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CONFIDENTIAL
Risk based methods for an innovative
New Product Development Approach
CONFIDENTIAL
Koenraad Rombaut
Coordinator Applied Physics and Systems
koenraad.rombaut@verhaert.com
THEME 2: RISK MANAGEMENT IN INNOVATION

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Koenraad Rombaut
Coordinator Applied Physics and Systems
koenraad.rombaut@verhaert.com
Program Director
Theme 2: Risk management in Innovation

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Risk management
in innovative
New Product Development
Setting the scene

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Why do new products fail ?
Source : Verhaert Risk Training

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Product innovation process
Is it a selection process?
It is a risk mitigation and value creation process
Risk management is key throughout the whole process!
NPI New Products IntroductionNPD New Products
Development
PLC
FEI Front End of Innovation

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Incremental innovation vs. Radical innovation
• The danger of incremental
innovation is to jeopardize your
existing Business.
• Radical innovation seems to be
highly risky but the risk is well
contained.
• Effort / effect relationship is
much more positive in radical
innovation.
• “Creative space” is much more
limited in incremental innovation.
Incremental
innovation
Known
Unknown85%
85%
15%
15%
Radical
innovation
Radical / Disruptive innovation
= no references available !

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Criteria for added value / rule of the thumb
1) Feasibility 2) Utility 3) Desirability 4) Usability 5) Allowance
Differentiating capacity
The mission of NPD:
Creating value propositions
with added value

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numberofuncertainties
cost of design
change uncontrolled
learning
progress in the development
envisaged
learning
curve
Early stage risk assessment: why?
Wait for the risk to come true ?
More freedom to adjust in early project phases
 Early detection of risk allows for measures at
lower cost and with less schedule impact
 Learn to fail fast !
Source : USA DoD

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Risks /
Uncertainty
Management
Managing risk in development programs
Impact of
hazard
Impact of
mitigation
Risk = events that can jeopardize the
successful completion of the project
Risk = likelihood x negative impact
zero risk is not affordable in
terms of cost and schedule
Risk management :
The gain should
exceed the pain !

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How to deal with risks in development
Development Tools &
Methods
Risk
treatment
Risk
Identification
• Eliminate the hazard
• Reduce the damage
• Inherently risk proof

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Typical risk framework
Risk Management
Risk
identification
Risk analysis
Risk evaluation
Technology
management
Development
Tools &
methods
Verification
Risk
mitigation
Requirement
mgt
Risk assessment Risk treatment Risk monitoring
Validation
Source :
Verhaert Risk Training

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Risk based approach
in innovative
New Product Development

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Risk management scope
Holistic project view for risk management
• Technical : Performance / Value
• Schedule : Planning / Time
• Cost : Budget / Price
Combine product and process view on risk
Holistic (360°) product view for risk management
• Technical
• Economical
• Human factors (menskundig)
Buffer = risk relief valve
A buffer alone is not enough
Keep 3 axes in balance !
Perfor-
mance
Planning
Risk
manage
ment
Price

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Risk based development approach
Solid development
approach
• Option management
• Focus on criticalities and added value
• Early learning
• Chop your problem & Phase your approach
• Make it tangible
Risk
assessment
• Identification (360 ° / product & process)
• Correct assessment
• Setting priorities right
• Tracking and control
• Documentation and Communication
Holistic
• Product & Process
• Technical
• Schedule
• Cost
• Human factors

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Cut Tangible Risk focus
• Criticalities
• Added value
• 360°
Early
• Rapid
prototyping
• First time right
OptionsCut Tangible Risk focus
• Criticalities
• Added value
• 360°
Early
• Rapid
prototyping
• First time right
Options
Risk based development principles

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How to step into the unknown ?
Product
• Chop product into pieces
physical & functional decomposition
• Assess risks, communicate them
• Identify critical items / focus on them
• Continuous verification
Make it tangible / measurable / Visualise
• Keep your design options open
(fallback solutions)
Process
• Chop development process into pieces
(stage gate process)
• Early verification & validation
• Guard your baseline
• Keep project options open
• Be aware of risks,
don’t be afraid of them
• Skilled multi-disciplinary team (expertise)
Small step
at a time
Protection
Controlled
environment
Experience &
Expertise
Small scale
Easy to
stop
Start
downhill
Critical
items first

