1. Economic Outlook: Uncertainty in Global Market
June 6, 2012 CIMB Niaga Treasury - Research & Strategy

2. Utang dan Defisit Dunia
Utang meningkat dengan pesat yang Country Debt (USD Bio) S&P Debt-to-GDP 2011
United States 15,071 AA+u 100
diakibatkan oleh:
Japan 14,276 AA-u 233
1. Stimulus fiskal Germany 2,777 AAAu 82
2. Program Bailout Perbankan France 2,260 AA+u 87
3. Over Spending United Kingdom 1,951 AAAu 81
Italy 2,518 BBB+u 121
Spain 960 A 70
Netherlands 521 AAAu 66
Greece 479 CC 166
Portugal 238 BB 106
Ireland 225 BBB+ 109
Belgium 463 AAu 95
Austria 285 AA+ 72
Australia 351 AAAu 23
IMF - Sep 2011

3. Utang dan Defisit Dunia
Governments try to
reduce deficits and
debts
IMF WEO Apr 2012

4. Utang dan Defisit Dunia
Households try to
reduce debts and
increase saving
IMF WEO Apr 2012

5. Euro Exposures
1. Asia Pacific
exposures to Euro
relatively small
2. Euro exposures to
Asia Pacific relatively
small
IMF WEO Apr 2012

6. Utang dan Defisit Dunia
Langkah-langkah
penyelamatan Eropa dari Country Deficit 2010 Deficit 2011 Deficit 2012
United States -10.33 -9.64 -7.92
defisit, utang dan
Japan -8.08 -8.88 -9.14
ancaman kebangkrutan Germany -3.30 -1.67 -1.10
1. Penghematan France -7.08 -5.89 -4.62
United Kingdom -10.21 -8.47 -7.01
Anggaran
Italy -4.48 -4.04 -2.36
2. European Financial
Spain -9.24 -6.14 -5.16
Stability Fund Netherlands -5.34 -3.85 -2.80
3. Banks recapitalization Greece -10.42 -7.98 -6.87
Portugal -9.14 -5.87 -4.49
4. Debt Swap
Ireland -31.98 -10.32 -8.59
5. Pembelian surat utang Belgium -4.08 -3.54 -3.35
Eropa oleh ECB Austria -4.62 -3.47 -3.21
6. Pinjaman lunak ECB Australia -4.95 -3.86 -1.86
IMF - Sep 2011
terhadap bank Eropa

7. Mesin Ekonomi Yang Melambat
Inflasi dan Aktivitas Ekonomi Cina Euro Zone Unemployment & Inflation
10 65 11.0 3.3
8 60
10.5 2.2
6
55
4
50 10.0 1.1
2
CPI YoY 45
0
9.5 0.0
1Y Best Lending Rates
-2 40
PMI Manufacturing Index - rhs Bloomberg
Bloomberg
-4 35 9.0 -1.1
Apr-09 Mar-10 Feb-11 Jan-12
Unemployment Rate Inflation Y/Y - rhs

8. Bangkitnya Raksasa Ekonomi Dunia
X 1000 US Labor Market %
600 11 Pasar Tenaga Kerja
400 Amerika Mulai pulih:
200 9 1. 3.7 juta orang telah
kembali bekerja sejak
0
2010
-200 7
2. Tingkat pengangguran
-400
turun ke 8.1% dari
-600 5
10.0%
-800
Bloomberg 3. Masih ada 5 juta orang
-1000 3
yang menganggur
Non Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate - rhs

9. Kebijakan Moneter Yang Ekspansif
Bank Sentral Suku Bunga 2012 Policy
Federal Reserve 0.25% Suku Bunga 0.25% sampai 2014
Ada Kemungkinan QE 3
ECB 1.00% Ada kemungkinan turun suku bunga 25 - 50 bps
LTRO EUR 1 Trilyun
Bank of Japan 0.10% QE Naik JPY 10 Trilyun dan Ada Kemungkinan Tambah
Inflation Target 1%
Bank of England 0.50% QE Naik GBP 50 Billion
Resiko
Suku Bunga Pertumbuhan Likuiditas/
Ekonomi Fluktuasi

