1. GROWTH IN NON VEGETERIAN FOOD
CONSUMPTION BY 2014 AND IT’S IMPACT ON
ANIMAL HEALTH INPUTS WITH PARTICULAR
REFERENCE TO PROBIOTICS
I. PREAMBLE
Production and consumption of Non vegetarian food are increasing every year in spite of
some health conscious by birth non vegetarians are avoiding non vegetarian food
Kalyan Chakravarthy, country head of the food and agriculture division of Yes Bank says
that in China and India, the youth and high-income population is adapting to meat.
Current global livestock production is growing more dynamically than any other
agricultural sector around the world; livestock are now the world's largest land user
(FAOa 2001).
According to the agriculture ministry, meat production in India has been growing at a
compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5 per cent over the past 15 years.
Trends have shown that non vegetarian food consumption in India has gone up from
once a week to three times.
According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), per capita meat
consumption in India could reach 18 kg in 2020, compared to 10-12 kg now.
At present, in India
Per capita availability of meat is 1.6 kg.
Per capita availability of egg is 1.8 kg or 42 eggs.
Average consumption of eggs in major cities is 170 eggs
Average consumption of eggs in smaller cities is 40 eggs
Average consumption of developed rural areas is 20 eggs
Average consumption of undeveloped rural areas is only 5 eggs.
2. While 20% of Indian population is vegetarian.
Driven by population, income increases, rapid urbanization, and changing dietary habits,
there is an unprecedented expansion of the livestock industry throughout the developing
world where per capita meat production is expected to increase by nearly 50% between
2000 and 2020. Global meat demand is expected to grow by 35% and milk demand by
25% over the same period.
The increase in consumption of non vegetarian food is largely owing to the following
facts.
1. In developing countries, Governments are providing midday meal to school going
children where Eggs are provided periodically.
2. Compared to Vegetables, prices of Eggs are low in several countries.
3. Dining out is becoming a regular habit and while dining in restaurants people try
several non vegetarian dishes.
4. With the increase in earning and purchasing capacities, people are tending towards
Non vegetarian food.
5. Urbanization. Rural folk moving to cities are more prone for increased intake of meat
and eggs.
Demand for meat worldwide is forecast to rise more than 55 per cent between 1997 and
2020, with China alone accounting for more than 40 per cent of this increase, and India,
4 per cent, according to IFPRI.
(http://www.businessworld.in/index.php/Commodities/Meat-Of-The-Matter.html)
By the year 2020, it is estimated that there will be some 800 million additional people to
feed on the planet. This together with higher income for food spending will put a
tremendous demand on crop production.
The USDA reports that animals cycled through the U.S. meat industry produce 61 million
tons of waste each year, which is 130 times the volume of human waste, or .2 tons for
every US citizen (Horrigan et al. 1999). In the United States, waste from every type of
livestock increased between 1987 and 1997, with the largest increases in waste from
sheep and poultry. Large manure volumes will continue to be produced and distributed
on less land in the coming years (Beegle and Lanyon 1994). These consequences of
animal waste can be divided into three primary categories: water degradation, land
degradation, and air pollution.
Hence the need arises to put efforts in the following.
1. Achieving more quantity and quality of meat, eggs and milk employing less land,
water and time.
This can be achieved by
• Encouraging high yielding varieties of animals
• Improving pre and post harvest technologies to avoid losses in transit.
• Improving the disease resistance and disease curing to reduce mortality
rates and to curb any weight falls during ailments
• Improving the quality of feed, FCR.
• Reducing the quantities og inputs by increasing TDN, reducing excreta,
employing newer technologies like DFM (Direct Fed Microbes to produce
3. Amino Acids, Organic Acids, Enzymes, Growth promoters, Toxin
degraders etc)
2. Achieve agricultural production without damaging the environment by
• Employing greener technologies
• Preferring organic farming
3. Biodegrade all the wastes and pollutants of the industry like litter and make them
more environment friendly.
4. Convert the poultry litter and cow dung into fit animal feeding stuff rather than
usage of the same as manure.
Probiotics are live microorganisms which, when administered in adequate amounts,
confer a health benefit on the host.
Prebiotics are nondigestible substances that provide a beneficial physiological effect for
the host by selectively stimulating the favorable growth or activity of a limited number of
indigenous bacteria
Synbiotics are products that contain both probiotics and probiotics.
At the start of the 20th century, probiotics were thought to beneficially affect the host by
improving its intestinal microbial balance, thus inhibiting pathogens and toxin producing
bacteria.