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Focus :
•Pareto
•Added value
•Criticalities
•Cut into pieces

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Pareto : 20/80

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Identify critical items
How ?
• New for the company / New for the world
• Risk assessment (FMEA/FTA)
• Feature map: key functionalities
• Product breakdown
• Added value creation
• Past experience (e.g. service statistics)
• Cost of failure
• Complexity
• Design driver
• Safety / Security
Make it tangible and real
One step at a time
Steering
Balance
Pedaling Downhill
Traffic
awareness
Controlled
environment
Support
wheels

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Chop into pieces: product breakdown
Imaging
• Endoscope
• Camera
• Image acquisition
Image processing
• Algorithms
• SW
• HW
Calibration
• Test samples
• Reference
measurement
Scanning
• Motion stage
• Motion control
Handling
• Housing
• UI
Data processing
• Transfer
• Interpretation
Illumination
• Light source
• Light sheet optics

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User Centered Design strategies
User centered design :
Less dependent of abilities of the user
more accomodating of disabilities
from unpacking until disposal
Matching environmental conditions
Positive & Negative use case scenario’s :
Intended use Intended misuse
Unintended use Unintended misuse
Typical technical /
engineering focus!

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Option management & cutting

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Stage gate process with convergent /
divergent thinking
Use clear targets & success criteria (right question):
• What do you want to learn ?
• What criteria have to be fullfilled to go ahead ?
Having to redirect is no failure, don’t take risks to a next stage
try to reach the decision point with minimal effort (timing & budget)
Update your baseline at each gate
Gate Gate Gate
Create
Create
Create
Create
Verify
Go /
No-Go
Go /
No-Go
Go /
No-Go
Verify Verify
New-value
proposition
Recipe
for failure

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Morphological chart
6/06/2012 15:15
Spray Gap/Film Applicator Single Dose Bath Gum Coater Type Moloton/Paint Roller Wet Cloth Selective Application
Turn Plate Upside
Down
Mist Chamber Surface Tension
Chemical/Process
Layers
Overdose Bath Voltage on Plate
Spray Rotating Element Sponge Bend the Plate Plate Heating Bath Heating Circulation in Bath
Ultrasonic Bath
Agitation
Electrolysis Aerate Removal Fluid
Rinse Bath Sponge Squeegee
Ultrasonic Plate
Agitation
Circulation in Bath Rotating Element Evapouration/Drying Baking Aerate Removal Fluid Sticky Tape Gum Layer Air Blade
High Pressure Jet Keep Rollers Wet Re-use Developer Foil in Bath
Ultrasonic Bath
Agitation
Smooth Bath Heat Bath
Reduce CO2 Impact Remove Waste ASAP
Centrifuge Filter Filter Change Sludge Form
Squeegee Developed
Material to Separate
Tank
EM Nanoparticles in
Plate Material
Circulation in Bath
Ultrasonic Bath
Agitation
Spray Cone Absorbant Elements
AGFA - Sustainability
CHEMFREE-RP-0002-VE-A3_Morphological_Chart
Prevent Reduce
Sludge/Soiling
Remove or Clean
Sludge/Soiling
Removal of
Chemicals (and
developed
material)
Improve
Developing
Application of
Chemicals
Localise
Sludge/Soiling
Solutions
Functions
Group BGroup A
Keep high potential group
with backup solutions
instead of only “the best”
brainstorms /
patent screening /
desk research /
TRIZ
root cause analysis /
functional decomposition /
touch point analysis

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Option trade-off
Select never on
numbers only !

