Latin America & Caribbean Regional Outlook June 2013
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http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook After a sharp recovery from the global economic crisis in 2010, when regional output expanded by 6 percent, growth in the Latin America and the Caribbean decelerated markedly, to an estimated 3 percent by 2012. Supply side constraints have become apparent in some of the larger economies, where output was near or above potential during the recovery phase, and which contributed to relatively high inflation and deterioration of current account balances. Despite a sharp deceleration in growth, regional output is only now in line with potential GDP.
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Latin America & Caribbean Regional Outlook June 2013
- 1. 1 Cristina Savescu World Bank June 2013 Global Economic Prospects Latin America & the Caribbean Regional Outlook http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
- 2. Growth in the Latin America and the Caribbean region is expected to firm only marginally this year to 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent in 2012. 2
- 3. Growth in the Latin America and the Caribbean region is expected to firm only marginally this year to 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent in 2012. 3
- 4. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Latin America and the Caribbean 4 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 5. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Latin America and the Caribbean 5 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. 5.3% Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 6. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Latin America and the Caribbean 6 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. 5.3% Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 7. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 South America 7 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. Latin America and the Caribbean Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 8. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 South America 8 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. Latin America and the Caribbean Developing Central and North America Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 9. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 South America Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015 9 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. Latin America and the Caribbean The Caribbean Developing Central and North America
- 10. Growth has remained subdued despite accommodative macro policies.
- 11. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 30-Aug-08 30-Aug-09 30-Aug-10 30-Aug-11 30-Aug-12 Mexico Colombia Chile Peru Monetary policies remain accommodative short-term policy interest rates, percent Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.
- 12. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 30-Aug-08 30-Aug-09 30-Aug-10 30-Aug-11 30-Aug-12 Mexico Colombia Chile Peru Monetary policies remain accommodative short-term policy interest rates, percent Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam. Brazil
- 13. Argentina Antigua and Barbuda Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominica Dominican Rep. Ecuador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Haiti Jamaica St. Lucia Mexico Nicaragua Panama Peru El Salvador Suriname Uruguay St. Vincent and Grenadines Venezuela -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage points Size of output gap (2012) Gap closing from below Overheating Gap closing from aboveCrashing
- 14. Argentina Antigua and Barbuda Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominica Dominican Rep. Ecuador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Haiti Jamaica St. Lucia Mexico Nicaragua Panama Peru El Salvador Suriname Uruguay St. Vincent and Grenadines Venezuela -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage points Size of output gap (2012) Gap closing from below Overheating Gap closing from aboveCrashing
- 15. Argentina Antigua and Barbuda Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominica Dominican Rep. Ecuador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Haiti Jamaica St. Lucia Mexico Nicaragua Panama Peru El Salvador Suriname Uruguay St. Vincent and Grenadines Venezuela -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage points Size of output gap (2012) Gap closing from below Overheating Gap closing from aboveCrashing
- 16. Argentina Antigua and Barbuda Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominica Dominican Rep. Ecuador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Haiti Jamaica St. Lucia Mexico Nicaragua Panama Peru El Salvador Suriname Uruguay St. Vincent and Grenadines Venezuela -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage points Size of output gap (2012) Gap closing from below Overheating Gap closing from aboveCrashing
- 17. Developments in the first quarter of 2013 underscore some of the downside risks to the outlook
- 18. -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Mexico Peru Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam. A relatively weak start of the year in Latin America and Caribbean GDP, q/q per cent annual i zed change, sa
- 19. -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Mexico Peru Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam. A relatively weak start of the year in Latin America and Caribbean GDP, q/q per cent annual i zed change, sa
- 20. Large fluctuations of export prices represent a major risk to outlook for commodity exporters.
- 21. Commodity exporters at risk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 22. Commodity exporters at risk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 23. Commodity exporters at risk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 24. Commodity exporters at risk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 0 Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean metal exporters Metals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 25. Commodity exporters at risk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 0 Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean metal exporters Metals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 26. Commodity exporters at risk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 0 Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean metal exporters Metals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 27. 27 Cristina Savescu World Bank June 2013 Global Economic Prospects Latin America & the Caribbean Regional Outlook http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Notas do Editor
- GEP 2010 Presentation
- The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- GEP 2010 Presentation