of public-private partnerships. “The private entrepreneurial
reduce the obstacles to sustaining 10% growth and to
spirit that has come out of economic reforms is a genie
ensure that the benefits of high growth are fairly shared.
that has been let out of the bottle and is impossible to put
“There are many countries that use education as an
back in,” said Rajiv Kumar, Chief Executive and Director of
excuse for an underperforming economy,” said Graham
the Indian Council for Research on International Economic
Mackay, Chief Executive, SABMiller, United Kingdom, who
Relations (ICRIER).
was also a Summit Co-Chair. “Most of the time the
question is whether there is an enabling environment for
India, to be sure, is in “a new growth trajectory,” Kumar
growth. Is there a business-friendly enabling
concluded. “While 10% growth is very possible, anyone
environment?” The key is good governance, Mackay
who assumes that it is a given is being complacent.” In
argued. (See Figure 2)
managing the growth of this large, sprawling economy of
over a billion people, there is certainly no room for
Unfortunately, India’s record so far is patchy, he reckoned.
complacency.
India can do better. The battle to get the economy in
shape to sustain 10% growth is inextricably linked to the
drive to improve state and national competitiveness. While
making workhorse sectors perform better and more
efficiently, India needs to find new sources of growth. This
means making it easier for companies to access capital
and encouraging capable enterprises to go global to hone
their competitiveness. It means further reform of the
financial services sector, including the deepening of the
bond markets. (See Figure 3) It means modernizing the
retail sector to trigger a consumer revolution with the
participation of international players such as Wal-Mart and

Figure 3. India’s Corporate Bond Market Lagging
Figure 2. States Perceived as Most Corrupt Tend
to Have Lower Per Capita State GDP

14

Infrastructure Development

“We are cutting red tape “There is progress, but a lot
and rolling out the red more needs to be done.”
carpet.”
Peter Bakker, Chief Executive
Vilasrao Deshmukh Officer, TNT, Netherlands; Co-
Chief Minister of Maharashtra, Chair, India Economic Summit
India 2006

Poor infrastructure may be the single most important For the nation’s teeming cities, the government has
issue India faces. Despite impressive economic created a US$ 110 million programme to revamp
growth, India’s dilapidated roads, congested ports, urban infrastructure in exchange for legal reforms. The
inadequate power and labyrinth of state regulations state of Maharashtra, for example, will repeal a law
are braking development. It can take up to eight days restricting land ownership, said Vilasrao Deshmukh,
to truck goods from Kolkata to Mumbai. Steven Okun, Chief Minister of Maharashtra, India, to gain roughly
Vice-President, Public Affairs, UPS, Singapore, said it US$ 80 million in infrastructure funding for Mumbai.
took him more time to travel from Delhi to Mumbai
than to go from Singapore to Hong Kong. Such “There is progress, but a lot more needs to be done,”
experiences do little to encourage investment. said Peter Bakker, Chief Executive Officer, TNT,
Netherlands and Summit Co-Chair. Indeed, the list of
Improving India’s infrastructure would propel economic areas where India needs to invest is only growing, as
growth, create jobs, boost domestic consumption, antiquated infrastructure creaks under the burden
lower costs and stimulate exports. If its infrastructure imposed by accelerating growth.
were better, the country’s impoverished rural sector
could even be transformed into a leading exporter. On Burgeoning trade and travel have clogged India’s
the other hand, if infrastructure improvements ports and rail system. Customs facilities, likewise,
continue to lag, foreign investment could stall and need to operate around the clock. Power demand is
development would concentrate in service industries
such as IT outsourcing. This would exacerbate income
disparities, feed social pressures and raise the
potential for unrest. Figure 1. Wealthier States Tend to Have Broader
Power Grids
The government has ambitious plans to improve the
situation. Montek S. Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman,
Planning Commission, India, outlined the
government’s aim, as detailed in its 11th Five-Year
Plan, to raise infrastructure spending from 4.7% to 8%
of GDP. The government has committed to developing
35 new airports by 2009 and has embarked on a
project to add 6,000 kilometres of highways connecting
Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata and Mumbai. And, recognizing
the link between a broad power grid and state wealth,
the government announced in October it will sell stakes
in its four largest power companies to help finance
expansion of the nation’s power supply. (See Figure 1)

15

“We’re amazed by the “Over the next 30 to 40 years we’ll be building a new
achievements made by
Delhi every year,” said Ashok Khosla, Chairman,
India over the past 10
years.” Development Alternatives, India. “There are plenty of
places we can go to put our cities that won’t compete
Hoang Trung Hai
Minister of Industry of Vietnam with agriculture.”