Today, specific health effects are being investigated and documented including
alleviation of chronic intestinal inflammatory diseases, prevention and treatment of
pathogen-induced diarrhea, urogenital infections, and atopic diseases.
Today, Scientists and Industry has recognized the important role of probiotics
In improving
• The survival rate,
• Weight gain
• FCR
• Egg laying capacity,
• Milk yielding capacity,
And in reducing
• Residual antibiotics, hormones, pesticides, dewormers
• Mortality rate
• Crop time
• Pollution
4. • Damage to Mother Earth.
According to a new market research report, 'Probiotics Market (2009-2014)'
(www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/probiotic-market-advanced-tec
hnologies-and-global-market-69.html), published by MarketsandMarkets
(www.marketsandmarkets.com), the global probiotics market is expected
to be worth US$ 32.6 billion by 2014, with the Europe and Asia accounting for
nearly 42% and 30% of the total revenues respectively. The global market is
expected to record a CAGR of 12.6% from 2009 to 2014.
Probiotics, belonging to the functional group of gut flora stabilisers within the category of
zootechnical feed additives (according to the Regulation EC No 1831/2003) is a fast
growing market
In 2004, the global market value of probiotics was €32 million, with a forecasted annual
growth of approximately 3%. However, due to the ban of antimicrobial feed additives, the
probiotic market in Western Europe showed an annual growth of more than 7%. In 2006,
Western Europe produced around 296 tons of probiotics, with a value of €15.5 million.
With 1012 CFU (equivalent to about 100g) usually added to a ton of mixed feed,
approximately 3 million tons of feed containing probiotics was produced last year.
(www.allaboutfeed.net/article-database/potenti...)
Probiotic Foods & Beverages segment is expected to command over 75% of the
overall probiotics market in 2009.
Probiotic dairy products are accounting for almost 70% in the year 2009 and reaching a
market size of almost $24 billion by the end of 2014.
Probiotic dairy products market in USA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% from
2009 to 2014.
Probiotic chocolates, probiotic ice creams and probiotic baked products are
expected to enjoy a much larger market share.
Europe market for probiotics is estimated at $13.5 billion by 2014. Its 12.2% CAGR from
2009 to 2014 is driven by consumer demand for health-enhancing probiotic products,
such as probiotic yogurts, other probiotic dairy products and probiotic dietary
supplements.
Asia is the second largest segment, growing at with an estimated CAGR of 11.2% to
reach $9.0 billion by 2014.
Animals can be classified as follows.
1. Companion animals
2. Animals used in Agriculture
5. 3. Human food product (Milk, Eggs) producing Animals
4. Animals used as Human Food
5. Animals used in Industry( Wool bearing)
6. Laboratory Animals
7. Wild Animals
Beneficial microorganisms can be used in food, feed, drinking water; over pond water
mediums; in the environment.
Beneficial microorganisms can be used in controlling
• Bacterial, fungal and viral infections
• Cancer
• Cholesterol
• External parasites
• Insects
• Internal parasites
• Obesity
• Pests
Beneficial microorganisms can be used as alternate antibiotics, pesticides, insecticides,
growth promoters.
Beneficial microorganisms can be used as
• Anifungals
• Antibiotic s
• Antivirals
• Enzyme producers
• FCR Improvers
• Growth promoters
• Gut acidifiers
• Immuno modulators
• Insecticides
• Meat tenderizers
• Oxygen liberators
• Parasiticides
• Pesticides
• Pollutant degraders
• Protozoacides
• Toxin binders
• Zoothamnicides
Role of Probiotics
• To combat diseases like as Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS), dyspepsia, chronic
diarrhea or constipation.
6. • To curdle milk
• To detoxify
• To eliminate pathogens
• To exist symbiotically
• To fight against certain cancers.
• To help in Lactic intolerance
• To help in producing short chain fatty acids (SCFAs)
• To help liver and kidneys in discharging their functions
• To help regulate the immune response
• To improve mineral absorption
• To improve Total digestible Nutrients (TDN) of the food intake.
