Presented by Jefferson County Planning and Zoning Departments at EPAN GIS User Group Meeting in August 2013.

1. Predicting Future Growth from
Unbuilt Lots
Chris Whittaker-Jefferson County
Planning and Zoning Departments
Clay Raines-Jefferson County Planning
and Zoning Departments

2. Background Information
• Growth of Jefferson County’s population
– 49% population growth between 1990 and 2010 (from
35,926 residents in 1990 to 53,498 in 2010)
• In early 2000’s, over 1,000 residential lots per year
were approved by the Jefferson County Planning
Commission
• Large number of building permits obtained in early
2000’s in Jefferson County
– Peaked in 2003, just before impact fees were enacted.
• Impact fees pay for needed infrastructure required by new
development
• In Jefferson County: Schools, Parks, Police, and Fire Services.
• Slightly more than $13,000 per typical single family home

4. A Couple of Newer Subdivisions
Huntfield in Charles TownBreckenridge North Subdivision

5. Gaining an Understanding
of the Existing Conditions
• Envision Jefferson 2035 Comprehensive Plan
– Enabled under §8A of WV Code
– Updated every 10 years
• Envision Jefferson 2035 is update of 2004
Comprehensive Plan
– Looks at existing conditions to gain an
understanding of issues
– Creation of Goals and Objectives
– Recommendations
– Required and Optional Topic Areas

6. Envision Jefferson 2035 Components
Per WV code 8A-3-4, the Comprehensive Plan SHALL HAVE,
but is not limited to, the following components:
Land Use Housing Transportation
Infrastructure Public Services Rural
Recreation Economic
Development
Community Design
Preferred
Development Areas
Renewal and/or
Redevelopment
Financing
Historic Preservation
6
Optional Components (Proposed to be included in 2014
Plan):
History Environmental Tourism
Conservation Safety Natural Resource Use

7. Existing Land Use Map
• Existing Land Use Map for Jefferson County
– First for County
– Shows state of development that is on the ground and
the locations of larger approved/unbuilt subdivisions
– Created using a number of tools
• County Assessors data
• Analysis of aerial and satellite photos
• Analysis of existing subdivision plats
• Ground truthing
• Public input at workshops and other meetings

9. Issues
• Tracking the number and status of approved
and unbuilt residential building lots
– Similar to many smaller communities and
communities without adequate public facilities
ordinance
• Ensures that existing capacity is available for
transportation, sewer/water, schools, parks, etc.
– Creates a gap between understanding what
development might be accommodated on existing
lots and where new development might occur.

10. Why Concern about Unbuilt Lots
• While lots may be approved, changes in housing
market might impact the marketability of some
lots/subdivisions
• Numerous subdivisions are subject to provisions of
§8A-5-12 of WV Code
– “Zombie subdivisions” allows developer of approved plats
to maintain development rights until July 1, 2012 or later
depending on local government.
– Many of these subdivisions were slated to be built before
2007-2008 housing/credit crisis
– Kept alive by intervention from State Legislature or local
government
• Jefferson County extended cutoff date is July 1, 2015

11. Zombie Subdivision
Aspen Greens, Located off of Flowing Springs Rd.

12. What we are doing?
• Creating a map and database showing all
unbuilt residential and non-residential lots in
major and minor subdivisions
• Assessing potential build-out of Jefferson
County based on approved and unbuilt
residential and non-residential lots

13. Creation of Unbuilt Lots Map

14. The Start
• Working from an existing subdivisions
database created by Meghan Hammond a
previous intern.
• The majority of the subdivisions were
completed in phases, and each record was
recorded in sequence
– This means my records originally started as nearly
650 major subdivision polygons and 1300 minor
subdivisions

15. Trimming the Fat
• Needed to reduce the workload and volume,
but need to maintain record keeping
functionality
• Elected to merge records of same subdivision,
and keep the most recent planfile
• This reduced the number of records as well as
the polygons that needed examined

16. Subdivisions BeforeBefore

17. After

18. Collecting Data
• The next step was trying to find out how
many homes and buildable lots were actually
on the ground in a given subdivision.
• Used assessor’s data to determine the size
and value of a lot, to evaluate its viability
• The total number of approved lots was found
by examining, recorded files, community
impact statements, municipal records and in
select cases the most recent final plat.

19. Typical Subdivision Development

20. Idiot Proof Counting

21. Works Great with larger subdivisions
too

22. The “Mountain”
• The previous strategy worked about 95% of
the time, until I encountered the lots on the
Mountain
• Here a new, more tedious strategy was
adopted.
• Moving alphabetically, I applied the same
strategy as with the traditional subdivisions,
except adopting stricter guidelines on lot size
(depending on location of the subdivision)

23. An Example of the chaos…

24. After Edits

25. Worthwhile process
• Started with nearly 6,000 parcels
• Reduced to under 3,000 by removing parcels
unsuitable for building
• Proceeded to count the remaining lots and
addressed homes on the mountain to obtain
the last of my data

26. Results
• There are a total of 26,417 buildable lots in
Jefferson County, 12,506 are un-built at this
time
– Of the total lots 25,127 are in major subdivisons
– Major subdivisions also include 12,043 of the un-
built lots

27. Distribution of Unbuilt Lots
115
20
34
18
11 13
5 3 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
NumberofSubdivisions
Number of Unbuilt Lots
Frequency of Available Lots in major subdivisions

28. Lots Available

29. Further Plans
• Planning on doing a commercial buildout
potential as well
– Buildout analysis will be done using Community
Viz extension from Placeways LLC
• Obtained zoning for Charles
Town, Ranson, and the county as a whole
– Removed the properties that were already built
on, or did not meet minimum building
requirements

30. Example of Community Viz

31. Applicability of unbuilt lot data
• Aid in subdivision and land use process
• Key component of Envision Jefferson 2035
document
• Use to assess viability of
population/employment projections
– WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research
– Metro Washington Council of Governments
– Hagerstown/Eastern Panhandle MPO
– Projection based on 2010-2012 Census growth

33. Future Land Use Map
• Guide to help developers and public better
understand where growth is targeted over the
next two decades
• Provides greater clarity in comparison to
interpretation of descriptions.
• Based on data and public input
• Helps staff to better understand where zoning
changes might be warranted.

34. Timeline
• Finalization of unbuilt lots (including non-
residential lots) by late August
• Draft Future Land Use Map to be
completed by early 2014
• Final Future Land Use Map will be
included with Envision Jefferson 2035
Comprehensive Plan, to be completed by
the end of 2014

35. More Information
• Envision Jefferson 2035
– www.envisionjefferson2035.com
• Jefferson County Planning and Zoning
– http://www.jeffersoncountywv.org/government/d
epartments/planning-and-zoning-
department.html

36. Thanks for your time

37. Questions?