The government estimates it will need US$ 350 billion to
meet the goals of the five-year plan, at least US$ 100
billion of which will need to come from private investors.
But many investors remain uncertain about whether the
rewards of investing in infrastructure projects that could
span decades will compensate them for the risks of
partnering with governments who face election pressures
surging, yet half of the country’s villages still lack electricity every few years.
and industry cannot rely on the existing power grid. India
depends on expensive imported oil and polluting This mismatch in performance horizons is made trickier
domestic coal, yet natural gas-fired plants operate below by the fact that governments – both state and national –
capacity for want of fuel. More investment is needed in want to retain control over key public assets. As a result,
finding domestic sources of natural gas and building infrastructure aims will require public-private partnerships
networks to distribute it to consumers. that bridge the gap in expectations. India is establishing
special economic zones as one solution; another
The nation’s water supply is shrinking and India needs suggestion is the creation of special purpose vehicles that
billions of dollars in irrigation pumps, dams, rainwater would provide investors with a single public partner able
harvesting facilities, water treatment and desalination to cut through the red tape for them.
plants. (See Figure 2)
Turning over more of the task of financing and executing
Villages need schools and all but the top universities are big infrastructure projects would leave more money for
in disrepair. India’s cities require a massive overhaul of governments to spend on India’s social infrastructure,
their transport and waste systems, yet are growing so fast improving education and healthcare, said Ajay Dua,
that some participants recommended India should begin Secretary, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion,
scouting out sites to start building cities from scratch. Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India. (See Figure 3)

Figure 3. Commitment to Social Safety
Figure 2. Access to Renewable Water Dropping
Net Varies by State

16

India also needs to develop more robust financial
Investors say more also needs to be done to remove
markets, particularly a market for corporate bonds, to
impediments to investment, including reducing
expand its fund-raising capabilities and better spread
regulations, lowering taxes, eliminating subsidies and
project risk. Deregulating the insurance industry would
harmonizing the various forms of all three which they
help, as would putting more of India’s state-controlled
encounter from state to state. “We need to create an
banks under private management. “We’re all so
Indian common economic market,” said Summit Co-
euphoric about our stock market today, but we have a
Chair Nandan M. Nilekani, President, Chief Executive
non-existent debt market,” said Gautam Thapar,
Officer and Managing Director, Infosys Technologies,
Chairman, Ballarpur Industries, India. “If we only have
India.
half a financial market, we’re not going to get the
investment we need.”

India’s Supply Chain Challenge

Whether it is hand-woven saris from Madhya Pradesh or cow’s KOLKATA TO MUMBAI – 2,150 km (The Economist,
milk from Punjab, getting any product from one point to another 3 June 2006)
in India can be a trial. Consider a typical truck run from Kolkata to
Mumbai, a distance of approximately 2,150 km. The trip can take WEDNESDAY 14.00
about eight days, including stops at state borders to pay tariffs The lorry is loaded in Kolkata. It cannot depart because of day-
and fees and complete formalities or to wait for crossings to time road restrictions on heavy vehicles.
open, as well as other delays. No wonder 40% of India’s produce
spoils before delivery (see column opposite). THURSDAY 04.00
The lorry reaches National Highway 6 after a traffic jam within the
India urgently needs reliable and efficient supply chains – not just city.
so that fashionable Delhi ladies can pick out a traditional
Chanderi sari from their local boutique, or the school child in THURSDAY 20.00
Chennai can get his daily carton of Nestlé milk. A good supply The lorry reaches the border between West Bengal and Jharkard.
chain, of course, benefits the consumer. Goods are fresher, more The border is closed for the night.
choice is available, and prices should be lower. A modern
retailing industry can develop, creating jobs in both urban and FRIDAY 05.00
rural areas, though perhaps at the expense of some of the The lorry joins the border queue and it takes two hours to clear
millions of small convenience shops that have so far been the the documents and two more to clear the border.
main retailing experience most Indians have had. “Retail has the
potential to be an absolute revolution just like what we achieved FRIDAY 18.00
in telecom,” said Mukesh Ambani, Chairman and Managing After a 200km journey across Orissa, the lorry stops for the night
Director, Reliance Industries Limited, India; Co-Chair of the India as the road is closed due to the threat of attacks by bandits or
Economic Summit. Maoist insurgents.

