1. VERONIKA RABL
Principal, Vision & Results
Member, IEEE-PES
Vice Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee
Washington, DC
Praha, 24. září 2012

2. 2
Topics
 IEEE/IEEE-USA
 Energy Policy Recommendations
 Background
 Transportation
 Power Supply
 Electric Grid
 Discussion

3. 3
IEEE
 World’s largest professional association
 more than 395,000 members in more than 160
countries; 45 percent from outside the US
 Leading developer of voluntary, consensus-based
international standards involving today's leading-
edge electrotechnologies
 portfolio of more than 900 active standards and more
than 400 standards in development

4. 4
IEEE-USA
 IEEE-USA advances the public good and promotes
the careers and public policy interests of more
than 215,000 engineers, scientists and allied
professionals who are U.S. members of the IEEE.
 “Building Careers and Shaping Public Policy”

5. 5
Energy Policy Committee
 Made up mostly of power systems engineering
professionals and academics from across the US
 Expertise in areas such as:
 Power generation, transmission and distribution
 Alternative energy resources
 Nuclear power
 Power system reliability
 Smart Grid
 Efficiency
 Electric transportation

6. 6
Energy Situation
 Energy underlies three converging challenges
facing the United States
 Economic Prosperity
 National Security
 Environmental Protection
 Electricity can play a key role, but,
 substantial pressures to respond to environmental concerns
 deal with uncertainties in both local and global energy supplies
 accommodate the rapid evolution of new generation sources and
technology options available to its users

7. 7
All Eyes on Electricity Generation
 Electric utility sector accounts for about a third of
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
 Over 40% of electricity generated by coal

8. 8
Electricity – Engine of Progress
Source: Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010), October 2011
Electrification
• Electricity use is
increasing in both
absolute and
RELATIVE terms
Increasing energy
productivity
• It takes less-and-less
energy to fuel the
economy0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
%primaryenergyusedforelectricity
ThousandBtu/chained(2005)dollars
Energy
Use/$GDP
Electricity
Fraction

9. 9
Recommendations
 Pursuing energy efficiency and demand response
 http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/EnergyEfficiency1110.pdf
 Transforming transportation by diversifying
energy sources
 Greening the electric power supply
 Building a stronger and smarter electrical energy
infrastructure
 Cyber and critical power, and energy
infrastructure security

10. 10
Recommendations
 Above all:
BUILD
FLEXIBILITY AND ADAPTABILITY
INTO ALL ELEMENTS OF
OUR ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

11. 11
Separated by Common Language?
 billion = 109 vs 1012 in Europe
 1012 = trillion
 Quad (quadrillion) = 1015 Btu
 MBtu could be 1 thousand Btu
 MMBtu is 1 million Btu
 Even the definition of efficiency is not consistent!
 Fuel energy content HHV vs LHV
 Efficiencies in Europe are 5 – 10% higher (or as high as
18% for H2 fuel cell)

12. 12
Transportation
 National Security Risk
 Almost entirely oil
 2/3 of entire petroleum use
 Reduce Emissions
 Cannot capture dispersed emissions

13. 13
Transforming Transportation by
Diversifying Energy Sources
 Electrifying Transportation: Plug-In and Hybrid
Electric Vehicles
 Developing and Using Alternative Transportation
Fuels

14. 14
TRANSPORTATION
About 30% of GHG Emissions
Source: Conti, J., U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transportation Sector, Asilomar presentation, July 2009

15. 15
Where the Energy Goes
Source: EPA, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (Feb. 2, 2012)
GASOLINE
ENGINE
EFFICIENCY
Tank
-to-
Wheels
14 –16%

16. 16
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
 Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
 Well to refinery = .95
 Refining to gasoline = .85
 Gasoline delivery = .97
 Tank to wheels = .14 – .16
 Efficiency of 11% to 13%

17. 17
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
 Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 11% to 13%
 Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Delivered to power plant = .95
 Power generation = .35 - .45
 Transmission and distribution = .90 - .93
 Plug to battery = .80 - .90
 Battery to wheels = .80 - .90
 Efficiency of 19% to 32%

18. 18
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
 Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 11% to 13%
 Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 19% to 32%
 Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 27% to 42%

19. 19
Electricity to the Rescue!
VEHICLE EFFICIENCY WELL-TO-WHEELS
 Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 11% to 13%
 Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 19% to 32%
 Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 27% to 42%

20. 20
Greenhouse Gases Reduced
Source: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007
GHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY
ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 37.9 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEV

21. 21
GHG Reduced
Source: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007
ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 50 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEV
GHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY

22. 22
Achilles’ Heel?
Achilles at Achilleion, Corfu (detail); Sculptor Ernst Herter, 1884
COST

23. 23
Battery Costs Declining
Source: Department of Energy FY 2012 Congressional Budget Request, DOE/CF-0059, Vol. 3, February 2011
Ford, May 2012

24. 24

25. 25
Greening the Electric Power
Supply
 Expanding the Use of Renewable Electric
Generation
 Revitalizing Nuclear Power Generation
 Reducing Carbon Emissions from Fossil Power
Plants

26. 26
Generation by Fuel 2010
Issues by Fuel Source
Coal
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear

27. 27
COAL
 30% installed capacity
 Till recently about ½ of electricity generation
 One of our most abundant resources

28. 28
Regulatory Pressures
 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for new and
existing plants
 Coal Combustion Residuals Regulation (coal ash
disposal)
 Performance standards for emissions of carbon
dioxide (new and major retrofit)
Virtually every coal plant must
RETROFIT, RETIRE OR REPOWER

29. 29
Ag(e)ing Fleet
About 50% of all capacity and 73% of coal-fired capacity
was 30 years or older at the end of 2010