10. Kebijakan Moneter Yang Ekspansif
IMF WEO Apr 2012

11. Kebijakan Moneter Yang Ekspansif
Interest Rates in
Long Term:
1. UK and US are
rising
2. Euro is
decreasing
IMF WEO Apr 2012

12. Suku Bunga Pasar
% 3-Month Offering Rates (15 Apr '11 = 1) % 10Y Bond Yield (15 Apr '11 = 1)
2.25 1.8
1.5
1.75
1.2
1.25
0.9
0.75
0.6
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
0.25
0.3
Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
AUD USD GBP IDR EUR Indonesia US Germany Portugal Spain

13. Suku Bunga Pasar
% YoY Inflation 1. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
8
Kuat Biasanya Disertai
7
6 Inflasi Tinggi
5 2. Inflasi Yang Tinggi Dapat
4
Disebabkan Oleh
3
2
Kebijakan Moneter
1 Longgar
0 3. Inflasi Tinggi Biasanya
-1
Disertai Mata Uang Lemah
-2
Bloomberg
-3
Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11
UK US Australia Indonesia

14. Market and Inflation Rates
Current Rates
3M 2Y 10Y CPI YOY 1. Negative interest
USD 0.466 0.254 1.870 2.70
CAD 1.347 1.273 2.020 1.90 rate is not always
BRL 8.382 8.466 10.030 5.24
bad for currency
EUR 0.618 0.101 1.605 2.70 2. Falling interest rate
GBP 1.011 0.415 2.005 3.50
RUB 6.850 6.764 8.270 3.60 causes currencies to
CHF 0.112 -0.035 0.671 -1.00
weaken
JPY 0.196 0.110 0.867 0.50 3. Safe heaven
CNY 4.200 2.930 3.590 3.60
KRW 3.540 3.380 3.750 2.50 currencies strong
AUD 4.216 2.746 3.412 1.60
NZD 2.873 NA 3.724 1.60
when risks high
INR 9.410 NA 8.664 8.65
IDR 4.227 4.645 6.078 4.50
SGD 0.382 0.200 1.510 5.20
MYR 3.165 3.097 3.575 2.10
PHP 3.192 3.310 5.846 3.00
As of 8 May 2012

15. Pasar Komoditas
$/ Troy $/
Ounce
Hot Commodity Barrel
1,825 112
1,775
107
1,725
1. Uneven Global
1,675 102
Economic Growth
2. Low inflation 1,625
97
3. Expansionary 1,575
monetary policy Bloomberg
1,525 92
29-Nov 20-Dec 10-Jan 31-Jan 21-Feb
Gold Crude Oil (NYMEX) - rhs

16. Pasar Saham
Equity Indices Performance
5.00
(Jan 2005 = 1)
1. Pertumbuhan 4.00
Ekonomi Dunia
Tidak Merata 3.00
2. Inflasi rendah
2.00
3. Kebijakan
Moneter Longgar
1.00
4. Harga Komoditas
Bloomberg
Stabil 0.00
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
IHSG Dow Jones Shanghai Straits Times

17. Pasar Saham
Stock Market & Volatility
13,500 45
1. Saham Kuat Jika
12,900 37
Pertumbuhan
Ekonomi Kuat 12,300 29
2. Saham Kuat Jika
Volatilitas Rendah 11,700 21
3. Volatilitas Rendah
11,100 13
Jika Resiko Pasar
Bloomberg
Rendah
10,500 5
Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Dow Jones IA Stock VIX - rhs

18. Currency Ranking
Currency Performance against USD
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Bloomberg (8 May 12)
-10
CAD BRL EUR GBP RUB CHF JPY CNY KRWAUD NZD INR IDR SGD MYR PHP
1 Month 3 Month 6 Month

19. Currency Matrix
Economic Growth Inflation Monetary Policy 2012 Bias
Short Term Long Term STRONG MEDIUM WEAK
USD USD
CAD CAD
BRL BRL
EUR EUR
GBP GBP
RUB RUB
CHF CHF
JPY JPY
CNY CNY
KRW KRW
AUD AUD
NZD NZD
INR INR
IDR IDR
SGD SGD
MYR MYR
PHP PHP