But the real dividend will be at the front end of the supply chain. SATURDAY 05.00
Better, more efficient infrastructure, transport, storage, handling After a 12 hour drive to reach the Chhattisgarh border, there is a
and distribution will cut down the middlemen and bring buyers, four hour queue to cross the border, which is open at night.
retailers and consumers closer to the farmers or the weavers. In
the food sector, this will empower the farmer and transform the SUNDAY 06.00
rural economy. “There is a huge mindset change,” explained The lorry arrives in Maharshtra and must go through 12 toll
Ambani, whose company in November 2006 launched its first booths and inspection points (on top of the previous 14).
retailing venture, opening 11 stores in Hyderabad under the
brand ‘Reliance Fresh’. “Corporations wouldn’t go directly to the TUESDAY 10.00
farmer. All that is gone and I see a huge amount of enthusiasm. The lorry arrives in Mumbai and the driver telephones the Octroi
We have the potential to increase the income of the farmer agent to get forms processed which takes all night.
multifold.” Increasing farmers’ incomes will contribute significantly
to boosting equitable growth in a country that, for all its recent WEDNESDAY 10.00
success in IT services, remains predominantly an agricultural The lorry reaches the customer.
economy.
TOTAL
8 days; an average 11 km/hr; 32 hours waiting at toll booths and
check points.

17

Risk Management

“Every risk is an “Our intensity of energy
opportunity for innovation usage has to come down.”
and change. Risk gives
impetus for technological R. Seshasayee
change so I would regard Managing Director
risks not merely as risks Ashok Leyland
but as opportunities to India
move ahead at a swifter President of the Confederation
pace.” of Indian Industry

Palaniappan Chidambaram,
Minister of Finance of India

The risks to India’s progress span the development Chidambaram, Minister of Finance of India. “But our
spectrum, from the immediate perils of poor nations to democracy is a great pressure valve.”
the long-term challenges of affluent economies. While
problems of water, the rural poor and disease have India needs to improve its educational systems from the
plagued India since before independence, they are being primary level through to the universities. Industry needs to
joined by modern-day challenges, including volatile oil play its part as well, providing vocational training and
prices, the threat of international protectionism and global helping universities design more practical studies.
climate change. Companies can also play an important role in rural
development by helping to set up schools, creating agro-
The potential impact of these problems rises as the ventures or helping local government beef up their
economy grows. So India’s early stage of development technological capabilities.
gives it the chance to confront them early and devise
novel solutions. “Every risk is an opportunity for innovation Added to India’s burden is the scourge of HIV and
and change,” said Palaniappan Chidambaram, Minister of tuberculosis. The government estimates that as many as
Finance of India. 5.7 million Indians are HIV-positive and almost 2 million
have TB, with many cases unreported as the two mutually
One of the greatest risks is the one posed by India’s reinforcing diseases spread beyond high-risk groups. The
young and growing population. If India fails to adequately government has shifted from preaching abstinence to
feed, school and employ this swelling group, its distributing condoms and now offers free HIV treatment
“demographic dividend” could become a demographic and a TB programme that is reckoned as one of the
disadvantage. Later, India will face the same problem now world’s most successful.
vexing Europe and Japan – how to support an ageing
population. The government aims to increase spending on healthcare,
but this an area where companies can play a direct role:
As many as two-thirds of India’s population live in a there are no restrictions to private sector investment in
shrinking agricultural sector, uneducated and unskilled, healthcare. Ultimately, though, one of the most powerful
driving more into the cities by the year. Thus, even as weapons will be overcoming taboos to increase
companies complain of a skills shortage, growing awareness.
disparities in income could stoke social unrest.
The collapse of the Doha Round has underscored the
growing risk to India, among others, of a rise in
Ultimately, India’s democracy may prove the lever that
protectionism, which could hurt India’s trade in goods and
forces policy-makers to address these needs and avert a
services. “The great champions of globalization have
social crisis. “If you don’t have democracy, there is a
started shirking it, but we in India trumpet globalization
grave danger of social unrest,” said Palaniappan

