Watch presentation at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYO1pGE3kBs
View From The Bridge: Game Apps Opportunities in 2013 by Microsoft UK's Andrew Spooner. These are the source data slides he used at Gaming Reimagined 2013 in Dublin
8. WHAT IS GAMETRACK?
APPS ONLINE PACKAGED
FREE APPS SOCIAL DISC/CART
PAID APPS FREE DOWNLOAD NEW
PAID EXTRAS PAID DOWNLOAD PRE OWNED
PAID EXTRAS RENTAL
MULTIPLAYER
BROWSER
TIME SPENT ACQUISITION VALUE
9. HOW DO WE DO IT?
MONTHLY FIELDWORK PER MARKET
1,000 Nat Rep 1,000 Online
Face to Face Rep
SAMPLES COMBINED AND
WEIGHTED TO BE NATIONALLY
REPRESENTATIVE AGED 6+ REPORTING QUARTERLY PER
MARKET ON 6,000+ INTERVIEWS
24,000 INTERVIEWS PER QUARTER
ACROSS EUROPE
from Q3 2012 from Q1 2013 9
11. WHAT ARE THE MAIN FORMS OF GAMING?
Base: all 6+ population
% Play... Q3 2012 Q4 ‘11
Any video gaming 20m people 35% 38%
ANY Packaged 22% 26%
ANY Apps 14% 12%
ANY Online 19% 18%
Downloads 8% 8%
Social 8% 8%
Multiplayer 8% 8%
Browser game sites 8% 6%
11
13. % PLAY ANY PACKAGED GAMES
Base: all 6+ population
100%
% Play... % Q3 2012
75%
% Q4 2011
PACKAGED
50%
25%
0%
6 to 10 11 to 14 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45+
% point
-1% +5% -5% -7% -9% -2%
Change 13
14. % PLAY ANY APP GAMES
Base: all 6+ population
100%
% Play... % Q3 2012
75%
% Q4 2011
APPS
50%
25%
0%
6 to 10 11 to 14 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45+
% point +9% +11% +1% +2% +2% +2%
Change 14
15. % PLAY ANY ONLINE GAMES
Base: all 6+ population
100%
% Play... % Q3 2012
75%
% Q4 2011
ONLINE
50%
25%
0%
6 to 10 11 to 14 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45+
% point
+6% +4% +2% +1% -2% +1%
change 15
17. WHAT DEVICES ARE BEING USED
TO GAME ON?
Base: all 6+ population
% Play devices... Q3 2012 Q4 ‘2011
Play any device 20m people 35% 38%
CONSOLES 24% 27%
COMPUTERS 24% 26%
SMARTPHONE / iPODs 18% 17%
PORTABLES 11% 12%
TABLETS 7% 4%
17
19. % SHARE OF TOTAL MARKET: VALUE
Base: 11+ in the UK,
% SHARE OF
TOTAL VALUE
£972m £292m £235m £321m
ONLINE
APPS
PACKAGED
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
19
20. % SHARE OF TOTAL MARKET: VOLUME
Base: 11+ in the UK,
% SHARE OF
VOLUME
93m 49m 40m 51m
ONLINE
APPS
PACKAGED
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
20
21. % SHARE OF TOTAL MARKET: GAMING TIME
Base: 11+ in the UK,
% SHARE TOTAL GAMING TIME IN TYPICAL WEEK
154m 155m 160m 156m
hrs/wk hrs/wk hrs/wk hrs/wk
ONLINE
APPS
PACKAGED
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
21
22. WHAT IS DRIVING THE SHARE OF TIME IN THE
GAMES MARKET?
% SHARE TOTAL
GAMING TIME
Q3 2012
Portable 5% Console
PS3 11%
Downloads 7% 34%
Paid Free Console Xbox 360 X%
Console X% X% Game sites 5% Wii X%
PC X% X% PC/Mac Other
Social 11% 12% X%
Other X% X%
Total X% X%
156m
Multiplayer 11% hrs/wk
Other
Other
Android 4% Paid Free
X% X%
iOS 10% Paid Free
X% X%
22
24. WHERE IS THE MARKET NOW?
Base: all 11+ population
Size of the bubble is the share total value of market
Q3 2012
PLAY REACH - % PLAY IN POPULATION
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
TIME SPENT – % SHARE OF TOTAL GAMER HOURS
24
D2, B3
26. IN SUMMARY
Gaming is an increasingly complex and currently fragmented market
Kids embrace multiple gaming formats, indicating where the market is heading
What drives market VALUE is not the same as what drives VOLUME and TIME
Market dynamics shifting: low revenue formats take significant share of time
HOW WILL THESE DYNAMICS TREND OVER TIME AND WHAT ARE THE LONG
TERM IMPACTS?