• To inhibit LDL accumulation
• To maintain optimum micro flora
• To reduce Triglycerides
• To reduce the stress owing to high levels of Antibiotics
Activities of Probiotic Bacteria
• Anti colon cancer effects
• Anti Milk allergy
• Anti-diarrheal effects
• Cholesterol lowering
• Correction of Hypertension
• Immune system modulation
• Improved tolerance to milk
• Intestinal health maintenance
• Reduction of Lactose intolerance
• Suppression of harmful intestinal microbe activities
• Suppression of pathogen translocation
• Vaginal/urinary tract health maintenance
Of the 18 authorised probiotics in the EU, 12 are authorised for pig feed (10 are
approved for piglets, 6 for sows and 5 for fattening pigs). The micro-organisms for pig
feed are of various origins. Most preparations contain defined strains of bacteria and
only three of them contain yeasts. Bacillus strains are spore forming bacteria and are
applied as spore preparations while enterococci and pediococci do not form spores and
are applied as desiccated vegetative cells. Therefore, Bacillus probiotics are much more
stable during feed processing (including pelleting and during in-feed storage). We have
found that the recovery of B. cereus var. toyoi was 95% after pelleting (conditioner 80°C,
dye 87°C), while the recovery of viable counts of an E. faecium strain decreased with
increasing treatment temperature (Figure 1). However, the stability of vegetative cells
can be improved by various techniques (soaking on globuli, coating). Although viability
losses can be compensated by initial overdosing during feed production if the rate of
inactivation is known, storage of the complete feed is still a matter of concern. Bacterial
spores, on the other hand, are remarkably stable during storage in pelleted feed (Figure
2 ). Yeasts are the most sensitive to heat treatment. Probably influenced by their stability
7. characteristics, sales volume of used probiotic organisms in pig feeding can be
categorised as follows: Bacillus spore probiotics > Enterococcus strains (lactic acid
bacteria) > yeast probiotics (viable cells).
The European Union has not yet implemented regulations for the risk assessment of
genetically modified microorganisms (GMO) in animal nutrition.
Especially when GMOs are used to deliver drugs or vaccines, they could not be
regulated as feed additives but have to be treated as therapeutic agents.
(http://www.allaboutfeed.net/article-database/potentials-of-probiotics-in-pig-nutrition-
id1140.html)
In Japan a standard was developed by the Fermented Milks and Lactic Acid Bacteria
Beverages Association stipulating that a product contain 1 x 107 viable
bifidobacteria/g or mL product to be considered a probiotic food.
Complete Ban on All Growth-promoting Antimicrobials in the EU Drives Growth in the
Animal Feed Probiotics Market.
A huge demand for phytase is predicted in the future. This is a result of the
Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) concerns about chemical emissions from the
agricultural industry. Farmers are also looking to reduce phosphate content in animal
wastes. Thus, the most rapid growth is expected in the area of animal feed enzymes led
by phytase.
Global market for chemotherapeutic drugs which either kill parasite populations or
prevent the development of immature parasites into adult forms, is worth almost $4.7
billion, making it the single most valuable sector of the animal health products market.
At the moment very few companies like DVS BioLife Ltd employ probiotics for controlling
internal and external parasites.
The global market for nutraceuticals for companion animals was estimated in excess of
$1 billion in 2006. Several algae like spirulina, chlorella, Dunaliella Salina are employed.
The global probiotics market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of around 13% from 2009-
2014 and Europe and Asia would be occupying the maximum market share by the end
of 2014.
There is good in vitro evidence that certain probiotic strains can inhibit the
growth and adhesion of a range of enteropathogens (Coconnier et al., 1993, 1997;
Hudault et al., 1997; Gopal et al., 2001; Bernet Camard et al., 1997), and animal studies
have indicated beneficial effects against pathogens such as Salmonella (Ogawa et al.,
2001; Shu et al., 2000).
The intestinal microflora likely plays a critical role in inflammatory conditions in
the gut, and potentially probiotics could remediate such conditions through modulation of
the microflora.
Administration of lactobacilli and bifidobacteria could theoretically modify the flora
leading to decreased β-glucuronidase and carcinogen levels (Hosada et al., 1996).
Furthermore, there is some evidence that cancer recurrences at other sites, such as the
8. urinary bladder can be reduced by intestinal instillation of probiotics including L. casei
Shirota (Aso et al., 1995). In vitro studies with L. rhamnosus GG and bifidobacteria and
an in vivo study using L. rhamnosus strains GG and LC-705 as well as
Propionibacterium sp. showed a decrease in availability of carcinogenic aflatoxin in the
lumen (El-Nezami et al., 2000; Oatley et al., 2000).
(http://www.who.int/foodsafety/publications/fs_management/en/probiotics.pdf)
Intravenous, intraperitoneal and intrapleural injection of L. casei Shirota into mice
significantly increased NK activity of mesenteric node cells but not of Peyer's patch cells
or of spleen cells (Matsuzaki and Chin, 2000), supporting the concept that some
probiotic strains can enhance the innate immune response.