18

because we are getting globally competitive,” said “There are gas projects
we’ve had to put on hold
Kamal Nath, Minister for Commerce and Industry. But
due to volatility in prices
India faces its own backlash if the poor continue to be and uncertainty in
availability of gas.”
left behind by globalization.
T. Sankaralingam, Chairman and
Managing Director, NTPC, India
India should deepen its relationships with the EU and
US, but also with its immediate neighbours to raise its
clout in trade negotiations. “To be at the global table
you must be able to carry the region,” said Rajat M.
Nag, Director-General, Southeast Asia Department
and Special Adviser to the President, Asian
Development Bank, Manila. (See Figure 1)

India is particularly vulnerable to an oil price shock.
Though it lies close to rich gas fields and relies on
domestic coal for most of its energy, India is a net oil
importer and subsidizes fuel prices. India is already
Perhaps the biggest risk facing India, however, is the
short of natural gas. “There are gas projects we’ve
impact of global climate change, particularly on its
had to put on hold due to volatility in prices and
worsening water situation. India already suffers from
uncertainty in availability of gas,” said T.
the effects of deforestation and air pollution thanks to
Sankaralingam, Chairman and Managing Director,
its reliance on coal. Droughts and floods are on the
NTPC, India.
rise and glaciers are retreating. The impact of these
problems globally appears to be contributing to more
Chidambaram estimated that high oil prices cost India
severe weather, potentially affecting the monsoons
roughly 1 percentage point of annual economic
that are critical to the nation’s agriculture and water
growth. India needs to secure its energy supply, invest
supply.
in a strategic oil reserve and start taking stakes in
foreign supplies as China has done. It must continue
Shortages of water pose perhaps the greatest risk of
to develop alternative sources of energy at home,
social unrest. Almost a third of India’s people lack
such as solar, wind and biofuel. Equally important,
access to quality drinking water and the numbers are
India needs to waste less energy. “Our intensity of
growing as water supplies shrink. “That is a shocking
energy usage has to come down,” said R.
indictment,” said Ravi Narayanan, Adviser, Arghyam
Seshasayee, Managing Director, Ashok Leyland, India,
Foundation, India. (See Figure 2)
and President of the Confederation of Indian Industry.

Figure 1. Trade with US and ASEAN Nations Rising Figure 2. Overall Water Supplies Falling Behind

19

In addition to massive investments in water-related
infrastructure such as desalination plants and drip
irrigation, policies should discourage the growth of water- Spread of HIV and TB Threaten
intensive crops in dry areas. Cities must conserve and India’s Economy
recycle water to reduce their burden on rural supplies.
Mechanisms also need to be developed to price water to The spread of HIV/AIDS in India, fuelled by co-infection with
reflect its scarcity. tuberculosis, is threatening India’s economy. The Minister of
Finance of India, Palaniappan Chidambaram identified the
HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis risks listed in the World
Economic Forum’s India@Risk 2006 report as having the
The Environment Risk to Growth
most “frightening propensity to get out of hand.”

