4. Global: World trade bounces back World trade volumes. 2000=100. Seasonally adjusted. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
5. Financial markets: Fragile 3-month LIBOR/3-month overnight index swap (OIS) spread, percentage points. A higher spread denotes more market stress . Sources: Haver Analytics; Economist Intelligence Unit. Lehman fails Financial markets crash Fed introduces QE Euro zone woes spook markets
6. Policy: No Keynesian free lunch Gross public debt stock as a % of GDP. End-period. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, CountryData .
12. Crises accelerate existing trends GDP, purchasing power parity (PPP) US$ bn. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, CountryData .
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16. The CIVETS: Six to watch for Forecasts are for 2010, as of June 2010. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, CountryData . Population (m) GDP/head (US$, PPP) Inflation (%) Growth (%) C olombia 46.9 8,910 2.9 2.4 I ndonesia 243.0 4,240 5.1 5.6 V ietnam 87.8 3,140 10.5 6.2 E gypt 84.7 5,920 12.2 5.2 T urkey 73.3 12,750 10.1 4.8 S Africa 49.1 10,720 5.8 2.8
20. Where’s the growth? Real GDP growth; % change, year on year. ASEAN = Association of South East Asian Nations. CIS = Russia, Ukraine etc. As of April 2010. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, CountryData .
21. The Middle East – after the windfall Sheikh Zayed Road -1990 Sheikh Zayed Road – 2007
31. Oil economies are in the black … Budget balance, % of GDP Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Yemen Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, MENA RO Country Forecast
32. … and looking good Sovereign wealth funds, % of GDP Sources: SWF Institute
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34. and non-oil economies are in the red Budget DEFICITS, % of GDP Source: Economist Intelligence Unit. Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia .
35. Lots done … Source: World Bank, Doing Business report 2010 .
36. … more to do ( Legal & regulatory risk) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Riskbriefing .
46. Where’s the growth? Real GDP growth; % change, year on year. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, CountryData . 2009 = 9.5% 2010 = 23.3% 2011 = 12.7%
47. More Information? Data and analysis from today’s presentation were taken from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s country analysis and forecasting services. For more information on these services and other EIU capabilities, including risk assessment, industry trends, and economic data, please contact: Economist Intelligence Unit 2 Dubai Media City Tel: + 971 (0) 4 433 4202 Fax: + 971 (0) 4 438 0224