Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy

1. Energy Prospects in
the Mediterranean
Region
The transition is a must
Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal
Energy transition in Europe: different pathways,
same destination?
Rome, 29 May 2013

2. CROSS-ROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS
AND SEVERAL CHALLENGES AHEAD
7% of world population, 500 million people, 90
million more by 2030, nearly all in the South
10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a.
average growth to 2030
8% of world’s primary energy demand
Important energy corridor / energy hub
Several challenges calling for innovative energy
strategies
Security of supply concerns
Financial crisis and important socio-political changes
Particular vulnerability to climate change and its
impacts

3. ENERGY IN THE SMCS – COMMON DRIVERS AND
CHALLENGES AND ALSO DISPARITIES
Common
High demographic development and rapid urbanisation
around the littoral
High economic growth
Access to energy almost of all, efforts are still needed
Energy driver to the socio-economic development
Increasing climate change concerns and effects
Important disparities S/S and also S/N
Availability of conventional energy resources
From exporting to totally importing countries
Large disparities with NMCs

4. DISPARITIES, INTERDEPENDENCY AND
CONVERGENCE TENDENCY
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
80 90 2000 2010
PNM
PSM
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
80 90 2000 2010
PNM
PSM
TPES / capita (toe/cap)
CO2 / capita (tCO2/cap)

5. MEP 2011 - KEY
MESSAGES

6. BUSINESS AS USUAL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE
Current energy trends in the Mediterranean are not
sustainable. Conservative scenario is not an option:
Overall energy demand could grow by 40% to
2030.
CO2 emissions would exceed 3000Mt in 2030, up
from 2200Mt currently.
Electricity boom ahead: average annual growth
rate of about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overall
over 380 GW of additional capacity needed.
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy
mix and natural gas will overtake oil.
High potential for RE & EE not fully exploited

7. Energy for +80 million persons; +73% GDP/head.
Electricity demand to multiply by 3
Overall energy demand &CO2 emissions to double.
HIGH CHALLENGES IN THE SOUTH

8. OPPORTUNITIES …. EE&RE
Carlo Rubbia, aime rappeler que dans le Sahara, il
« pleut » chaque année l’équivalent d’un baril de pétrole
par mètre carré, sous forme de rayonnement solaire

9. THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE PATH
Under a Proactive Scenario:
• Savings in primary (12%) and final energy (10%)
• Overall demand and CO2 emissions just grow 20%
• Less fossil fuel imports, less generation capacity needed
4 500
6 500
8 500
10 500
12 500
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
GDP (billiondollars
(ppps2005))
Mtoe
Proactive Scenario
Conservative Scenario
GDP - 12%
MEDITERRANEANENERGYDEMANDOUTLOOK, byScenarios

10. ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
The future will remain fossil fuel based (70%)
Gas demand could increase by 70%, over 40% in an
alternative scenario
RES can take a relevant share:16% from 8% today
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2009 CS2030 PS2030
Mtoe
Renewables
& Waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

11. HEAVY RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS WILL ENDURE
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Demand Production Demand Production Demand Production
Mtoe
Gas
Oil
Coal
2009 ConservativeScenario2030 ProactiveScenario2030
MEDITERRANEAN FOSSILFUELDEMANDANDPRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Source: OME

12. GAS ERA AND OIL PEAK
Export capacity would substantially increase under
the Proactive Scenario to over 180 bcm in 2030.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Algeria Egypt Libya Israel
bcm
GASEXPORTPOTENTIAL
2010 CS2030 PS2030

13. Electricity demand in the South will nearly triple
by 2030.
MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD
0
1000
2000
3000
1990 2009 Conservative
2030
Proactive
2030
TWh
South
North
MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITYGENERATION
84%
70%
54% 58%
42%
46%
30%
16%

14. 200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand.
32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.
ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDED
INSOUTH& EASTMEDITERRANEAN
16%
14%
5%
17%
6%
5%
49%
50%
40%
3%
6%
18%
14%
15%
2%
13%
28%
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
120GW 321GW 289GWGW
Non - hydroRenewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
2009 2030 PS2030 CS

15. RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
TWh
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Coal
14%
Oil
8%
Gas
33%
Nuclear
25%
Hydro
14%
RES
6%
2010
36%
RES electricity increased by more than 2.5 times in 1990-2010
Renewables are expected to compete directly with natural gas
as the dominant electricity source by 2030 (over 1000 TWh)

16. DIFFERENT DECOUPLING PATTERNS
Energy intensity is decreasing leading to a decoupling
of GDP and energy demand.
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
toe/thousand US$
-
-
MedPS Energy Intensity
MedCS Energy Intensity
-
-
MedPS Electricity intensity
Med CS Electricity intensity
0.08
0.13
0.18
0.23
0.28
KWh/thousand US$
16
Electricity intensity could continue increasing.

17. MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY
10% of the regional energy consumption can be saved
through energy efficiency measures by 2030.
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mtoe
Potential Negatoes
Proactive Total Final Consumption
Conservative Total Final Consumption
Conservative Total Final Consumption
-10%
17

18. OUTLOOK FOR CO2 EMISSIONS
In the Conservative Scenario, CO2 emissions would
increase +40% (reaching 3000Mt) in 2030.
Only +9% in the Proactive scenario (600Mt less).
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt CO2
ConservativeScenario
ProactiveScenario
ConservativeScenario
- 20%
ConservativeScenario
18

19. TO CONCLUDE – COMMON VISION AND
INNOVATIVE & ADAPTED SOLUTIONS
For a successful energy transition targeted by all
Regional cooperation is a must, common vision but
adapted strategies, policies and measures are needed
Considering its high impacts, EE should be given first
priority. RE are also very much needed
An alternative path: possible but pending on actions
and means allowing removal of the existing barriers
Demonstration, capacity building, technology transfer,
best practices exchange, innovative financing schemes …
All energy sources are needed
RDD&I is very much needed and plays a major role in
promoting sustainable and inclusive economic growth
and job creation (very important)
Water, energy and climate change, closely interrelated
and important for the sustainable development in the
region

20. THE WAY FORWARD
Mediterranean countries have a common interest
in preparing together their long-term future
No unique or standard solution, but
sustainability implies:
Promotion of energy efficiency both on supply side and
demand side - energy sobriety
Preservation and reasonable use of fossil fuels
Promotion of RE and in particular solar energy
Strengthening of the electric grid S/S and S/N to
integrate new plants
Technology transfer and capacity building

21. Thank you for your attention
Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL
houda.allal@ome.org
Kuraymat CSP plant, Egypt