(Joint FAO/WHO Expert Consultation on Evaluation of Health and Nutritional Properties
of Probiotics in Food Including Powder Milk with Live Lactic Acid Bacteria, October
2001)
In a series of randomized, double blind, placebo controlled clinical trials, it was
demonstrated that dietary consumption of B.lactis HN019 and L. rhamnosus HN001
resulted in measurable enhancement of immune parameters in the elderly
(Arunachalam et al., 2000; Gill et al., 2001; Sheih et al., 2001).
Some probiotic strains were shown to inhibit the growth of enteropathogens, such as
Salmonella enteritidis, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, and Serratia marcesens, in vitro
(48, 49) and in this respect may offer considerable therapeutic potential. This finding,
together with more recent evidence showing that Lactobacillus GG exerts antagonist
activity against Salmonella typhimurium C5 infection both in vitro and in vivo (50),
provides a basis for the clinical use of probiotics in suppression of pathogens.
(http://www.ajcn.org/cgi/content/full/73/2/476S)
Potential for probiotics microorganisms to modulate the immune response and prevent
onset of allergic diseases has been demonstrated.
Ability of lactobacilli to reverse increased intestinal permeability, enhance gut-specific
IgA responses, promote gut barrier function through restoration of normal microbes, and
enhance transforming growth factor beta and interleukin 10 production as well as
cytokines that promote production of IgE antibodies
(Kalliomaki et al., 2001; Isolauri, 2001).
Certain microorganisms can contribute to the generation of counter-regulatory T-helper
cell immune responses, indicating that use of specific probiotic microorganisms could
redirect the polarized immunological memory to a healthy one
(McCracken and Lorenz, 2001).
There is preliminary evidence that use of probiotic lactobacilli and metabolic by-products
potentially confer benefits to the heart, including prevention and therapy of various
ischemic heart syndromes (Oxman et al., 2001) and lowering serum cholesterol
(De Roos and Katan, 2000).
There is some clinical evidence to suggest that oral and vaginal administration of
lactobacilli can eradicate asymptomatic (Reid et al., 2001a; 2001b) and symptomatic
Bacterial vaginosis
9. (Hilton et al., 1995; Sieber and Dietz, 1998).
One study of day care centres in Finland showed that probiotic use reduced the
incidence of respiratory infections and days absent due to ill health
(Hatakka et al., 2001).
Probiotic bacteria containing β-galactosidase can be added to food to improve lactose
maldigestion
(Kim and Gilliland, 1983).
The global market estimate of functional foods has been up to 73 Billion € and an
annular growth rate of 8-16%. In a recent study undertaken by Leatherhead Food RA,
the market for functional foods in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain,
Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden was reviewed. The results of the
study showed that the probiotic yogurt market in these 9 countries totalled >250 million
kg in 1997 (11), with France representing the largest market, having sales of 90
million kg, valued at US$219 million. The German market for probiotic yogurts is growing
rapidly; for example, during 1996–1997, it increased by 150%, whereas the UK market
grew by a more modest 26% during the same period. On average, probiotic yogurts
accounted for 10% of all yogurts sold in the 9 countries studied, with Denmark having
the highest proportion (20%) of probiotic yogurts, followed by Germany and the United
Kingdom (both at 13%) and then France (11%). On the lower end of the scale were the
Netherlands and Belgium (both at 6%) and then Finland and Sweden (both at 5%) (11).
Seen as crucial to market expansion in Europe is further clarity on the use of health
claims. The market for functional foods in Europe could ultimately account for 5% of
total food expenditure in Europe, which, based on current prices, would equate to
US$30 billion (5).
This study on the envisaged growth in the consumption of Non Vegetarian Foods and
the role of probiotics in improving the scenario is based on the assumptions narrated
below.
Several factors may influence these observations. Some of them are listed below.
I.II. ASSUMPTIONS IN PREPARING THIS REPORT
1. Agricultural support and trade policies influence markets
2. Agricultural production continues to expand, but more slowly
In spite of reduction in the Acreage; production will improve owing to the improved
Seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and due to the better package of practices in pre and
post harvesting including storage and transporting.
3. Agricultural lands are becoming scarce day by day owing to
• Submerging in oncoming projects on rivers
• Conversion into residential and industrial usage
• Immersion into sea owing to rise in mean sea level caused by ice glacier
melting (Due to Global Warming)
10. 4. Consumption to grow faster in developing countries due to higher earning
capacities
5. Despite rekindled fears, inflation expected to remain low
6. Diseases like Asian soya bean rust could change the outlook for oilseed markets
7. Population growth rates to decline
World population is projected to soar from 6.1 billion in 2000 to 7.9 billion in 2025 and
9.3 billion in 2050
(Sadik 2001).