26
27. February 2013
Thriving in the Mobile First Economy
Richard Firminger, GM, EMEA
28. Topics
Flurry Background and Services
App Consumption Trends WW
Freemium, Virtual Goods, Advertising & ARPDAU
Loyalty Matrix by Games Genre
29. Flurry Track Record
Number 1 Mobile Reach
Monthly Unique Users 850M
Number 1 Analytics
Application Developers 95K
Applications 290K
Monthly Unique
74B
Sessions
Number 2 Ad Network
Monthly Clips 130M
30. Flurry Two-Sided Advertising Platform
• Publishers: Direct, Indirect, desk-traded ad monetization
• Advertisers: Ad effectiveness, measurement and ROI analysis
• Built-in network effects
31. Unstoppable Market Growth
Worldwide in-application events measured by Flurry (billions)
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12
Source: Flurry Analytics, May 2008 – November 2012, Billions
32. Competition for Consumers Continues to Increase
Over 1.4 million available apps on iOS and Android
GOOGLE PLAY iTUNES APP STORE 700
675
650
600 600
500
460
425
400
350
250 250
200
160
80
28 20
2
March 2009 December 2009 August 2010 May 2011 July 2011 October 2011 April 2012 June 2012 September 2012
Sources: Google, Apple; number in thousands
33. Addressable Market to Surpass 1 Billion Next Year
Active smartphone & tablet devices
Total Addressable Market
Aggressive: 5B WW Mobile Device Owners
Conservative: 2B WW Adults, Middle Class or higher
1.1 B
Upside:
Smartphones – dropping prices, especially Android
Tablets – little replacement, mainly new; sub for PCs
Connected TVs – to be shipped
Reference:
800 M
2.3 Billion Internet Subscribers today
331 M
76 M
23 M
Aug 2009 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Aug 2012 Aug 2013E
Source: Flurry Analytics
34. A Global Phenomenon
Top Countries by Active iOS & Android Devices (millions)
181
167
35 28 27 22 19 19 14 14
US China UK Japan S. Korea Germany France Canada Brazil Spain
Source: Flurry Analytics active devices Oct 2012
35. 30+ Countries Doubled in Last 12 Months
Fastest Growing iOS & Android Markets by Active Devices
293%
269% 260%
235%
209% 202% 197%
181% 180% 180%
China Vietnam Colombia Chile Ukraine Venezuela Turkey Philippines Egypt Russia
Source: Flurry Analytics, Oct 2011 – Oct 2012, countries with at least 500k active devices as of Oct 2011
36. App Economy Expanding Internationally
Distribution of iOS and Android App Sessions
100%
25%
90%
80% 32%
70%
60% 27%
50% 39%
40%
48%
30%
20%
10% 29%
0%
Oct 2011 Oct 2012
UNITED STATES (TOP RANK) REST OF TOP 10 (RANKS 2 – 9) REST OF WORLD
Source: Flurry Analytics
37. How Mobile Stacks Up Against TV and The Web
Web vs. Mobile App vs. TV Consumption, Minutes per Day
180
160
140 162 168 168
120
100
127
80
94
60
40
70 66 72 70
20
-
Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012
Web Browsing Mobile Applications Television
Sources: comScore, Alexa, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Flurry Analytics
38. Tablet Usage More Games & Entertainment Oriented
Time Spent per Category, Smartphones versus Tablets
Productivity
Entertainment News 1%
3% 2%
Other Other
Lifestyle Utilities
11% 7%
3% 4%
Health &
Fitness
Games Entertainment
3%
39% 9%
Social
Utilities Networking
17% 10%
Games
67%
Social
Networking
24%
Smartphones Tablets
40. Gaming: Money, Midcore and Maturity
ARPDAU among top 1,000 grossing iOS free-to-play games
Over $0.75, 3%
Over $0.75,
$0.25 - $0.75 15%
15%
Under $0.25,
53%
$0.25 - $0.75
Under $0.25,
32%
82%
Sep 2011 Sep 2012
Source: Flurry Analytics, 480 free-to-play games
At the overall level it is interesting to see levels of gaming but how do these levels differ by AGE
The idea – dev should consider the METRICS and DEMOGRAPHICS of genresDo RESOURCES and capabilities align? Your DESIGNER has a kick-ass PvP or Endless Runner. Can you address the PREDICTABLE behaviors of that genre? Can you Acquire, Retain, and Monetize? Optimizing a game, team, and live operations AROUND METRICS. Should be CRITICAL to business strategy Going to give MARKET data to set context. Then new RESEARCH. research we just released this morning on the specific retention, usage metrics, and demographics of nine of the most popular free2play genres.
This overcrowding increased the competition for consumers. There has beenan explosion in the number of apps across Android and iOS. Today, there are over a million unique apps to choose from. With this kind of competition for shelf space and consumers, no wonder discovery is top of mind for every developer around the world.
487 in Feb519 in March529 in April
With all these apps…FEAR not…games STILL RULE rule!Phones productive 20% of time. LESS on tablets. These are GAMING devices! SUPERCELL is tablet-first. iPad = iPhone revenue
Recently, Flurry examined key loyalty metrics for a wide range of apps. PEEL the ONION on the games category. Examine GENRESHow do METRICS differ? WHO is playing each?
Quadrant 1 - “sweet spot” – used INTENSIVELY for long DURATION. Manyimpressions, but also IAP. APPOINTMENT mechanics to maintain and progress their experience. SOCIAL mechanics + CLASSIC gameplay “evergreen” gameplay for Social Turn-Based. RE-ENGAGEMENTQuad 2 – STRATEGY. not for FAINT ofheartThe audience is DEMANDING,lifecycles are short, LIVE SERVICES must be flawless. MVP not good enoughPvP and PACEChurn through CONTENT quickly. Have content readyQuad 3 – FICKLE and fewer sessions to monetizeCard-Battle impressive given short timeframe. TARGETED user acquisition. Most drop off quickly due to the “hardcore”Quad 4 – EASY, REPEATABLE for years. Low IAP b/c lack DEPTHSubstantialADVERTISING X-PROMO
Quadrant I middle-aged FEMALES, attractive retention and usage metrics. Quadrant II - males GRADUATE to poker Quadrant III – HOT sector. Young, male “core” gamers coming to the devices and opening WALLETSDifficult to corral, but can monetize amazingly. Quadrant IV - younger females, more INVOLVED gameplay than middle-agedYOUNGEST quick solo experience of the Endless genreLatetwenties / early thirties use gameplay mechanics and SOCIAL