KTG w/ Dean Gilligan 5.11.10- “Economic Outlook”

McCombs Knowledge To Go May 11, 2010

An Economic Outlook by Dean Tom Gilligan

Knowledge To Go Webinar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Knowledge To Go Webinar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Outline for today ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Economic Forecasts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Real GDP Growth Last Eight Quarters 10Q1 09Q4 09Q2 09Q1 08Q4 08Q3 08Q2 09Q3 50 yr Avg. 3.14% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Actual Component Contributions Government expenditures Net exports Change in inventories Fixed investment Personal consumption Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data as of Q4 2009.

Mean Forecasted Real GDP Growth Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Unemployment Rate: Civilian Workforce 50 yr average unemployment rate 5.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Mean Forecasted Unemployment Rate Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Okun’s Rule of Thumb ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Actual and Forecasted Inflation 50 yr average = 4.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Research Dept. FRB of Philadelphia Actual Forecasted

Summary of Economic Forecasts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Economic Recoveries in Perspective 2008 1957 1973 1981 1953 1980 Source: National Bureau of Economic Research GDP declines are measured from peak real GDP to trough GDP GDP recoveries are growth over subsequent 4 quarters

Evidence of Economic Recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Why the predicted slow growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Balance Sheet of U.S. Households 2007 2008 2009 Source: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System $5.64 trillion in financial losses $4.99 trillion in real estate losses

Income of U.S. Households Source: Bureau of Economic Analysts

Why households won’t lead robust recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Recovery from Recession Induced by Financial Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Is there a “New Normal” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Energy Management and Innovation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

New Department at McCombs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Venture Management and Innovation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Scholarships ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Please Give Back to McCombs! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

KTG w/ Dean Gilligan 5.11.10- “Economic Outlook”

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KTG w/ Dean Gilligan 5.11.10- “Economic Outlook”