8. Sustained, broad-based growth in farm animals is expected in the medium to
longer term
I. III. FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE DEMAND OF NON VEGETARIAN
FOOD
1. Climatic changes
2. Changes in Food habits
3. Increase in Population
4. Urbanization
I. IV. FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE SUPPLY OF NON VEGETARIAN
FOOD
1. Climatic changes
2. Improvements in Feed Technology
4. GM in Poultry and other Breeds
6. Change in the Priorities in feeding stuff
7. Change of size and concept of operators like a shift from small families to small companies
8. Better usage of land and water resources
I. V. FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE AVAILABILITY OF FEEDING
STUFF FOR USE IN ANIMAL FEEDS
1. Demand for biofuels such as ethanol from grain
2. Demand for biodiesel from edible oil
3. Demand for human consumption.
4. Conversion of Lands used to produce Grains and Oil Seeds to better
remunerating crops like Horticulture, Flowers, Vegetables, Medicinal Herbs etc.
I. VI. FACTORS THAT MAKE USAGE OF PROBIOTICS AS THE ONLY BEST
ALTERNATIVE
11. • Abuse of Antibiotics
• Abuse of Growth promoting antibiotics and chemicals
• Abuse of Hormones
• Abuse of Pesticides, insecticides
• Abuse of dewormers, parasiticides, disinfectants, sanitizers etc
Table I.01.
• When GDP increases to developing country status, growth in meat consumption
rises quickly reflecting consumer desires. In many countries, per capita income
levels have more than doubled over the past two decades.
12. Table I. 02. Average annual percentage increase over 10 year period
1995-2004 2005-2014 1995-2004 2005-2014
Population Income
% % % %
World 1.27 1.01 2.62 3.10
Africa 2.28 1.83 3.37 3.80
America 1.36 1.04 3.02 3.24
Asia 1.29 1.02 2.61 3.56
Europe 0.01 -0.07 2.13 2.40
Oceania 1.15 0.73 3.51 3.53
Note: Income is at 1995 USD market prices.
Source: World Bank, December 2004.
• World population is projected to soar from 6.1 billion in 2000 to 7.9 billion in 2025 and 9.3 billion in
2050
(Sadik 2001).
• Countries with large population bases and high growth rates are Indonesia- 240 m, 1.5%, India -
1,065 m, 1.4%, Pakistan - 161 m, 2.0%, Bangladesh -143 m , 2.1% and Brazil - 185 m 1.1%
(Anon, 2007).
• A 10% increase in income would result in a 1% increase in food expenditure in the U.S., a 6.5%
increase in the Philippines and 18% in Tanzania (Seale and Bernstein, 2003).
Table I.03
As per CFLMA, Indian feed production details are as follows.
Species Year Feed in Kg
Broiler 2004 6.2 x 109
Layer 2004 8.1 x 109
Cattle 2004 4 x 109
Shrimp 2005 0.307 x 109
Fish 2004 0.01 x 109
It is estimated that the real productions by 2014 will be enhanced at an average growth rate of 9.25%
• The top 15 countries that produce animal feed accounted for 73% of a total
production of 625 mmt in 2005 (Gill, 2007).
Table I. 04. Production and consumption average annual growth rates, 2004-2014
PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION
Total OECD NON-OECD Total OECD NON-OECD
% %
Beef 1.6 0.7 2.6 1.6 0.6 2.3
Pig meat 1.8 0.8 2.6 1.8 0.8 2.3
Poultry meat 2.2 1.8 3.0 2.2 1.8 2.5
Milk 1.9 0.9 3.0 .. .. ..
Butter 1.7 -0.3 3.4 1.8 -0.3 2.9
Cheese 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.9 1.6 2.7
13. Skim milk powder -0.5 -1.3 2.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.3
Whole milk powder 2.0 1.2 3.4 2.0 -0.3 2.6
Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats
Table I. 05. Per capita consumption for selected commodities
Average annual growth (%) (1)
2002-04 2014 1995-04 2005-14
World
Meat 31.2 34.5 3.38 0.88
OECD
Meat 64.5 69.9 7.03 0.73
Non-OECD
Meat 23.2 26.5 1.64 1.18
Note: (1) The least squares growth rate, r is estimated by fitting a linear regression trend line as follows:
Ln(xt)=a+r*t
Econometrics and models and Econometrics forecasts, Robert S. Pindyck.
Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.