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Requirements vs. design options
Adjust requirements (vs. value)
• Functional :
what should it do?
• Performance:
how good should it perform?
Adjust architecture / design
• Functional: backup options
• Physical: physical breakdown
• System: all building blocks, incl.
enabling products & processes
Compliance matrix
• What building
block fulfills
which function
• How is each
performance
going to be
verified
Include risk assessment (P³)
when selecting options

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It’ s not a Santa Claus list
• Aim high to land in the middle does not work in product development!
Why?
• Remember we search for added value,
being a balanced concept
• There’ s nothing like a firm specification
• It’s about a balanced set of specifications
• Agile process

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Option management flow
Functional
decomposition
Morphological table Concept trade-off

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Make it tangible
Early verification & validation

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Cut Tangible Risk focus Early Options
Make it tangible
Visualize Test Simulate Review Roadshow

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Visualisation to identify criticalities
Illumination
NIR image
acquisitionTest sample
Image
processing
Stage &
Motor
RT
processing

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Review of design
Boundary conditions
• design description
• experience
• 360 ° review team
• quick design
Points of attention:
• major risks
• criticalities
• interfaces (sw, elec, mech)
• design changes
• added value
Bottom up vs. top down:
axicon
VCSEL
laser diode
borehole
first lens set of
classic borescope
half ball lens
glass tube
aperture
light
sheet
camera image

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Why simulation : early validation
Benefits
(wrt. the V-shaped approach):
• More and faster iterations
• Parallel development of hw & sw
• Multiple off-nominal
and error testing,
incl. fault injection
(non feasible tests)
• Early full system validation
and risk mitigation without hw
• Less real-life testing
(= the poor man’s approach)
• More optimal system design
by sw-physics co-simulation
• Improved communication & definition,
leading to better design specs
Resulting in time & cost reduction
Traditional:
• sequential developments = lengthy
• validation on hw = late
Model based:
• Parallel developments = fast
• validation on model = early
Device
Requirements
System
Design
Subsystem
requirements
Detailled
Design
Functional
Test
Component
Test
Device
Validation
System
Verfication

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Simulation methods
Single domain:
Multi-physics
Model based design
design inputs
feeling
derisk
Build model
Machine
Control
Design
Concepts
Verification
Implement
Product code
Testing

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Cut Tangible Risk focus Early Options
Tangible : testing & roadshows
Visualize
• Schematics
• Quick design
• Use case
scenario
Test
• First time right
• Proof
• Rapid proto
• Benchmark
• Prototype
Simulate
• Sanity check
• FEM
• 1D node model
• Co-simulation
Review
• Expert review
• Similarity of
design
• Analysis
• Desk research
Roadshow
• Demonstrator
• Feedback
• Rapid proto

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Wrap up :
Risk based methods for an innovative
New Product Development Approach

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Risk is a fact of life
 accept risk, but don’t invite Murphy
1. Connect risk to added value (user centered)
2. Framework without design strategies is waste of time
3. Think forward  generate options
4. Cut into pieces
5. Identify criticalities and focus on them
6. Make it tangible
7. Tools = subjective
only a basis for discussion
and an aid to make decisions
8. Keep performance, budget & schedule
in balance
9. Fail fast, fail cheap
10.No rocket science needed
Wrap –up
How to start ?
 Start small
 Get some help / training

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Cut
• Development
phases
• Functional
subsystems
Tangible
• Visualize
• Simulate
• Test
• Review
• Roadshow
Risk focus
• Criticalities
• Added value
• 360°
Early
• Rapid
prototyping
• First time right
Options
• Backup
• Buffer
• Requirements
vs. design
Risk based development methodology
Visualize
• Schematics
• Quick design
• Use case
scenario
Test
• First time right
• Proof
• Rapid proto
• Benchmark
• Prototype
Simulate
• Sanity check
• FEM
• 1D node model
• Co-simulation
Review
• Expert review
• Similarity of
design
• Analysis
• Desk research
Roadshow
• Demonstrator
• Feedback
• Rapid proto

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CONFIDENTIAL
Training program www.mastersinnovation.com
Training: Risk Management in integrated
R&D processes
February (Kruibeke, B)
Risk remains a challenge to manage. This training clarifies how risk
management for R&D projects differs from risk
management approaches in Project Management. This training illustrates
a global framework with real-life cases of different risk management tools
for your innovation track.

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Thank you
¿
Questions
?
¡ Good luck !

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