India carries the highest burden of the twin epidemics of HIV
Environmental concerns ranked high on the agenda of
and TB which are predicted to be a significant drag on
India’s decision-makers at the India Economic Summit.
India’s future economic growth as they continue to affect
Vulnerability to climate change and a decline in freshwater
millions of working age adults, reducing workforces,
quantity and quality in particular were at the core of
diminishing productivity and cutting household incomes.
concerns discussed. Water issues, warned Indian Finance
Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, are the biggest risk to
The World Economic Forum’s India Business Alliance to Stop
India’s development. Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje of
TB (IBA) is a model private sector response to the disease
Rajasthan highlighted the challenges of balancing efficient
which kills more than 1,000 people a day in India. Judging
pricing with equitable access, and Ralph Peterson, Chairman
by the early successes of the IBA, which is the world’s
and Chief Executive Officer, CH2M Hill Companies, USA,
largest private sector effort to control TB, tackling the illness
proposed models for downstream financing of upstream
is an achievable goal. The IBA was set up in 2004 by the
efficiency.
World Economic Forum’s Global Health Initiative (GHI) to
increase the involvement of the private sector in TB control.
India’s place in the global fight to mitigate climate change
remains unclear, with significant resistance to emission cuts
32 Indian companies joined forces under the auspices of
being balanced by real opportunities to benefit from Clean
GHI in partnership with the Revised National TB Control
Development Mechanism projects. Whatever role India plays,
Programme, the Confederation of Indian Industry, the World
the threat posed by a warming climate is real for the region
Health Organization and the Stop TB Partnership in an
and poses particular risks to Indian agriculture and communities
Alliance that now reaches more than 4 million people.
exposed to flooding, a development reflected in increased
interest in agricultural risk management tools. (See Figure 1)

Figure 1. Insurance Covering a Larger Portion of
Agricultural Land during the Monsoon Season

India Business Alliance to Stop TB: achievements
since 2004

• More than 4 million people reached with TB control
programmes
• More than 7,000 people now on TB treatment
Mitigating these environmental risks will be an essential part
• 32 companies now committed to TB control activities
of ensuring the sustainable growth of India’s economy and
• Leading companies: Reliance, TATA, Aditya Birla involved
building a more equitable and dynamic subcontinent.
• Unique public private partnership model with business as
healthcare provider

20

The Creative Imperative in India

Since its Annual Meeting 2006 in Davos, the World
“Science and technology is
Economic Forum has been pursuing the “creative the key for innovation and
economic growth. But also
imperative” through the interactive sessions and
important is social
workshops in regional meetings across the globe,
innovation, changing
including this year’s India Economic Summit. The aim mindset to take risks.”
is to tap the combined knowledge of Forum partners,
Kiyoshi Kurokawa, Science
members and meeting participants – business,
Adviser to the Prime Minister,
government and civil society leaders from around the and Professor, National
Graduate Institute for Policy
world – to identify innovative approaches to
Studies (GRIPS), Japan
addressing international issues and problems, from
the lack of water to ageing demographics, from
imbalances in the global economy to the threat of
terrorism. Many of these captured ideas will fuel the
discussions and brainstorming at the Annual Meeting
2007 and help shape its agenda.

Efforts must be made to address the problem of
These are some examples of the creative ideas and
unemployment among graduates and postgraduates
out-of-box insights that participants at the India
in rural areas who are unable to get a job. Not attuned
Economic Summit discussed in New Delhi:
to urban living, they are similarly unsuited to village life
or rural employment. The private sector should make
State and National Competitiveness
use of these talents in their efforts to develop rural
It is critical for India to shape its competitive niches in
markets.
the global economy. It must further cultivate the
comparative advantage it has already exploited in the
India and its neighbours should do more to promote
business process outsourcing market. This means
South Asia as an economically integrated region. “We
producing high-quality goods and services at a low
really underplay our neighbourhood at our own cost,”
cost. India can collaborate with developed countries
said Rajiv Kumar, Chief Executive and Director, Indian
to “extend” the niche competitiveness of those
Council for Research on International Economic
economies. Indian Minister of Science and Technology
Relations (ICRIER), India. “The region from Chittagong
and Earth Sciences Kipal Sibal, for example, has
(in Bangladesh) to Kabul (in Afghanistan) is and will
proposed to Norway that it set up marine engineering
remain an integrated economic space – trade,
training facilities in India and then outsource business
migration, population, the labour force. We [India] take
to trained Indian personnel. This would allow Norway
responsibility for building that economic space. If
to maintain its leading position in the marine
others are afraid of our size, we must make them feel
engineering sector, while providing new skills to Indian
secure.”
workers. As Minister Sibal put it: “You build your
future; we build our human capital.” Such collaborative
To create an Indian common market, a single point-of-
arrangements would provide India with the know-how
departure process should replace the repeated
it requires such as energy conservation techniques
formalities and levies on cross-border commerce and
and technology.
traffic. Ways should be explored to divide the
revenues fairly among states with valid claims.
“India has to focus on how to monetize innovation. The cost
of failure is low in India and that is something we should use
to our advantage.”

Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw
Chairperson and Managing Director, Biocon India, India

21

Risk Management
Managing Growth
“India is being robbed of at least 1% growth because of
While some accomplished Indian academics, engineers
high oil prices,” said Palaniappan Chidambaram, the
and scientists who have gone abroad have returned,
Minister of Finance of India. He called for oil-producing
many still do not come home, unwilling to accept local
countries to meet high oil-consuming nations, proposing
pay scales and conditions. The proposed legislation to
that the two groups set a pricing band for petroleum.
allow foreign educational institutions to enter the Indian
Chidambaram also called on developed countries to
market could provide a mechanism for attracting Indian
provide funding and technology to developing economies
R&D talent back. But this initiative will have to be
to help them reduce energy consumption and increase
bolstered by new grant programmes, investment from the
energy efficiency.
private sector in education and the creation of public-
private partnerships to support higher learning and
India needs to examine new ways of water conservation
research.
such as rain harvesting in urban areas.
To empower women and expand opportunities for them in
the workplace, Indian companies should consider
adapting flexible work schemes that have been used in
countries such as Japan that have also had to address
gender inequality.

Infrastructure Development
To construct the infrastructure India needs will require
investment of US$ 350 billion over the next five years. As
the government will not be able to provide all the
necessary funding, the private sector will have to cover
the shortfall. In a session on financial markets,
participants discussed the need for alternative sources of
capital. Deregulation of the insurance sector and pension
reforms could unlock funds that may then be invested in
infrastructure development. In addition, the creation of
dedicated public vehicles for investing in infrastructure
projects would centralize the tendering and approval
process, thereby eliminating the confusion investors
typically face.

The Key Challenges Ahead: R. Seshasayee, Mohamed A. Alabbar, Kamal Nath, Michael Rake, Nandan M. Nilekani and Graham Mackay

22

Acknowledgements

The India Economic Summit is held in cooperation with the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).

The World Economic Forum wishes to acknowledge the support of the following companies as Partners:

Strategic Partners Summit Supporters

Accenture CH2M HILL
AIG Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion,
AMD Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India
Apax Partners Emaar
Audi Financial Technologies
Avaya India Brand Equity Foundation
Bain & Company SABMiller
Bombardier TNT NV
BT
Cisco Systems
Citigroup Service Provider
The Coca-Cola Company
Deloitte Taj Palace Hotel
Deutsche Bank
Ernst & Young
Intel Corporation
KPMG
Manpower
Marsh & McLennan Companies The World Economic Forum would also like to
Merck & Co. thank Kamal Nath, Minister of Commerce and
Merrill Lynch Industry, and Vilasrao Deshmukh, Chief Minister of
Metro Maharashtra for their generous hosting of activities
Nestlé during the India Economic Summit.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Siemens

Regional Partners

GeoPost International
UPS

23

Contributors

Peter Torreele is Managing Director of the World Economic Forum. Lee Howell is Director, Head of Asia,
at the Forum. The India Economic Summit was under his direct responsibility, with Colette Mather,
Senior Adviser, South Asia; Shruti Bhatia, Senior Manager, India; Satyadeep Rajan, Senior Member
Relations Manager, Asia; and Samantha Gianora, Event Manager, Summit Coordinator.

Samantha Tonkin, Senior Media Manager at the World Economic Forum worked with Wayne Arnold and
Alejandro Reyes to produce this report.

The World Economic Forum would like to express its appreciation to the summary writers for their work
at the Summit. Session summaries are available at www.weforum.org.

Associate Principal, Editing: Nancy Tranchet

Design and Layout: Kamal Kimaoui, Associate Principal, Production and Design

Photographs: Prabhas Roy

Special thanks to PricewaterhouseCoopers for their help in preparing data and statistics underpinning
this report.

24

The World Economic Forum is an independent
international organization committed to improving
the state of the world by engaging leaders in
partnerships to shape global, regional and
industry agendas.

Incorporated as a foundation in 1971, and based
in Geneva, Switzerland, the World Economic
Forum is impartial and not-for-profit; it is tied to
no political, partisan or national interests.
(www.weforum.org)

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