30. 30
~50 GW of Coal-fired Generation
Expected to Retire by 2020
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) and http://www.flickr.com/photos/usgao/7801651396/sizes/o/in/photostream/

31. 31
NATURAL GAS
 Less expensive than just about any other form of
generation
 EIA estimate: 60% of capacity additions between
now and 2035
 May slow momentum or displace renewables
 New power system issues
 Fuel supply
 Balancing requirements

32. 32
CCGT Competes with Baseload Coal
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)

33. 33
How Long Before Prices Go Up?
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)

34. 34
RENEWABLES
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012, DOE/EIA-0383(2012), June 2012

35. 35
50 GW Installed Wind Capacity
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)

36. 36
The Future of Tax Credits for
Solar & Wind?
Source: RenewablesBiz Daily, Sept. 12, 2012

37. 37
State Incentives Account for About
½ of capacity added 2010-11
Source: DSRI (Database for State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency)/ US Partnership for Renewable Finance
Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies..
www.dsireusa.org / September 2012.
29 states,+
Washington DC and 2
territories,have
Renewable Portfolio
Standards
(8 states and 2 territories have
renewable portfolio goals).

38. 38
Where Will Electricity Come From?
 Coal in decline for the foreseeable future
 High risk (carbon regulation uncertain)
 No CCS scheme has yet been piloted, let alone demonstrated
at scale
 Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions
 Renewables will grow even in absence of federal
carbon policy
 And the rest? Nuclear? What will it take?

39. 39
NUCLEAR
 Traditionally the lowest cost electricity
BUT
 Public acceptance issues
 High initial cost a significant barrier

40. 40
Nuclear Fleet Aging Too
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=228&t=21
 The average age of U.S. commercial reactors is
about 32 years
 The oldest entered commercial service in 1969
 The last newly built reactor entered service in 1996
 Tennessee Valley Authority is completing an on-site
addition planned to begin operation in 2013
 U.S. commercial nuclear reactors are licensed to
operate for 40 years by the U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC).

41. 41
License Renewals
Source: EnergyBiz, Sept. 12, 2012

42. 42
Two Plants Licensed Early 2012
…More to Come
Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 2012 (http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html)
Location of Projected New Nuclear Power Reactors

43. 43
Major Recommendations/ Nuclear
 Comprehensive spent nuclear fuel management
program that would close the fuel cycle and
develop a disposal facility as mandated by the
Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982
 Advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies
to reduce proliferation concerns, and to reduce
the volume and lifetime of wastes

44. 44
Infrastructure

45. 45
U.S. Network
 Current U.S. electric grid is a network of
 10,000 power plants
 170,000 miles of high-voltage (>230 kV) transmission
lines
 Millions of miles of lower-voltage distribution lines
 More than 15,000 substations

46. 46
The Grid
Source: NERC, Understanding the Grid

47. 47
Electricity Industry Restructuring
 Many players
 Not necessarily
conducive to
cooperation or
optimal system
design
 Market
efficiency vs.
system
efficiency
Competition
Local
Regulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
SCSC MOMO
MEME TOTO
SOSO
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
Competition
Local
Regulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
RC MO
BA TO
TOP
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
RC-
MO - Market Operator
TOP -
- Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
RC– Reliability Coordinator
MO – Market Operator
TOP – TransmissionOperator
BA – Balancing Authority
TO – TransmissionOwner

48. 48
The Parties to the System
 Different utility types: IOU, Municipal, rural
 Vertically integrated, restructured, holding
companies
 Independent (merchant) generators
 Demand response providers (aggregators)
 Transmission owners
 State regulators, NERC (North American Electric
Reliability Corporation), FERC (Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission)

49. 49
Electricity Transactions
Source: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012

50. 50
NERC Regions & Balancing
Authorities
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)

51. 51
ISO/RTO* Map
Sources: NERC and 2012 National Electric Transmission Congestion Study presentation, Aug. 2012
About two
thirds of
the
country
have
organized
markets
*) ISO – Independent System Operator, RTO – Regional Transmission Organization

52. 52
PJM RTO
Source: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012

53. 53
Physical Infrastructure
Transmission Constraints
Source: Source: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study, 2009

54. 54
Transmission Congestion Costs
Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Sept. 26, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3230
Transmission congestion drives power price division between upstate
and downstate New York

55. 55
Conditional Constraints
Source: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study, 2009

56. 56
Major Infrastructure Issues
 Increasingly complex and competitive bulk power
market is adding stress to the grid
 Grid congestion and higher transmission losses
 Higher rates for electricity
 Market design and grid expansion must maintain
adequate levels of grid reliability
 Reinforcing the grid and deploying advanced
technologies critical for the nation

57. 57
Markets vs. Electricity
 Market equilibrium on top of Kirchhoff's circuit
laws topology
 Need for new specialty:
 Market design w/electrical engineering foundation

58. 58
Building a Stronger and Smarter
Electrical Energy Infrastructure
 Transforming the Network into a Smart Grid
 Expanding the Transmission System
 Accommodating New Types of Generation and
New Loads
 Variable generation
 Local generation, PV, microgrids
 Plug-in vehicles

59. 59
Smart Grid Recommendations
 Standards
 Splintered
jurisdictions
 Real-time data

60. 60http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/ElectricInfrastructureJuly2010.pdf

61. 61
Energy Policy Recommendations
PROVIDE A LONG-TERM COMMITMENT TO ENERGY
RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION

62. 62http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy0211.pdf

63. 63
For More Information
 www.ieeeusa.org
 http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energy
policy0211.pdf
 www.ieeeusa.org/communications/ebooks
 VRabl@Vision-Results.com