20. Perekonomian Indonesia
Kenapa Harga BBM Indonesia Government Spending
Dapat Naik? 5
(2001 = 1)
1. Harga minyak
4
dunia naik
2. Subsidi 3
membengkak
3. Indonesia Net 2
Impotir minyak
1
MoF Indonesia
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Govt Expenditures Subsidies Oil Subsidies
20

21. Economic Challenges

22. Perekonomian Indonesia
Dampak Kenaikan USD/IDR & Car Sales
12,000 90,000
BBM & TDL:
1. Inflasi 6 – 7%
2. Defisit 2.2% PDB 11,000 75,000
3. BI Rate 5.75 – 6%
4. USD/IDR 9,100 10,000 60,000
5. 10Y Yield 6.5 - 7%
9,000 45,000
Bloomberg; Gaikindo
8,000 30,000
Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11
USD/IDR Indonesia Car Sales - rhs

23. Economic Data and FX Correlation - IDR
% USD/IDR & Overnight Rate Inflation Adjusted 1. Bank Central dapat
5 12,500
menaikkan suku bunga dan/
4 atau mengendalikan
11,600
3 pertumbuhan kredit
2
10,700 2. Tambahan subsidi BBM dapat
mengendalikan inflasi tapi
1
9,800
berakibat anggaran defisit
0
3. Inflasi dampak negatif
8,900
-1 temporary sedangkan defisit
Bloomberg
-2 8,000 dampak negatif long term
Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12
Spread IDR O/N Depo & Inflation USD/IDR - rhs

24. Ekspektasi Nilai Tukar 2012
CIMB KL Research

25. Main Issues
1. China and Europe economic growth slow
2. US economic growth accelerates
3. Inflation slows in the short term but accelerates in the long term
4. Expansionary monetary policies
5. Euro debt problem is a major threat for global economy
6. Asia Pacific growth in 2012 is quite strong but weaker than 2011
7. Stable commodity price

26. Economic Data and FX Correlation - USD
x1000 US Labor & Stock Performance US Inflation and USD FX Rate %
600 14,000 90 3
400 87 2
12,500
200 84 1
0 81 0
11,000
-200 78 -1
-400 75 -2
9,500
-600 72 -3
Bloomberg Bloomberg
-800 8,000 69 -4
Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11
US Non-Farm Payrolls Dow Jones Industrial Avg - rhs USD Index USD 3M Libor Inflation Adj - rhs

27. Economic Data and FX Correlation – Other Currency
% 3-Month Libor Inflation Adj & USD/CAD Australia Rate & Consumer Confidence %
3 1.3 123 5.0
2
114 4.5
1.2
1
105 4.0
0
1.1
96 3.5
-1
-2 87 3.0
1.0
Bloomberg
-3
Bloomberg 78 2.5
-4 0.9
Mar-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12
CAD USD USD/CAD - rhs Westpac Consumer Confidence RBA Cash - rhs

28. Economic Data and FX Correlation – Other Currency
% GBP and USD 3 Month Libor Inflation Adjusted
-0.5 1.68
-1.3 1.63
-2.1 1.58
-2.9 1.53
-3.7 1.48
Bloomberg
-4.5 1.43
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
GBP USD GBP/USD - rhs

29. Economic Data and Commodity Correlation
China Manufacturing & Commodity Price x 1000 US Jobless Claims & Price of Oil $/ barrel
58 400 700 123
56
350 600 103
54
300 500 83
52
250 400 63
50
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
48 200 300 43
Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12
China PMI Manufacturing CRB Commodity Index - rhs Initial Jobless Claims Crude Oil NYMEX

30. Analysis – CRB Commodity Index
1. Downtrend
2. Strong
support:
294.50
3. Resistance:
325.91
4. GDP Growth
and risk
aversion
driven

31. Analysis – Gold Spot
1. Ranging
2. Support:
1,560
3. Resistance:
1,790
4. Inflation
driven

32. Analysis – Crude Oil (Brent)
1. Ranging
2. Currently
decreasing
3. Support:
108.50
4. Resistance:
119.70
5. Growth
driven

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35. Thank you
Research & Strategy – Treasury Dept